According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts, Uganda’s GDP is predicted to reach 32.50 USD billion by the end of 2021. According to our econometric models, Uganda’s GDP will trend around 34.00 USD billion in 2022.
What is the current Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index increased 3.3 percent excluding food and energy prices, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Information” section below for information on GDP updates.
Is Uganda’s GDP insufficient?
Due to the COVID-19pandemic, Uganda’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at 2.9 percent in FY20, less than half of the 6.8 percent recorded in FY19. In FY21, GDP is predicted to expand at a similar pace.
Due to a four-month domestic lockdown, border closures for all but essential cargo, and the spillover effects of interruptions to global demand and supply networks, economic activity stopped in the second half of FY20. This led in a severe drop in public investment and a slowdown in private consumption, wreaking havoc on the manufacturing and service sectors, notably the informal sector.
Real GDP growth is predicted to slow by up to 1% in 2020, compared to 7.5 percent in 2019, and real per capita GDP growth is expected to slow by roughly 4.5 percent. Even if GDP growth picks up significantly by 2022, per capita GDP is projected to remain substantially below pre-COVID levels.
The medium-term outlook for Uganda has deteriorated significantly as a result of COVID-19, which has shifted risks to the downside. If the global impact of COVID-19 lasts longer, or the virus spreads more broadly in Uganda, it might derail Uganda’s export recovery; negatively impact a resurgence in FDI, tourism, and remittances; and further decrease productivity and internal economic recovery. This could have more severe social and economic consequences, as well as exacerbate external and fiscal imbalances.
Furthermore, while reduced oil prices are good for Uganda’s trade balance and real development, they put investment plans in the Ugandan oil sector, which was supposed to start producing and exporting by 2024/25, in jeopardy. Finally, increased uncertainty in the run-up to the 2021 election, as well as weather shocks, could intensify the dangers.
Despite a slowing in average economic growth over the last decade, structural transformation was driving a decline in poverty prior to the COVID-19 epidemic. The change was marked by a decrease in the total number of people working in agriculture and an increase in industrial production, particularly in agro-processing. Despite transitions to higher-productivity jobs, per capita real GDP growth slowed to 1.3 percent from 2.2 percent between 2010 and 2015 in the five years leading up to the COVID-19 crisis, as population growth accelerated to 3.7 percent per year. Furthermore, as evidenced by the brief increase in poverty following the 2016/17 drought, impoverished individuals remain extremely vulnerable to shocks.
Following the COVID shock, there have been extensive company closures, permanent layoffs in industry and services, a dramatic slowdown of activity, especially in the urban informal sector, and a return of workers to agriculture. Household incomes have also decreased, which is worrying given Uganda’s high levels of poverty and insufficient social safety nets, as well as the impact this may have on human capital development and the country’s potential to benefit from its demographic transition.
Low production is heavily relied upon. Agriculture (which accounts for nearly a quarter of the GDP, half of exports, and 70% of employment) also contributes to income instability and stagnation. The economy needs to create at least 700,000 jobs each year to keep up with labor force growth, which is significantly more than the 75,000 jobs that are now created each year. Raising salaries even higher will necessitate increased agricultural productivity as well as possibilities to absorb excess labor into more productive jobs in industry and services.
Uganda’s Human Capital Index (HCI) is poor; a child born today in Uganda is likely to be 38 percent as productive as she could be if she had access to a full education and good health. In comparison to the Sub-Saharan African average of 8.3, a child who begins school at the age of four is only projected to finish 6.8 years of schooling by the age of eighteen. Actual years of learning, on the other hand, are 4.3, with 2.5 years considered “wasted” due to poor educational quality. By the end of primary school, 83 percent of 10-year-olds are unable to read and comprehend a simple text. This is higher than the regional norm (80 percent ).
Only 95 out of 100 Ugandan children survive to the age of five. Undernutrition is widespread in Uganda, with stunting affecting 29% of children aged 5 and under. Despite lower fertility rates, Uganda’s yearly population growth rate of 3% is among the highest in the world. Uganda’s 42 million people are predicted to rise to 100 million by 2050, while the country’s yearly urban growth rate of 5.2 percent is among the highest in the world, with 6.4 million people in 2014 expected to grow to 22 million by 2040.
