As inflation reaches historic highs, lawmakers and analysts are debating the causes, which include pandemic-related shocks as well as government-imposed limitations and swings in consumer demand.
One New York Times writer remarked this week on Twitter that recent media headlines about inflation are “all hype.” “Policies like the $15 minimum wage” are blamed by “wealthy people.” Instead of being justified in her concern over fast rising prices for everyday items, she claims the recent coverage is “hysteria,” implying that inflation benefits lower-income people since “inflation helps borrowers, and that’s what the fuss is about…not milk prices.”
Minimum wage increases in the past have been shown to induce price increases, which disproportionately affect lower to middle-income persons who spend a bigger amount of their wages on inflation-affected commodities like groceries.
The snowball effect between minimum wage hikes, such as the $15 per hour now in place in numerous states and localities and proposed at the federal level this year, and price increases is documented in a report by Heritage Foundation fellow James Sherk. A $15 federal minimum wage, for example, represents a 107 percent increase over the current federal minimum pay of $7.25 per hour. Employers must adjust their business models to accommodate for the increased labor expenditure when governments enforce substantial minimum wage increases. In many circumstances, this necessitates firms raising consumer pricing to compensate for the higher cost of providing their goods or services. Sherk claims that this hurts minimum wage workers and lower-income consumers the most, because the costs of the products they buy have climbed as well, lowering their newly boosted salaries’ purchasing power.
According to one analysis of the existing minimum wage research, which mostly contains data on price effects from the United States, a 10% rise in the minimum wage raises prices by up to 0.3 percent.
According to one of the studies evaluated by the American Enterprise Institute, the same price boost might produce price rises of up to 2.7 percent in the southern United States, where living costs and earnings are much lower. Recent study also suggests that increased minimum wages have a greater inflationary impact on employers of minimum wage earners. A research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the United States Department of Agriculture indicated that raising the minimum wage more than doubled the price increase effect in fast-food restaurants, and much higher in lower-wage areas.
In addition, a Stanford University economist looked at the impact of price hikes by income level and discovered that while “Minimum wage workers come from a wide range of socioeconomic backgrounds, and raising the minimum wage has the greatest impact on the poorest 20% of households.
Minimum wages encourage firms to raise prices to cover some of the additional pay bill, according to this analysis of previous findings. However, this comes at a price employers must be careful not to raise prices too much, as this will generate price-sensitive client demand. Employers are unable to raise prices if they believe that doing so will reduce demand and result in decreased revenues, which will not be sufficient to fund increases in employee wages. Employers are obliged to adjust costs in other ways if this happens, such as lowering other employee benefits, reducing scheduled hours, or laying off staff entirely.
Sherk claims that the price hike effect of rising minimum wages is combined with large job loss effects, implying that minimum wage people are more likely to lose their jobs or have their hours decreased as their cost of living rises. As a result, he believes that increasing minimum wages is an unproductive approach to provide benefits to low-wage workers due to inflationary and job-killing impacts.
Do rising salaries lead to inflation?
Is Wage Inflation a Common Cause of Inflation? Since its inception, research has disproved wage-push inflation’s hypothesized function as a source of inflation. Higher wages do not lead to higher prices or inflation; rather, higher prices lead to higher incomes.
What impact does a higher minimum wage have on the economy?
Since 2009, the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour has remained unchanged. Increasing it would increase most low-wage employees’ earnings and family income, pulling some families out of povertybut it would also cause other low-wage workers to lose their jobs, and their family income would fall.
The Budgetary Consequences of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 (S. 53), which CBO evaluated in The Budgetary Effects of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021, allows users to study the effects of policies that would raise the federal minimum wage. Users can also build their own policy options to see how different ways to increasing the minimum wage would influence earnings, employment, family income, and poverty.
What exactly is wage inflation?
- Wage push inflation refers to an increase in the cost of goods as a result of a wage increase.
- To sustain profits after an increase in salaries, employers must raise the prices they charge for the goods and services they supply.
- Wage increases and subsequent price increases have a cyclical effect on wages, as greater earnings are required to pay for rising prices of products and services.
What are the drawbacks of increasing the minimum wage?
- Despite numerous attempts to raise the minimum wage, no bill has ever passed both chambers of Congress.
