Oil futures are agreements to exchange a specific amount of oil at a specific price on a specific date. They’re traded on exchanges and reflect distinct forms of oil demand. Oil futures are a popular way to purchase and sell oil since they allow you to trade increasing and decreasing prices.
In simple terms, what is a futures contract?
A futures contract is a legally binding agreement to buy or sell a certain commodity, asset, or security at a defined price at a future date. To simplify trading on a futures exchange, futures contracts are standardized for quality and quantity.
What is the purpose of a futures contract?
A futures contract is a legally enforceable agreement to acquire or sell a standardized asset at a defined price at a future date. Futures contracts are exchanged electronically on exchanges like the CME Group, which is the world’s largest futures exchange.
What is the duration of an oil futures contract?
You’re not going to the store and buying a couple thousand 55-gallon barrels of crude oil to store in your backyard, are you? That’s just not feasible.
Crude oil futures contracts were created to allow oil corporations and companies that consume a lot of oil to plan delivery of the commodity at a set price and date. Today, these contracts are also traded between speculators who expect to profit from the commodity’s volatility.
On the futures market, these derivatives are a hot commodity, with the potential to yield large gains in a short period of time. Unfortunately, when bad decisions are made, the consequences can be just as severe.
The majority of oil futures contracts include the purchase and sale of 1,000 barrels of crude oil. When a contract is purchased, it stipulates that these barrels of oil will be delivered at a certain date (up to nine years away) and for a predetermined price at a predetermined date (or expiration date).
Let’s imagine you bought an oil futures contract today with a three-month expiration date; you’d be owed 1,000 barrels of oil three months from now, but you’d pay today’s price let’s say $50 per barrel as an example.
You notice that the price of oil has climbed to $51 per barrel in 30 days, indicating that your futures contract is now worth $1,000 more than you paid. If the price of oil fell to $49 per barrel, on the other hand, you would have lost $1,000.
In either case, you’ll want to sell as soon as possible when the contract expires. Individual investors and price speculators who aren’t large-scale crude oil users typically close off futures contracts well before they expire.
- You’re probably not going to be able to store 1,000 barrels of oil. You probably don’t have enough room to store 55,000 gallons of oil. If you own the contract when it expires, you’ll have to decide where to store the oil and what to do with it. Your entire investment is gone if you opt not to take ownership.
- Futures contracts lose value as they get closer to expiration. The futures market operates at a breakneck speed, with the thrill being in forecasting what will happen in a week rather than when the contract will expire. The premium paid for future value growth decreases as the contract approaches its expiration date. As a result, holding these contracts for too long will limit your prospective gains.
Pro tip: If you want to invest in oil futures, you should open an account with a broker who specializes in future contracts. When you open an account with TradeStation, you can get a $5,000 registration bonus.
What if you keep a futures contract until it expires?
A futures contract’s expiration day is the date on which it will cease to exist. If you keep a contract past its expiration date, you will be obligated to buy the underlying asset. Options allow you to exercise your rights in a variety of ways. Futures do not work in this way.
Is it possible to sell futures before they expire?
Purchasing and selling futures contracts is similar to purchasing and selling a number of units of a stock on the open market, but without the need to take immediate delivery.
The level of the index moves up and down in index futures as well, reflecting the movement of a stock price. As a result, you can trade index and stock contracts in the same way that you would trade stocks.
How to buy futures contracts
A trading account is one of the requirements for stock market trading, whether in the derivatives area or not.
Another obvious prerequisite is money. The derivatives market, on the other hand, has a slightly different criteria.
Unless you are a day trader using margin trading, you must pay the total value of the shares purchased while buying in the cash section.
You must pay the exchange or clearing house this money in advance.
‘Margin Money’ is the term for this upfront payment. It aids in the reduction of the exchange’s risk and the preservation of the market’s integrity.
You can buy a futures contract once you have these requirements. Simply make an order with your broker, indicating the contract’s characteristics such as theScrip, expiration month, contract size, and so on. After that, give the margin money to the broker, who will contact the exchange on your behalf.
If you’re a buyer, the exchange will find you a seller, and if you’re a selling, the exchange will find you a buyer.
How to settle futures contracts
You do not give or receive immediate delivery of the assets when you exchange futures contracts. This is referred to as contract settlement. This normally occurs on the contract’s expiration date. Many traders, on the other hand, prefer to settle before the contract expires.
In this situation, the futures contract (buy or sale) is settled at the underlying asset’s closing price on the contract’s expiration date.
For instance, suppose you bought a single futures contract of ABC Ltd. with 200 shares that expires in July. The ABC stake was worth Rs 1,000 at the time. If ABC Ltd. closes at Rs 1,050 in the cash market on the last Thursday of July, your futures contract will be settled at that price. You’ll make a profit of Rs 50 per share (the settlement price of Rs 1,050 minus your cost price of Rs 1,000), for a total profit of Rs 10,000. (Rs 50 x 200 shares). This figure is adjusted to reflect the margins you’ve kept in your account. If you make a profit, it will be added to the margins you’ve set aside. The amount of your loss will be removed from your margins if you make a loss.
A futures contract does not have to be held until its expiration date. Most traders, in practice, exit their contracts before they expire. Any profits or losses you’ve made are offset against the margins you’ve placed up until the day you opt to end your contract. You can either sell your contract or buy an opposing contract that will nullify the arrangement. Once you’ve squared off your position, your profits or losses will be refunded to you or collected from you, once they’ve been adjusted for the margins you’ve deposited.
