Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, foods, feeds, and drinks, as well as industrial supplies and materials, were major contributors to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The increase in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, financial services and insurance, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. The drop in state and local government spending corresponded to a drop in gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in real GDP was mostly due to increases in exports and residential investment, as well as increases in private inventory investment and consumer expenditure, which were somewhat offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 14.6 percent on an annual basis, or $806.2 billion, to $24.01 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file contains more detail on the source data that underpins the estimations.
The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter (table 4). The PCE price index grew 6.3 percent, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous estimate. The PCE price index grew 5.0 percent excluding food and energy prices, a 0.1 percentage point upward revision.
Updates to GDP
From the “advance” estimate, the rise in fourth-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point. Upward adjustments in nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were partially offset by downward revisions in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending in the updated estimates. Imports have been reduced. Refer to the Technical Note for more information. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What was the fourth-quarter 2019 real GDP growth rate?
As the economy continues to recover from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, US GDP growth surged in the fourth quarter, expanding at a 6.9% annual rate, up from the preceding four quarters’ rate of growth. Increased inventory investment and increased service consumption accounted for all of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased by 5.5 percent in the first four quarters of 2021, the fastest rate since 1984.
In the fourth quarter, the economy was most likely producing at or near its full potential. The economy was still trending 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Even if the pandemic had not occurred, the economy is unlikely to have continued to develop at the same rate in 2020 and 2021 as it had in previous years. Prior to the pandemic, forecasters projected a slowdown since the economy was close to or at maximum employment, making it improbable that job gains would continue at the same rate. Furthermore, because of higher fatalities and limited immigration, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected labor force, and low investment, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected capital stock, the pandemic itself has certainly diminished potential.
Even while the economy was near to where it would have been had the epidemic and the government’s response not occurred, the economy’s makeup was drastically changed. On the supply side, employment remained low (because to low labor force participation), but this was compensated for by longer average hours and improved productivity. Final expenditures were biased towards commodities and residential investment, rather than services, business fixed investment, inventories, and net exports, on the demand side. In the fourth quarter, the demand side began to take on a more regular composition, but it remained highly skewed.
In 2020, what was the actual GDP?
The fourth quarter saw a 6.7 percent growth in real gross output, which is a measure of an industry’s sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs). Government remained constant, but private goods-producing businesses grew by 7.2 percent and private services-producing sectors grew by 7.8 percent (table 16). Durable goods manufacturing, professional, scientific, and technical services, and health care and social support were among the 22 industry categories that contributed to the growth in real gross production. Educational services, utilities, and housing and food services were among the industries that saw significant declines in gross output.
In 2020, real GDP fell 3.5 percent (from the 2019 annual level to the 2020 annual level), compared to a 2.2 percent growth in 2019. (table 1).
PCE, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government decreased real GDP in 2020, partially offset by increases in federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports are down (table 2).
A drop in services more than compensated for the decrease in PCE in 2020. (led by food services and accommodations, health care, and recreation services). The drop in exports was due to a drop in both services (driven by travel) and goods (mainly non-automotive capital goods). Private inventory investment fell as a result of broad losses in retail trade (mostly auto dealers) and wholesale trade (mainly durable goods industries). Structures (dominated by mining exploration, shafts, and wells) and equipment (headed by transportation equipment) decreased in nonresidential fixed investment, which was partly offset by an increase in intellectual property products (more than accounted for by software). The drop in state and local government spending corresponded to a drop in consumer spending (led by compensation).
In 2020, the increase in federal government spending reflected an increase in nondefense consumer spending (led by an increase in purchases of intermediate services that supported the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government). Increases in upgrades, as well as brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, accounted for the majority of the increase in residential fixed investment.
In 2020, current-dollar GDP fell 2.3 percent, or $496.6 billion, to $20.94 trillion, compared to a 4.0 percent growth, or $821.3 billion, in 2019. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2020, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 1.2 percent, compared to 1.6 percent in 2019. (table 4). In 2020, the PCE price index climbed 1.2 percent, compared to 1.5 percent in 2019. The PCE price index grew 1.4 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.7 percent overall.
