While trading oil futures may appear to be a straightforward way to make money in the market, it is a risky investment choice only fit for a small number of market participants. The following people are the most likely to engage in this form of trading:
Institutional Investors
In the oil futures market, institutional investors such as hedge funds, mutual funds, and banks are among the most active traders. These investors have the in-depth knowledge and analytical abilities needed to succeed.
Furthermore, they have the financial resources and risk tolerance to bear the shock of a bad trade. The average individual investor lacks the risk tolerance required to trade these assets successfully.
High-Net-Worth Investors
High-net-worth investors, like institutional investors, spend a lot of time in the market and have a high risk tolerance due to their awareness of finance’s complexity.
As a result, oil futures are frequently included in a well-diversified portfolio held by a high-net-worth individual.
Oil Companies
Oil corporations have a history of buying futures from one another in order to get oil at a lower price. If their estimate was correct, the oil business will be able to profit after the contract ends by selling the oil at a higher price once it’s delivered.
Oil firms have an extraordinary capacity to anticipate the future of the commodity’s price due to their intimate knowledge of the market.
Heavy Consumers of Oil
Airlines, transportation companies, refineries, and a slew of other businesses are heavily reliant on oil, with lower earnings when prices are high and lower costs when prices are low.
As a result, these corporations frequently buy oil futures to try to keep costs stable when the commodity’s price is rising.
Risk-Tolerant Investors
Finally, while oil futures aren’t for everyone, young investors with a strong appetite for risk frequently turn to the futures market in the hopes of making a fortune.
It’s fine to dabble in a high-risk, high-return commodity now and then, but high-risk assets like oil futures should never account for more than 5% of your total portfolio value.
What happens if you invest in oil futures?
Oil futures are agreements to exchange a specific amount of oil at a specific price on a specific date. They’re traded on exchanges and reflect distinct forms of oil demand. Oil futures are a popular way to purchase and sell oil since they allow you to trade increasing and decreasing prices.
Will oil prices continue to grow or fall?
Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $82.87 per barrel in 2022, according to the EIA. WTI is expected to average $79.35 per barrel in 2022, up from $68.21 per barrel in 2021. Oil prices are rising due to a drop in supply and a rise in demand.
Is now a good time to invest in oil?
You could think that oil production and demand peaked a long time ago if you read the headlines in most newspapers, especially with the rise of solar, wind, biodiesel, and other green alternatives. The influential “Club of Rome” coalition of businessmen, scientists, economists, and government officials propagated the concept of “peak oil,” which proved out to be completely incorrect.
The Limits to Expansion was published in 1972, and it was an extremely negative analysis based on an MIT computer simulation of economic and population growth, as well as scarce resources. According to the estimate, all known petroleum reserves would be depleted by the end of the century if consumption levels remained constant. Gas and petroleum would be extinct by 1982 if consumption rates continued to rise.
What happened was that we improved our ability to locate and extract oil and gas! This was owing to advancements in technology as well as fresh discoveries. We now produce 28 percent more oil in the United States than we did at the previously acknowledged “peak oil production” era of 1970. Today, the United States leads the world in oil production, significantly outperforming Saudi Arabia, which is in second place.
Myth #2: Alternative energy is where all the opportunity is!
The truth is that global energy demand is continually increasing, and this demand is being satisfied by both alternative energy and oil and gas expansion. We anticipate that energy will be a “both/and” game for years to come, rather than a “either/or” issue.
Alternative energy is a burgeoning business with a lot of room for expansion. For environmental grounds, it is convincing. It also comes with a lot of danger and expense, some of which has been borne by taxpayers.
Some green energy technologies have proven to be successful. Solar and wind energy are becoming more affordable. Solar energy has proven to be so efficient that solar energy storage has become a profitable industry. Electric vehicles are becoming increasingly popular and attractive, which leads to the next urban legend:
Myth #3: Electric vehicles have decreased the demand for gasoline.
While energy supplies are diversifying in the United States and around the world, which is a positive trend, demand for oil and gas has not diminished. Oil consumption continues to rise, particularly in China and India, as well as in the United States. Since 2006, demand for oil has consistently climbed, as shown in the graph below.
