Are Commodities A Good Hedge Against Inflation?

  • Commodities are manufactured or extracted things, such as natural resources or agricultural products, that are frequently utilized as inputs in other operations.
  • Many experts propose investing a portion of your portfolio in commodities as a diversifier asset class.
  • Furthermore, some commodities, such as precious metals and energy items, tend to be ideal inflation hedges.

Are commodities a good way to protect against inflation?

Investing in commodities may provide a hedge against inflation because commodity prices tend to rise when inflation accelerates. Stocks and bonds, on the other hand, tend to do better when inflation is stable or slowing.

What is the greatest way to protect yourself against rising inflation?

You might not think of a house as a smart method to protect yourself against inflation, but if you buy it with a mortgage, it can be a great way to do so. With a long-term mortgage, you may lock in affordable financing for up to three decades at near-historically low rates.

A fixed-rate mortgage allows you to keep the majority of your housing costs in one payment. Property taxes will increase, and other costs will climb, but your monthly housing payment will remain the same. If you’re renting, that’s definitely not the case.

And, of course, owning a home entails the possibility of its value rising over time. Price appreciation is possible if additional money enters the market.

Stocks

Stocks are a solid long-term inflation hedge, even though they may be battered by nervous investors in the near term as their concerns grow. However, not all stocks are equivalent in terms of inflation protection. You’ll want to seek for organizations with pricing power, which means they can raise prices on their clients as their own costs grow.

And if a company’s profits increase over time, so should its stock price. While inflation fears may affect the stock market, the top companies are able to weather the storm thanks to their superior economics.

Gold

When inflation rises or interest rates are extremely low, gold has traditionally been a safe-haven asset for investors. When real interest rates that is, the reported rate of interest minus the inflation rate go below zero, gold tends to do well. During difficult economic times, investors often look to gold as a store of value, and it has served this purpose for a long time.

One effective way to invest in gold is to acquire it through an exchange-traded fund (ETF). This way, you won’t have to own and protect the gold yourself. Plus, ETFs provide you the option of owning actual gold or equities of gold miners, which can provide a bigger return if gold prices rise.

Which commodities perform well in the face of inflation?

“Investors should continue to keep equities since stocks normally outperform in times of inflation, especially if it is accompanied by growth.” Consumer staples stocks, such as food and energy, perform well during inflation because demand for staples is inelastic, giving these companies more pricing power because they can increase their prices more quickly than other industries.”

Opt for stocks and TIPs, says Leanne Devinney, vice president of Fidelity Investments

“Diversifying between different sorts of investments is a solid idea.” For example, equities, rather than bonds, have a better track record of keeping up with inflation over time. Consider Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and high-yield bonds, which are both inflation-resistant fixed income investments. It may also assist in reducing exposure to more inflation-sensitive investments, such as some treasury bonds.”

Change up how you deal with your cash, says Pamela Chen, chartered financial analyst at Refresh Investments

“When there is a rise in inflation, it is more vital to invest funds. During inflationary periods, when prices for things rise, cash loses purchasing power, and one dollar buys less than it used to. Invest your money to generate a return that will help you avoid the inflationary bite, or to achieve a return that will stay up with or exceed inflation.”

What makes commodities unique as an inflation hedge?

Financial markets anticipate a certain degree of inflation and factor it into asset prices, resulting in an investment portfolio state that is theoretically neutral. Inflationary surprises, on the other hand, might reduce portfolio purchasing power, posing a difficulty for investors with a shorter investment horizon, such as retirees.

Do some asset classes fare better than others in the face of unexpected inflation, as we’ve witnessed recently? Commodities, according to recent Vanguard study, stand out as a vehicle for hedging against unanticipated inflation.

Commodities have shown a statistically significant and fairly continuous positive inflation beta, or projected reaction to a unit of inflation, over the last three decades. The study, lead by Sue Wang, Ph.D., an assistant portfolio manager in Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group, discovered that the inflation beta of commodities has mostly fluctuated between 7 and 9 over the last decade. This means that a 1% increase in unexpected inflation would result in a 7% to 9% increase in commodity prices. 1

Where should I place my money to account for inflation?

“While cash isn’t a growth asset, it will typically stay up with inflation in nominal terms if inflation is accompanied by rising short-term interest rates,” she continues.

CFP and founder of Dare to Dream Financial Planning Anna N’Jie-Konte agrees. With the epidemic demonstrating how volatile the economy can be, N’Jie-Konte advises maintaining some money in a high-yield savings account, money market account, or CD at all times.

“Having too much wealth is an underappreciated risk to one’s financial well-being,” she adds. N’Jie-Konte advises single-income households to lay up six to nine months of cash, and two-income households to set aside six months of cash.

Lassus recommends that you keep your short-term CDs until we have a better idea of what longer-term inflation might look like.

What should I do to prepare for hyperinflation in 2021?

Food and water may become more difficult to obtain in the future, which is difficult to accept when you have hungry mouths to feed. Consider dedicating a piece of your property to gardening and fruit tree planting to assist you and your family stay afloat. Alternatively, if you have the funds, you may need to purchase more land with a water supply on its property.

