According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ “advance” estimate, real gross domestic product (GDP) declined at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1). Real GDP fell by 5.0 percent in the first quarter.
The GDP estimate issued today is based on incomplete or subject to further adjustment by the source agency source data (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). On August 27, 2020, the “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more full data, will be revealed.
What was the second quarter’s GDP in 2020?
PCE increased as a result of increases in both services (headed by food services and lodging) and commodities (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products). Increases in equipment (headed by transportation equipment) and intellectual property items accounted for the growth in nonresidential fixed investment (led by research and development). The increase in exports was due to an increase in both products and services (dominated by non-automotive capital goods) (led by travel). A drop in retail trade inventories led to a drop in private inventory investment. The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. Nondefense services decreased in the second quarter as banks’ processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications on behalf of the federal government reduced.
In the second quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 13.0 percent on an annual basis, or $684.4 billion, to $22.72 trillion. Current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion, in the first quarter (revised, tables 1 and 3). The Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website has more information on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the second quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.7 percent, compared to 3.9 percent (revised) in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.4 percent, compared to a 3.8 percent gain in the previous quarter (revised). The PCE price index climbed 6.1 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 2.7 percent overall (revised).
Personal Income
In the second quarter, current-dollar personal income fell $1.32 trillion, or 22.0 percent, compared to an increase of $2.33 trillion (revised), or 56.8%, in the first quarter. The decrease was primarily due to a reduction in government social benefits associated with pandemic relief programs, particularly the reduction in direct economic impact payments to households established by the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan Act (table 8). Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income provides more information on issues that affect personal income.
In the second quarter, disposable personal income fell $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, compared to a rise of $2.27 trillion, or 63.7 percent (revised), in the first quarter. In contrast to a 57.6% gain in real disposable personal income, real disposable personal income fell by 30.6 percent.
Personal spending climbed by $680.8 billion, following a $538.8 billion increase. An increase in PCE for services drove the increase in outlays.
In the second quarter, personal savings totaled $1.97 trillion, down from $4.07 trillion (revised) in the first quarter.
In the second quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a proportion of disposable personal income) was 10.9 percent, down from 20.8 percent in the first quarter.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the primary source data and assumptions used in the advance estimate. For each release, a thorough Key Source Data and Assumptions file is also available. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.
Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts
The Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts is included in today’s publication; the updated Industry Economic Accounts, as well as the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2021, will be provided on September 30, 2021. The update covered the period from the first quarter of 1999 through the first quarter of 2021, with revisions to GDP, GDI, and their primary components. The base year is still 2012. More information on the 2021 Annual Update is given in the May Survey of Current Business page, GDP and the Economy.
From the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at a pace of 2.3 percent annually, the same as previously reported. Real GDP declined at an annual rate of 19.2% from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020, which is the same as previously reported. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 14.1 percent from the second quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previously released estimate.
Previously released estimates, which are superseded by today’s publication, are located in BEA’s archives.
Updates for the First Quarter of 2021
Real GDP is expected to rise 6.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), 0.1 percentage point lower than previously reported. Downward revisions to federal government spending, state and local government spending, and exports were largely offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment in the revision.
Real GDI is now expected to have climbed 6.3 percent in the first quarter (table 1), compared to 7.6 percent in the prior released figures. Compensation was the biggest factor in the negative revision, which was based on fresh first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
The price index for gross domestic purchases is now anticipated to have risen 3.9 percent in the first quarter, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 3.8 percent, which is 0.1 percentage point higher than the prior estimate. The PCE price index grew 2.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point more than previously reported, when food and energy prices were excluded.
In the second quarter of 2021, what was the GDP?
PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government expenditure all increased in the second quarter, but were partially offset by losses in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
PCE increased as a result of increases in both services (headed by food services and lodging) and commodities (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products, as well as clothing and footwear). Increases in equipment (headed by transportation equipment) and intellectual property items accounted for the growth in nonresidential fixed investment (led by software as well as research and development). Increases in goods (dominated by non-automotive capital items) and services accounted for the increase in exports (led by travel). A drop in retail trade inventories led to a drop in private inventory investment. The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. Nondefense services decreased in the second quarter as banks’ processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications on behalf of the federal government reduced.
In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP climbed 13.4 percent on an annual basis, or $702.8 billion, to $22.74 trillion. GDP climbed by 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion, in the first quarter (table 1 and table 3). The Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website has more information on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the second quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.8%, unchanged from the second estimate (table 4). The PCE price index grew 6.5 percent in the second estimate, unchanged from the previous estimate. The PCE price index grew 6.1 percent, unchanged from the second estimate, when food and energy prices were excluded.
In the second quarter, real gross domestic income (GDI) climbed by 2.3 percent, compared to 6.3 percent in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, climbed 4.5 percent, compared to a 6.3 percent gain in the first quarter (table 1).
In the second quarter, profits from current production (business profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) climbed $267.8 billion, compared to $123.9 billion in the first quarter (table 10).
