Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, foods, feeds, and drinks, as well as industrial supplies and materials, were major contributors to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The increase in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, financial services and insurance, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. The drop in state and local government spending corresponded to a drop in gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in real GDP was mostly due to increases in exports and residential investment, as well as increases in private inventory investment and consumer expenditure, which were somewhat offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 14.6 percent on an annual basis, or $806.2 billion, to $24.01 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file contains more detail on the source data that underpins the estimations.
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter (table 4). The PCE price index grew 6.3 percent, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous estimate. The PCE price index grew 5.0 percent excluding food and energy prices, a 0.1 percentage point upward revision.
Updates to GDP
From the “advance” estimate, the rise in fourth-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point. Upward adjustments in nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were partially offset by downward revisions in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending in the updated estimates. Imports have been reduced. Refer to the Technical Note for more information. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What is the duration of a recession?
A recession is a long-term economic downturn that affects a large number of people. A depression is a longer-term, more severe slump. Since 1854, there have been 33 recessions. 1 Recessions have lasted an average of 11 months since 1945.
How is a recession usually assessed?
Industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail commerce all show signs of a recession. Although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not require two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to declare a recession, it does use more frequently reported monthly data to make its decision, so quarterly GDP declines do not always coincide with the decision to declare a recession.
How widespread is the recession?
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) keeps track of the average length of US recessions. According to NBER data, the average recession lasted 11 months from 1945 to 2009. This is a step forward from previous eras: The average recession lasted 21.6 months from 1854 to 1919. The United States has had four recessions in the last 30 years:
- The Covid-19 Recession is a period of economic downturn. The most recent recession in the United States started in February 2020 and lasted only two months, making it the shortest in history.
- The Great Recession of 2008-2009 (December 2007 to June 2009). As previously stated, a real estate bubble contributed to the Great Recession. Although the Great Recession was not as bad as the Great Depression, its length and severity gave it the same moniker. The Great Recession lasted almost twice as long as other US recessions, lasting 18 months.
- The Dot Com Bubble Burst (March 2001 to November 2001). The United States was dealing with a number of big economic issues at the turn of the 2000, including the impact from the tech bubble burst and accounting scandals at businesses like Enron, all of which were topped off by the 9/11 terrorist attacks. These issues combined to cause a temporary recession, from which the economy soon recovered.
- The Recession After the Gulf War (July 1990 to March 1991). The United States experienced a brief, eight-month recession at the start of the 1990s, which was triggered in part by rising oil prices during the First Gulf War.
In 2021, how much did the GDP grow?
As the economy continues to recover from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, US GDP growth surged in the fourth quarter, expanding at a 6.9% annual rate, up from the preceding four quarters’ rate of growth. Increased inventory investment and increased service consumption accounted for all of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased by 5.5 percent in the first four quarters of 2021, the fastest rate since 1984.
In the fourth quarter, the economy was most likely producing at or near its full potential. The economy was still trending 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Even if the pandemic had not occurred, the economy is unlikely to have continued to develop at the same rate in 2020 and 2021 as it had in previous years. Prior to the pandemic, forecasters projected a slowdown since the economy was close to or at maximum employment, making it improbable that job gains would continue at the same rate. Furthermore, because of higher fatalities and limited immigration, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected labor force, and low investment, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected capital stock, the pandemic itself has certainly diminished potential.
Even while the economy was near to where it would have been had the epidemic and the government’s response not occurred, the economy’s makeup was drastically changed. On the supply side, employment remained low (because to low labor force participation), but this was compensated for by longer average hours and improved productivity. Final expenditures were biased towards commodities and residential investment, rather than services, business fixed investment, inventories, and net exports, on the demand side. In the fourth quarter, the demand side began to take on a more regular composition, but it remained highly skewed.
What was the GDP during the previous quarter?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What is the number of quarters in a depression?
In economics, a depression is a significant downturn in the business cycle marked by sharp and sustained declines in economic activity, high rates of unemployment, poverty, and homelessness, increased rates of personal and business bankruptcy, massive stock market declines, and significant reductions in international trade and capital movements. A depression can also be characterized as a particularly severe and long-lasting kind of recession, with the latter being defined as a period of at least two consecutive quarters of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, or gross domestic product, in relation to a national economy. A recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales,” while a depression is “a particularly severe period of economic weakness” that is “commonly undetectable in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
Was it a depression or a recession in 2008?
- The Great Recession was a period of economic slump that lasted from 2007 to 2009, following the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States and the worldwide financial crisis.
- The Great Recession was the worst economic downturn in the United States since the 1930s’ Great Depression.
- Federal authorities unleashed unprecedented fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy in reaction to the Great Recession, which some, but not all, credit with the ensuing recovery.
Is the economy on the decline?
The economic expansion that began in mid-2009 and ended in early 2020 came to an abrupt halt. In March 2020, the commencement of COVID-19 caused a severe decrease in economic activity, resulting in a 5.1 percent annual decline in real GDP in the first quarter and 31.2 percent in the second quarter.
In economics, how is recession defined?
A recession is characterized as a prolonged period of low or negative real GDP (output) growth, which is accompanied by a considerable increase in the unemployment rate. During a recession, many other economic indicators are equally weak.