A recession is a period of falling economic performance that lasts several months and affects the entire economy. Businesses, investors, and government officials monitor a variety of economic indicators that can help anticipate or confirm the onset of recessions, but the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the one who officially declares them. To […]
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GDP is significant because it provides information on the size and performance of an economy. The pace of increase in real GDP is frequently used as a gauge of the economy’s overall health. An increase in real GDP is viewed as a sign that the economy is performing well in general. Why are GDP and
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Following a recession, economic recovery entails reallocating resources and personnel from failed enterprises and investments to new jobs and uses. After the recession, the economy recovers and enters a new expansionary business cycle phase. Leading indicators, such as the stock market, retail sales, and new business start-ups, frequently rise ahead of a rebound. Government measures
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The rate of inflation in January 2022 is 13.9 percent. In January 2022, the CPI reported a year-over-year inflation rate of 13.9 percent (Figure 1). This rate of inflation for January 2022 is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from January 2021 to January 2022 during a twelve-month period. What is a
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Inflation is the rate at which the price of goods and services in a given economy rises. Inflation occurs when prices rise as manufacturing expenses, such as raw materials and wages, rise. Inflation can result from an increase in demand for products and services, as people are ready to pay more for them. Some businesses
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Debt is another effect of inflation on the housing market and real estate investing. People don’t borrow as much when inflation rises, making money more expensive to borrow; in certain cases, they don’t borrow at all. As a result, fewer mortgage-financed property purchases occur, potentially flattening economic growth. What impact will inflation have on the
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What does it mean when someone says “transitory inflation”? In some ways, this indicates that its tenure will be short enough not to have a long-term impact on economic activity and inflation expectations. If inflation expectations are raised, manufacturing costs will rise, and these higher costs will be passed on to final prices, making inflation
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Stock index futures, such as the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES), reflect expectations for a stock index’s price at a later date, based on dividends and interest rates. Index futures are two-party agreements that are considered a zero-sum game because when one party wins, the other loses, and there is no net wealth transfer. While
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Futures are financial derivatives that bind the parties to trade an item at a fixed price and date in the future. Regardless of the prevailing market price at the expiration date, the buyer or seller must purchase or sell the underlying asset at the predetermined price. What exactly are stock market futures? Futures contracts that
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A comprehensive gauge of economic activity in the United States. The value of final products and services produced in the United States is measured by GDP (without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them). GDP changes are the most widely used metric of a country’s overall economic health. What is
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