To say the least, the previous two years have been tumultuous, and while Australia’s economy appears to be thriving, the country’s economy normally follows a five-year economic cycle that includes both ups and downs.
A recession is defined as a period of negative growth for two-thirds of a year (six months). Surprisingly, Australia has not experienced a recession since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Although, given the current state of ambiguity, it is vital to consider it a possibility.
Will Australia have a downturn?
In the June quarter, the Australian economy increased by 0.7 percent, slowing from the months before the Delta strain swept wildly throughout New South Wales and Victoria.
The figure, reported on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, implies Australia has escaped a technical recession for the time being, ahead of a significant contraction in the September quarter owing to lockdowns in its two most populous states.
Is there going to be a recession in 2021?
Unfortunately, a worldwide economic recession in 2021 appears to be a foregone conclusion. The coronavirus has already wreaked havoc on businesses and economies around the world, and experts predict that the devastation will only get worse. Fortunately, there are methods to prepare for a downturn in the economy: live within your means.
What is the state of the Australian economy in 2021?
- The Australian economy expanded in the fourth quarter of 2021. When compared to the September quarter of 2021, GDP climbed by 3.4 percent in the December quarter. The Australian economy was 3.4 percent larger at the end of 2021 than it was before the pandemic began (December quarter 2019).
- The states most affected by Delta wave limits experienced the fastest growth. New South Wales (6.7 percent), Victoria (3.7 percent), and the Australian Capital Territory (1.9 percent) had the most demand growth in the December quarter as limitations were removed.
- We went out and shopped after the limitations were gone. Household spending climbed by 6.3 percent, with non-essential spending increasing the most (14.2 percent – the largest increase on record). Essential spending such as shelter and food, on the other hand, increased by 1.9 percent.
- Households now have more money than they did before the outbreak. Households continued to preserve a greater-than-usual percentage of their disposable income (13.6 percent), which is still higher than pre-pandemic levels, though down from 19.8% in the September quarter 2021.
- As more people got haircuts, the demand for personal services expanded. Production increased in the most restricted industries compared to the September quarter of 2021. The fastest-growing industry was air transportation (56.5%), followed by lodging and food services (26.1 percent ). Personal and other services (which includes hairdressing and beauty salons) rose by 15.4%, the fastest quarterly gain in the industry’s history.
- In 2022, house construction has slowed marginally, but corporations are poised to invest. Investment in housing, including new building and renovations, declined by 2.2 percent, but was still 5.3 percent higher than the same period previous year. Following significant growth in the first half of 2021, private company investment slowed. Businesses, on the other hand, aim to dramatically expand their investment, with capital expenditures predicted to rise by 10.8% in 202223.
- During the quarter, international trade slowed. Coal exports declined as a result of bad weather that made extraction difficult. Cereal exports, on the other hand, increased dramatically due to favorable growing circumstances. Total exports declined by 1.5 percent more than imports (0.9 percent ).
- Governments in Australia have continued to support the economy. Government income assistance to households was $6.9 billion greater than pre-pandemic levels in October, down $4.8 billion from September, while government subsidies were $8.8 billion higher.
- The Australian labor market has remained strong. The unemployment rate in December 2021 was 4.2 percent, the lowest since August 2008. Western Australia, South Australia, and Tasmania had the lowest unemployment rates. Across the country, more than 13 million individuals were employed.
- Wage growth has slowed in recent months. During the December quarter, the Wage Price Index increased by 0.7 percent, putting it 2.3 percent higher than the same period last year. Wage growth ranged from 0.3 percent for educators to 1.2 percent for retail workers throughout the quarter.
- Domestic price pressures grew stronger. Consumer prices increased 1.3 percent in the December quarter, bringing them to 3.5 percent higher than the same period the previous year. The most significant price increases throughout the quarter were for new homes and gasoline.
- The effects of Omicron on the Australian economy will be most noticeable in 2022. The Omicron variation had limited economic impact in the December quarter, with the new restrictions only affecting a few weeks in the final three months of 2021.
What will the Australian economy look like in 2022?
However, our base scenario is that the Australian economy recovers rapidly following a sluggish (virus-affected) start to 2022, with unemployment falling below 4% by the end of the year and continuing to decline into 2023. Wage and price pressures are projected to stay high until late 2022, when they will stabilize. By 2023, the AUD is expected to settle around its long-run average of USD 75 cents, and house price growth is expected to slow in late 2022 before declining in 2023.
The year’s major theme will be economic policy. Regardless matter who wins the election in 2022, fiscal spending will remain high, boosting consumer demand in late 2022, but the budget will eventually need to be repaired. There are also concerns about monetary policy. While we believe the RBA will begin to adjust rates in late 2022 as a result of wage and price pressures, a lot depends on what is determined to be transitory on the inflation front and whether the RBA sticks to its guidance of waiting for hard evidence of inflation that is sustained within the band. This isn’t a simple undertaking, especially given the current supply-side pressures at work. Many of the elements that will likely feed into the RBA’s framework for assessing stable inflation and determining where rates should be to maintain inflation low and stable are difficult to assess in real time. One of these factors is the genuine level of full employment and how quickly any tightening in the labor market translates into quicker pay growth.
