GDP quantifies the monetary worth of final goods and services produced in a country over a specific period of time, i.e. those that are purchased by the end user (say a quarter or a year). It is a metric that measures all of the output produced within a country’s borders.
What exactly is GDP and how is it calculated?
GDP is calculated by adding up the quantities of all commodities and services produced, multiplying them by their prices, and then adding them all up. GDP can be calculated using either the sum of what is purchased or the sum of what is generated in the economy.
What constitutes a good GDP?
“In general, you would expect poorer countries to expand faster. “Once you’ve caught up with the frontier, the high-income countries, it’s more difficult to grow quickly,” Boal added. “We’re increasing at a rate of two to three percent faster than the population, which is a fantastic thing. That’s pretty much how things have gone over the last 20 years or so. That would be steady increase based on recent historical experience, which is healthy in that sense.”
4. GDP can be very high.
What is an example of GDP?
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a metric that measures the worth of a country’s economic activities. GDP is the sum of the market values, or prices, of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a given time period. Within this seemingly basic concept, however, there are three key distinctions:
- GDP is a metric that measures the value of a country’s output in local currency.
- GDP attempts to capture all final commodities and services generated within a country, ensuring that the final monetary value of everything produced in that country is represented in the GDP.
- GDP is determined over a set time period, usually a year or quarter of a year.
Computing GDP
Let’s look at how to calculate GDP now that we know what it is. GDP is the monetary value of all the goods and services generated in an economy, as we all know. Consider Country B, which exclusively produces bananas and backrubs. In the first year, they produce 5 bananas for $1 each and 5 backrubs worth $6 each. This year’s GDP is (quantity of bananas X price of bananas) + (quantity of backrubs X price of backrubs), or (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35 for the country. The equation grows longer as more commodities and services are created. For every good and service produced within the country, GDP = (quantity of A X price of A) + (quantity of B X price of B) + (quantity of whatever X price of whatever).
To compute GDP in the real world, the market values of many products and services must be calculated.
While GDP’s total output is essential, the breakdown of that output into the economy’s big structures is often just as important.
In general, macroeconomists utilize a set of categories to break down an economy into its key components; in this case, GDP is equal to the total of consumer spending, investment, government purchases, and net exports, as represented by the equation:
- The sum of household expenditures on durable commodities, nondurable items, and services is known as consumer spending, or C. Clothing, food, and health care are just a few examples.
- The sum of spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures is referred to as investment (I).
- Machinery, unsold items, and homes are just a few examples.
- G stands for government spending, which is the total amount of money spent on products and services by all government agencies.
- Naval ships and government employee wages are two examples.
- Net exports, or NX, is the difference between foreigners’ spending on local goods and domestic residents’ expenditure on foreign goods.
- Net exports, to put it another way, is the difference between exports and imports.
GDP vs. GNP
GDP is just one technique to measure an economy’s overall output. Another technique is to calculate the Gross National Product, or GNP. As previously stated, GDP is the total value of all products and services generated in a country. GNP narrows the definition slightly: it is the total value of all goods and services generated by permanent residents of a country, regardless of where they are located. The important distinction between GDP and GNP is based on how production is counted by foreigners in a country vs nationals outside of that country. Output by foreigners within a country is counted in the GDP of that country, whereas production by nationals outside of that country is not. Production by foreigners within a country is not considered for GNP, while production by nationals from outside the country is. GNP, on the other hand, is the value of goods and services produced by citizens of a country, whereas GDP is the value of goods and services produced by a country’s citizens.
For example, in Country B (shown in ), nationals produce bananas while foreigners produce backrubs.
Figure 1 shows that Country B’s GDP in year one is (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35.
Because the $30 from backrubs is added to the GNP of the immigrants’ home country, the GNP of country B is (5 X $1) = $5.
The distinction between GDP and GNP is theoretically significant, although it is rarely relevant in practice.
GDP and GNP are usually quite close together because the majority of production within a country is done by its own citizens.
Macroeconomists use GDP as a measure of a country’s total output in general.
Growth Rate of GDP
GDP is a great way to compare the economy at two different times in time. This comparison can then be used to calculate a country’s overall output growth rate.
Subtract 1 from the amount obtained by dividing the GDP for the first year by the GDP for the second year to arrive at the GDP growth rate.
This technique of calculating total output growth has an obvious flaw: both increases in the price of products produced and increases in the quantity of goods produced result in increases in GDP.
As a result, determining whether the volume of output is changing or the price of output is changing from the GDP growth rate is challenging.
Because of this constraint, an increase in GDP does not always suggest that an economy is increasing.
For example, if Country B produced 5 bananas value $1 each and 5 backrubs of $6 each in a year, the GDP would be $35.
If the price of bananas rises to $2 next year and the quantity produced remains constant, Country B’s GDP will be $40.
While the market value of Country B’s goods and services increased, the quantity of goods and services produced remained unchanged.
Because fluctuations in GDP are not always related to economic growth, this factor can make comparing GDP from one year to the next problematic.
Real GDP vs. Nominal GDP
Macroeconomists devised two types of GDP, nominal GDP and real GDP, to deal with the uncertainty inherent in GDP growth rates.