- Minimum wage supporters claim that reforms are needed to help salaries keep up with rising living costs, and that a higher minimum wage will raise millions of people out of poverty.
- Opponents of raising the minimum wage claim that increased salaries will have various negative consequences, including inflation, decreased company competitiveness, and job losses.
Why is increasing the minimum wage a bad idea?
- The Biden administration wants to increase the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour.
- While a $15 minimum wage may benefit some employed employees, the existing data on the supply and demand side of the labor market suggests that it will price others out of the market and exacerbate the problems faced by many small firms.
- On the supply side of the labor market, Black and Hispanic workers, as well as those with lower educational attainment, are most at risk of remaining unemployed; these groups make up a significant proportion of minimum wage earners and are heavily represented in industries that have been negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Small businesses have been severely harmed by the pandemic on the demand side; at its worst, 41 percent of small enterprises in low-income areas closed, with a 46 percent reduction in sales since January 2020.
As part of its COVID-19 economic assistance package, the Biden administration proposes raising the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour. Some argue that by using the budget reconciliation procedure, Congress might raise the minimum wage with a simple majority vote in the Senate. An rise in the minimum wage, especially one as large as the one suggested, would benefit some workers while excluding others from the labor market. According to labor supply data, there are millions of unemployed employees who are low-skilled and have a low level of education. Because of the $15 minimum wage, many employees are likely to remain unemployed. On the demand side, many businesses are facing declining net revenues and, in some cases, closure; this is especially true of small enterprises already hurt by the COVID-19 crisis, which employ a disproportionate number of those individuals. A $15 minimum wage would not only stifle recovery, but it would also harm many of the employees it is supposed to aid.
The pandemic has had an impact on practically every aspect of the economy, but some industries and people have been hit particularly hard. Knowing which industries and types of workers are the most affected by the present economic environment might help determine where a significant rise in the minimum wage will cause the most harm and potentially result in more people losing their jobs.
While the Biden Administration has stated that it is committed to helping low-income individuals and families, particularly those from Black and Hispanic communities, a federally enforced minimum wage of $15 will disproportionately harm these employees. The pandemic’s destructive impact on communities of color has been extensively studied. For example, black and Latino workers make up about a quarter of the service industry workforce yet are underrepresented in management roles. Black and Hispanic workers make up 13 and 24 percent of the workforce in the leisure and hospitality business, respectively.
** Estimates for the racial groupings listed above
Because data for all races is not supplied, the terms white, black, and African American do not add up to totals. People of any race who identify as Hispanic or Latino might be Hispanic or Latino. I
Although the employment situation for Black and Hispanic employees has improved since the peak of unemployment, these groups remain disproportionately represented among the unemployed. A significant increase in the federal minimum wage could push those who are already unemployed out of the labor market, potentially resulting in more layoffs or job losses.
Those with a lower educational level are another group of workers that are particularly vulnerable. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employees who did not complete high school were disproportionately affected by the pandemic, with unemployment soaring to 21% and remaining roughly double that of 2019. Workers with a bachelor’s degree or more, on the other hand, are seeing their jobless rates rebound to 2019 levels. Workers with lower educational attainment are more likely to work at or below the minimum wage, which is unsurprising. Because up-skilling and reskilling programs are not widely available in the United States, and higher education is sometimes prohibitively expensive, workers with low educational attainment and low skills will most likely feel the effects of increasing minimum wage.
Even as the economy begins to recover, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced many firms, particularly small businesses, to close permanently or function on razor-thin margins. Many of these enterprises are already operating in a difficult climate, having had to absorb expenditures connected with increased safety precautions and state-mandated company closures while losing revenue due to decreased activity.
The expense of a $15 minimum wage might drive the most vulnerable businesses to stop hiring, reduce employee hours, eliminate positions, or close entirely.
When COVID-19 initially began to have an impact on businesses, layoffs were concentrated in industries that required in-person assistance. The leisure and hospitality business, for example, saw 40% unemployment at its height and had the highest proportion of low-wage workers, according to 2019 BLS statistics. Mining, construction, transportation, and food services are among the other businesses that have been severely impacted by the pandemic. While there has been progress, unemployment in these industries remains high.
