The concept of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge is straightforward. The total number of Bitcoins is limited to 21 million, but the total number of US dollars increases over time. If the quantity of the US dollar increases, the value of Bitcoin in dollars should increase as well, assuming all other factors remain constant.
Here’s a very basic illustration of Bitcoin’s worth if the supply of dollars doubles. In all cases, I assume that the “market cap” of US dollars and Bitcoin is equal.
Is Bitcoin an effective inflation hedge?
Inflation has affected practically every aspect of human activity, from turkeys to gasoline, clothing to dollar stores. Inflationary pressures are wreaking havoc on people’s budgets and spending plans all around the world.
Consumers and institutions holding depreciating fiat currency have searched out alternatives to hedge against the inflationary firestorm. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are the current weapons of choice, prompting the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States to recognize cryptocurrency as an investable asset class.
Bitcoin has had a great year-to-date performance, outperforming traditional hedges by more than 130 percent over gold’s measly 4 percent. In addition, greater institutional acceptance, a steady appetite for digital assets based on weekly inflows, and increasing media coverage bolstered bitcoin’s case among sceptical investors.
How can Bitcoin keep inflation at bay?
Because Bitcoin is basically a deflationary asset, inhabitants of nations with unstable fiat currencies are increasingly using it as a store of value to shield themselves from hyperinflation and growing costs of common goods and services. Crypto, unlike fiat currency, cannot be manipulated as easily as fiat currency by changing interest rates and increasing money production. Most crucially, Bitcoin’s supply will never surpass 21 million, making it a desirable inflation-resistant store of value. While Bitcoin has grown in popularity over the last year, the crypto market’s volatility remains a contentious issue.
What is Bitcoin’s response to inflation?
Many cryptocurrency supporters consider it to be a digital equivalent of the US dollar, which it is in some ways.
Although not every coffee shop accepts Bitcoin or Ethereum, crypto is becoming more popular as a means of payment. Several well-known merchants (and well-known e-tailers) now take bitcoin, and the number of firms taking digital currencies is certain to increase.
When the value of a dollar erodes over time due to inflation, people often hunt for assets that can consistently outperform inflation. Some experts believe that crypto’s huge moves in a year like 2021 could serve that function. Many investors already do this with gold, commodities, and other types of investments. Rather than investing in traditional and alternative investments to grow and store wealth, an investor can buy cryptocurrencies in the hopes that its value will rise, making it less sensitive to currency swings.
Big fluctuations in crypto mean it lacks the steadiness needed to outpace inflation, as we’ve learned over the last several months. For example, Bitcoin’s value plummeted in 2021, just as consumer prices began to rise, and it plummeted again towards the end of 2021, which has continued into 2022.
This also indicates that Bitcoin is now untrustworthy as a daily money. When the value of a digital coin fluctuates by 10% in a couple of days, it’s difficult to envision it as a reliable tender for the average individual to use to make purchases. Because of its volatility, it is dangerous not only as a currency, but also as an investment asset class.
What are some excellent inflation hedges?
ETFs and mutual funds are two of the most straightforward ways to diversify investments into international markets. When compared to acquiring a portfolio of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) or foreign stocks, these funds are a low-cost method to invest. If you’re already invested in S&P 500 index funds, you might want to diversify your holdings with an international index fund.
What is the Bitcoin inflation rate?
Following the announcement of the latest consumer price index, which showed an increase of 0.6 percent in January and an annual inflation rate of 7.5 percent, far more than economists expectedand the largest jump since February 1982bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies plummeted.
What happens if every single Bitcoin is mined?
The total number of bitcoins available is capped at 21 million. Bitcoin’s source code, which was created by its creator(s), Satoshi Nakamoto, and cannot be changed, determines this. Once all bitcoins have been mined, the number of coins in circulation will remain constant.
Are cryptocurrencies immune to economic downturns?
Cryptocurrencies have not been around during previous recessions, but their decentralized structure could make them an effective instrument for recession hedging. Gold, cash, and real estate are all conventional ways to protect against the risk of a recession.
How will you protect yourself from inflation in 2022?
During the epidemic, there was a surge in demand for products and labor, resulting in the fastest rate of consumer price and wage inflation since the early 1990s. As the pandemic passes and spending moves toward services rather than products, we believe inflation will reduce due to greater labor supply. In the end, it should not jeopardize our base case scenario, which predicts a significantly more vibrant cycle in the 2020s than we experienced in the 2010s.
However, both prices and salaries are expected to rise at a pretty rapid pace. We believe there are three ways for investors to navigate this climate.
Look to real estate for inflation protection
Because leases are regularly reset higher, real estate investors often profit from a natural inflation hedge. Furthermore, we believe the residential and industrial real estate sectors will benefit from strong structural tailwinds. Following the global financial crisis, chronic underbuilding (compared to trend) resulted in a housing shortage in the United States. Workers’ labor is in high demand, and earnings are rising, ensuring that housing remains cheap even as home prices rise. Migration enabled by remote work is also offering opportunities.
The global trend toward e-commerce will demand additional warehouses, storage, and logistics in the industrial sector. The need for further investment is highlighted by problems in the global supply chain that became apparent in 2021. We’re also seeing an increase in demand for life science research facilities. While we prefer to invest in real estate through private markets, publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) have outperformed other equities sectors during periods of rising inflation. In a nutshell, real estate is our favourite option to invest in a higher-inflation climate.
Rely on equities, especially cyclical ones, to drive capital appreciation.
While economists dispute the complexities of inflation, the fundamental principles underlying the current phase appear to be clear: Strong demand and economic growth are driving inflation. Because corporate earnings are also good in inflationary settings, equities tend to do well. We anticipate that stocks of companies that are more closely linked to economic activity and interest rates will likely outperform. Bank stock valuations, for example, have generally been linked to inflation forecasts. In cyclical industries like industrials and commodities, companies with pricing power could see strong revenue increases. Stocks that do well when growth and inflation are rare (think the digital economy) may, on the other hand, be at more risk. In our opinion, you should maintain a fair balance between the two categories, and expect a hard environment for fixed income portfolios as interest rates climb.
Avoid excess cash, and consider borrowing.
In our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, 80 percent of the assets we consider have a higher predicted return than inflation. Investing surplus cash in a portfolio that meets your goals and time horizon is the simplest approach to protect purchasing power. Borrowing may be prudent in the current situation. Interest rates remain low, particularly when compared to inflation. A mortgage is a straightforward approach to profit from a healthy home market. If the Federal Reserve reacts to rising inflation by boosting interest rates, borrowing expenses may become less appealing.
Key takeaways
Higher inflation is likely to persist through 2022, but it does not have to be a reason for alarm. Investors can create a portfolio that considers inflation risks and attempts to manage them. While excess cash appears unappealing, relying on equities rather than fixed income and focusing on cyclical sectors and real estate could prove to be profitable strategies. Meanwhile, while policy interest rates are still low, borrowing and settling existing liabilities may be prudent.
In the context of your individual circumstances and aspirations, your J.P. Morgan team can provide you with more information on how the present environment is influencing risk and return possibilities.