Beyond causing economic disruption, the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to reverse recent advances in health and human capital development if effective prevention and control measures are not implemented quickly and at scale.
Uganda’s refugee population has nearly tripled since July 2016, to over 1.4 million, making it Africa’s and the world’s third largest refugee host country. While the country’s open-door refugee policy is one of the most progressive in the world, with refugees having access to social services, land, and jobs, the continual influx, along with limited resources, is putting a strain on existing facilities and service delivery in host communities.
Why is Uganda a developing country?
Despite being a Sub-Saharan African country with one of the best rates of poverty reduction, Uganda remains one of the world’s poorest countries. According to a 2016 poverty study, Uganda’s poverty rate fell dramatically between 2006 and 2013. The percentage of Ugandans living in poverty has decreased from 31.1 percent in 2006 to 19.7% in 2013.
The question today is whether this poverty reduction can be sustained, given Uganda’s lack of major non-monetary resources. Sufficient sanitation, electricity, health and well-being, education, and nutrition are among them. The causes of poverty in Uganda, as well as their consequences, are discussed here.
Leading Causes of Poverty in Uganda
- In Uganda, there are little safety net programs, which makes households more vulnerable to falling back into poverty. Only 1% of Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was spent on social security in 2013, according to reports. This figure is significantly lower than the Sub-Saharan African average of 2.8 percent. Because of this lack of social security, 35% of Ugandans rely on their life savings, while 25% rely on family. For the vast majority of people, this makes re-entering poverty quite likely.
- In Uganda, diseases are another source of poverty. With 131 deaths per 1,000 births, infant and child mortality rates remain high. In Uganda, families are frequently large. Larger families are more prone to slip into poverty due to a lack of cash and resources. Poor health also decreases a family’s ability to work, resulting in poverty being passed down down the generations.
- Between 2006 and 2013, agriculture led to a 79 percent reduction in poverty in Uganda, but there is still much opportunity for improvement. Despite the fact that agriculture provides a living for a substantial percentage of the people, there is still a labor shortage. Agriculture productivity must be improved further in order to create more jobs and lift people out of poverty.
- Ugandans are short on trained labor due to their heavy reliance on agriculture and the informal economy. Uganda’s ability to collect vital non-monetary resources is hampered by a lack of skilled labor, which limits Uganda’s subsistence possibilities. This also results in a lack of forward mobility, which perpetuates poverty.
Despite significant poverty reduction, Uganda’s poverty persists, indicating the need for additional government support and global contributions. More attention to foreign aid policies is required to sustain poverty reduction in emerging countries.
What is Uganda’s current economic situation?
Focus on Uganda’s Economic Growth The economy is expected to increase 5.5 percent in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.0 percent in 2023, according to economists.
In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
Is Uganda wealthy or impoverished?
- Despite reductions in poverty, Uganda remains one of the world’s poorest countries. In 1993, 56.4 percent of the population lived in poverty; by 2013, that number had dropped to 19.7 percent.
- Between 1993 and 2016, overall poverty rates dropped, however between 2013 and 2016, they climbed somewhat.
- While the number of persons classified as “poor” has decreased, the number of people who live above the poverty line but are at risk of going below it has risen.
- People in this group those who are not poor but are at risk of becoming poor are most likely to slip into poverty as a result of negative shocks, such as the consequences of Covid-19.
- At the national level, falling poverty belies less favourable regional developments. Poverty levels have risen in eastern, western, and central Uganda in recent years.
- Non-economic proxies of poverty, such as sector performance measures in education, health, and WASH, also show regional differences (water, sanitation and hygiene).
- Uganda’s poverty statistics, which is heavily concentrated at the national and regional levels, has gaps. Since 2014, there has been no official publication of poverty statistics at the district and parish levels.
- In 1990, Uganda’s national poverty level was set at US$0.88 to US$1.04 per person per day (the variation depends on region). It portrays poverty trends in a far more optimistic light than the World Bank’s extreme poverty definition of US$1.90 per person per day, which was modified in 2015. (This factsheet covers both poverty levels.)
Why is Uganda known as Africa’s Pearl?
Because of its vast biodiversity, color, profusion, sparkling life, and tranquil beauty, Uganda is known as Africa’s gem. Uganda has a wide range of attractions to offer, and you’re certain to find anything you need in the travel industry in Uganda.
