TBT gives investors -2x exposure to daily fluctuations in T-bonds with more than 20 years to maturity through a combination of swaps and futures. TBT is a short-term tactical instrument rather than a buy-and-hold ETF because it is a leveraged product.
Is TBT a decent exchange-traded fund (ETF)?
TBT is a strong tool for educated investors, but individuals with a low risk tolerance or a buy-and-hold strategy should avoid it. This ETF might be a terrific addition to an investment portfolio for people who are well-versed in the specific economy and its inner workings.
What causes the price of TBT to rise?
Consider high-quality short-term government bonds if you wish to invest in bonds. In a deflationary situation, however, huge deleveraging happens, raising the dollar’s value. The best long bet is going to be the US dollar. Purchasing power rises when prices for goods and services fall. Also, if deflation strikes and the market collapses, staying in cash (at all-time market highs) will give you the opportunity to buy stocks at deep discounts.
The study presented above should be seen from a macro perspective. Anything can happen in the short term. Although it is impossible to time the market, it is very simple to forecast long-term outcomes using logic and trends.
Can you keep TBT for a long time?
Most economists and pundits are at least talking about inflation because of concerns about the large rise of the US budget deficit and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Many investors have begun to be concerned about the prognosis for US Treasuries, which is understandable. As a result, investors have begun to turn to inverse Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In fact, ETFs that provide leveraged short exposure to US Treasury bonds have had some of the largest inflows of any ETF in 2009. The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSE Arca: TBT) had $1.5 billion in net inflows in the first five months of 2009, according to the National Stock Exchange. The ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (NYSE Arca: PST), its sibling product, has raised $271 million.
Despite offering -300 percent exposure to Treasury markets, DirexionShares’ two latest inverse Treasury ETFs have received little notice thus far. They are, however, fresh to the market and may still prosper.
It hasn’t happened. What is the index that the fund tracks for the year ending May 29, 2009? The 20+ Year Treasury Index of Barclays Capital (formerly Lehman) increased by 5.35 percent. TBT was predicted to lose 10.70 percent of its value, or minus two times the index, according to investors. TBT, on the other hand, fell by 28% in that one-year period.
This ostensibly poor performance has nothing to do with money issues and everything to do with basic math. In a volatile environment, compounding leveraged or inverse returns eventually falls behind the simple long-term multiple of the index itself. It’s meant to function like that.
This is demonstrated with an example. Assume you start with a 100-point index and a $100-per-share -2X ETF. The index climbs 10% to 110 on day one, while the ETF drops 20% to $80 per share. On day two, the index drops 10% to 99, while the ETF increases 20% to $96/share.
The index is down 1% (from 100 to 99) after two days, while the ETF, which is supposed to produce -200 percent of the index’s return, is down 4% (from $100 to $96). Nonetheless, everything went off without a hitch.
Surprisingly, the opposite is also true: leverage enhances returns in a moving market with minimal volatility. Again, simple math provides the answer. To back to our example, assume the index climbs 10% on day one and then another 10% on day two. The index rises 21% to 121, while the ETF drops 36% to $64/share, a higher return than the -42 percent you might expect.
What are the dangers of an inverse ETF?
- Investors can profit from a falling market without having to short any securities using inverse ETFs.
- Speculative traders and investors looking for tactical day trades against their respective underlying indices might look at inverse ETFs.
- An inverse ETF that tracks the inverse performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, for example, would lose 1% for every 1% increase in the index.
- Because of the way they’re built, inverse ETFs come with their own set of dangers that investors should be aware of before investing.
- Compounding risk, derivative securities risk, correlation risk, and short sale exposure risk are the main risks associated with investing in inverse ETFs.
What does the TLT ETF invest in?
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of an index of US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of more than twenty years.
Is TBT an effective inflation hedge?
Investing in TBT now, in my opinion, makes sense for investors concerned about inflation and interest rate hikes. If and when treasury yields begin to rise, a tiny percentage of your portfolio allocated to this ETF will assist you hedge some of the price depreciation.
What is TBT ProShares?
For a single day, this short ProShares ETF aims a return that is -2x that of its underlying benchmark (target), as measured from one NAV calculation to the next.
Holding periods of more than one day can result in returns that are significantly different from the target return due to the compounding of daily returns, and ProShares’ returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. These effects may be stronger in funds with higher or inverse multiples, as well as funds with more volatile benchmarks.
Investors should keep a close eye on their investments on a daily basis. Investors should read the prospectus for more information on how the returns are calculated and the risks associated with investing in this product.