Despite the rise of electric vehicles, demand for all types of energy has only increased as a result of population growth and changing lifestyles. Even as more people purchase electric vehicles, there will always be a demand for oil due to the use of plastics (which are manufactured from petroleum) and the use of diesel in trucks and heavy equipment. (The eia.gov chart below does not include the most recent quarter.)
Myth #4 Oil companies and investors can’t make money at $35 an barrel!
Companies in Texas, for example, are profitable even at $18 per barrel. However, for the shale business to be successful, higher barrel prices are required. We do not advise you to invest in shale companies. Even at current barrel pricing, however, there is a big potential!
Wouldn’t the stock market be the best way to have exposure to oil and gas?
Most likely not. Investments receive large tax benefits in order to encourage the country toward energy independence. This means that drilling costs, from equipment to labor, are tax deductible up to 100% in the oil and gas industry. Oil and gas investments are a great way to offset income or gains from other sources. For many people, this makes oil an excellent investment!
Oil and gas can be purchased in a variety of ways, but stocks are not one of them. Let’s take a look at three possibilities and some of the benefits and drawbacks of each:
Stocks and Mutual Funds
ETFs, mutual funds, and large and small-cap equities are all examples of this. Because most gains are re-invested, stocks offer limited upside for shareholders. Oil spills and other unfavorable headlines can have a severe impact on large corporations and their stock prices.
On the plus side, an oil-and-gas mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) provides some risk protection through company diversification. If you don’t have a large chunk of money to invest, the stock market can be your only alternative.
Unfortunately, shareholders will miss out on one of the most significant advantages of investing directly: tax deductions!
Equity Direct Participation Programs
The most profitable approach for most investors to participate in oil and gas is through an equity investment or a Direct Participation Project (DPP). A DPP is a non-traded pooled investment that works over several years and provides investors with access to the cash flow and tax benefits of an energy business. (Real estate DPPs, like oil and gas DPPs, operate in a similar manner and, like oil and gas DPPs, can engage in 1031 tax exchanges.)
A DPP is primarily used to fund the development of numerous wells in the oil and gas industry. The benefit to the investor in the first year is the tax write-off, which can be up to 85% of the investment. When the drilling is finished after about a year, investors begin to receive a monthly dividend. Depending on the success of the drilling, the returns can range from very low to very high. The first 15% of this income is tax-free, while the rest is regarded as ordinary income. (Consult a tax advisor.)
The well bundle is normally sold to a larger oil company after around 5 years. The proceeds from the sale are subsequently allocated proportionately among the investors, and the profits are taxed as capital gains.
Asset class diversification, great profit potential, and large tax advantages are all advantages of direct investments in oil and gas. Multi-well packages and skilled operators can help to limit risk to some extent. Investors, on the other hand, must be mindful of the drawbacks. Oil and gas ventures are inherently illiquid and speculative. Returns can be substantial, but they can also be non-existent. Oil prices have an impact on profitability. Furthermore, accredited investors are the only ones who can invest in DPPs.
Mineral Rights Leases
This is not an oil and gas investment, but rather a private financial agreement that works similarly to a real estate bridge loan. Investors are paid monthly cash flow based on contractually agreed-upon returns. The average investment time span is one to three years. Mineral rights leases demand lump sum payments to participate.
In this podcast with Kim Butler, “Investing in Mining Rights,” you’ll learn more about mineral rights leases.
Is Oil a Good Investment for You?
Do you have oil and gas in your portfolio? Direct investments in energy projects can provide significant and almost immediate tax benefits, as well as diversify investments and potentially increase returns. Oil and gas investments are worth considering as part of your overall plan because of these advantages.
For some, oil and gas may be a smart investment, but for others, it is not. There are requirements to be met, risks to be handled, and decisions to be made. The best investments in this field are only available to accredited investors. Some investors choose to put their money into greener options, while others are drawn to the oil and gas industry’s proven track record of earnings.
You might have other concerns about investing in oil and gas. We most likely know the answers! Partners for Prosperity focuses on wealth accumulation outside of the stock market. To learn more about hedging risk, boosting cash flow, and producing wealth that is not reliant on Wall Street dangers, schedule a complimentary appointment now!
