Is the national debt important? Is this a sign of financial security? Not all of the time.
According to the IMF database, there is only one “debt-free” country. The relatively low national debt of many countries could be owing to a failure to present true data to the IMF.
Another situation in which a low national debt is a poor omen is when a country’s economy is so weak that no one wants to lend to them.
The ten least indebted countries in the world in 2020, according to IMF data:
What country is #1 in debt?
What countries have the world’s largest debt? The top 10 countries with the largest national debt are listed below:
With a population of 127,185,332, Japan holds the world’s biggest national debt, accounting for 234.18 percent of GDP, followed by Greece (181.78 percent). The national debt of Japan is presently $1,028 trillion ($9.087 trillion USD). After Japan’s stock market plummeted, the government bailed out banks and insurance businesses by providing low-interest loans. After a period of time, banking institutions had to be consolidated and nationalized, and other fiscal stimulus measures were implemented to help the faltering economy get back on track. Unfortunately, these initiatives resulted in a massive increase in Japan’s debt.
The national debt of China now stands at 54.44 percent of GDP, up from 41.54 percent in 2014. China’s national debt currently stands at more than 38 trillion yuan ($5 trillion USD). According to a 2015 assessment by the International Monetary Fund, China’s debt is comparatively modest, and many economists have rejected concerns about the debt’s size, both overall and in relation to China’s GDP. With a population of 1,415,045,928 people, China currently possesses the world’s greatest economy and population.
At 19.48 percent of GDP, Russia has one of the lowest debt ratios in the world. Russia is the world’s tenth least indebted country. The overall debt of Russia is currently about 14 billion y ($216 billion USD). The majority of Russia’s external debt is held by private companies.
The national debt of Canada is currently 83.81 percent of GDP. The national debt of Canada is presently over $1.2 trillion CAD ($925 billion USD). Following the 1990s, Canada’s debt decreased gradually until 2010, when it began to rise again.
Germany’s debt to GDP ratio is at 59.81 percent. The entire debt of Germany is estimated to be around 2.291 trillion € ($2.527 trillion USD). Germany has the largest economy in Europe.
Is Norway the only country without debt?
Norway is one of the few countries on the planet that does not require financial assistance. Norway is a small country with a relatively modest population yet a long coastline.
How much debt is the world in 2021?
In the second quarter, debt as a percentage of GDP declined to roughly 353 percent, down from a peak of 362 percent in the first three months of this year.
According to the IIF, 51 of the 61 nations it studied had their debt-to-GDP ratios fall, owing to a significant recovery in economic activity.
However, it cautioned that the recovery has not been robust enough in many cases to bring debt ratios down below pre-pandemic levels.
Only five nations, according to the IIF, have overall debt-to-GDP ratios that are lower than pre-pandemic levels: Mexico, Argentina, Denmark, Ireland, and Lebanon.
China’s debt levels have risen faster than those of other countries, while emerging-market debt excluding China hit a new high of $36 trillion in the second quarter, primarily to increased government borrowing.
After a minor reduction in the first quarter, debt in developed economies, particularly the eurozone, climbed again in the second quarter, according to the IIF.
Although household debt climbed at a record rate, debt creation in the United States was the slowest since the start of the crisis, at roughly $490 billion.
In the first half of this year, global household debt increased by $1.5 trillion to $55 trillion. In the first half of the year, roughly a third of the nations studied by the IIF experienced an increase in household debt, according to the IIF.
“In practically every major country in the globe, rising housing prices have accompanied increased household debt,” said Tiftik of the IIF.
According to the IIF, total sustainable debt issuance has topped $800 billion this year, with global issuance expected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2021.
What happens if a country doesn’t pay its debt?
Even if we aren’t aware of it, sovereign debt is frequently in the news. Several impoverished countries continue to fail on their debt. This happens more commonly in Latin American and African countries. The public has a hazy knowledge of how sovereign debt operates. This is due to the fact that sovereign debt defies logic. True, countries borrow money in the same way that businesses do, and they must repay it in the same way. If a firm defaults on a debt, it must bear the repercussions of its actions. When a country defaults on its debt, however, the entire economy suffers.
No International Court
To begin, it is important to recognize that the majority of this debt is not subject to any legal authority. Creditors file bankruptcy in the country’s court when a corporation fails to pay its debts. The process is then presided over by the court, and the company’s assets are normally liquidated to pay off the creditors. When a country defaults, however, the lenders have no recourse to an international court. Lenders frequently have limited options. They can’t steal a country’s assets without its consent, and they can’t force it to pay.
Reputation Mechanism
The second point is why would creditors lend money if they can’t force borrowers to repay debt? The explanation is that they lend depending on the borrower’s reputation. The United States, for example, has never defaulted on its debt. As a result, they have a low risk of default. As a result, they get better financing than countries like Venezuela and Argentina, which have defaulted in the past and are more likely to default in the future.
