As a result, whereas real GDP is a stronger indication of consumer spending power, nominal GDP is a better gauge of change in output levels over time.
Is a larger GDP always preferable?
GDP is significant because it provides information on the size and performance of an economy. The pace of increase in real GDP is frequently used as a gauge of the economy’s overall health. An increase in real GDP is viewed as a sign that the economy is performing well in general.
Is it better to have larger or lower real GDP?
As a result, real GDP is virtually always slightly lower than nominal GDP. Real GDP (and real GDP per capita) provide a more realistic depiction of a country’s economic performance in most cases. Economic statistics are more easily compared to historical data.
Is it better to have real or nominal GDP?
As a result, whereas real GDP is a stronger indication of consumer spending power, nominal GDP is a better gauge of change in output levels over time.
What happens if the GDP is excessively high?
- Individual investors must develop a level of understanding of GDP and inflation that will aid their decision-making without overwhelming them with unneeded information.
- Most companies will not be able to expand their earnings (which is the key driver of stock performance) if overall economic activity is dropping or simply holding steady; nevertheless, too much GDP growth is also harmful.
- Inflation is caused by GDP growth over time, and if allowed unchecked, inflation can turn into hyperinflation.
- Most economists nowadays think that a moderate bit of inflation, around 1% to 2% per year, is more useful to the economy than harmful.
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
Why is GDP not a good metric?
GDP is a rough indicator of a society’s standard of living because it does not account for leisure, environmental quality, levels of health and education, activities undertaken outside the market, changes in income disparity, improvements in diversity, increases in technology, or the cost of living.
Is PPP or nominal better?
PPP stands for purchasing power parity, and GDP (PPP) stands for gross domestic product. This article covers a list of countries ranked by their expected GDP prediction (PPP). Countries are sorted based on GDP (PPP) prediction estimates derived from financial and statistical organisations using market or official exchange rates. The information on this page is in international dollars, which is a standardized unit used by economists. If they are different jurisdiction areas or economic entities, several territories that are not usually recognized countries, such as the European Union and Hong Kong, appear on the list.
When comparing the domestic market of a country, PPP comparisons are arguably more useful than nominal GDP comparisons because PPP considers the relative cost of local goods, services, and inflation rates of the country rather than using international market exchange rates, which may distort the real differences in per capita income. It is, however, limited when comparing the quality of similar items between countries and evaluating financial flows between countries. PPP is frequently used to determine global poverty thresholds, and the United Nations uses it to calculate the human development index. In order to estimate a representative basket of all items, surveys like the International Comparison Program include both tradable and non-tradable goods.
The first table shows estimates for 2020 for each of the 194 nations and areas covered by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) database (including Hong Kong and Taiwan). The figures are in millions of dollars and were estimated and released by the International Monetary Fund in April 2020. The second table contains data for 180 of the 193 current United Nations member nations, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, largely for the year 2018. (the two Chinese Special Administrative Regions). The World Bank compiled the data, which is in millions of international dollars. The third table provides a summary of the 2019 CIA World Factbook GDP (PPP) data. The data for GDP at purchasing power parity has also been rebased and projected to 2007 using the latest International Comparison Program price surveys. In cases where they exist in the sources, non-sovereign entities (the world, continents, and some dependent territories) and nations with restricted recognition (such as Kosovo, Palestine, and Taiwan) are included in the list. These economies are not ranked in the graphs, but are instead listed in order of GDP for comparison purposes. Non-sovereign entities are also highlighted in italics.
In the European Single Market, the European Union shares a common market with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, and Norway, which ensures the free movement of commodities, capital, services, and labor (the “four freedoms”) among its member states. The EU is also a participant in international trade discussions, and thus may appear on various lists. The EU could be placed above or below the US, depending on the approach used. The World Bank, for example, projects the European Union’s GDP (PPP) to be $20.78 trillion in 2019.
What does a 3 percent real GDP growth rate imply?
However, if the pace of growth exceeds 3% or 4%, economic expansion may come to a halt. When firms hold off on investing and hiring, consumers will have less money to spend, resulting in a period of contraction. The country will be in recession if the growth rate falls below 1%.
Is the GDP figure correct?
GDP is a good indicator of an economy’s size, and the GDP growth rate is perhaps the best indicator of economic growth, while GDP per capita has a strong link to the trend in living standards over time.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”