Uganda is home to some of Africa’s most beautiful scenery, including crystal clear lakes, snow-capped mountains, tropical rain forests, semi-harvested savanna, primates, birds, and more. The country’s location on the equator is why Winston Churchill dubbed it the “Pearl of Africa,” describing it as a “fairy tale” with unique environmental qualities and a temperate climate. Words alone are insufficient to depict Uganda; you must visit the country for yourself.
Mountain gorillas are located only in three nations throughout the world: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Uganda. Uganda is home to half of the world’s mountain gorillas, making it the most popular tourist destination for this endangered species.
Uganda has the highest concentration of birds in Africa, with over 1040 species. Migratory birds from North Africa and Europe can be found in Uganda. With almost 600 kinds of birds, Queen Elizabeth is the number one birding attraction. All national parks provide possibilities for birding, and Kidepo Valley National Park is home to the world’s largest bird.
The spectacular Rwenzori ranges, often known as the moon mountains, will leave you speechless as you witness a diverse range of biological environments, including savannah grasslands, rainforests, heath, alpine, and permanent ice and snow. It’s the third highest mountain in Africa and the most challenging to climb, with some of its spectacular peaks covered in glaciers.
The old Nile, the world’s longest river, squeezing through a tight passage of seven meters wide and generating a 45-meter cascade before meandering in a tranquil stream to Lake Albert, may be found in Murchison Falls National Park. Over 450 bird species and a variety of mammal species can be found in the park. The Victoria Nile begins in the country’s east, in the world’s second largest freshwater lake and largest tropical lake.
The Ugandan people have a diverse cultural heritage, with several tribes preserving their ancestral cultures. The Kasubi royal tombs, which serve as a burial location for Buganda rulers, have been designated as a world cultural heritage site, and it is one of the most traditionally African-built structures in the sub-Saharan African region. There are several cultural sites around the country, as well as plenty to learn from the people, particularly the nomadic Karamojongs. Tourists may sample all of the city’s traditions at the Ndere cultural center. Uganda is home to more than 45 ethnic groups.
Uganda is home to a diverse range of wildlife, including tree climbing lions, which can also be found in Tanzania’s Lake Manyara. Other animals found in Uganda include lions, cheetahs, leopards, elephants, buffaloes, rhinos, bush bucks, water bucks, reed bucks, bush duikers, hyenas, Genet’s, hippocampus, bush bucks, and many others. The Big Five of Africa are guaranteed to be seen in Uganda. With approximately 1500 animal species, the plentiful wildlife may be found in the 12 game reserves and 10 national parks.
Ugandans are some of the friendliest people you’ll ever meet; they’re warm, welcoming, and always welcome to visitors. The majority of the inhabitants can communicate in basic English or Kiswahili.
PILLAR RANKINGS
Uganda has the best investment environment and enterprise conditions, but the worst economic conditions.
Conditions of Life. In comparison to a decade earlier, the most significant improvement was in Economic Quality.
Which East African country is the wealthiest?
Finance, transportation, infrastructure, tourism, and an abundance of crude oil are all major contributors to the country’s large GDP.
According to OPEC, the country exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, making it Africa’s largest crude oil exporter. Petroleum exports account for 10% of the country’s overall GDP and over 80% of the export sector’s earnings.
Nigeria has a variety of raw commodities and natural resources, in addition to petroleum, which contribute to the region’s prosperity. Coal, limestone, zinc, lead, tin, natural gas, niobium, and iron ore are among them. There is also enough fertile area for agriculture, which accounts for approximately 20% of GDP and produces cocoa and rubber. Nigeria’s enormous population has helped the country become Africa’s largest consumer store, and its digitally savvy citizens have contributed to the country’s rapidly rising IT sector.
Nigeria’s GDP expanded at a pace of 7% per year between 2000 and 2014, according to the World Bank, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. Due to political unrest, socioeconomic issues, and oil and production shocks, this has slowed to 2% in recent years. The government has placed a major emphasis on safeguarding its natural resources, attempting to reduce its dependency on oil refineries and processing units.
Nigeria, with its vibrant cultural legacy, diverse ethnicities, natural beauty, and vast population, remains Africa’s wealthiest country and the continent’s top producer in terms of GDP output.