If Congress fails to enact a new coronavirus relief package, the US economy will enter a double-dip recession, taking roughly a year longer to recover to pre-pandemic levels, according to an economic prediction provided by S&P Global on Wednesday.
In her research, S&P Global Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “Since June, S&P Global Economics has said that it is not a far-fetched prospect that we may get a scenario of no additional fiscal stimulus and a COVID-19 comeback that cripples growth in the fourth quarter.” “Unfortunately, the worst-case scenario appears to be more likely.”
She went on to suggest that an increase in cases combined with a lack of fiscal stimulus would cause GDP to “decline for two consecutive quarters,” delaying a full recovery until the second half of 2022 and putting “longer-term damage” at risk.
“A one-quarter reduction does not indicate recession on its own. However, it raises the likelihood of another downturn in the United States in the near future,” according to the research.
The usual definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic downturn.
According to the S&P prediction, the economy would contract at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the final three months of 2020, bringing the year’s overall economic contraction to 3.9 percent.
The outlook would deteriorate without a roughly $1 trillion relief plan, according to S&P, and the economy would grow at 0.8 percent next year instead of the 4.2 percent expected.
The chances of a stimulus being implemented before the end of the year are slim. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is pushing for a $500 billion bill, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is pushing for a $2.2 trillion bill.
A bipartisan, bicameral group of lawmakers proposed a $908 billion package this week in the hopes of reaching a settlement.
Is a recession expected in 2021?
Unfortunately, a worldwide economic recession in 2021 appears to be a foregone conclusion. The coronavirus has already wreaked havoc on businesses and economies around the world, and experts predict that the devastation will only get worse. Fortunately, there are methods to prepare for a downturn in the economy: live within your means.
During a double-dip recession, what happens?
A double-dip recession is defined as a downturn followed by a brief recovery before another downturn. For whatever reason, after the initial recession has passed, the recovery stalls, and the economy enters a second wave of recession just as, or perhaps before, it has fully recovered from the losses of the first recession. When gross domestic product (GDP) growth returns to negative after a few quarters of positive growth, this is a good sign of a double-dip recession. A W-shaped recovery is another term for a double-dip recession.
Is the UK on the verge of a second recession?
After the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that coronavirus restrictions slowed growth in November, the UK economy is on the verge of a double-dip recession.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 2.6 percent in November after six consecutive monthly rises, including an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in October.
In November, the services sector was the biggest drag on growth, falling by 3.4 percent as activity limits were restored in several parts of the UK in response to the pandemic. The services industry is presently 9.9% lower than it was in February 2020.
The manufacturing sector also dropped 0.1 percent, remaining 4.7 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
In other news, the construction sector grew by 1.9 percent in November, bringing it back to 0.6 percent above the February 2020 level.
Between October and November, output dropped in all 14 service sub-sectors. Accommodation and food service activities were the biggest contributors to the drop, followed by wholesale and retail commerce, other service activities, and arts, entertainment, and recreation.
According to the ONS, these four sectors accounted for roughly 80% of the decline in services.
Since records began in January 1997, the three largest monthly GDP drops have all occurred in 2020: 18.8% in April, 7.3 percent in March, and 2.6 percent in November.
What is the state of the economy in 2021?
Indeed, the year is starting with little signs of progress, as the late-year spread of omicron, along with the fading tailwind of fiscal stimulus, has experts across Wall Street lowering their GDP projections.
When you add in a Federal Reserve that has shifted from its most accommodative policy in history to hawkish inflation-fighters, the picture changes dramatically. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator currently shows a 0.1 percent increase in first-quarter GDP.
“The economy is slowing and downshifting,” said Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis’ head economist for the Americas and former chief economist for President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council. “It isn’t a recession now, but it will be if the Fed becomes overly aggressive.”
GDP climbed by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, capping a year in which the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States increased by 5.7 percent on an annualized basis. That followed a 3.4 percent drop in 2020, the steepest but shortest recession in US history, caused by a pandemic.
Is a recession expected in 2023?
Rising oil prices and other consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Goldman Sachs, will cut US GDP this year, and the probability of a recession in 2023 has increased to 20% to 30%.
What should I put away in case of economic collapse?
Having a strong quantity of food storage is one of the best strategies to protect your household from economic volatility. In Venezuela, prices doubled every 19 days on average. It doesn’t take long for a loaf of bread to become unattainable at that pace of inflation. According to a BBC News report,
“Venezuelans are starving. Eight out of ten people polled in the country’s annual living conditions survey (Encovi 2017) stated they were eating less because they didn’t have enough food at home. Six out of ten people claimed they went to bed hungry because they couldn’t afford to eat.”