Real GDP fell by 2.4 percent in 2020, when measured from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. (table 6). In comparison, in 2019 there was a 2.3 percent gain.
The price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.2 percent in 2020, as assessed from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. In comparison, in 2019 there was a 1.4 percent gain. The PCE price index climbed by 1.2 percent, compared to a 1.5 percent increase in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.4 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.6 percent overall.
In 2020, real GDI fell 3.5 percent, compared to a rise of 1.8 percent in 2019. (table 1). In 2020, the average of real GDP and real GDI fell 3.5 percent, compared to a 2.0 percent growth in 2019.
Profits from current output fell $130.2 billion in 2020, compared to a $7.6 billion increase in 2019. (table 10). Domestic financial businesses’ profits fell by $0.5 billion, compared to an increase of $38.0 billion. Domestic nonfinancial firms’ profits fell $55.7 billion, compared to a $23.3 billion drop in the previous year. Profits in the rest of the world fell $74.0 billion, compared to a $7.1 billion drop in the United States. Receipts fell $117.8 billion in 2020, while payments fell $43.8 billion.
Private goods-producing industries fell 2.7 percent in 2020, private services-producing industries down 3.9 percent, and government fell 2.1 percent (table 12). In total, 16 of the 22 industry groupings contributed to the real GDP decline in 2020. (table 13).
Is a higher or lower GDP preferable?
Gross domestic product (GDP) has traditionally been used by economists to gauge economic success. If GDP is increasing, the economy is doing well and the country is progressing. On the other side, if GDP declines, the economy may be in jeopardy, and the country may be losing ground.
What is the current GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
In 2021, what was the GDP?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, what was the GDP?
The rise in exports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by industrial supplies and materials). Nonresidential fixed investment increased as a result of increases in all components, headed by equipment (mainly transportation equipment). Spending on services (headed by health care) accounted for more than half of the growth in PCE; spending on products fell (led by food and beverages). The rise in residential fixed investment was mostly due to new single-family house construction. An increase in manufacturing, partially offset by a reduction in retail commerce, more than offset the increase in private inventory investment.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 6.1 percent on an annual basis, or $317.6 billion, to $21.49 trillion. GDP climbed by 38.3 percent, or $1.65 trillion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3). The “Key Underlying Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website has more detail on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.8 percent, compared to 3.3 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.6 percent, compared to 3.7 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 1.4 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 3.4 percent overall.
Real GDP grew 0.1 percentage point in the second estimate for the fourth quarter, owing mostly to upward revisions to residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending, which were somewhat offset by a downward revision to PCE. See the Technical Note for further information. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.
What is a reasonable GDP figure?
The ideal GDP growth rate is between between 2% and 3%. For the fourth quarter of 2021, the quarterly GDP rate was 3.3 percent, indicating that the economy increased by that much between September and December. If the current trend continues, the expansion will continue. The GDP growth rate is a measure of the economy’s health.
What happens if the GDP is excessively high?
- Individual investors must develop a level of understanding of GDP and inflation that will aid their decision-making without overwhelming them with unneeded information.
- Most companies will not be able to expand their earnings (which is the key driver of stock performance) if overall economic activity is dropping or simply holding steady; nevertheless, too much GDP growth is also harmful.
- Inflation is caused by GDP growth over time, and if allowed unchecked, inflation can turn into hyperinflation.
- Most economists nowadays think that a moderate bit of inflation, around 1% to 2% per year, is more useful to the economy than harmful.
What constitutes a poor GDP growth rate?
Economists frequently agree that the ideal rate of GDP growth is between 2% and 3%. 5 To maintain a natural rate of unemployment, growth must be at least 3%.
What is the GDP of the United States in 2022?
According to our econometric models, the US GDP will trend around 22790.00 USD Billion in 2022 and 23420.00 USD Billion in 2023 in the long run.