Real estate investment trusts (REITs) offer natural inflation protection. When prices rise, so do rentals and values in real estate. This helps REIT dividend growth and ensures a steady supply of income, especially during periods of high inflation.
In all but two of the last twenty years, REIT dividends have exceeded inflation as assessed by the Consumer Price Index.
Directly comparing REIT dividend growth with inflation is a practical technique to measure the inflation protection provided by REITs. Dividend growth in REITs have exceeded inflation in all but two of the last 20 years, as assessed by the Consumer Price Index.
Commodities and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are examples of investments that can provide good inflation protection. Stocks, too, can play a role in a portfolio that shields investors from inflationary shocks.
Do REITs fare well in the face of rising inflation?
Gladstone’s leases range from five to ten years in length, with annual escalations and upward market adjustments or participation aspects included in several. This means that a portion of farmers’ gains from higher food prices are passed on to the REIT, but the base rent remains the same when food prices fall.
Gladstone’s ability to protect investors from inflation has already been recognized by the market, and the stock price has skyrocketed while the dividend yield has plummeted as a result. However, a yield of 1.7 percent is still roughly half a percentage point greater than the average yield of the S&P 500, and the yield is expected to rise over time. Continued food price rise should boost Gladstone’s earnings and boost the value of its thousands of acres of farmland even more.
Is a real estate investment trust (REIT) a smart inflation hedge?
Most REITs can be bought and sold on public exchanges much like stocks, making them extremely liquid investments. REITs aim to provide investors with a continuous stream of income as well as tax benefits. The corporation must follow regulations regarding the mix of its assets, the source and distribution of revenue, the number of shareholders and the concentration of shares, among other things, in order to qualify as a REIT.
REITs, like direct real estate investments, may have the potential to be effective inflation hedges. However, REITs, like direct ownership, are subject to risk and may lose value. As a result, each investor must examine their risk tolerance and select which hedges are acceptable and appropriate for them.
What are some excellent inflation hedges?
ETFs and mutual funds are two of the most straightforward ways to diversify investments into international markets. When compared to acquiring a portfolio of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) or foreign stocks, these funds are a low-cost method to invest. If you’re already invested in S&P 500 index funds, you might want to diversify your holdings with an international index fund.
Are REITs a decent investment during a downturn?
Since 1991, U.S. REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7% annually in late-cycle periods and have provided considerable downside protection in recessions, highlighting the potential value of conservative, lease-based revenues and high dividend yields in an uncertain environment (see chart below).
In 2021, are REITs a viable investment?
REITs provide investors with a number of advantages that make them an excellent addition to any investment portfolio. Competitive long-term performance, attractive income, liquidity, transparency, and diversification are just a few of them.
Competitive long-term performance
REITs have historically outperformed stocks, especially over lengthy periods of time. REITs, as assessed by the FTSE Nareit Composite Index, have generated a compound annual average total return (stock price appreciation plus dividend income) of 11.4 percent over the last 45 years. That’s only a smidgeon less than the S&P 500’s annual return of 11.5 percent over the same time period.
During various occasions, REITs have outperformed stocks. For example, during the last three, five, ten, fifteen, twenty, twenty-five, twenty-five, thirty, thirty-five, and forty years, they have outperformed small-cap equities as assessed by the Russell 2000 Index. Small-cap companies have only outperformed REITs once in the last year. Meanwhile, during the last 20 years, 25 years, and 30 years, REITs have outperformed large-cap equities (the Russell 1000 Index). Finally, they’ve outperformed bonds over the previous 40 years in every historical period.
Attractive income
The fact that most REITs pay attractive dividends is one of the reasons they have earned strong total returns over time. In mid-2021, for example, the average REIT yielded over 3%, more than double the dividend yield of the S&P 500. Over time, the income mounts up because it accounts for the majority of a REIT’s total return.
REITs pay high dividends because they are required to release 90% of their taxable income to comply with IRS laws. Most REITs, on the other hand, pay out more than 90% of their taxable income since their cash flows, as measured by funds from operations (FFO), are sometimes significantly greater than net income due to REITs’ proclivity for recording significant amounts of depreciation each year.
Many REITs have a strong track record of raising dividends over time. Federal Realty Investment Trust, for example, raised its dividend for the 53rd year in a row in 2021, the longest streak in the REIT business. Several other REITs have a long history of boosting their payouts at least once a year.