What is the duration of an oil futures contract?
You’re not going to the store and buying a couple thousand 55-gallon barrels of crude oil to store in your backyard, are you? That’s just not feasible.
Crude oil futures contracts were created to allow oil corporations and companies that consume a lot of oil to plan delivery of the commodity at a set price and date. Today, these contracts are also traded between speculators who expect to profit from the commodity’s volatility.
On the futures market, these derivatives are a hot commodity, with the potential to yield large gains in a short period of time. Unfortunately, when bad decisions are made, the consequences can be just as severe.
The majority of oil futures contracts include the purchase and sale of 1,000 barrels of crude oil. When a contract is purchased, it stipulates that these barrels of oil will be delivered at a certain date (up to nine years away) and for a predetermined price at a predetermined date (or expiration date).
Let’s imagine you bought an oil futures contract today with a three-month expiration date; you’d be owed 1,000 barrels of oil three months from now, but you’d pay today’s price let’s say $50 per barrel as an example.
You notice that the price of oil has climbed to $51 per barrel in 30 days, indicating that your futures contract is now worth $1,000 more than you paid. If the price of oil fell to $49 per barrel, on the other hand, you would have lost $1,000.
In either case, you’ll want to sell as soon as possible when the contract expires. Individual investors and price speculators who aren’t large-scale crude oil users typically close off futures contracts well before they expire.
- You’re probably not going to be able to store 1,000 barrels of oil. You probably don’t have enough room to store 55,000 gallons of oil. If you own the contract when it expires, you’ll have to decide where to store the oil and what to do with it. Your entire investment is gone if you opt not to take ownership.
- Futures contracts lose value as they get closer to expiration. The futures market operates at a breakneck speed, with the thrill being in forecasting what will happen in a week rather than when the contract will expire. The premium paid for future value growth decreases as the contract approaches its expiration date. As a result, holding these contracts for too long will limit your prospective gains.
Pro tip: If you want to invest in oil futures, you should open an account with a broker who specializes in future contracts. When you open an account with TradeStation, you can get a $5,000 registration bonus.
To trade oil futures, how much money do you need?
The amount of money you’ll need in your account to day trade a crude oil futures contract varies depending on your futures broker, but you’ll need at least $1,000. Keep in mind that you’ll need enough funds in your account to cover any possible losses. If you don’t want to risk more than 1% of your cash on every single trade, you can limit yourself to $10 per trade.
Will oil prices rise in 2022?
The stock of Occidental Petroleum has increased by 78 percent in 2022, outpacing the 61 percent increase in oil prices so far this year.
After all, revenue increased by more than 90% in the fourth quarter of 2021, while net income increased by 238 percent. Occidental Petroleum outperformed the market in terms of earnings per share and revenue, according to Zacks Equity Research. Revenue of $8 billion exceeded Wall Street’s expectations by 11.4 percent, while adjusted EPS of $2.55 was 1.6 percent better than predicted.
Occidental, a company that sells oil, gas, and chemicals among other things, produced more than projected and reaped bigger profits. Its Oil and Gas revenues increased by 95.4 percent to $5,817 million, while its Chemical revenues increased by 59.4% to $1,575 million.
How much will oil cost in 2023?
The agency anticipated a declining Brent oil price in the second half of this year (2H2022) and into 2023 in its March edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The most recent STEO forecasted a $102 oil price in 2H2022 and a $89.50 price in 2023.
In the best of times, however, prognostication in the energy space is loaded with dangers. Recent events have made the effort much more challenging, as EIA researchers noted in a special statement released in conjunction with this month’s STEO.
Will there be a recovery for oil?
According to the EIA, oil output in the United States is predicted to average 11.9 million barrels per day in 2022. In 2022, global oil consumption is predicted to rebound to 99.5 million barrels per day, around the same level as in 2019.
How can I make a little investment in oil?
Your brokerage account is usually the best location to search if you want to invest in oil with a small amount of money. You can now buy stock without worrying about costs cutting into your investment thanks to the recent introduction of no-fee stock trades at all of the major brokerage firms.
You can buy fractional shares from some brokers if you don’t have enough money to buy a whole share.