Crypto futures allow investors to bet on the future price of bitcoin without having to possess or handle the currency.
What does it mean to trade futures?
A futures market is an auction market where people purchase and sell commodity and futures contracts for delivery at a later date. Futures are exchange-traded derivatives contracts that guarantee the delivery of a commodity or security in the future at a certain price.
What exactly is the distinction between bitcoin and bitcoin futures?
You don’t own bitcoin directly when you invest in a bitcoin futures ETF, as you would with a stock or bond ETF. Bitcoin futures, on the other hand, are what you own.
Futures contracts are essentially wagers between two investors on the price of an item be it wheat, oil, or bitcoin at a specific point in the future (hence the name). Bitcoin futures contracts, which are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, normally have a six-month expiration date. As a result, one group of contracts expires each month, and the exchange prepares a new batch that will expire several months later.
Naturally, the price of bitcoin futures contracts can increase above or fall below the current spot price for bitcoin, depending on whether investors believe the cryptocurrency will be worth more or less in six months than it is now. However, as the contract’s expiration date approaches, the price of the contracts should converge with the market price of bitcoin, until they finally coincide on the final day.
The bitcoin ETF operates by purchasing futures contracts with expiration dates within a month or two of the current bitcoin price, which should roughly, but not precisely, mirror the current bitcoin price. As the expiration date approaches, the ETF sells the contracts that are about to expire and buys a new set of contracts that will expire in a month or two effectively “rolling” them over.
This isn’t unusual; several commodity ETFs operate in this manner. The United States Oil Fund (USO), the most popular oil ETF, invests in crude oil futures rather than crude oil. These pricing differences normally don’t amount to much over short periods of time – think days or weeks. They can, however, become important over longer periods of time, such as six months or a year, according to Hougan.
How are bitcoin futures profitable?
Most investors understand the importance of keeping as much of their coins in a cold wallet as feasible because blocking internet access to tokens greatly reduces the danger of hacking. Of course, the disadvantage is that this position may not arrive at the exchange in time, particularly if networks are busy.
As a result, when traders seek to reduce their position during volatile markets, futures contracts are the preferable vehicle. An investor can leverage their holdings by 10x by depositing a tiny margin, such as 5% of their holdings, and dramatically lower their net exposure.
After their transaction arrives, these traders could sell their positions on spot markets and close the short position at the same time. Those hoping to enhance their exposure with futures contracts should do the exact opposite. When the money (or stablecoins) arrived at the spot exchange, the derivatives position would be closed.
What impact do futures have on stock prices?
Knowing the direction of pricing on futures contracts for those indexes can be used to project the direction of prices on the actual securities and the markets in which they trade, because the securities in each of the benchmark indexes represent a specific market segment. If the S&P futures have been heading downward all morning, stock prices on U.S. markets are expected to follow suit when trading resumes. The inverse is true as well, with rising futures prices implying a higher open.
What is the purpose of futures contracts?
A futures contract is a legally enforceable agreement to acquire or sell a standardized asset at a defined price at a future date. Futures contracts are exchanged electronically on exchanges like the CME Group, which is the world’s largest futures exchange.
Can Bitcoin crash once more?
When it comes to investing, there are no guarantees. Bitcoin has the ability to fall and rise at the same time.
More regulation is perceived as a danger to crypto’s decentralization, which has an impact on price.
- Bitcoin has been marketed as a gold substitute, implying that it may serve as a deflationary hedge.
Given its erratic nature, it’s feasible that bitcoin will regain popularity at some point in the future (perhaps weeks, months or even years down the line).
However, because no one has a crystal ball, it is hard to predict whether bitcoin will crash in the future.
Learn more about the best practices for investing in cryptocurrency (as well as the pitfalls to avoid).
Are bitcoin futures beneficial or harmful?
The monthly average negative yield for bitcoin futures is higher than the average contango cost for crude oil futures, which is 1.69 percent each month, and only slightly lower than the monthly average negative yield for unleaded gas, which is 2.85 percent. It’s a lot higher than the average monthly contango costs on gold futures, which are 0.23 percent.
Should I consider purchasing bitcoin futures?
Despite the fact that a futures-based bitcoin ETF isn’t a direct investment in cryptocurrencies, it’s nevertheless dangerous due to bitcoin exposure and the complexities of futures contracts.
Ross is particularly concerned about new investors who have been anticipating the launch of a futures-based bitcoin ETF in order to obtain exposure to the cryptocurrency without fully comprehending its hazards. “Those who may have been waiting and thinking that this was going to make it really safe for them, without actually doing the necessary diligence,” he says, are the ones who should be concerned.
Financial experts advise that you only invest what you can afford to lose, whether you use a futures-based bitcoin ETF or directly invest in cryptocurrencies.
Don’t miss: The Securities and Exchange Commission is ready to enable bitcoin futures ETFs to begin trading – here’s what investors need to know.
Are bitcoin futures a good investment?
The Bitcoin-based transaction is becoming increasingly profitable. The lack of efficiency, maturity, and liquidity in the crypto market, when compared to regular markets, all lead to a steep futures curve for bitcoin futures. This signifies that bitcoin’s futures price is higher than its current price.