In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
What is the frequency of GDP data releases?
The gross domestic product (GDP) is a quarterly economic measure that shows how much production a country produces. In the two months leading up to the release of the final number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States produces two estimates of quarterly GDP, known as advance and preliminary estimates:
- The advance estimate of GDP is released in the first month after each quarter and is based on estimates of economic activity for a portion of the quarter (often two of the three months).
- The preliminary estimate is released the month after the advance estimate, and it accounts for modifications to economic data from the months used to produce the advance estimate, as well as new data.
We looked at the pattern of payroll employment data adjustments in a recent Economic Synopses essay. We discovered that the sign of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revision to payroll employment is more likely to be positive (revised up) during expansions and negative (revised down) during recessions. We suggested that this presented a problem for policymakers who relied on the timely publication of economic indicators to make proper policy decisions.
We wondered if the GDP releases had the same asymmetrythat is, if there was a systematic discrepancy between the final number and, say, the preliminary release. The difference between the final and preliminary releases is depicted in the graph below, with recessions highlighted in gray.
While there are no evident patterns, at the start of recessions, there are usually huge negative revisions from preliminary to final releases.
What is the reason for the disparity between the preliminary and final GDP estimates? The differences could be due to the time period they’re measuring or the methods they’re using to collect data.
What was the second quarter of 2021’s GDP?
PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government expenditure all increased in the second quarter, but were partially offset by losses in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, increased (table 2).
PCE increased as a result of increases in both services (headed by food services and lodging) and commodities (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products, as well as clothing and footwear). Increases in equipment (headed by transportation equipment) and intellectual property items accounted for the growth in nonresidential fixed investment (led by software as well as research and development). Increases in goods (dominated by non-automotive capital items) and services accounted for the increase in exports (led by travel). A drop in retail trade inventories led to a drop in private inventory investment. The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. Nondefense services decreased in the second quarter as banks’ processing and management of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications on behalf of the federal government reduced.
In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP climbed 13.4 percent on an annual basis, or $702.8 billion, to $22.74 trillion. GDP climbed by 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion, in the first quarter (table 1 and table 3). The Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website has more information on the source data that underpins the estimates.
In the second quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.8%, unchanged from the second estimate (table 4). The PCE price index grew 6.5 percent in the second estimate, unchanged from the previous estimate. The PCE price index grew 6.1 percent, unchanged from the second estimate, when food and energy prices were excluded.
In the second quarter, real gross domestic income (GDI) climbed by 2.3 percent, compared to 6.3 percent in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, climbed 4.5 percent, compared to a 6.3 percent gain in the first quarter (table 1).
In the second quarter, profits from current production (business profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) climbed $267.8 billion, compared to $123.9 billion in the first quarter (table 10).
Domestic financial businesses raised their profits by $52.8 billion in the second quarter, compared to $1.3 billion in the first. Non-financial corporations’ profits increased in the United States.
$221.3 billion, up $133.2 billion from the previous year. Profits in the rest of the world fell $6.2 billion, compared to a $10.6 billion drop in the United States. Receipts grew $27.4 billion in the second quarter, while payments jumped $33.6 billion.
Real GDP climbed 6.7 percent in the third estimate for the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. The increase was mostly due to increases in PCE, exports, and private inventory investment, which were partially offset by increases in imports and decreases in residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending. See the Technical Note and the “Additional Information” section below for more information.
Is GDP expected to rise in 2021?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What is the GDP of the United States in 2022?
According to our econometric models, the US GDP will trend around 22790.00 USD Billion in 2022 and 23420.00 USD Billion in 2023 in the long run.
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
How long would it take for a 2.5 percent-growing economy to double in size?
For instance, if an economy grows at 1% per year, it will take 70 / 1 = 70 years for the economy to double in size. If a country’s economy grows at 2% each year, it will take 70 / 2 = 35 years for it to double in size.
In the first quarter of 2022, how much do you estimate real GDP will grow?
According to 36 analysts polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the US economy for the current quarter looks weaker than it did in November. Forecasters expect real GDP to rise at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2022, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous survey’s prediction of 3.9 percent. The panel predicts that real GDP will rise at a pace of 3.7 percent this year, 2.7 percent in 2023, and 2.3 percent in 2024, based on an annual-average over annual-average calculation. The annual projections haven’t changed much since they were released three months ago.
The prognosis for growth is accompanied by downward revisions to the unemployment rate projections. The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 3.9 percent this quarter to 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to forecasts. The panelists expect that the unemployment rate will fall from 3.7 percent in 2022 to 3.4 percent in 2023, then rise slightly during the next two years, based on the annual-average computation. Annual average forecasts for 2022 to 2024 are 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points lower than in the previous survey.
Job growth predictions for the first two quarters of 2022 have been revised upward by forecasters. The annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment is projected to grow at a monthly rate of 430,900 in 2022, which is slightly changed from the previous forecast. (The year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment is converted to a monthly rate for these annual-average predictions.)
Did the economy expand in the third quarter?
As the pandemic’s impacts faded, the overall gain in GDP in 2021 was the largest in decades, yet challenges remain.