The gross domestic product (GDP) is a quarterly economic measure that shows how much production a country produces. In the two months leading up to the release of the final number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States produces two estimates of quarterly GDP, known as advance and preliminary estimates:
- The advance estimate of GDP is released in the first month after each quarter and is based on estimates of economic activity for a portion of the quarter (often two of the three months).
- The preliminary estimate is released the month after the advance estimate, and it accounts for modifications to economic data from the months used to produce the advance estimate, as well as new data.
We looked at the pattern of payroll employment data adjustments in a recent Economic Synopses essay. We discovered that the sign of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revision to payroll employment is more likely to be positive (revised up) during expansions and negative (revised down) during recessions. We suggested that this presented a problem for policymakers who relied on the timely publication of economic indicators to make proper policy decisions.
We wondered if the GDP releases had the same asymmetrythat is, if there was a systematic discrepancy between the final number and, say, the preliminary release. The difference between the final and preliminary releases is depicted in the graph below, with recessions highlighted in gray.
While there are no evident patterns, at the start of recessions, there are usually huge negative revisions from preliminary to final releases.
What is the reason for the disparity between the preliminary and final GDP estimates? The differences could be due to the time period they’re measuring or the methods they’re using to collect data.
What is the current GDP of the United States in the year 2021?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Gross Domestic Product
Each year and quarter, the BEA calculates the country’s GDP. Every month, however, new GDP figures are released. Why? Because the BEA estimates GDP three times per quarter. The advance estimate is an early look based on the greatest information available at the time, and it comes roughly a month after the quarter ends. The second and third estimates each include additional source data that was not accessible the month before, resulting in increased accuracy.
More to know
The gross domestic product of the United States is in the trillions of dollars. The term “GDP” is frequently used to refer to a percentage figure. This is the rate at which real GDP changed from the prior quarter or year. To compare different periods, “real” or “chained” GDP data have been adjusted to exclude the impacts of inflation over time.
Estimates of “current-dollar” or “nominal” GDP are based on market prices during the measurement period.
Seasonal adjustments are made to GDP data to exclude the influence of yearly trends like winter weather, holidays, and industry output schedules. This guarantees that the remaining fluctuations in GDP better represent genuine economic activity patterns. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also publishes GDP numbers that are not seasonally adjusted.
Unless otherwise noted, quarterly GDP data are given at annual rates for simplicity of comparison.
GDP by State
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates the value of products and services produced in each state and the District of Columbia on a quarterly and annual basis. The data includes breakdowns of the contributions of various industries to each of these economies.
GDP by County, Metro, and Other Areas
Annual GDP statistics are given for counties, metropolitan areas, and a few other statistical areas. They include the contributions of 34 industries to the local economy. In December 2019, the BEA released its first official GDP statistics for the nation’s 3,113 counties and county equivalents.
GDP for U.S. Territories
Annual GDP figures, including industry contributions, are issued for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the United States Virgin Islands.
GDP by Industry
These figures, which are published quarterly and annually, quantify each industry’s performance and contributions to the general economy, often known as “value added.” The data also includes gross output, employee compensation, gross operating surplus, and taxes for each industry.
When do economic indicators come out?
The Federal Reserve publishes the “Current Economic Conditions” report, sometimes known as the Beige Book, eight times a year. Anecdotal information on current economic conditions in each Federal Reserve Bank’s District is gathered through reports from Bank and Branch directors, as well as interviews with significant business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. This information is summarized in the Beige Book by District and Sector.
The United States Census Bureau has released a study that aims to provide wide and timely assessments of combined changes in domestic retail, wholesale, and manufacturing activity. The data for the report comes from three different surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey will have been issued by the time this report is published, leaving only the Monthly Retail Trade Survey as the only new piece of data in the report.
The US Census Bureau publishes estimates of total new construction value for the following categories each month: residential, private nonresidential, farm, regulated investor-owned utilities, and public. Housing starts and sales data from the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction are used to estimate the cost of new single-family houses being built each month. Private nonresidential construction is based on data from McGraw-Hill Construction and a months-long “Construction Progress Reporting Survey.”
On the final Tuesday of each month, at 10:00 a.m., the Consumer Board releases its index.
At 10:00 a.m. on the second and fourth Fridays of each month, the University of Michigan distributes a preliminary survey and a final survey.