Domestic financial businesses raised their profits by $52.8 billion in the second quarter, compared to $1.3 billion in the first. Non-financial corporations’ profits increased in the United States.
$221.3 billion, up $133.2 billion from the previous year. Profits in the rest of the world fell $6.2 billion, compared to a $10.6 billion drop in the United States. Receipts grew $27.4 billion in the second quarter, while payments jumped $33.6 billion.
Real GDP climbed 6.7 percent in the third estimate for the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. The increase was mostly due to increases in PCE, exports, and private inventory investment, which were partially offset by increases in imports and decreases in residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending. See the Technical Note and the “Additional Information” section below for more information.
What is the GDP for the current quarter?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What is our current GDP?
- As of 2017, India’s nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $2,650,725,335,364 (USD).
- In 2017, India’s real GDP (constant, inflation-adjusted) was $2,660,371,703,953.
- In 2017, the GDP Growth Rate was 6.68 percent, a change of 177,938,082,996 US dollars from 2016, when Real GDP was $2,482,433,620,957.
- In 2017, India’s GDP per capita (with a population of 1,338,676,785 people) was $1,987, up $113 from 2016’s $1,874; this indicates a 6.0 percent increase in GDP per capita.
In 2021, how much did the GDP grow?
As the economy continues to recover from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, US GDP growth surged in the fourth quarter, expanding at a 6.9% annual rate, up from the preceding four quarters’ rate of growth. Increased inventory investment and increased service consumption accounted for all of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased by 5.5 percent in the first four quarters of 2021, the fastest rate since 1984.
In the fourth quarter, the economy was most likely producing at or near its full potential. The economy was still trending 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Even if the pandemic had not occurred, the economy is unlikely to have continued to develop at the same rate in 2020 and 2021 as it had in previous years. Prior to the pandemic, forecasters projected a slowdown since the economy was close to or at maximum employment, making it improbable that job gains would continue at the same rate. Furthermore, because of higher fatalities and limited immigration, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected labor force, and low investment, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected capital stock, the pandemic itself has certainly diminished potential.
Even while the economy was near to where it would have been had the epidemic and the government’s response not occurred, the economy’s makeup was drastically changed. On the supply side, employment remained low (because to low labor force participation), but this was compensated for by longer average hours and improved productivity. Final expenditures were biased towards commodities and residential investment, rather than services, business fixed investment, inventories, and net exports, on the demand side. In the fourth quarter, the demand side began to take on a more regular composition, but it remained highly skewed.
In the first quarter of 2022, how much do you estimate real GDP will grow?
According to 36 analysts polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the US economy for the current quarter looks weaker than it did in November. Forecasters expect real GDP to rise at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2022, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous survey’s prediction of 3.9 percent. The panel predicts that real GDP will rise at a pace of 3.7 percent this year, 2.7 percent in 2023, and 2.3 percent in 2024, based on an annual-average over annual-average calculation. The annual projections haven’t changed much since they were released three months ago.
The prognosis for growth is accompanied by downward revisions to the unemployment rate projections. The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 3.9 percent this quarter to 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to forecasts. The panelists expect that the unemployment rate will fall from 3.7 percent in 2022 to 3.4 percent in 2023, then rise slightly during the next two years, based on the annual-average computation. Annual average forecasts for 2022 to 2024 are 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points lower than in the previous survey.
Job growth predictions for the first two quarters of 2022 have been revised upward by forecasters. The annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment is projected to grow at a monthly rate of 430,900 in 2022, which is slightly changed from the previous forecast. (The year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment is converted to a monthly rate for these annual-average predictions.)
Is a higher or lower GDP preferable?
Gross domestic product (GDP) has traditionally been used by economists to gauge economic success. If GDP is increasing, the economy is doing well and the country is progressing. On the other side, if GDP declines, the economy may be in jeopardy, and the country may be losing ground.
What was GDP in the fourth quarter?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, foods, feeds, and drinks, as well as industrial supplies and materials, were major contributors to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The increase in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, financial services and insurance, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. The drop in state and local government spending corresponded to a drop in gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in real GDP was mostly due to increases in exports and residential investment, as well as increases in private inventory investment and consumer expenditure, which were somewhat offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 14.6 percent on an annual basis, or $806.2 billion, to $24.01 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file contains more detail on the source data that underpins the estimations.
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter (table 4). The PCE price index grew 6.3 percent, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous estimate. The PCE price index grew 5.0 percent excluding food and energy prices, a 0.1 percentage point upward revision.
Updates to GDP
From the “advance” estimate, the rise in fourth-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point. Upward adjustments in nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were partially offset by downward revisions in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending in the updated estimates. Imports have been reduced. Refer to the Technical Note for more information. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
Is a high GDP beneficial?
GDP is significant because it provides information on the size and performance of an economy. The pace of increase in real GDP is frequently used as a gauge of the economy’s overall health. An increase in real GDP is viewed as a sign that the economy is performing well in general.
In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world: