15th of March, 2022 – According to provisional estimates, GDP in the G20 region increased by 1.4 percent between the third and fourth quarters of 2021, down from the 1.9 percent gain seen between the second and third quarters.
The G20’s downturn in the fourth quarter of 2021 is primarily due to slowing growth in India1, where GDP increased by 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter after surging by 13.7 percent in the third quarter (Q3). It also indicates weaker growth in the European Union (EU), where GDP increased by 0.4 percent in Q4 2021, compared to 2.2 percent in Q3. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, had its GDP decline by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, making it the first G20 country to do so. 2 GDP growth decreased in Saudi Arabia (to 1.6 percent in Q4, compared to 5.7 percent in Q3) and Turkey (to 1.6 percent in Q4, compared to 5.7 percent in Q3) (to 1.5 percent , compared with 2.8 percent ).
Despite the G20 region’s overall trend, many G20 countries experienced better growth in Q4 2021 than in Q3. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the United States increased to 1.7 percent, up from 0.6 percent the previous quarter, and in China it increased to 1.6 percent, up from 0.7 percent. Indonesia’s GDP increased from a sluggish 0.1 percent in Q3 to a robust 3.9 percent in Q4, surpassing its pre-pandemic level for the first time (by 2.9 percent ). Australia’s GDP rebounded from a 1.9 percent dip in Q3, rising by 3.4 percent in Q4, while GDP in South Africa climbed by 1.2 percent in Q4 (from minus 1.7 percent in Q3) and 0.5 percent in Brazil (from minus 0.1 percent ). Mexico experienced no growth in the fourth quarter of 2021, following a contraction of 0.7 percent the previous quarter.
In terms of overall growth in 2021, preliminary estimates show that GDP in the G20 climbed by 6.1 percent, following a 3.2 percent drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Turkey had the highest growth rate among G20 countries in 2021 (11.0 percent), followed by India (8.3 percent) and China (8.1 percent), and Japan had the lowest growth rate (1.6 percent ).
OECD Chart: Quarterly GDP, Total, Percentage Change, Previous Period, Q1 2020 or Latest Available OECD Chart: Quarterly GDP, Total, Percentage Change, Previous Period, Q1 2020 or Latest Available OECD Chart: Quarterly
Which country has the fastest-growing GDP?
Over the next five years, India is anticipated to have the fastest economic growth of the 132 countries analyzed by FocusEconomics. While the country was heavily struck by the Covid-19 outbreak and the following draconian lockdown last spring, infection rates have dropped dramatically in recent months, the domestic vaccine campaign is now underway, and recent economic indicatorssuch as PMI readings and trade dataare positive. In the coming years, rising consumption, investment, and exports will drive development, with a favorable base effect in 2021 following the collapse of 2020 also playing a role. Furthermore, recent structural reforms, such as the goal of privatizing state-owned banks, permitting increased foreign participation in the insurance sector, and market-oriented agricultural reforms, all pose upside risks. However, there are concerns about the political will to carry out the reforms, and weak infrastructure will continue to stymie growth. Furthermore, the decision by ASEAN countries, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea in late 2019 to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)a free-trade pact recently agreed upon by ASEAN countries, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Koreacould stymie the external sector.
“With Covid-19 under control, the economy has already begun to normalize at a faster rate than anticipated. Front-loaded and increased government spending, the delayed effects of stronger financial conditions, faster global commerce, and continued vaccinations should all combine to cause cyclical growth to accelerate sharply. We maintain our above-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 13.5 percent year over year in FY22, compared to -6.7 percent in FY21, with the budget adding upside risk to our FY23 projection (6.1 percent).” – Mr. Nomura
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has fared quite well during the Covid-19 crisis: While decreased garment exports slowed growth last year, strong remittance inflows and improving industrial production have helped the recovery in recent months. In the future, the economy should be driven by rapid export growth and increasing domestic demand. Furthermore, the country’s demographics will continue to be favorable: The dependence ratiothe ratio of the working-age population to the population not in the labor forcehas plummeted in recent decades as a result of past success in lowering fertility rates, helping productivity and enhancing public finances. Slow vaccination progress, on the other hand, constitutes a risk.
“The expected repatriation of Bangladeshi migrants to their foreign workplaces will keep remittances from plunging, keeping private consumption high.” Increased investment spending as a result of a slew of ongoing infrastructure development projects, as well as a pick-up in domestic activity, will bolster growth. Positive base effects in the second half of the fiscal year, compared to the period of coronavirus-induced lockdown in the same period in 2020, will bolster the ongoing domestic recovery. A potential increase in coronavirus cases in Bangladesh, which could compel the government to reintroduce harsh containment measures, is a downside risk to our forecast. Before 2022/23, we don’t expect growth to return to the pre-pandemic range of 7-8 percent.” – Intelligence Unit of the Economist
Rwanda
Rwanda’s economy has come a long way since the genocide that ripped the country’s economic, political, and social fabric apart in the early 1990s. In 2000, nominal GDP was USD 2 billion, and in 2019, it was USD 10 billion. Despite the fact that the Covid-19 issue has slowed progress in the last year due to fewer FDI and firm closures, our panelists expect real GDP growth to average 6.7 percent from 2021 to 2025. Surge in investment should bolster activity. However, a shaky fiscal position, insufficient domestic savings, and high energy prices all pose dangers. Furthermore, the country’s outstanding development in recent decades has been primarily reliant on Paul Kagame’s leadership; if he were to step down, the country’s future would be much more uncertain.
“In the near to medium term, regime stability appears to be assured.” The Covid-19 pandemic’s interruptions and economic impact appear to have had little impact on public opinion, but issues remain. Developments in neighboring nations, as well as ties with them, remain a potentially destabilizing element. President Paul Kagame’s succession is still a hot topic, and factionalism within the Rwandan Popular Front (RPF) may emerge in the future. If the country is to prevent any shocks, a well-managed transition to greater democracy must remain a top goal.” – Oxford Economics economist Jee-A van der Linde
Vietnam
In recent years, Vietnam has been one of East Asia’s top achievers, owing to a stable political situation, low labor costs, and a relatively talented workforce. The government has had great success attracting foreign direct investment, particularly in the fast-growing electronics and textiles sectors. Due to the trade war between the United States and China, Vietnam has negotiated a number of trade agreements to improve market access for its commodities, notably the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and an FTA with the European Union. Furthermore, the government has managed Covid-19 admirably, nearly eliminating the virus domestically, allowing the economy to grow at one of the quickest rates in the world last year. The manufacturing sector is expected to drive growth in the next years. Downside risks include a potentially slow rebound in visitor arrivals, exposure to external shocks, and the fragile health of leader Nguyen Phu Trong.
“Successful and prompt local containment of the Covid-19 outbreak has allowed business activities in Vietnam to progressively return to “normal,” as seen by the consecutive improvements in various data releases. While the upward trend in economic activity is expected to continue in 2021, the forecast is greatly contingent on global pandemic containment and vaccine rollout. Other factors working in Vietnam’s favor include a slew of free trade agreements that are expected to boost exports and investments. Vietnam’s current efforts in digital transformation and e-commerce promotion, as well as the country’s dynamic and abundant workforce, are all good factors for the future.” – Suan Teck Kin, United Overseas Bank’s head of research
Cambodia
The textile and construction industries have boosted economic activity in recent years, but the economy was struck hard by the pandemic in 2020, and it is expected to decline significantly due to income losses and decreasing tourism earnings. Although high unemployment, strained relations with the EUthe principal market for garment exportsand higher twin deficits represent downside risks, the economy could return to a good growth trajectory this year as the impact of the pandemic fades and FDI continues strong.
“As global production shifts away from China, longer-term growth prospects remain solid, with FDI continuing to stimulate new sector development.” As foreign demand rebounds, the prediction anticipates GDP growth maintaining close to 7% in 2023, fueling a comeback in investment with a substantial FDI component. Domestic income growth, even if politics remains restrictive, defuses anger, and supports net export expansion, which puts the current account deficit on a lower path.” – Chris Portman, Oxford Economics senior economist
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
In 2021, how much did the economy grow?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Which Indian state is the third richest?
Karnataka is India’s third-richest state. The country’s overall GDP is 15.88 lakh crores. In comparison to other states in the country, its GDP has expanded at the quickest rate in the recent decade. This state is home to a number of well-known firms, including Bharat Electronics Limited, Hindustan Machine Tools, and the Indian Telephone Industry.
Automobile, agriculture, aerospace, textile and garment, biotech, and heavy engineering sectors are among its strengths.
In 2050, who will be the world’s ruler?
And, to no one’s surprise, China will be the world’s most powerful economy by 2050. PwC, on the other hand, did not arrive at this conclusion. From the World Bank to the United Nations, Goldman Sachs to the European Union, a slew of organizations, financial institutions, and governments have predicted this for quite some time.
China will not be able to grow if it continues to be as isolated as it has been for years. Instead, Beijing will expand by allowing international companies such as General Motors and Tesla Motors access to its markets. Since entering a trade war with the United States in 2017, President Xi Jinping has supported market-oriented reforms, allowing for more foreign direct investment.
Despite geopolitical tensions and trade issues, the authors of the study are optimistic that China would remain dominant in 30 years.
Is the Indian economy expanding?
India’s GDP is developing at a rate of 9.2%, making it one of the fastest-growing big economies in the world: Niti is the CEO of Niti. Amitabh Kant, the CEO of Niti Aayog, said on Monday that the Indian economy is growing at 9.2% and will continue to do so in the next years.