Given the high concentrations of low-paid workers in these industries, many of whom are now unemployed, raising the minimum wage to $15 would create additional barriers to speedy reopening and rehiring, resulting in long-term unemployment for the least educated and skilled individuals.
Due to a lack of revenue and required closures, the pandemic prompted many small businesses to close temporarily; it also forced numerous enterprises to close permanently. The highest percent change in the number of open small enterprises occurred in April 2020, with a 44 percent decrease from January 2020.
The changes in the leisure and hospitality industry, which showed an almost 50% fall in open small enterprises in April 2020 compared to January 2020, are particularly noteworthy. This industry employs the vast majority of people who would be directly impacted by minimum wage hikes, many of whom are likely currently unemployed.
As previously said, closures due to reduced business and mandates resulted in income loss; while many larger businesses were able to withstand the loss, many small enterprises were forced to close permanently or resort to layoffs as a cost-cutting solution. While the Paycheck Protection Program loans, which were established as part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, brought temporary relief to many, businesses are still struggling.
Despite an increase in revenues from April to December, the status of the leisure and hospitality business remains fragile, particularly as the number of cases continues to rise.
Given that the typical non-supervisory wage in the leisure and hospitality industry is less than the proposed $15 minimum wage, these businesses would have to manage the impact of increased costs, which would reduce net revenue even further. Many small firms would be forced to raise prices, limiting demand for goods and services, or reduce hiring, cut worker hours, or eliminate positions if the minimum wage was raised.
An rise in the federal minimum wage will worsen the economic loss already experienced by many firms and their employees. While those who are able to keep their jobs will undoubtedly profit from the raise, many others will suffer further consequences. The enormous number of unemployed people who previously worked as low-wage workers in businesses that have been hit the hardest by the pandemic are particularly vulnerable. It’s unclear whether those personnel will be required to return during this period. As firms balance reduced revenues and increasing expenditures, adding a federally required cost in the form of an increased minimum wage would result in extended unemployment, reduced work hours or hiring, and increased layoffs for low-paid workers.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm; https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2019/home.htm#cps mw whe char.f.1; https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2019/home.htm#cps mw whe_
What is the economic impact of a $15 minimum wage?
“The 1967 minimum wage increase impacted 30% of all Black workers and 20% of all workers overall,” she claimed. “That’s about the same as today’s $15 minimum wage.”
It would relieve poverty and advance development across low-income regions.
One of the most prominent complaints of the proposed $15 hourly wage is that, while it is appropriate for costly urban places like San Francisco or New York, it will impose a significant burden on firms in less affluent areas with lower living costs.
However, Jacobs claimed that comprehensive research into the 1960s minimum wage hike revealed that it “helped to drive gains in growth and productivity” in the South and other low-wage areas.
Reich and Anna Gody, then a research economist at the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment (IRLE), discovered in a groundbreaking 2019 study that a $15 minimum wage in low-wage areas would lift workers and their children out of poverty without causing job loss or having negative consequences for vulnerable women or minorities.
While many states and cities have raised their minimum wages above the federal level, 21 states have kept theirs at $7.25, and ten more have kept it below $10. According to economists, this creates a risk that some states will be stranded in a second-tier economy with low incomes and high poverty. Jacobs and others emphasize that $15 per hour, or $31,000 a year, is not extravagant anywhere.
“That’s a level of salary that permits folks across the United States to meet basic demands,” he explained. “It aligns with some people’s core convictions that workers should be paid enough to survive and support their families, and that businesses should not be permitted to pay wages so low that individuals cannot fulfill their fundamental requirements.”
Why should the minimum wage be increased to $15?
Legislators submitted the “Raise the Wage Act of 2021” in January 2021, with the goal of raising the federal minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $15 per hour by 2025. It would be the first hike in more than a decade, and the longest since 1938, if passed.
Many state and local governments have already established a $15 minimum wage, while the federal minimum wage has stayed unchanged. (In 2014, for example, Seattle mandated that employers gradually raise their minimum wage until it hits $15 per hour.) Seattle’s minimum wage will be $16.69 per hour in 2021.) Nonetheless, such a huge change at the federal level will undoubtedly be controversial and hotly disputed.