Liquidity
Real estate is an illiquid investment, which means that it is difficult to convert into cash. Consider the case of a single-family rental (SFR) property owner who needs to sell to finance a large expense. In that situation, they’d have to put the house on the market, wait for a suitable offer, and hope that nothing goes wrong on the way to closing. Depending on market conditions, it could take months before they can convert the property into cash. A real estate agent charge, as well as other closing costs, would almost certainly be required.
If a REIT investor needed money, on the other hand, they could click into their online brokerage account and sell REIT shares whenever the market was open. A REIT investor would also avoid paying commissions when selling because most brokers do not charge commissions.
Transparency
Many private real estate investments are run with little or no supervision. As a result, real estate sponsors may make judgments that aren’t necessarily in their investors’ best interests.
REITs, on the other hand, are quite transparent. The performance of REITs is monitored by independent directors, analysts, auditors, and the financial media. They must also file financial reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This oversight provides a layer of safety for REIT investors, ensuring that management teams are unable to take advantage of them for personal gain.
Diversification
REITs allow investors to diversify their portfolios throughout the commercial real estate industry, reducing their reliance on stock and bond markets. This diversification reduces an investor’s risk profile while not lowering rewards.
For example, with a Sharp Ratio of 0.27 and a standard deviation of 10, a typically balanced portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds has historically earned a bit higher than 7.8% return over the past 20 years. The Sharp Ratio compares risk to a risk-free investment, such as a US Treasury bond, with a higher number reflecting a better risk-adjusted return. The standard deviation, on the other hand, is a statistical measure of volatility, with a greater figure indicating a riskier investment. For the sake of comparison, a more aggressive strategy of 80 percent stocks and 20 percent bonds has historically produced around 8.3%, but with a Sharp Ratio of 0.17 and a standard deviation of more than 13.
- With a Sharp Ratio of 0.34 and a standard deviation of around 10.5, a 55 percent stock/35 percent bond/10 percent REIT portfolio has historically provided a yearly return of around 8.3 percent.
- A 40 percent stock/40 percent bond/20 percent REIT portfolio has historically had an annualized return of slightly more than 8.4%, with a Sharp Ratio of 0.46 and a standard deviation of less than 10.
- With a Sharp Ratio of 0.49 and a standard deviation of roughly 11.5, a 33.3 percent spread across stocks, bonds, and REITs has yielded an almost 9% average annual rate of return.
As a result, adding REITs to a portfolio should help it produce superior risk-adjusted returns by reducing volatility.
How will you protect yourself from inflation in 2022?
During the epidemic, there was a surge in demand for products and labor, resulting in the fastest rate of consumer price and wage inflation since the early 1990s. As the pandemic passes and spending moves toward services rather than products, we believe inflation will reduce due to greater labor supply. In the end, it should not jeopardize our base case scenario, which predicts a significantly more vibrant cycle in the 2020s than we experienced in the 2010s.
However, both prices and salaries are expected to rise at a pretty rapid pace. We believe there are three ways for investors to navigate this climate.
Look to real estate for inflation protection
Because leases are regularly reset higher, real estate investors often profit from a natural inflation hedge. Furthermore, we believe the residential and industrial real estate sectors will benefit from strong structural tailwinds. Following the global financial crisis, chronic underbuilding (compared to trend) resulted in a housing shortage in the United States. Workers’ labor is in high demand, and earnings are rising, ensuring that housing remains cheap even as home prices rise. Migration enabled by remote work is also offering opportunities.
The global trend toward e-commerce will demand additional warehouses, storage, and logistics in the industrial sector. The need for further investment is highlighted by problems in the global supply chain that became apparent in 2021. We’re also seeing an increase in demand for life science research facilities. While we prefer to invest in real estate through private markets, publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) have outperformed other equities sectors during periods of rising inflation. In a nutshell, real estate is our favourite option to invest in a higher-inflation climate.
Rely on equities, especially cyclical ones, to drive capital appreciation.
While economists dispute the complexities of inflation, the fundamental principles underlying the current phase appear to be clear: Strong demand and economic growth are driving inflation. Because corporate earnings are also good in inflationary settings, equities tend to do well. We anticipate that stocks of companies that are more closely linked to economic activity and interest rates will likely outperform. Bank stock valuations, for example, have generally been linked to inflation forecasts. In cyclical industries like industrials and commodities, companies with pricing power could see strong revenue increases. Stocks that do well when growth and inflation are rare (think the digital economy) may, on the other hand, be at more risk. In our opinion, you should maintain a fair balance between the two categories, and expect a hard environment for fixed income portfolios as interest rates climb.
