Futures are financial derivatives whose value is mostly determined by the prices of the underlying equities or indices. However, the pricing is not as straightforward. In both the cash and derivatives segments, there is still a price gap between the underlying asset. This distinction can be explained using two basic futures contract pricing models. These will allow you to forecast how a stock futures or index futures contract’s price will move. These are the following:
Keep in mind, however, that these models are only a foundation for understanding futures prices. However, understanding these theories provides you a sense of what to expect from a stock or index’s futures price.
What is the Cost of Carry model
Markets are assumed to be perfectly efficient in the Cost of Carry Model. This signifies that the cash and futures prices are same. As a result, arbitrage the practice of traders taking advantage of price disparities in two or more markets is no longer an option.
Investors are unconcerned about spot and futures market pricing while trading in the underlying asset when there is no chance for arbitrage. This is due to the fact that their final profits are the same.
For simplicity’s sake, the model also assumes that the contract is kept until maturity, allowing for a fair price to be determined.
In other words, the price of a futures contract (FP) is equal to the spot price (SP) plus the net cost of carrying the asset until the futures contract’s maturity date.
The cost of retaining the asset until the futures contract matures is referred to as Carry Cost. This might include storage fees, interest paid on the asset while it was being acquired and held, and financing fees, among other things. Any income gained from the asset while it is held, such as dividends and bonuses, is referred to as carry return. The Carry Return is used to calculate an index’s futures price. It refers to the index’s average returns in the cash market during the holding period. The net cost of carry is the sum of these two.
The bottom line of this pricing model is that holding a stake in the cash market might have advantages and disadvantages. A futures contract’s price reflects these expenses or benefits in order to charge or reward you appropriately.
What is the Expectancy model of Futures pricing
According to the Expectancy Model of futures pricing, the futures price of an asset is essentially what the asset’s spot price is expected to be in the future.
This indicates that if the overall market mood is favorable to a higher price for an asset in the future, the asset’s futures price will be favorable.
Similarly, a surge in pessimistic sentiment in the market would result in a drop in the asset’s futures price.
This model, unlike the Cost of Carry model, thinks that there is no relationship between the asset’s current spot price and its futures price. What matters is what the asset’s future spot price is predicted to be.
This is also why many stock market participants use futures price patterns to forecast price fluctuations in the cash market.
What is Basis?
On a practical level, you will see that the futures price and the spot price are frequently different. This distinction is referred to as the basis.
When an asset’s futures price is higher than its spot price, the basis for the asset is negative. This indicates that the markets will likely rise in the future.
If, on the other hand, the asset’s spot price is higher than its futures price, the asset’s basis is positive. This portends a market correction in the near future.
How is the price of a futures contract determined?
- Derivatives are financial contracts whose prices are derived from an underlying asset or security and are used for a number of purposes.
- The fair value or price of a derivative is computed differently depending on the type of derivative.
- Futures contracts are priced using the spot price plus a basis, whereas options are valued using the time to expiration, volatility, and strike price.
- Swaps are valued by equating the present value of a fixed and variable stream of cash flows throughout the contract’s maturity period.
What is the value of a futures contract?
The base market contract for S&P 500 futures trading is the standard-sized contract. It is valued by increasing the value of the S&P 500 by $250. For example, if the S&P 500 is at 2,500, a futures contract’s market value is 2,500 x $250 (or $625,000).
What is the purpose of futures contracts?
Futures are financial derivatives that bind the parties to trade an item at a fixed price and date in the future. Regardless of the prevailing market price at the expiration date, the buyer or seller must purchase or sell the underlying asset at the predetermined price.
How long may a futures contract be held?
A demat account is not required for futures and options trades; instead, a brokerage account is required. Opening an account with a broker who will trade on your behalf is the best option.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) both provide derivatives trading (BSE). Over 100 equities and nine key indices are available for futures and options trading on the NSE. Futures tend to move faster than options since they are the derivative with the most leverage. A futures contract’s maximum period is three months. Traders often pay only the difference between the agreed-upon contract price and the market price in a typical futures and options transaction. As a result, you will not be required to pay the actual price of the underlying item.
Commodity exchanges such as the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) and the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are two of the most popular venues for futures and options trading (MCX). The extreme volatility of commodity markets is the rationale for substantial derivative trading. Commodity prices can swing drastically, and futures and options allow traders to hedge against a future drop.
Simultaneously, it enables speculators to profit from commodities that are predicted to increase in value in the future. While the typical investor may trade futures and options in the stock market, commodities training takes a little more knowledge.
Is it possible to sell futures before they expire?
Purchasing and selling futures contracts is similar to purchasing and selling a number of units of a stock on the open market, but without the need to take immediate delivery.