The basic basis of financing to sovereign states is that if they default, they will lose access to future loans from international bond markets. This is a huge disadvantage because governments nearly always require finance to support their expansion. This is why, even after defaulting, governments choose to repay their debts.
It’s unlikely that creditors will suffer a complete loss. Usually, when a default happens, a compromise is made, and creditors are forced to take a loss. This means they will receive at least a portion of the money owed to them.
Interest Rates Rise
The most immediate effect is that the country’s borrowing costs in the international bond market rise. If the government borrows at a higher rate, corporations will have to borrow at higher rates as well. As a result, interest rates rise, and the value of previously issued bonds plummets even more. Banks are hesitant to lend money to borrowers at high rates, which has a negative impact on trade and commerce.
Exchange Rate
International investors become concerned that the defaulting government will keep printing money until hyperinflation occurs. As a result, they wish to leave the insolvent country. As a result, as everyone attempts to sell their local currency holdings and buy a more stable foreign currency, exchange rates in the international market collapse. If a country is not very reliant on foreign investment, the impact of the exchange rate may be minor. Countries that default on their debts, on the other hand, tend to have a large amount of foreign investment.
Bank Runs
Locals want to get their money out of the banks, just as investors want to get their money out of the country. They are concerned that the government may seize their bank deposits in order to fulfill the international debt. Bank runs become the norm as everyone tries to withdraw money at the same moment. Many customers are unable to reclaim their deposits, which causes the situation to worsen and further bank runs to occur.
Stock Market Crash
Without a doubt, the aforementioned variables have a negative impact on the economy. As a result, the stock market suffers as well. The circle of negativity feeds on itself once more. The stock market catastrophe is self-perpetuating. During a sovereign debt default, it is not uncommon for stock markets to lose 40 percent to 50 percent of their market capitalisation.
Trade Embargo
Foreign creditors have a lot of clout in their native countries. As a result, following a default, they persuade their governments to impose trade embargoes on the defaulting countries. These embargoes prevent important commodities from entering and leaving a country, strangling its economy. Because the majority of countries rely on oil imports to meet their energy demands, trade embargos can be disastrous. In the lack of oil and energy, an economy’s productivity suffers greatly.
Rising Unemployment
Both private businesses and the government are affected by the current economic climate. The government is unable to borrow money, and tax receipts are at historic lows. As a result, they are unable to pay their employees on time. People also cease buying things because of the unfavorable mood in the economy. As a result, GDP declines, exacerbating the jobless cycle.
How much is Japan’s debt?
The Japanese public debt is anticipated to reach around US$13.11 trillion (1.4 quadrillion yen) as of 2021, the most of any developed country at 266 percent of GDP. The Bank of Japan holds 45 percent of this debt.
The collapse of Japan’s asset price bubble in 1991 ushered in a long period of economic stagnation known as the “lost decade,” with real GDP decreasing considerably during the 1990s. As a result, in the early 2000s, the Bank of Japan embarked on a non-traditional strategy of quantitative easing to inject liquidity into the market in order to promote economic growth. By 2013, Japan’s public debt had surpassed one quadrillion yen (US$10.46 trillion), more than twice the country’s yearly gross domestic product and already the world’s highest debt ratio.
Japan’s public debt has continued to climb in response to a number of issues, including the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-08, the Tsunami in 2011, and the COVID-19 epidemic, which began in late 2019 and has consequences for Tokyo’s hosting of the 2020 Summer Olympics. In August 2011, Moody’s downgraded Japan’s long-term sovereign debt rating from Aa2 to Aa3 due to the country’s large deficit and high borrowing levels. The ratings drop was influenced by substantial budget deficits and government debt since the global recession of 2008-09, as well as the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. The Yearbook of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) noted in 2012 that Japan’s “debt surged above 200 percent of GDP partially as a result of the devastating earthquake and subsequent reconstruction efforts.” Because of the growing debt, former Prime Minister Naoto Kan labeled the issue “urgent.”
How much debt is Canada in?
The obligations of the government sector in Canada are referred to as “government debt” or “public debt.” The market value of financial liabilities, or gross debt, for the consolidated Canadian general government in 2020 (the fiscal year ending 31 March 2021) was $2,852 billion ($74,747 per capita) (federal, provincial, territorial, and local governments combined). In 2020, gross debt as a percentage of GDP was 129.2 percent (GDP was $2,207 billion), the highest amount ever recorded. The federal government’s debt accounted for about half of all debt, or 66.4 percent of GDP. The large deficits ($325 billion) generated to support multiple relief measures, particularly in the form of transfers to people and subsidies to businesses during the COVID-19 epidemic, drove the increase in debt in 2020.
