India’s economy is a developing market economy with a middle income. It has the sixth-largest nominal GDP and the third-largest purchasing power parity economy in the world (PPP). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India ranks 145th by nominal GDP and 122nd by nominal GDP per capita (PPP). From 1947 through 1991, consecutive administrations advocated protectionist economic policies that included substantial government intervention and regulation. In the form of the License Raj, this is referred to as dirigism. Following the conclusion of the Cold War and a severe balance-of-payments crisis in 1991, India adopted substantial economic liberalization. Annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7% since the beginning of the twenty-first century, and India has surpassed China as the world’s fastest growing major economy from 2013 to 2018 and in 2021. From the first through the nineteenth centuries, India had the world’s largest economy for the majority of the two millennia.
The Indian economy’s long-term development prospects remain optimistic, thanks to its young population and low dependency ratio, healthy savings and investment rates, and increasing globalisation and integration into the global economy. Due to the shocks of “demonetisation” in 2016 and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax in 2017, the economy slowed in 2017. Domestic private consumption accounts for over 70% of India’s GDP. The country’s consumer market is still the world’s sixth largest. Apart from individual consumption, government spending, investment, and exports all contribute to India’s GDP. Pandemic had an impact on trade in 2020, with India becoming the world’s 14th largest importer and 21st largest exporter. Since January 1, 1995, India has been a member of the World Trade Organization. On the Ease of Doing Business Index, it is ranked 63rd, while on the Global Competitiveness Report, it is ranked 68th. With 500 million workers, India had the world’s second-largest labor force. India boasts one of the biggest concentrations of billionaires in the world, as well as substantial income disparity. Fewer than 2% of Indians pay income taxes due to a variety of exclusions.
During the global financial crisis of 2008, the economy experienced a little slowdown. To increase economy and generate demand, India implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Economic growth picked up in the years after that. According to the World Bank, India must focus on public sector reform, infrastructure, agricultural and rural development, removal of land and labor regulations, financial inclusion, boosting private investment and exports, education, and public health in order to achieve sustainable economic development.
The United States, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, and Malaysia were India’s ten major trading partners in 2020. India received $74.4 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 201920. The service sector, the computer industry, and the telecom industry were the major sectors for FDI inflows. India has free trade agreements in place or in the works with a number of countries, including ASEAN, SAFTA, Mercosur, South Korea, Japan, and a number of others.
The service sector accounts for half of GDP and is still developing at a rapid pace, while the industrial and agricultural sectors employ the majority of the workforce. By market capitalization, the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange are among the world’s largest stock exchanges. India is the world’s sixth-largest manufacturer, employing over 57 million people and accounting for 3% of global manufacturing output. Rural India accounts for almost 66 percent of the population and accounts for roughly half of the country’s GDP. It has the fourth-largest foreign-exchange reserves in the world, valued at $631.920 billion. India’s national debt is large, at 86 percent of GDP, and its fiscal deficit is 9.5 percent of GDP. The government-owned banks in India were beset with bad debt, resulting in slow lending growth. At the same time, the NBFC sector has been hit by a liquidity problem. India is dealing with moderate unemployment, rising income disparity, and declining aggregate demand. In FY 2019, India’s gross domestic savings rate was 30.1 percent of GDP. Independent economists and financial institutions have accused the government of falsifying different economic figures, particularly GDP growth, in recent years. India’s GDP in the first quarter of FY22 (Rs 32.38 lakh crore) is roughly 9% lower than in the first quarter of FY20 (Rs 35.67 lakh crore) in 2021.
India is the world’s largest maker of generic pharmaceuticals, and its pharmaceutical industry supplies more than half of the world’s vaccination need. With $191 billion in sales and over four million employees, India’s IT industry is a major exporter of IT services. The chemical sector in India is immensely diverse, with a market value of $178 billion. The tourist sector employs approximately 42 million people and provides roughly 9.2% of India’s GDP. India is the world’s second-largest producer of food and agriculture, with $35.09 billion in agricultural exports. In terms of direct, indirect, and induced effects in all sectors of the economy, the construction and real estate sector ranks third among the 14 key industries. The Indian textiles sector is worth $100 billion, contributing 13% of industrial output and 2.3 percent of GDP while directly employing nearly 45 million people. By the number of mobile phone, smartphone, and internet users, India’s telecommunications industry is the world’s second largest. It is both the world’s 23rd and third-largest oil producer and consumer. India has the world’s fifth-largest vehicle sector in terms of production. India’s retail market is valued $1.17 trillion, accounting for almost 10% of the country’s GDP. It also boasts one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets in the world. India possesses the world’s fourth-largest natural resources, with the mining industry accounting for 11% of industrial GDP and 2.5 percent of total GDP. It’s also the second-largest coal producer, second-largest cement producer, second-largest steel producer, and third-largest electricity generator on the planet.
In 2020, what would India’s GDP be?
“Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2020-21 is estimated at 198.01 lakh crore, down from 200.75 lakh crore in 2019-20, suggesting a decrease of 1.4 percent in 2020-21 compared to 6.2 percent increase in 2019-20,” according to the statement.
What is India’s current GDP?
- As of 2017, India’s nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $2,650,725,335,364 (USD).
- In 2017, India’s real GDP (constant, inflation-adjusted) was $2,660,371,703,953.
- In 2017, the GDP Growth Rate was 6.68 percent, a change of 177,938,082,996 US dollars from 2016, when Real GDP was $2,482,433,620,957.
- In 2017, India’s GDP per capita (with a population of 1,338,676,785 people) was $1,987, up $113 from 2016’s $1,874; this indicates a 6.0 percent increase in GDP per capita.
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What will be the GDP in 2021?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
What is the complete form of GDP?
The total monetary or market worth of all finished goods and services produced inside a country’s borders in a certain time period is known as GDP. It serves as a comprehensive scorecard of a country’s economic health because it is a wide measure of entire domestic production.
In India, how is GDP calculated?
- The GDP of India is estimated using two methods: one based on economic activity (at factor cost) and the other based on expenditure (at market prices).
- The performance of eight distinct industries is evaluated using the factor cost technique.
- The expenditure-based method shows how different aspects of the economy, such as trade, investments, and personal consumption, are performing.
What accounts for India’s high GDP?
India’s long-term prosperity has been fueled by an increasing share of investment and exports, with consumption playing a significant role. Productivity advances both in labor productivity and total factor productivity have also characterized growth.
In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
In 2022, what will India’s GDP be?
On Thursday, Moody’s decreased its prediction for India’s GDP growth to 9.1 percent in 2022, down from 9.5 percent previously. According to the credit ratings firm, the GDP would grow by 5.4 percent in 2023.