The Conference Board’s Indices are based on a monthly survey of 5,000 households in the United States.
Five questions about the state of the economy are included in the survey:
The Conference Board publishes three indices: I Consumer Confidence, which is based on replies to the five questions above; (ii) Present Situation Index, which is based on responses to questions 1 and 3; and (iii) Expectations Index, which is based on questions 2, 4, and 5.
The Consumer Sentiment Index at the University of Michigan is based on telephone household interviews.
The data, which was released by the Federal Reserve, shows the amount of outstanding consumer debt.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is compiled by the US Department of Labor, is a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households over time and serves as an inflation indicator.
The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey, released by the United States Bureau of Census, is currently the only survey that offers broad-based monthly statistical data on the economic circumstances in the domestic manufacturing sector. Its purpose is to assess existing industrial activities as well as forecast future production obligations. The value of shipments represents the value of items delivered by domestic producers throughout the month. Estimates of new orders are used as a predictor of future production commitments, and they indicate the current shipments (sales) value of new orders received during the month, minus cancellations.
The Current Population Survey (household survey) and the Current Employment Statistics Survey are two surveys compiled by the US Department of Labor (establishment survey). The household survey collects data on labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The establishment survey collects data on nonfarm payroll workers’ employment, hours, and incomes. The report serves as a general gauge of economic activity and inflation.
The following are the tentative dates for the Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2022:
The FOMC meets eight times a year on a regular basis. The Committee examines economic and financial conditions, decides the appropriate monetary policy stance, and assesses the risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustained economic growth at these sessions. The Federal Funds Rate is set by the FOMC at each meeting.
The minutes of each Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released around three weeks after the meeting.
The minutes frequently contain hints about the FOMC’s future rate policy.
GDP is the market value of goods and services produced in the United States by labor and property.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce publishes GDP quarterly.
The National Association of Realtors publishes housing sales data that is based on transaction closings in a given month and indicates the total amount of sales for a year assuming a steady rate of sales.
Single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops are all available for purchase.
The Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development collaborated to release this report.
The report includes information on the number of new single-family houses sold, the number of new single-family houses for sale, and the median and average sales prices of new homes sold.
Manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities are all covered by the Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production, as well as associated capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates.
The production index calculates real output as a percentage of real output in a base year, which is presently 2002. The capacity index, which is a forecast of long-term potential output, is also given as a percentage of 2002 output. Private trade organisations and government entities provided data for the index.
At 10:00 a.m. on the first business day of each month, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is released.
At 10:00 a.m. on the third business day of each month, the ISM Services Report On Business is released.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a professional group for supply management, publishes two reports monthly: the Manufacturing ISM and the Services ISM.
The statistics are based on monthly polls of about 400 businesses to assess whether the economy is growing or shrinking.
Changes in production, new orders, new export orders, imports, employment, stocks, prices, lead-times, and the timeliness of supplier deliveries in their organizations are among the items considered in the survey when comparing the current month to the previous month.
The United States Department of Labor provides data on initial jobless claims, which counts the number of people who have applied for state unemployment benefits.
The Philadelphia Fed usually releases its monthly report at 10:00 a.m. on the third Thursday of the month. For the current month, the Chicago PMI is usually released on the final working day of the month.
Reports on economic activity in their respective regions are released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago.
The reports are regarded as good forerunners of the remainder of the United States’ economic conditions.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce issued data on changes in average personal income and expenditures.
Individuals’ personal income is the total amount of money they earn from all sources. Consumer purchases of durable and nondurable products, as well as services, are included in personal outlays. The Implicit Price Deflator, also known as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and is included in this report.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) is a collection of indexes that track the average change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time.
PPIs are used to track price changes from the seller’s perspective.
The US Department of Labor has produced data that shows the link between real output and the labor time (cost) required to produce it.
In collaboration with the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the US Census Bureau News released this report. The data shows the monthly changes in housing starts, building permits issued, and dwellings finished.
The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services report is published by the United States Census Bureau to give national estimates of annual and monthly sales for establishments classified in the retail trade and food services industries.
The data for wholesale inventories comes from a survey done by the US Census Bureau to give national estimates of monthly sales, end-of-month inventories, and inventory-to-sales ratios by type of business for wholesale enterprises in the US.
Other agencies use the data for economic study, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which uses the figures as an input to estimate gross domestic product sales and inventories.