Avoid excess cash, and consider borrowing.
In our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, 80 percent of the assets we consider have a higher predicted return than inflation. Investing surplus cash in a portfolio that meets your goals and time horizon is the simplest approach to protect purchasing power. Borrowing may be prudent in the current situation. Interest rates remain low, particularly when compared to inflation. A mortgage is a straightforward approach to profit from a healthy home market. If the Federal Reserve reacts to rising inflation by boosting interest rates, borrowing expenses may become less appealing.
Key takeaways
Higher inflation is likely to persist through 2022, but it does not have to be a reason for alarm. Investors can create a portfolio that considers inflation risks and attempts to manage them. While excess cash appears unappealing, relying on equities rather than fixed income and focusing on cyclical sectors and real estate could prove to be profitable strategies. Meanwhile, while policy interest rates are still low, borrowing and settling existing liabilities may be prudent.
In the context of your individual circumstances and aspirations, your J.P. Morgan team can provide you with more information on how the present environment is influencing risk and return possibilities.
How can I plan for inflation in 2022?
With the consumer price index rising at a rate not seen in over 40 years in 2021, the investing challenge for 2022 is generating meaningful profits in the face of very high inflation. Real estate, commodities, and consumer cyclical equities are all traditional inflation-resistant assets. Others, like as tourism, semiconductors, and infrastructure-related investments, may do well during this inflationary cycle as a result of the pandemic’s special circumstances. Cash, bonds, and growth stocks, on the other hand, look to be less appealing in today’s market.
Do you want to learn more about diversifying your investing portfolio? Contact a financial advisor right away.
Before inflation, what should I buy?
At the very least, you should have a month’s worth of food on hand. Depending on your budget, it could be more or less. (I cannot emphasize enough that it must be food that your family will consume.)
If you need some help getting started, this article will show you how to stock up on three months’ worth of food in a hurry.
Having said that, there are some items that everyone will want to keep on hand in the event of a shortage. Things like:
- During the early days of the Covid-19 epidemic, there were shortages of dry commodities such as pasta, grains, beans, and spices. We’re starting to experience some shortages again as a result of supply concerns and sustained high demand. Now is the time to stock your cupboard with basic necessities. Here are some unique ways to use pasta and rice in your dinners. When you see something you like, buy it.
- Canned goods, such as vegetables, fruits, and meats, are convenient to keep and can be prepared in a variety of ways. Individual components take more effort to prepare, but also extend meal alternatives, which is why knowing how to cook from scratch is so important. Processed foods are more expensive and have fewer options. However, if that’s all your family eats, go ahead and stock up! Be aware that processed foods are in low supply at the moment, so basic components may be cheaper and easier to come by.
- Seeds
- Growing your own food is a great way to guarantee you have enough to eat. Gardening takes planning, effort, and hard work, but there’s nothing more delicious or rewarding than eating something you’ve grown yourself. If you’re thinking of starting a garden this year, get your seeds now to avoid the spring rush. To get started, look for videos, books, or local classes to assist you learn about gardening. These suggestions from an expert gardener will also be beneficial.
Buy Extra of the Items You Use Everyday
You may also want to stock up on over-the-counter medicines, vitamin supplements, and immune boosters in case another Covid outbreak occurs. Shortages of pain relievers and flu drugs continue to occur at the onset of each covid wave, which is both predictable and inconvenient.
Is Warren Buffett a REIT Owner?
STORE Capital (STOR -2.56 percent ) is not just a stock in Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK. A 0.83 percent )(BRK. B 0.70 percent ) stock portfolio, but it is also the only real estate investment trust (REIT) in which Warren Buffett’s conglomerate has invested its own money.
In 2022, are REITs a viable investment?
To summarize, we believe that REITs provide some of the strongest risk-to-reward opportunities in today’s market because:
We’re in a period of rising inflation and ultra-low interest rates, which is great for landlords and borrowers.
REIT valuations have just recently recovered to pre-COVID levels, which were also historically low.
REITs have consistently outperformed during rising interest rate cycles, and they are particularly well-positioned to tackle another one today.
After years of undersupply, several property industries now have above-average growth potential, both internal and external.
Some REIT property sectors are currently mispriced, presenting chances for diligent investors to earn alpha-rich returns.
You may put your money into a REIT ETF (VNQ) and expect good returns in the next years. Those who can spot the biggest mispricings, on the other hand, are likely to make the most money. That’s what we’re aiming towards.