The level of the index moves up and down in index futures as well, reflecting the movement of a stock price. As a result, you can trade index and stock contracts in the same way that you would trade stocks.
How to buy futures contracts
A trading account is one of the requirements for stock market trading, whether in the derivatives area or not.
Another obvious prerequisite is money. The derivatives market, on the other hand, has a slightly different criteria.
Unless you are a day trader using margin trading, you must pay the total value of the shares purchased while buying in the cash section.
You must pay the exchange or clearing house this money in advance.
‘Margin Money’ is the term for this upfront payment. It aids in the reduction of the exchange’s risk and the preservation of the market’s integrity.
You can buy a futures contract once you have these requirements. Simply make an order with your broker, indicating the contract’s characteristics such as theScrip, expiration month, contract size, and so on. After that, give the margin money to the broker, who will contact the exchange on your behalf.
If you’re a buyer, the exchange will find you a seller, and if you’re a selling, the exchange will find you a buyer.
How to settle futures contracts
You do not give or receive immediate delivery of the assets when you exchange futures contracts. This is referred to as contract settlement. This normally occurs on the contract’s expiration date. Many traders, on the other hand, prefer to settle before the contract expires.
In this situation, the futures contract (buy or sale) is settled at the underlying asset’s closing price on the contract’s expiration date.
For instance, suppose you bought a single futures contract of ABC Ltd. with 200 shares that expires in July. The ABC stake was worth Rs 1,000 at the time. If ABC Ltd. closes at Rs 1,050 in the cash market on the last Thursday of July, your futures contract will be settled at that price. You’ll make a profit of Rs 50 per share (the settlement price of Rs 1,050 minus your cost price of Rs 1,000), for a total profit of Rs 10,000. (Rs 50 x 200 shares). This figure is adjusted to reflect the margins you’ve kept in your account. If you make a profit, it will be added to the margins you’ve set aside. The amount of your loss will be removed from your margins if you make a loss.
A futures contract does not have to be held until its expiration date. Most traders, in practice, exit their contracts before they expire. Any profits or losses you’ve made are offset against the margins you’ve placed up until the day you opt to end your contract. You can either sell your contract or buy an opposing contract that will nullify the arrangement. Once you’ve squared off your position, your profits or losses will be refunded to you or collected from you, once they’ve been adjusted for the margins you’ve deposited.
Cash is used to settle index futures contracts. This can be done before or after the contract’s expiration date.
When closing a futures index contract on expiry, the price at which the contract is settled is the closing value of the index on the expiry date. You benefit if the index closes higher on the expiration date than when you acquired your contracts, and vice versa. Your gain or loss is adjusted against the margin money you’ve already put to arrive at a settlement.
For example, suppose you buy two Nifty futures contracts at 6560 on July 7. This contract will end on the 27th of July, which is the last Thursday of the contract series. If you leave India for a vacation and are unable to sell the future until the day of expiry, the exchange will settle your contract at the Nifty’s closing price on the day of expiry. So, if the Nifty is at 6550 on July 27, you will have lost Rs 1,000 (difference in index levels – 10 x2 lots x 50 unit lot size). Your broker will deduct the money from your margin account and submit it to the stock exchange. The exchange will then send it to the seller, who will profit from it. If the Nifty ends at 6570, though, you will have gained a Rs 1,000 profit. Your account will be updated as a result of this.
If you anticipate the market will rise before the end of your contract period and that you will get a higher price for it at a later date, you can choose to exit your index futures contract before it expires. This type of departure is totally dependent on your market judgment and investment horizons. The exchange will also settle this by comparing the index values at the time you acquired and when you exited the contract. Your margin account will be credited or debited depending on the profit or loss.
What are the payoffs and charges on Futures contracts
Individual individuals and the investing community as a whole benefit from a futures market in a variety of ways.
It does not, however, come for free. Margin payments are the primary source of profit for traders and investors in derivatives trading.
There are various types of margins. These are normally set as a percentage of the entire value of the derivative contracts by the exchange. You can’t purchase or sell in the futures market without margins.
What is the formula for calculating notional value?
The notional value of a security is the whole amount of the underlying asset at the current market price. The notional value separates the amount of money invested from the total amount of money involved in the transaction. Multiplying the units in one contract by the current price yields the notional value.
Is futures trading riskier than stock trading?
What Are Futures and How Do They Work? Futures are no riskier than other types of assets such as stocks, bonds, or currencies in and of themselves. This is because the values of futures, whether they are futures on stocks, bonds, or currencies, are determined by the prices of the underlying assets.
Is it possible to day trade futures?
The method of buying and selling a futures contract on the same day without maintaining open long or short positions overnight is referred to as day trading. The duration of day transactions varies. They can last a few minutes or the entirety of a trading session.