Bangladesh, which was once considered one of the world’s poorest countries, recently overtook India in terms of GDP per capita. Indian public are outraged by the news, but the government will not be able to follow Bangladesh’s lead in developing a more prominent low-wage manufacturing export sector. Instead, India requires reforms that will increase the salaries of regular workers, who are the country’s backbone and basis.
The average annual income earned per person in a country is measured as GDP per capita. India’s GDP per capita was $2,104 in 2019. However, by 2020, this figure will have fallen to $1,876, putting the country one spot behind Bangladesh, which has a GDP per capita of $1,887. Unlike India, Bangladesh’s economy has grown steadily over the last three years.
Indian populace are asking that Prime Minister Narendra Modi implement reforms and programs that will increase GDP per capita by raising wages for the country’s working class. Here are four potential approaches for India to increase its GDP per capita.
Ways India’s Government Can Improve GDP
- Farmers’ revenue will rise. In India, agriculture employs 40% of the population, and small-scale farming provides sustenance to many low-income areas. Despite decreasing profitability for farmers, the Indian government has consistently kept agricultural product prices low in favor of consumers. Farmers will be able to sell their products to the highest bidder under the recently introduced 2020 Farm Acts, allowing them to seek bigger wages. Farmers succeed when they are able to support other sectors of the Indian economy through their own purchases. Fertilizer, protective clothing, and tools are all necessities for farmers, especially as their businesses grow. This rise in spending directly results in the creation of new jobs for others.
- Infrastructure spending and investment by the government. The government is in charge of how much money the country spends on public issues each year. Government spending, on the other hand, is required to boost overall GDP per capita. Indian citizens’ salaries have reduced this year, implying lower private consumption. The government will offer individuals with increased convenience and efficiency in their work by investing money on building and repairing roads and bridges, as well as creating construction jobs. Furthermore, by allocating more funds to pay greater salaries, private consumption will rise once again, encouraging increased corporate investment and boosting the import-export market. The government would gain from the economic boost caused by spending a particular amount of money.
- India’s rural people are being urbanized. Economic growth is fueled by urbanization, and because India’s farming population is so large, transferring some of these farmers to cities would allow them to work in manufacturing. Not only would this assist build some of India’s medium-sized cities into more significant urban landscapes, but it would also boost agricultural output by reducing the number of farmers utilizing the same area of land. The government can encourage people to move to cities by offering benefits to rural residents, such as greater infrastructure and urban amenities like transportation and water management. Furthermore, increasing urban populations would resuscitate the housing market and provide banks with greater loan prospects. More development and urbanization will inevitably result in new opportunities for international investment and manufacturing exports.
- Increasing your competitiveness in high-potential industries. By establishing itself as a competitive manufacturer of electronics, chemicals, textiles, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals, India has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion in economic value. In 2018, these sectors accounted for 56% of global trade, but India only contributed 1.5 percent of global exports in these categories. India’s government may make this a reality by increasing urbanization and expanding the manufacturing worker force. The country’s imports currently account for a higher share of world trade than its exports. Increased competitiveness in these areas will not only boost India’s export potential, but also reduce its dependency on imports, lowering the amount of money citizens spend on foreign goods.
While the road to economic recovery is not always as clear as it appears, India’s government has a number of tools at its disposal to help ordinary employees earn more money. The government not only has a motivation, but also an obligation, to improve the living conditions of India’s working class, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. Improving India’s GDP per capita would benefit the country and its people immediately. Greater potential for industrial exports, foreign investment, and urbanization would all be reaped if the country invested in its own working class.
How may India’s GDP be increased?
As a result, India appears to be on track to earn the title of world’s fastest-growing big economy this year and keep it next year.
Keep in mind that, although the Chinese economy grew by 2.3 percent in FY21, the Indian economy shrank by 7.3 percent as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
China’s economic growth slowed more than predicted in the third quarter, owing to a failing property industry that is facing stricter policy measures and an impending energy crisis.
According to The Economist, China’s economic growth is currently being hampered by a “triple shock from energy, property, and the epidemic.”
The difficulties of Evergrande, the insolvent Chinese property giant, are already well-known around the world.
Another stumbling block is the Chinese government’s draconian controls on the country’s tech firms.
India’s growth forecasts for FY22 have been kept at 9.5 percent by the Reserve Bank of India and Standard & Poor’s.
Then there’s the ongoing export boom, which is accompanied by increased tax revenue and lower inflation.
Another good area is the decreasing amount of bad debt burdening the financial system.
Let’s not forget about the soaring corporate earnings, the upbeat industrial production figures, and the ever-increasing number of unicorns.
There are also government initiatives such as Gati Shakti and asset monetisation that are projected to gain traction.
However, significant worries remain about whether high development can be continued in the medium future.
If the forecasts for FY22 and FY23 come true, India will experience the high growth rates of the 2000s once more. However, much work remains to be done if that pace is to be maintained in the future.
What can we do to boost GDP?
- Consumer spending and company investment are generally the driving forces behind economic growth.
- Tax cuts and rebates are used to give money back to consumers and encourage them to spend more.
- Deregulation loosens the laws that firms must follow and is credited with spurring growth, but it can also lead to excessive risk-taking.
- Infrastructure funding is intended to boost productivity by allowing firms to function more effectively and create construction jobs.
How may a country’s GDP be increased?
The external balance of trade is the most essential of all the components that make up a country’s GDP. When the total value of products and services sold by local producers to foreign countries surpasses the total value of foreign goods and services purchased by domestic consumers, a country’s GDP rises. A country is said to have a trade surplus when this happens.
