The contract’s value is determined by the value of the underlying asset. The stock price is multiplied by the number of units in the contract to compute futures. To trade futures, investors must pay a margin, which is typically 10% of the contract’s value but can be as high as 20%. If the market swings in the opposite direction of the position, the margin serves as collateral.
If the price of a futures contract lowers before the expiration date, traders who sell it profit. To settle the futures contract, the buyer will have to pay the price specified in the contract. If the price of a futures contract has declined in value, the buyer will effectively pay more than the market price to settle the deal.
On the other side, if the futures price rises before the contract’s expiration date, the seller would lose money because they agreed to sell the futures at a lower price when the contract was signed. When the price rises before the expiration date, buyers profit. The difference between what they committed to pay under the futures contract agreement and the true market value of those futures currently is their profit.
Tip: Sellers of futures contracts profit if the underlying asset’s price falls before the expiration date, while buyers win if the price rises before the expiration date.
How are futures pricing determined?
The futures pricing formula deserved its own discussion for a reason. Various types of traders can be found in the futures trading spectrum: some are intuitive traders who make judgments based on gut instincts, while others are technical traders who follow the pricing formula. True, successful futures trading necessitates skills, knowledge, and experience, but before you get started, you’ll need a good grasp of the pricing formula to figure out how to navigate the waters.
So, where does the price of futures come from? The cost of the underlying asset determines the futures price, which moves in lockstep with it. Futures prices will rise if the price of the underlying increases, and will fall if the price of the underlying falls. However, the value of the underlying asset is not necessarily equal. They can be traded on the market for a variety of prices. The spot price of an asset, for example, may differ from its future price. Spot-Future parity is the name given to this price gap. So, what is it that causes the prices to fluctuate over time? Interest rates, dividends, and the amount of time until they expire are all factors to consider. These elements are factored into the futures pricing algorithm. It’s a mathematical description of how the price of futures changes as one or more market variables change.
In an ideal scenario, a risk-free rate is what you can earn throughout the year. A risk-free rate is exemplified by a Treasury note. For a period of two or three months until the futures expire, it can be adjusted accordingly. As a result of the change, the formula now reads:
Let’s have a look at an example. We’ll use the following values as a starting point for our calculations.
We’re presuming the corporation isn’t paying a dividend on it, so we’ve set the value to zero. However, if a dividend is paid, it will be taken into account in the formula.
The ‘fair value’ of a futures contract is calculated using this formula. Taxes, transaction fees, margin, and other factors contribute to the gap between fair value and market price. You may compute a fair value for any expiration days using this formula.
How is the futures basis determined?
The difference between the cash price and the nearest (nearest to expiration) futures contract is commonly used to compute basis. In June, for example, the wheat basis would be computed by subtracting the current cash price from the price of the July futures contract.
How are commodity futures calculated?
The following formula can be used to compute commodity futures prices: Add storage costs to the commodity’s current price. Multiply the result by Euler’s number (2.718281828), which is equal to the risk-free interest rate multiplied by the maturity time.
What causes the price of futures to rise?
Assume that excellent news arrives overnight from abroad, such as a central bank cutting interest rates or a country reporting stronger-than-expected GDP growth. Local equities markets are likely to climb, and investors may expect a higher U.S. market as well. The price of index futures will rise if they buy them. Nobody will be able to counterbalance the buying demand even if the futures price exceeds fair value since index arbitrageurs are sitting on the sidelines until the U.S. stock market opens. The index arbitrageurs, on the other hand, will execute whatever trades are necessary to bring the index futures price back in line as soon as the New York Stock Exchange opensin this case, purchasing component stocks and selling index futures.
How do you make money using futures?
Futures are traded on margin, with investors paying as little as ten percent of the contract’s value to possess it and control the right to sell it until it expires. Profits are magnified by margins, but they also allow you to gamble money you can’t afford to lose. It’s important to remember that trading on margin entails a unique set of risks. Choose contracts that expire after the period in which you estimate prices to peak. If you buy a March futures contract in January but don’t expect the commodity to achieve its peak value until April, the contract is worthless. Even if April futures aren’t available, a May contract is preferable because you can sell it before it expires while still waiting for the commodity’s price to climb.
How do you make money trading futures?
The value of futures and options is determined by the underlying, which might be a stock, index, bond, or commodity. For the time being, let’s concentrate on stock and index futures and options. The value of a stock future/option is derived from a stock such as RIL or Tata Steel. The value of an index future/option is derived from an underlying index such as the Nifty or the Bank Nifty. F&O volumes in India have increased dramatically in recent years, accounting for 90 percent of total volumes in the industry.
F&O, on the other hand, has its own set of myths and fallacies. Most novice traders consider F&O to be a less expensive way to trade stocks. Legendary investors like Warren Buffett, on the other hand, have referred to derivatives as “weapons of mass destruction.” The truth, of course, lies somewhere in the middle. It is feasible to benefit from online F&O trading if you master the fundamentals.
1. Use F&O as a hedge rather than a trade.
This is the fundamental principle of futures and options trading. F&O is a margin business, which is one of the reasons retail investors get excited about it. For example, you can buy Nifty worth Rs.10 lakhs for just Rs.3 lakhs if you pay a margin of Rs.3 lakhs. This allows you to double your money by three. However, this is a slightly risky approach to employ because, just as gains can expand, losses in futures might as well. You’ll also need enough cash to cover mark-to-market (MTM) margins if the market moves against you.