The impact of historical government deficits is mostly reflected in changes in government debt over time.
When government spending surpasses revenue, a deficit occurs.
Because the beneficiaries of the goods and services provided by the government today through deficit financing are typically different from those who will be responsible for repaying the debt in the future, deficit financing usually results in an intergenerational transfer.
(Borrowing for a one-time purchase of an asset that supplies commodities and services in the future that are matched to the loan repayment expenses, for example, issuing debt today that is repaid over 50 years to finance a bridge that lasts 50 years, would not result in an intergenerational transfer.)
How much is the Philippine debt?
This demonstrates a willingness to put up with high debt levels in the short run. As the state ran large deficits to combat the epidemic, outstanding government debt increased from 8.2 trillion pesos in 2019 to 10.2 trillion pesos in 2020. The federal debt has risen to 11.9 trillion pesos in the first three quarters of 2021. Despite not knowing the final figures for 2021, the government intends to borrow another 7.5 percent of GDP in 2022 to fund public spending. That, in my opinion, illustrates that Philippine policymakers are not afraid of capital markets punishing them for excessive borrowing. They clearly believe that counter-cyclical public spending is more vital at this moment to stimulate the economy.
Because, unlike Thailand, the Philippines’ current account swung into surplus during the epidemic, the Philippines may feel comfortable running deficits right now. The trade deficit shrank, while foreign remittances from Filipinos living abroad remained stable, implying that the current account will be stronger in 2022 than it was before the pandemic. Because a current account surplus often equals cheaper borrowing costs, this affords Manila some leeway to run deficits. According to the Department of Budget Management, the surplus will remain at 1.5 percent of GDP in 2022, and foreign exchange reserves will rise to $117 billion.
This is one of the reasons why the 2022 budget expects debt servicing costs to fall even as spending and total debt levels rise — borrowing costs are likely to remain reasonable for the time being. That might not last indefinitely (especially if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates soon), which is why it’s critical that any money the Philippines borrows to finance its deficits is spent on things that matter. Infrastructure and education will receive a large portion of investment in 2022, although health and other social services may not have received as much funding as some would like. These are the concerns that will be debated in the Senate before the bill is passed.
But, for the time being, the most important point is that, in 2022, this administration will try to spend its way out of any remaining economic effects of the epidemic, and it will not be hesitant to run deficits or take on debt to do so. If the current account returns to deficit and borrowing costs rise, this newfound debt tolerance may evaporate quickly, and I’m sure policymakers in the Philippines will be watching this closely in the months and years ahead.
Who owns the global debt?
Debt of the State Over $22 trillion of the national debt is held by the general populace. 1 A substantial amount of the public debt is held by foreign governments, with the remainder held by American banks and investors, the Federal Reserve, state and local governments, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and savings bonds.
Which countries have defaulted on their debt?
Six countries (Argentina, Belize, Ecuador, Lebanon, Suriname, and Zambia) have defaulted on sovereign debt obligations since the end of 2019. In 2021, developing market public debt (excluding China) is estimated to reach 61 percent of GDP.
Which countries have never defaulted on their debt?
In order to estimate the risk of sovereign default, investors in sovereign debt meticulously examine the financial position and political temperament of sovereign borrowers. Sovereign defaults are uncommon, and they are usually triggered by an economic catastrophe in the defaulting country. Economic downturns, political unrest, and excessive government expenditure and debt are all symptoms that a country is on the verge of defaulting.
If potential lenders or bond buyers fear a government will default on its obligations, they may demand a higher interest rate to compensate for the risk of default. This is sometimes referred to as a sovereign debt crisis, which is characterized by a sharp increase in a government’s interest rate as a result of concerns that it may default on its debt. Short-term bond financing creates a maturity mismatch between short-term bond financing and the long-term asset value of a country’s tax base, making governments that rely on it more vulnerable to a sovereign debt crisis.
A country’s sovereign credit rating will most likely suffer if it defaults or faces an increased danger of default. The country’s interest expenditure, superfluous and procedural defaults, and failures to adhere to the conditions of bonds or other debt instruments will all be considered by a credit rating agency.
The impact on the larger economy, however, is perhaps the most serious issue about a national default. Many mortgages, vehicle loans, and student loans in the United States, for example, are tied to Treasury rates. If debtors face much higher payments as a result of a debt default, they will have significantly less disposable income to spend on goods and services, perhaps triggering a recession.
A few of countries have never publicly defaulted on their sovereign debt obligations and have an exceptional track record of doing so. Canada, Denmark, Belgium, Finland, Malaysia, Mauritius, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Switzerland, and England are among these countries.