Cash is used to settle index futures contracts. This can be done before or after the contract’s expiration date.
When closing a futures index contract on expiry, the price at which the contract is settled is the closing value of the index on the expiry date. You benefit if the index closes higher on the expiration date than when you acquired your contracts, and vice versa. Your gain or loss is adjusted against the margin money you’ve already put to arrive at a settlement.
For example, suppose you buy two Nifty futures contracts at 6560 on July 7. This contract will end on the 27th of July, which is the last Thursday of the contract series. If you leave India for a vacation and are unable to sell the future until the day of expiry, the exchange will settle your contract at the Nifty’s closing price on the day of expiry. So, if the Nifty is at 6550 on July 27, you will have lost Rs 1,000 (difference in index levels – 10 x2 lots x 50 unit lot size). Your broker will deduct the money from your margin account and submit it to the stock exchange. The exchange will then send it to the seller, who will profit from it. If the Nifty ends at 6570, though, you will have gained a Rs 1,000 profit. Your account will be updated as a result of this.
If you anticipate the market will rise before the end of your contract period and that you will get a higher price for it at a later date, you can choose to exit your index futures contract before it expires. This type of departure is totally dependent on your market judgment and investment horizons. The exchange will also settle this by comparing the index values at the time you acquired and when you exited the contract. Your margin account will be credited or debited depending on the profit or loss.
What are the payoffs and charges on Futures contracts
Individual individuals and the investing community as a whole benefit from a futures market in a variety of ways.
It does not, however, come for free. Margin payments are the primary source of profit for traders and investors in derivatives trading.
There are various types of margins. These are normally set as a percentage of the entire value of the derivative contracts by the exchange. You can’t purchase or sell in the futures market without margins.
How can you profit from futures contracts?
Futures are traded on margin, with investors paying as little as ten percent of the contract’s value to possess it and control the right to sell it until it expires. Profits are magnified by margins, but they also allow you to gamble money you can’t afford to lose. It’s important to remember that trading on margin entails a unique set of risks. Choose contracts that expire after the period in which you estimate prices to peak. If you buy a March futures contract in January but don’t expect the commodity to achieve its peak value until April, the contract is worthless. Even if April futures aren’t available, a May contract is preferable because you can sell it before it expires while still waiting for the commodity’s price to climb.
What is the best way to price a futures contract?
Futures are financial derivatives whose value is mostly determined by the prices of the underlying equities or indices. However, the pricing is not as straightforward. In both the cash and derivatives segments, there is still a price gap between the underlying asset. This distinction can be explained using two basic futures contract pricing models. These will allow you to forecast how a stock futures or index futures contract’s price will move. These are the following:
Keep in mind, however, that these models are only a foundation for understanding futures prices. However, understanding these theories provides you a sense of what to expect from a stock or index’s futures price.
What is the Cost of Carry model
Markets are assumed to be perfectly efficient in the Cost of Carry Model. This signifies that the cash and futures prices are same. As a result, arbitrage the practice of traders taking advantage of price disparities in two or more markets is no longer an option.
Investors are unconcerned about spot and futures market pricing while trading in the underlying asset when there is no chance for arbitrage. This is due to the fact that their final profits are the same.
For simplicity’s sake, the model also assumes that the contract is kept until maturity, allowing for a fair price to be determined.
In other words, the price of a futures contract (FP) is equal to the spot price (SP) plus the net cost of carrying the asset until the futures contract’s maturity date.
The cost of retaining the asset until the futures contract matures is referred to as Carry Cost. This might include storage fees, interest paid on the asset while it was being acquired and held, and financing fees, among other things. Any income gained from the asset while it is held, such as dividends and bonuses, is referred to as carry return. The Carry Return is used to calculate an index’s futures price. It refers to the index’s average returns in the cash market during the holding period. The net cost of carry is the sum of these two.
The bottom line of this pricing model is that holding a stake in the cash market might have advantages and disadvantages. A futures contract’s price reflects these expenses or benefits in order to charge or reward you appropriately.
What is the Expectancy model of Futures pricing
According to the Expectancy Model of futures pricing, the futures price of an asset is essentially what the asset’s spot price is expected to be in the future.
This indicates that if the overall market mood is favorable to a higher price for an asset in the future, the asset’s futures price will be favorable.
Similarly, a surge in pessimistic sentiment in the market would result in a drop in the asset’s futures price.
This model, unlike the Cost of Carry model, thinks that there is no relationship between the asset’s current spot price and its futures price. What matters is what the asset’s future spot price is predicted to be.
This is also why many stock market participants use futures price patterns to forecast price fluctuations in the cash market.
What is Basis?
On a practical level, you will see that the futures price and the spot price are frequently different. This distinction is referred to as the basis.
When an asset’s futures price is higher than its spot price, the basis for the asset is negative. This indicates that the markets will likely rise in the future.
If, on the other hand, the asset’s spot price is higher than its futures price, the asset’s basis is positive. This portends a market correction in the near future.
What if you don’t sell your futures contract?
It will not be rolled-over if you do not square-off futures. The payment will be made in cash. If you want to roll over, you must square-off manually and then buy stock futures for the next month.
What is the price of an oil futures contract?
Crude oil futures contracts have a 0.01 per barrel specification and are worth $10.00 per contract. Sunday through Friday, electronic trading of crude oil futures is performed on the CME Globex trading platform from 6:00 p.m. U.S. to 5:00 p.m. U.S. ET.