- The total worth of all produced goods and services at current prices is known as nominal GDP. This is the GDP that was discussed in the previous parts. When comparing sheer output with time rather than the value of output, nominal GDP is more informative than real GDP.
- The total worth of all produced goods and services at constant prices is known as real GDP.
- The prices used to calculate real GDP are derived from a certain base year.
- It is possible to compare economic growth from one year to the next in terms of production of goods and services rather than the market value of these products and services by leaving prices constant in the computation of real GDP.
- In this way, real GDP removes the effects of price fluctuations from year-to-year output comparisons.
Choosing a base year is the first step in computing real GDP. Use the GDP equation with year 3 numbers and year 1 prices to calculate real GDP in year 3 using year 1 as the base year. Real GDP equals (10 X $1) + (9 X $6) = $64 in this situation. The nominal GDP in year three is (10 X $2) + (9 X $6) = $74 in comparison. Because the price of bananas climbed from year one to year three, nominal GDP grew faster than actual GDP during this period.
GDP Deflator
Nominal GDP and real GDP convey various aspects of the shift when comparing GDP between years. Nominal GDP takes into account both quantity and price changes. Real GDP, on the other hand, just measures changes in quantity and is unaffected by price fluctuations. Because of this distinction, a third relevant statistic can be calculated once nominal and real GDP have been computed. The GDP deflator is the nominal GDP to real GDP ratio minus one for a particular year. The GDP deflator, in effect, shows how much of the change in GDP from a base year is due to changes in the price level.
Let’s say we want to calculate the GDP deflator for Country B in year 3 using as the base year.
To calculate the GDP deflator, we must first calculate both nominal and real GDP in year 3.
By rearranging the elements in the GDP deflator equation, nominal GDP may be calculated by multiplying real GDP and the GDP deflator.
This equation displays the distinct information provided by each of these output measures.
Changes in quantity are captured by real GDP.
Changes in the price level are captured by the GDP deflator.
Nominal GDP takes into account both price and quantity changes.
You can break down a change in GDP into its component changes in price level and change in quantities produced using nominal GDP, real GDP, and the GDP deflator.
GDP Per Capita
When describing the size and growth of a country’s economy, GDP is the single most helpful number. However, it’s crucial to think about how GDP relates to living standards. After all, a country’s economy is less essential to its residents than the level of living it delivers.
GDP per capita, calculated by dividing GDP by the population size, represents the average amount of GDP received by each individual, and hence serves as an excellent indicator of an economy’s level of life.
The value of GDP per capita is the income of a representative individual because GDP equals national income.
This figure is directly proportional to one’s standard of living.
In general, the higher a country’s GDP per capita, the higher its level of living.
Because of the differences in population between countries, GDP per capita is a more relevant indicator for measuring level of living than GDP.
If a country has a high GDP but a large population, each citizen may have a low income and so live in deplorable circumstances.
A country, on the other hand, may have a moderate GDP but a small population, resulting in a high individual income.
By comparing standard of living among countries using GDP per capita, the problem of GDP division among a country’s residents is avoided.
What makes a low GDP so bad?
The entire cash worth of all products and services produced over a given time period is referred to as GDP. In a nutshell, it’s all that people and corporations generate, including worker salaries.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Department of Commerce, calculates and releases GDP figures every quarter. The BEA frequently revises projections, either up or down, when new data becomes available throughout the course of the quarter. (I’ll go into more detail about this later.)
GDP is often measured in comparison to the prior quarter or year. For example, if the economy grew by 3% in the second quarter, that indicates the economy grew by 3% in the first quarter.
The computation of GDP can be done in one of two ways: by adding up what everyone made in a year, or by adding up what everyone spent in a year. Both measures should result in a total that is close to the same.
The income method is calculated by summing total employee remuneration, gross profits for incorporated and non-incorporated businesses, and taxes, minus any government subsidies.
Total consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports are added together in the expenditure method, which is more commonly employed by the BEA.
This may sound a little complicated, but nominal GDP does not account for inflation, but real GDP does. However, this distinction is critical since it explains why some GDP numbers are changed.
Nominal GDP calculates the value of output in a particular quarter or year based on current prices. However, inflation can raise the general level of prices, resulting in an increase in nominal GDP even if the volume of goods and services produced remains unchanged. However, the increase in prices will not be reflected in the nominal GDP estimates. This is when real GDP enters the picture.
The BEA will measure the value of goods and services adjusted for inflation over a quarter or yearlong period. This is GDP in real terms. “Real GDP” is commonly used to measure year-over-year GDP growth since it provides a more accurate picture of the economy.
When the economy is doing well, unemployment is usually low, and wages rise as firms seek more workers to fulfill the increased demand.
If the rate of GDP growth accelerates too quickly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to slow inflationthe rise in the price of goods and services. This could result in higher interest rates on vehicle and housing loans. The cost of borrowing for expansion and hiring would also be on the rise for businesses.
If GDP slows or falls below a certain level, it might raise fears of a recession, which can result in layoffs, unemployment, and a drop in business revenues and consumer expenditure.