In the medium future, an emphasis on productivity growth and corporate investment, as well as population expansion, will most likely be the topic. As fiscal and monetary policy support fades and fiscal restoration begins, these considerations will become increasingly relevant.
What is the inflation rate in Australia in 2021?
According to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 1.3 percent in the December 2021 quarter and 3.5 percent annually (ABS).
Is Australia on the verge of a recession?
Australia’s golden era has come to an end. The country went into its first recession since 1991 in 2020, and only very high growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 will likely keep it from going into another. Even a substantial rebound in 2021 will not be enough to disguise the country’s significant economic problems.
Is Australia experiencing a downturn?
According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia is on track to have its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and has already lost 800,000 jobs and seen a 6.7 percent drop in take-home pay, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released an economic update on Tuesday, anticipating a 10% drop in national production in the first half of 2020, a “staggeringly high” 20% reduction in hours worked, and unemployment of 10% by June.
Is the Australian economy doing well?
In comparison to other developed economies, Australia’s economic stability has translated into comparatively high levels of average economic growth over the period. From 1992 to 2017, Australia’s economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent on average.
What should I do to prepare for a Depression in 2021?
We’ve talked about how individuals survived the Great Depression in Survival Scout Tips, but today we’d want to take a look at the Great Depression from a different perspective. Rather of focusing on surviving the Great Depression, let’s think about what efforts we can take now to prepare for the Greater Depression, which experts fear could happen in our lifetime.
Before the Great Depression, some people took advantage of windows of opportunity, such as diversifying their income. We can learn from history and use this information to make better judgments to secure our livelihoods in the case of a Greater Depression because hindsight is 20/20.
Millions of people lost their jobs during the Great Depression. The percentage of women employed, on the other hand, increased. “From 1930 to 1940, the number of employed women in the United States increased by 24%, from 10.5 million to 13 million,” according to The History Channel. Despite the fact that women had been progressively entering the workforce for decades, the Great Depression forced them to seek work in ever greater numbers as male breadwinners lost their jobs.”
Women took on more steady jobs, such as nurses and teachers, as one of the causes. During the epidemic, we became accustomed to hearing about “essential workers,” or those who were required to keep the country running while other firms were closed.
Take action now to make oneself indispensable. Make every effort to convince your manager that you are an indispensable employee. This will not only keep you employed during a downturn in the economy, but it will also improve your prospects of getting a raise or advancing up the corporate ladder.
Don’t succumb to lifestyle creep if you follow step one and boost your income (where you start spending more as you earn more). Do the polar opposite instead. With economic uncertainty looming, now is not the time to go big. Instead, seek for ways to cut back on your spending. Look for ways to cut your utility and insurance payments, cancel unnecessary subscriptions, and stop buying new just because you can (you don’t need the latest cell phone model, for example).
Use the extra money you’re earning and the money you’re saving to cut back on your expenditures to pay off your debt. “Debt is an issue even when the economy is prospering,” Forbes writes. It’s an even bigger concern during recessions, when you may be facing the prospect of losing your job or seeing the value of your investments plummet.” You’ll have a higher chance of surviving the Great Depression if you have less debts.
You must also develop your savings in addition to paying off your debt. Many Americans, however, do not have an emergency savings account. If another depression strikes, having an emergency fund will go a long way toward ensuring your family’s safety.
Avoid placing all your eggs in one basket when it comes to income and savings. Diversify instead. This is not only how the majority of millionaires become millions, but it is also a sound financial approach. For example, if your company closes during a recession and that is your main source of income, you will lose all of your savings. You will have other means of survival if you start a side hustle now or make savvy investments (such as sin and comfort stocks, gold, or precious metals).
Many Americans are unconcerned with living over their means. “Experts believe that being in a persistent scenario of having little or no emergency funds is unpleasant, and even harmful,” according to U.S. News (let alone adequate retirement savings).
But, like the partially shut down federal government, which relies on borrowing to keep afloat and threatens another credit downgrade if the closure continues, economists believe Americans are unable or unwilling to live within their means. Credit is much easier to obtain and has evolved into a convenience rather than an emergency solution, according to experts.”
Many Americans use credit cards or bank loans to “buy” expensive cars, designer clothing, and luxury vacations that they can’t afford but convince themselves they can because they have a credit card.
People nowadays frequently use their debit or credit cards for all of their purchases. We shouldn’t invest all of our money in one bank, as the Great Depression demonstrated. That doesn’t imply you should hurry to the bank and deposit your whole savings account under your mattress. Instead, make it a priority to keep emergency funds on hand at all times.
Growing your knowledge base will not only make you irreplaceable at work, but it will also aid you at home if you experience a Greater Depression. Start learning about common household replacements and do-it-yourself solutions, for example. You won’t be able to buy things as readily or afford a handyman if a Greater Depression happens. As a result, it’s a good idea to learn as much as you can on your own.
Food and clean water will be among the first items to run short during the Great Depression. When things do return to stores, they may be rationed or at excessive costs. During the coronavirus scare, we witnessed this personally. Because natural calamities and economic turmoil are always a possibility, it’s a good idea to stock up on long-lasting emergency food and water purification equipment.
In the same way, start thinking about nonperishable things that would likely rise in price owing to inflation if a slump occurs. Consider what individuals bought in a panic in 2020 and hoard them now. Toilet paper, for example.