- Municipal bonds were one of the most stable fixed income asset classes in 2021, with positive returns and minimal volatility across a wide range of credit and maturity.
- New issuance slightly exceeded the record set in 2020, but supply was quickly absorbed by surprisingly continuous fund inflows.
- Record state and local revenues, stimulus spending, minimal defaults, and idiosyncratic strength helped credit outperform by the largest margin in more than a decade.
Despite substantially higher interest rates, municipal bonds kept their value throughout 2021, generating among of the highest relative returns among fixed income assets. The asset class is poised for a great technical and fundamental year in 2022. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) appears to be refocusing on fighting inflation, which could create headwinds for fixed income in the near term.
In 2021, are municipal bonds a decent investment?
- Municipal bond interest is tax-free in the United States, however there may be state or local taxes, or both.
- Be aware that if you receive Social Security, your bond interest will be recognized as income when determining your Social Security taxable amount. This could result in you owing more money.
- Municipal bond interest rates are often lower than corporate bond interest rates. You must decide which deal offers the best genuine return.
- On the bright side, compared to practically any other investment, highly-rated municipal bonds are often relatively safe. The default rate is quite low.
- Interest rate risk exists with any bond. You’ll be stuck with a bad performer if your money is locked up for 10 or 20 years and interest rates climb.
What is the average yield on tax-exempt municipal bonds?
The top five municipal bond funds are ranked by their one-year trailing total return (TTM) as of the market close on December 10, 2021. The funds were chosen from a collection of funds that are open to new investors, need a $1,000 minimum initial investment, and have at least $50 million in assets under management (AUM). The first four funds are all Morningstar-rated “Over the last year, the “High Yield Muni” category has averaged a total return of 6.0 percent. The last fund is owned by the “Muni National Intermediate” with a total return of 1.9 percent throughout the same time period.
Is it wise to invest in municipal bonds in 2022?
The municipal market enters 2022 with a strong credit foundation and a favorable technical environment. However, the rate of credit improvement is expected to decelerate in 2022, and weaker demand and greater bond supply are more likely in 2022 than in 2021.
Low default rates, an upward ratings bias, substantial revenue growth, extensive federal backing, and recovering pension funds characterize the credit market. The credit issues presented by the Omicron version are doable. However, given emerging risks such as climate change, inflation, labor shortages, disruptions in public schools, a more entrenched remote work culture, and a return to a less reliable federal funding environment, the favorable credit environment could deteriorate later in the year, especially if Republicans retake the House or Senate in the November 2022 midterm elections.
In terms of market technicals, the year 2021 was marked by robust municipal bond fund inflows (demand) and limited supply growth. In 2021, strong inflows combined with a restricted supply of tax-exempt bonds resulted in historically low ratios and narrow credit spreads.
In 2022, we don’t expect any notable changes in ratios or spreads. Higher tax rates are still being debated in Congress, and the increased money supply is unlikely to grow significantly. If the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises rates as expected, issuers continue to see value in tax-exempt refundings and taxable advance refundings, and the market endures bouts of outflows and weak demand, periods of somewhat reduced demand and greater supply are possible. In short maturities, we prefer assuming a little more credit risk and opportunistic buying if ratios or spreads widen.
Opportunity cost
Municipal bonds’ tax advantages aren’t as valuable if you’re in a lower tax band as they are if you’re in a higher tax bracket.
If that’s the case, you could be better off putting your money into alternative investments for a larger return.
They may not be liquid
If you need money quickly, you should be aware that municipal bonds may have liquidity problems.
You might not be able to find an active market for your bonds, which means you won’t be able to sell them when you want at the price you want.
Why are municipal bonds in decline?
Some economists predict a reduction in muni demand this year due to a predicted slowing in household savings, which grew during the pandemic, particularly among the wealthy. The demand for tax-exempt debt has long outstripped annual issuance.
What will happen to bonds in 2022?
- Bond markets had a terrible year in 2021, but historically, bond markets have rarely had two years of negative returns in a row.
- In 2022, the Federal Reserve is expected to start rising interest rates, which might lead to higher bond yields and lower bond prices.
- Most bond portfolios will be unaffected by the Fed’s activities, but the precise scope and timing of rate hikes are unknown.
- Professional investment managers have the research resources and investment knowledge needed to find opportunities and manage the risks associated with higher-yielding securities if you’re looking for higher yields.
The year 2021 will not be remembered as a breakthrough year for bonds. Following several years of good returns, the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, as well as several mutual funds and ETFs that own high-quality corporate bonds, are expected to generate negative returns this year. However, history shows that bond markets rarely have multiple weak years in a succession, and there are reasons for bond investors to be optimistic that things will get better in 2022.
What is the bond market’s outlook for 2022?
The rate differential between five-year Treasury notes and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, is measured by this indicator. This figure is close to the Federal Reserve’s own estimates of 2.6 percent for 2022 and 2.3 percent for the following year.
Will bonds be successful in 2022?
If you know interest rates are going up, buying bonds after they go up is a good idea. You buy a 2.8 percent-yielding bond to prevent the -5.2 percent loss. In 2022, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates three to four times, totaling up to 1%. The Fed, on the other hand, can have a direct impact on these bonds through bond transactions.
Are municipal bond fund capital gains taxable?
Residents of the issuing state are generally excluded from federal and state taxes on income earned from municipal bonds. While interest income is tax-free, any capital gains delivered to the investor are taxable.