The GDP data can also be used to determine which economic sectors are expanding and which are contracting. It can also assist workers in obtaining training in expanding industries.
Investors monitor GDP growth to see if the economy is fast changing and alter their asset allocation accordingly. In most cases, a bad economy equals reduced profits for businesses, which means lower stock prices for some.
The GDP can assist people decide whether to invest in a mutual fund or stock that focuses on health care, which is expanding, versus a fund or stock that focuses on technology, which is slowing down, according to the GDP.
Investors can also examine GDP growth rates to determine where the best foreign investment possibilities are. The majority of investors choose to invest in companies that are based in fast-growing countries.
What happens if a country’s economy expands too quickly?
4 When the economy grows too quickly, it overheats. Because it can’t meet the expectations of consumers, businesses, and the government, an overheated economy is unsustainable. The natural rate of unemployment is decreasing. Everything from toilet paper to equities increases in price.
What is America’s current GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
Which country is the most powerful in the world?
In the 2021 Best Countries Report, Canada wins the top overall rank as the world’s number one country for the first time. After coming in second place in the 2020 report, Canada has now eclipsed Switzerland in the 2021 report, with Japan, Germany, Switzerland, and Australia following closely behind.
How much debt does America have?
“Parties in power have built up the deficit through increased spending and poorer tax collection, regardless of political affiliation,” says Brian Rehling, head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
While it’s easy to suggest that a specific president or president’s administration led the federal deficit and national debt to move in a given direction, it’s crucial to remember that only Congress has the power to pass legislation that has the greatest impact on both figures.
Here’s how Congress responded during four major presidential administrations, and how their decisions affected the deficit and national debt.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
FDR served as the country’s last four-term president, guiding the country through a series of economic downturns. His administration spanned the Great Depression, and his flagship New Deal economic recovery plan aided America’s rebound from its financial abyss. The expense of World War II, however, contributed nearly $186 billion to the national debt between 1942 and 1945, making it the greatest substantial rise to the national debt. During FDR’s presidency, Congress added $236 billion to the national debt, a rise of 1,048 percent.
Ronald Reagan
Congress passed two major tax cuts during Reagan’s two administrations, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Reform Act of 1986, both of which reduced government income. Between 1982 and 1990, Congress passed Acts that reduced revenue as a percentage of GDP by 1.7 percent, resulting in a revenue shortfall that contributed to the national debt rising 261 percent ($1.26 trillion) during his presidency, from $924.6 billion to $2.19 trillion.
Barack Obama
The Obama administration oversaw both the Great Recession and the recovery that followed the collapse of the mortgage market throughout his two years in office. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2009, which pumped $831 billion into the economy and helped many Americans avoid foreclosure, was passed by Congress in 2009. When passed by a strong bipartisan vote, congressional tax cuts added extra $858 billion to the national debt. During Obama’s two terms in office, Congress increased the national deficit by 74% and added $8.6 trillion to the national debt.
Donald Trump
Congress approved the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, slashing corporate and personal income tax rates, during his single term. The cuts, which were seen as a bonanza for the wealthiest Americans and corporations at the time of their passage, were expected by the Congressional Budget Office to increase the government deficit by $1.9 trillion at the time of their passing.
The federal deficit climbed from $665 billion in 2017 to $3.13 trillion in 2020, despite the Treasury Secretary’s prediction that the tax cuts would reduce it. Some of the rise was due to tax cuts, but the majority of the increase was due to successive Covid relief programs.
The public’s share of the federal debt has risen from $14.6 trillion in 2017 to more than $21 trillion in 2020. The national debt is made up of public debt and intragovernmental debt (amounts owed to federal retirement trust funds such as the Social Security Trust Fund). It refers to the amount of money owed by the United States to external debtors such as American banks and investors, corporations, people, state and municipal governments, the Federal Reserve, and foreign governments and international investors such as Japan and China. The money is borrowed in order to keep the United States running. Treasury banknotes, notes, and bonds are included. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), US savings bonds, and state and local government series securities are among the other holders of public debt.
“The national debt is growing at a rate it hasn’t seen in decades,” says James Cassel, chairman and co-founder of Cassel Salpeter, an investment bank. “This is the outcome of the basic principle of spending more money than you earn.” Cassel also points out that while both major political parties have spoken seriously about reducing the national debt at times, discussions and strategies have stopped.
When both sides pose discussing raising the debt ceiling each year, the national debt is more typically utilized as a bargaining chip. The United States would default on its debt obligations if the debt ceiling was not raised. As a result, Congress always votes to raise the debt ceiling (the maximum amount of money the US government may borrow), but only after parties have reached an agreement on other legislation.
Who determines GDP?
Who is in charge of calculating GDP? The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses thousands of data points gathered by several federal agencies and certain commercial data collectors to estimate GDP. BEA is a non-profit, non-political statistical organization. On bea.gov, all of its data is available for free.
What are the three methods for calculating GDP?
The value added approach, the income approach (how much is earned as revenue on resources utilized to make items), and the expenditures approach can all be used to calculate GDP (how much is spent on stuff).