Advantages
Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour would help low-income people improve their overall level of life. These workers would be able to cover their monthly expenses more readily, such as rent, car payments, and other household costs. “Today, a full-time worker cannot afford a basic, two-bedroom apartment in any county in the United States,” said Representative Robert Scott, leader of the House Committee on Education and Labor. Senator Bernie Sanders has also stated that the minimum wage should be $15, as he feels that full-time workers should not be forced to live in poverty.
A second, less visible benefit of hiking the minimum wage has been proposed: improved staff morale. Not only will happier employees make for a more cohesive and effective workforce, but they may also increase customer satisfaction. Furthermore, if employees are happy with their jobs and compensation, they are less likely to leave, which saves the company money on hiring and training.
Proponents say that raising the minimum wage to $15 will assist women and minorities. A $15 minimum wage would improve the pay of 31% of African Americans and 26% of Latinos. Furthermore, a disproportionate number of minority workers live in one of the 21 states with a $7.25-per-hour minimum wage.
Disadvantages
Small firms, according to opponents of raising the minimum wage, would suffer as a result of such a significant increase. An rise in the federal minimum wage will dramatically increase small businesses’ operating costs and tighten profits, just as they are beginning to recover from the international Covid-19 outbreak.
Raising the minimum wage to $15 would also boost daycare expenditures by 21% on average in the United States. In 2019, the average hourly wage for an early childcare worker in the United States was $11.65. As a result, a nationally enforced $15 minimum wage would nearly triple the cost of labor for childcare providers.
Advocates on both sides will continue to cite several reasons in favor of their viewpoints as the federal minimum wage debate continues to elicit passionate opinions. Those who oppose a minimum wage claim that market forces should be in charge. If there is a lot of competition for talented personnel, a business may have little choice but to raise salaries to keep staff. Employers and employees should be aware of both sides of the issue and prepare for a change in the federal minimum wage law that is almost certain to occur.
(This article was greatly aided by Logan Adams, a spring clerk in our Dallas office.)
What causes price increases?
- Inflation is the rate at which the price of goods and services in a given economy rises.
- Inflation occurs when prices rise as manufacturing expenses, such as raw materials and wages, rise.
- Inflation can result from an increase in demand for products and services, as people are ready to pay more for them.
- Some businesses benefit from inflation if they are able to charge higher prices for their products as a result of increased demand.
Will the minimum wage raise prices?
Many business executives believe that any raise in the minimum wage will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices, stifling spending and limiting economic growth, but this may not be the case. According to new study, the price pass-through impact is transient and far smaller than previously anticipated.
Daniel MacDonald and Eric Nilsson of California State University, Bernardino, expand the literature on the pricing implications of minimum wage rises in a new Upjohn Institute working paper.
Minimum wage increases have often been big, one-time modifications imposed with minimal previous notice to businesses. However, many recent minimum wage hikes at the state and city levels have been phased in over time and are frequently related to some measure of price inflation. Small, regular minimum wage increases appear to have less of an impact on prices than massive, one-time increases.
MacDonald and Nilsson examine changes in restaurant food pricing from 1978 to 2015 and find that prices climbed by only 0.36 percent for every ten percent increase in the minimum wage, which is less than half the amount found in earlier studies. They also point out that tiny increases in the minimum wage do not necessarily result in higher prices, and may even result in lower prices. Furthermore, small increases in the minimum wage may contribute to an increase in employment in low-wage labor markets.
While the impacts of federal and state minimum wage hikes appear to be similar, additional research is needed to completely understand the consequences of city minimum wage increases.
Read Daniel MacDonald and Eric Nilsson’s The Effects of Increasing the Minimum Wage on Prices: Analyzing the Incidence of Policy Design and Context.
What are the consequences of minimum wages?
OR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME Minimum wages were deemed undesirable by experts, whose typical annual income, according to the American Economic Association (AEA), is $104,000. In a 1992 poll of AEA members, 79 percent of those polled agreed that a minimum wage increased unemployment among young and low-skilled employees. That is about as close to a consensus perspective as can be found in an often combative field. Although many economists agreed that low pay is a serious issue, some contended that no pay is far worse.