What is the current GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
Is a higher or lower GDP preferable?
- The gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary worth of all products and services exchanged in a given economy.
- GDP growth signifies economic strength, whereas GDP decline indicates economic weakness.
- When GDP is derived through economic devastation, such as a car accident or a natural disaster, rather than truly productive activity, it can provide misleading information.
- By integrating more variables in the calculation, the Genuine Progress Indicator aims to enhance GDP.
What is the GDP of the United States in 2022?
According to our econometric models, the US GDP will trend around 22790.00 USD Billion in 2022 and 23420.00 USD Billion in 2023 in the long run.
Is the economy doing well right now?
Indeed, the year is starting with little signs of progress, as the late-year spread of omicron, along with the fading tailwind of fiscal stimulus, has experts across Wall Street lowering their GDP projections.
When you add in a Federal Reserve that has shifted from its most accommodative policy in history to hawkish inflation-fighters, the picture changes dramatically. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator currently shows a 0.1 percent increase in first-quarter GDP.
“The economy is slowing and downshifting,” said Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis’ head economist for the Americas and former chief economist for President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council. “It isn’t a recession now, but it will be if the Fed becomes overly aggressive.”
GDP climbed by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, capping a year in which the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States increased by 5.7 percent on an annualized basis. That followed a 3.4 percent drop in 2020, the steepest but shortest recession in US history, caused by a pandemic.
Download the entire news release (PDF 120KB)
21 February 2022 According to provisional estimates, GDP in the OECD region increased by 1.2 percent between the third and fourth quarters of 2021, slightly higher than the 1.1 percent increase seen between the second and third quarters.
Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the G7 accelerated to 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 0.9 percent the previous quarter, thanks to increases in the United States (1.7 percent, up from 0.6 percent), Canada (1.6 percent, up from 1.3 percent), and Japan (1.6 percent, up from 1.3 percent) (1.3 percent , compared with minus 0.7 percent ).
In Q4 2021, GDP growth fell significantly in many European economies, including France (to 0.7 percent, down from 3.1 percent the previous quarter) and Italy (to 0.6 percent , compared with 2.6 percent ). Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.7 percent in Q4 2021, compared to 1.7 percent growth in Q3 2021. In Q4 2021, GDP growth in the United Kingdom stabilized at 1.0 percent.
In comparison to Q4 2019, Canada’s GDP has already surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 0.2 percent, joining the United States and France in regaining their pre-pandemic levels in Q2 2021 and Q3 2021, respectively. Other G7 countries’ GDP remained below pre-pandemic levels, with Germany having the greatest gap at 1.5 percent below what was recorded in Q4 2019.
Final domestic demand in the United States increased by 0.5 percent in Q4 2021, with stock rebuilding accounting for 1.2 percentage points of the 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. Private spending (1.4 percentage points) and exports (0.2 percentage points) were the key drivers of Q4 GDP growth in Japan, while government consumption, investment, and destocking each took 0.1 percentage points away from overall growth.
Colombia and Israel, among other OECD nations having statistics for the fourth quarter of 2021, had the highest GDP growth rates (4.3 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively), followed by Hungary (2.1 percent), Spain (2.0 percent), Poland (1.7 percent), Portugal (1.6 percent), and Sweden (1.6 percent) (1.4 percent ). Austria (minus 2.2 percent) and Latvia (minus 2.2 percent) both had decreases (minus 0.1 percent ).
In terms of overall growth in 2021, preliminary estimates show that GDP in the OECD area climbed by 5.5 percent in real terms, following a steep drop in 2020 (minus 4.6 percent) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The United Kingdom’s GDP shrank the most among G7 countries in 2020 (minus 9.4%), but it grew the fastest in 2021. (7.5 percent ). In 2021, France’s GDP grew by 7.0 percent after falling by 7.9 percent in 2020, while Italy’s economy grew by 6.4 percent in 2021 after contracting by 8.9 percent in 2020.
Quarterly GDP, Total, Percentage Change, Previous Period, Quarterly, Last 8 Quarters (OECD Chart)
Quarterly National Accounts: Quarterly Growth Rates of Real GDP (Source: Quarterly National Accounts)
How often is the US economy’s GDP reported?
Defined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The sum is usually given in dollars, with the growth rate expressed as a percentage change from one period to the next (where the time period is typically quarterly or yearly). The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States publishes this number on a quarterly basis.