What are the prospects for India’s economy?
India’s economy is a developing market economy with a middle income. It has the sixth-largest nominal GDP and the third-largest purchasing power parity economy in the world (PPP). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India ranks 145th by nominal GDP and 122nd by nominal GDP per capita (PPP). From 1947 through 1991, consecutive administrations advocated protectionist economic policies that included substantial government intervention and regulation. In the form of the License Raj, this is referred to as dirigism. Following the conclusion of the Cold War and a severe balance-of-payments crisis in 1991, India adopted substantial economic liberalization. Annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7% since the beginning of the twenty-first century, and India has surpassed China as the world’s fastest growing major economy from 2013 to 2018 and in 2021. From the first through the nineteenth centuries, India had the world’s largest economy for the majority of the two millennia.
The Indian economy’s long-term development prospects remain optimistic, thanks to its young population and low dependency ratio, healthy savings and investment rates, and increasing globalisation and integration into the global economy. Due to the shocks of “demonetisation” in 2016 and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax in 2017, the economy slowed in 2017. Domestic private consumption accounts for over 70% of India’s GDP. The country’s consumer market is still the world’s sixth largest. Apart from individual consumption, government spending, investment, and exports all contribute to India’s GDP. Pandemic had an impact on trade in 2020, with India becoming the world’s 14th largest importer and 21st largest exporter. Since January 1, 1995, India has been a member of the World Trade Organization. On the Ease of Doing Business Index, it is ranked 63rd, while on the Global Competitiveness Report, it is ranked 68th. With 500 million workers, India had the world’s second-largest labor force. India boasts one of the biggest concentrations of billionaires in the world, as well as substantial income disparity. Fewer than 2% of Indians pay income taxes due to a variety of exclusions.
During the global financial crisis of 2008, the economy experienced a little slowdown. To increase economy and generate demand, India implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Economic growth picked up in the years after that. According to the World Bank, India must focus on public sector reform, infrastructure, agricultural and rural development, removal of land and labor regulations, financial inclusion, boosting private investment and exports, education, and public health in order to achieve sustainable economic development.
The United States, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, and Malaysia were India’s ten major trading partners in 2020. India received $74.4 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 201920. The service sector, the computer industry, and the telecom industry were the major sectors for FDI inflows. India has free trade agreements in place or in the works with a number of countries, including ASEAN, SAFTA, Mercosur, South Korea, Japan, and a number of others.
The service sector accounts for half of GDP and is still developing at a rapid pace, while the industrial and agricultural sectors employ the majority of the workforce. By market capitalization, the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange are among the world’s largest stock exchanges. India is the world’s sixth-largest manufacturer, employing over 57 million people and accounting for 3% of global manufacturing output. Rural India accounts for almost 66 percent of the population and accounts for roughly half of the country’s GDP. It has the fourth-largest foreign-exchange reserves in the world, valued at $631.920 billion. India’s national debt is large, at 86 percent of GDP, and its fiscal deficit is 9.5 percent of GDP. The government-owned banks in India were beset with bad debt, resulting in slow lending growth. At the same time, the NBFC sector has been hit by a liquidity problem. India is dealing with moderate unemployment, rising income disparity, and declining aggregate demand. In FY 2019, India’s gross domestic savings rate was 30.1 percent of GDP. Independent economists and financial institutions have accused the government of falsifying different economic figures, particularly GDP growth, in recent years. India’s GDP in the first quarter of FY22 (Rs 32.38 lakh crore) is roughly 9% lower than in the first quarter of FY20 (Rs 35.67 lakh crore) in 2021.
India is the world’s largest maker of generic pharmaceuticals, and its pharmaceutical industry supplies more than half of the world’s vaccination need. With $191 billion in sales and over four million employees, India’s IT industry is a major exporter of IT services. The chemical sector in India is immensely diverse, with a market value of $178 billion. The tourist sector employs approximately 42 million people and provides roughly 9.2% of India’s GDP. India is the world’s second-largest producer of food and agriculture, with $35.09 billion in agricultural exports. In terms of direct, indirect, and induced effects in all sectors of the economy, the construction and real estate sector ranks third among the 14 key industries. The Indian textiles sector is worth $100 billion, contributing 13% of industrial output and 2.3 percent of GDP while directly employing nearly 45 million people. By the number of mobile phone, smartphone, and internet users, India’s telecommunications industry is the world’s second largest. It is both the world’s 23rd and third-largest oil producer and consumer. India has the world’s fifth-largest vehicle sector in terms of production. India’s retail market is valued $1.17 trillion, accounting for almost 10% of the country’s GDP. It also boasts one of the fastest-growing e-commerce markets in the world. India possesses the world’s fourth-largest natural resources, with the mining industry accounting for 11% of industrial GDP and 2.5 percent of total GDP. It’s also the second-largest coal producer, second-largest cement producer, second-largest steel producer, and third-largest electricity generator on the planet.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What is the formula for GDP?
Gross domestic product (GDP) equals private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports Minus imports).
GDP is usually computed using international standards by the country’s official statistical agency. GDP is calculated in the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department. The System of National Accounts, compiled in 1993 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the international standard for estimating GDP.
How does India generate revenue?
The Indian government generates revenue by levying a variety of taxes, including personal and corporate income taxes, GST on goods and services, and property tax. It also makes money from non-tax sources like interest on loans it makes to entities like states and railways.