To hedge, take a closer look at futures and options. Let’s take a closer look at this. If you bought Reliance at Rs.1100 and the CMP is Rs.1300, you may sell the futures at Rs.1305 and lock in a profit of Rs.205 by selling the futures at Rs.1305 (futures generally price at a premium to spot). Now, regardless of how the price moves, you’ve locked in a profit of Rs.205. Similarly, if you own SBI at Rs.350 and are concerned about a potential fall, you can hedge by purchasing a Rs.340 put option at Rs.2. You are now insured for less than Rs.338. You record profits on the put option if the price of SBI falls to Rs.320, lowering the cost of owning the shares. By getting the philosophy correct, you can make F&O operate effectively!
2. Make sure the trade structure is correct, including strike, premium, expiration, and risk.
Another reason why traders make mistakes with their F&O deals is because the trade is poorly structured. What do we mean when we say a F&O trade is structured?
Check for dividends and see if the cost of carry is beneficial before buying or selling futures.
When it comes to trading futures and options, the expiration date is quite important. You can choose between near-month and far-month expiration dates. While long-term contracts can save you money, they are illiquid and difficult to exit.
In terms of possibilities, which strike should you choose? Options that are deep OTM (out of the money) may appear to be cheap, but they are usually worthless. Deep ITM (in the money) options are similar to futures in that they provide no additional value.
Get a handle on how to value alternatives. Based on the Black and Scholes model, your trading terminal includes an interface to determine if the option is undervalued or overvalued. Make careful you acquire low-cost options and sell high-cost options.
3. Pay attention to trade management, such as stop-loss and profit targets.
The last item to consider is how you handle the trade, which is very important when trading F&O. This is why:
The first step is to put a stop loss in place for all F&O deals. Keep in mind that this is a leveraged enterprise, thus a stop loss is essential. Stop losses should ideally be included into the trade rather than added later. Above all, Online Trading requires strict discipline.
Profit is defined as the amount of money you book in F&O; everything else is just book profits. Try to churn your money quickly since you can make more money in the F&O trading company if you churn your capital more aggressively.
Keep track of the greatest amount of money you’re willing to lose and adjust your strategy accordingly. Never put more money on the table than you can afford to lose. Above all, stay out of markets that are beyond your knowledge.
F&O is a fantastic online trading solution. To be lucrative in F&O, you only need to take care of the three building components.
What is the formula for calculating futures margin?
Let’s go back to the forwards market scenario we used earlier (chapter 1). In the example given, ABC Jewelers agrees to buy 15 kilograms of gold from XYZ Gold Dealers for Rs.2450/- per gram in three months.
We can see that any change in the gold price will have a negative impact on ABC or XYZ. If the price of gold rises, XYZ will lose money, whereas ABC will profit. Similarly, if the price of gold falls, ABC loses money while XYZ profits. Furthermore, we are aware that a forwards agreement is based on a gentleman’s word. Consider a scenario in which the price of gold has skyrocketed, putting XYZ Gold Dealers in a tight predicament. Clearly, XYZ can claim that they are unable to make the required payment and hence default on the contract. Obviously, what follows will be a long and arduous legal battle, but that is outside our scope. It’s worth noting that the scope and motivation to default in a forwards agreement are both very great.
The default angle is carefully and intelligently dealt with in the futures market because it is an improvisation over the forwards market. Here’s where the margins come into play.
There is no regulation in the forwards market. The agreement is reached between two parties with no third party overseeing their transaction. In the futures market, however, all trades must pass via an exchange. In exchange, the exchange assumes responsibility for ensuring that all trades are settled. When I say ‘onus of guaranteeing,’ I mean that the exchange is responsible for ensuring that you receive your money if you are eligible. This also entails ensuring that the money is collected from the person that is obligated to pay.
So, how does the exchange ensure that everything runs smoothly? They accomplish this by employing
In the last chapter, we briefly discussed the idea of Margin. The concepts of margin and M2M must be understood in tandem in order to completely comprehend futures trading dynamics. However, because it’s impossible to describe both concepts at the same time, I’d want to take a break from margins and move on to M2M. We’ll learn everything there is to know about M2M before returning to margins. After that, we’ll revisit margins while keeping M2M in mind. However, before we go on to M2M, I’d like you to bear the following factors in mind:
- Margin is banned in your trading account at the time you start a futures position.
- The first margin consists of two parts: the SPAN margin and the Exposure Margin.
- The initial margin in your trading account will be frozen for the number of days you choose to hold the futures contract.
- The initial margin fluctuates on a daily basis, as it is determined by the futures price.
- The lot size is set, but the price of futures fluctuates every day. As a result, the margins change on a daily basis.
So, for the time being, remember only these points. We’ll go ahead and learn about M2M before returning to margins to finish this chapter.
What is the basis for cash futures?
The difference between the cash price of a commodity and the futures price of that commodity is known as basis in the futures market. The relationship between cash and futures prices influences the value of the contracts used in hedging, thus it’s crucial for portfolio managers and traders to understand. However, the notion can be a little hazy at times because there are gaps between spot and relative prices until the next contract expires, so the basis isn’t always true.
What is the significance of Basis in futures?
The basis is sometimes defined as the difference between a security’s spot price and the corresponding price of the security’s shortest-maturity futures contract. The difference between the derivative futures contract and the matching spot price of a certain security is referred to as basis. The basis is crucial since it has tax consequences and represents a product’s pricing.
What is the risk of future basis?
The basis is the difference between futures and spot prices, and it is frequently considered to shrink at a steady rate when advising a hedging strategy. When the price of a futures contract does not have a predictable relationship with the spot price of the item being hedged, it is referred to as basis risk.