How will you protect yourself from inflation in 2022?

During the epidemic, there was a surge in demand for products and labor, resulting in the fastest rate of consumer price and wage inflation since the early 1990s. As the pandemic passes and spending moves toward services rather than products, we believe inflation will reduce due to greater labor supply. In the end, it should not jeopardize our base case scenario, which predicts a significantly more vibrant cycle in the 2020s than we experienced in the 2010s.

However, both prices and salaries are expected to rise at a pretty rapid pace. We believe there are three ways for investors to navigate this climate.

Look to real estate for inflation protection

Because leases are regularly reset higher, real estate investors often profit from a natural inflation hedge. Furthermore, we believe the residential and industrial real estate sectors will benefit from strong structural tailwinds. Following the global financial crisis, chronic underbuilding (compared to trend) resulted in a housing shortage in the United States. Workers’ labor is in high demand, and earnings are rising, ensuring that housing remains cheap even as home prices rise. Migration enabled by remote work is also offering opportunities.

The global trend toward e-commerce will demand additional warehouses, storage, and logistics in the industrial sector. The need for further investment is highlighted by problems in the global supply chain that became apparent in 2021. We’re also seeing an increase in demand for life science research facilities. While we prefer to invest in real estate through private markets, publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) have outperformed other equities sectors during periods of rising inflation. In a nutshell, real estate is our favourite option to invest in a higher-inflation climate.

Rely on equities, especially cyclical ones, to drive capital appreciation.

While economists dispute the complexities of inflation, the fundamental principles underlying the current phase appear to be clear: Strong demand and economic growth are driving inflation. Because corporate earnings are also good in inflationary settings, equities tend to do well. We anticipate that stocks of companies that are more closely linked to economic activity and interest rates will likely outperform. Bank stock valuations, for example, have generally been linked to inflation forecasts. In cyclical industries like industrials and commodities, companies with pricing power could see strong revenue increases. Stocks that do well when growth and inflation are rare (think the digital economy) may, on the other hand, be at more risk. In our opinion, you should maintain a fair balance between the two categories, and expect a hard environment for fixed income portfolios as interest rates climb.

Avoid excess cash, and consider borrowing.

In our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, 80 percent of the assets we consider have a higher predicted return than inflation. Investing surplus cash in a portfolio that meets your goals and time horizon is the simplest approach to protect purchasing power. Borrowing may be prudent in the current situation. Interest rates remain low, particularly when compared to inflation. A mortgage is a straightforward approach to profit from a healthy home market. If the Federal Reserve reacts to rising inflation by boosting interest rates, borrowing expenses may become less appealing.

Key takeaways

Higher inflation is likely to persist through 2022, but it does not have to be a reason for alarm. Investors can create a portfolio that considers inflation risks and attempts to manage them. While excess cash appears unappealing, relying on equities rather than fixed income and focusing on cyclical sectors and real estate could prove to be profitable strategies. Meanwhile, while policy interest rates are still low, borrowing and settling existing liabilities may be prudent.

In the context of your individual circumstances and aspirations, your J.P. Morgan team can provide you with more information on how the present environment is influencing risk and return possibilities.

How can I keep my investments safe from UK inflation?

Inflation may have dropped in recent months, but savers still have a fight on their hands if they wish to avoid its corrosive effects.

We’ll look at how taking certain risks with your money can help you keep your money’s value above inflation.

Shift longer term savings into equities

You might have some money in a savings account. After all, it’s recommended that you save away roughly six months’ worth of earnings as an emergency fund. However, you may discover that you have more than you require. If that’s the case, think about putting some of it into investments that have a better chance of long-term growth.

Equities have historically been the most successful assets for fighting inflation over the long term but you must be comfortable with your investments rising and falling in value.

Choose your investments wisely

Other investments, if you know where to search, can produce returns that are higher than inflation. Bond funds, for example, could be included in a portfolio of investments because they invest in debt issued by governments and/or enterprises seeking to raise financing. Throughout their lives, bonds pay a defined rate of interest, known as the coupon, and should refund the original capital at maturity. To spread risk, bond funds invest in a variety of debt instruments.

A financial adviser can help you create a portfolio that takes advantage of all available investment opportunities.

Maximise tax efficiency

After you’ve figured out how to fight inflation, think about how tax-efficient your assets are. ISAs and pensions are both tax-advantaged vehicles for saving and investing for the long term.

ISAs allow you to save up to 20,000 a year in tax-free growth and income on investments, as well as tax-free withdrawals. Meanwhile, depending on your taxable income, pension payments may be eligible for income tax relief of up to 45 percent.

When you can afford it and while they’re still accessible, it’s a good idea to take advantage of hefty tax breaks over time. This way, you may take advantage of compound growth or earning returns on your returns to help you keep up with inflation.

Seek expert advice

A sound investment strategy should include a diverse portfolio of assets and the use of tax-advantaged investment vehicles.

We can put together a diversified portfolio that is geared to your long-term financial goals, risk tolerance, and inflation protection. Get in contact with us right now to learn more.