Shelf Stable Everyday Foods
When you are unable to purchase at the grocery store as you regularly do, having a supply of short-term shelf stable goods that you use every day will help reduce the impact. This is referred to as short-term food storage because, while these items are shelf-stable, they will not last as long as long-term staples. To successfully protect against hunger, you must have both.
Canned foods, boxed mixtures, prepared entrees, cold cereal, ketchup, and other similar things are suitable for short-term food preservation. Depending on the food, packaging, and storage circumstances, these foods will last anywhere from 1 to 7 years. Here’s where you can learn more about putting together a short-term supply of everyday meals.
Food takes up a lot of room, and finding a place to store it all while yet allowing for proper organization and rotation can be difficult. Check out some of our friends’ suggestions here.
Investing in food storage is a fantastic idea. Consider the case of hyperinflation in Venezuela, where goods prices have doubled every 19 days on average. That means that a case of six #10 cans of rolled oats purchased today for $24 would cost $12,582,912 in a year…amazing, huh? Above all, you’d have that case of rolled oats on hand to feed your family when food is scarce or costs are exorbitant.
Basic Non-Food Staples
Stock up on toilet paper, feminine hygiene products, shampoo, soaps, contact solution, and other items that you use on a daily basis. What kinds of non-food goods do you buy on a regular basis? This article on personal sanitation may provide you with some ideas for products to include on your shopping list.
Medication and First Aid Supplies
Do you have a chronic medical condition that requires you to take prescription medication? You might want to discuss your options with your doctor to see if you can come up with a plan to keep a little extra cash on hand. Most insurance policies will renew after 25 days. Use the 5-day buffer to your advantage and refill as soon as you’re eligible to build up a backup supply. Your doctor may also be ready to provide you with samples to aid in the development of your supply.
What over-the-counter drugs do you take on a regular basis? Make a back-up supply of over-the-counter pain pills, allergy drugs, cold and flu cures, or whatever other medications you think your family might need. It’s also a good idea to keep a supply of vitamin supplements on hand.
Prepare to treat minor injuries without the assistance of medical personnel. Maintain a well-stocked first-aid kit with all of the necessary equipment.
Make a point of prioritizing your health. Venezuelans are suffering significantly as a result of a lack of medical treatment. Exercise on a regular basis and eat a healthy diet. Get enough rest, fresh air, and sunlight. Keep up with your medical and dental appointments, as well as the other activities that promote health and resilience.
Evidence-based medicine’s widespread impact is set to infiltrate tapas bars and cocktail gatherings.
Double dipping, or dipping a single tortilla chip into guacamole more than once, has been discovered by scientists at Clemson University in South Carolina to be an effective way to spread bacteria from one person to another.
In the 1990s, the American television show Seinfeld popularized double dipping. The accusation is leveled at a character in the series “After being caught dipping the same chip twice, he was asked, “Did you just double dip that chip?” The complainant, Timmy, then states, “It’s like sticking your entire mouth in the dip.”
Paul Dawson, a Clemson University food microbiology, chose to investigate whether double dipping is a true microbiological or health hazard. He enlisted the help of a group of students to devise an experiment to investigate if bacteria were transmitted from the cracker’s mouth to the dip during the cracker’s second visit. The findings have been submitted to the Journal of Food Safety for publication.
Wheat crackers with six different test dips were used by the students. Three of the dips were sterile water with various acidity levels. Salsa, cheese dip, and chocolate syrup were the other dips.
The participants took a mouthful of the cracker and then dipped it in a spoonful of test dip for three seconds. This could be done up to six times, each time with a different cracker.
The results were conclusive: three to six cracker immersions were enough to transmit around 10,000 bacteria from the mouth to the dip. Depending on the size of the bowls and the smoothness of the dips, the researchers estimate that irregular double dipping at a real-life party would spread 50 to 100 bacteria from person to person per meal.
Some dips appear to be more dangerous than others. Salsa allowed for the spread of more bacteria than cheese dip or chocolate sauce.
When did the Great Recession get its heads up?
During the late 2000s, the Great Recession was characterized by a dramatic drop in economic activity. It is often regarded as the worst downturn since the Great Depression. The term “Great Recession” refers to both the United States’ recession, which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, and the worldwide recession that followed in 2009. When the housing market in the United States transitioned from boom to bust, large sums of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and derivatives lost significant value, the economic depression began.