Prior to 1979, China had a centrally planned, or command, economy under Chairman Mao Zedong’s direction. The state directed and controlled a substantial portion of the country’s economic output, setting production objectives, controlling prices, and allocating resources across the sector. All of China’s individual household farms were collectivized into big communes in the 1950s. During the 1960s and 1970s, the central government made large-scale expenditures in physical and human capital to promote rapid industrialization. As a result, by 1978, over three-quarters of industrial output was produced by centrally controlled, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with output targets set centrally. Private businesses and foreign-owned businesses were typically prohibited. The Chinese government’s main goal was to make China’s economy largely self-sufficient. In general, foreign trade was confined to obtaining items that could not be manufactured or obtained in China. The economy was distorted as a result of such practices. There were few incentives for firms, workers, and farmers to become more productive or concerned about the quality of what they produced because most aspects of the economy were managed and run by the central government. As a result, there were no market mechanisms to efficiently allocate resources, and thus there were few incentives for firms, workers, and farmers to become more productive or concerned about the quality of what they produced (since they were mainly focused on production goals set by the government).
China’s real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 6.7 percent from 1953 to 1978, according to Chinese government statistics, though the accuracy of these figures has been questioned by many analysts, who contend that Chinese government officials (especially at the subnational levels) often exaggerated production levels for a variety of political reasons during this time. China’s actual average yearly real GDP growth during this period, according to economist Angus Maddison, was around 4.4 percent. 5 Furthermore, China’s economy experienced significant downturns under Chairman Mao Zedong’s leadership, including during the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1962 (which resulted in a massive famine and the deaths of up to 45 million people)6 and the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976 (which resulted in a massive famine and the deaths of up to 45 million people) (which caused widespread political chaos and greatly disrupted the economy). China’s per capita GDP doubled between 1950 and 1978 on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis,7 a typical indicator of a country’s living standards. However, Chinese living standards declined by 20.3 percent between 1958 and 1962, and by 9.6 percent between 1966 and 1968. (see Figure 1). Furthermore, as seen in Figure 2, the rise in Chinese living standards paled in contrast to those in the West, such as Japan.
The Chinese government decided to break with its Soviet-style economic policies in 1978 (shortly after Chairman Mao’s death in 1976) by gradually reforming the economy according to free market principles and opening up trade and investment with the West, in the hopes of significantly increasing economic growth and raising living standards. “Black cat, white cat, what does it matter what color the cat is as long as it catches mice?” said Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s economic reforms. 8
The Introduction of Economic Reforms
China started a series of economic reforms in 1979. Farmers were given price and ownership incentives by the central government, allowing them to sell a portion of their harvests on the open market. Furthermore, the government developed four special economic zones along the coast to attract international investment, increase exports, and import high-tech products into China. Additional reforms, implemented in stages, aimed to decentralize economic policymaking in a number of areas, including trade. Provincial and municipal governments were given economic control of diverse firms, and they were generally allowed to operate and compete on free market principles rather than under the direction and guidance of state planning. Citizens were also encouraged to create their own enterprises. More coastal cities and regions have been classified as open cities and development zones, allowing them to experiment with free-market reforms and give tax and trade advantages to attract international investment. Furthermore, state pricing controls on a variety of products were gradually phased off. China’s economic growth was also aided by trade liberalization. Trade obstacles were removed, allowing for more competitiveness and FDI inflows. China’s incremental economic reforms aimed to determine which policies had positive economic effects (and which did not) so that they might be replicated across the country, a process Deng Xiaoping famously referred to as “crossing the river by touching the stones.” 9
China’s Economic Growth and Reforms: 1979-the Present
China’s economy has developed significantly quicker since economic reforms were implemented, and the country has avoided serious economic upheavals for the most part. 10 China’s annual real GDP averaged 9.5 percent from 1979 to 2018. (see Figure 3). As a result, China’s economy has been able to double in size in real terms every eight years on average. The worldwide economic slowdown that began in 2008 had a major influence on China’s economy. Early in 2009, Chinese media stated that 20 million migrant workers had returned home after losing their jobs due to the financial crisis, and that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 had slowed to 6.8% year-on-year. The Chinese government responded by enacting a $586 billion stimulus program geared primarily at supporting infrastructure and relaxing monetary policy to boost bank lending. 11 As a result of these efforts, China was able to mitigate the consequences of a dramatic drop in worldwide demand for Chinese goods. China’s real GDP growth averaged 9.7% from 2008 to 2010. However, throughout the next six years, the rate of GDP growth fell, falling from 10.6 percent in 2010 to 6.7 percent in 2016. In 2017, real GDP increased to 6.8%, but fell to 6.6 percent in 2018. (although it rose to 6.8 percent in 2017). China’s real GDP growth will decelerate each year over the following six years, according to the IMF’s April 2019 World Economic Outlook, falling to 5.5 percent in 2024. (Figure 4). 12 Many analysts warn that if the US and China continue to apply punitive economic measures against each other, such as tariff rises resulting from US Section 301 action and Chinese retaliation, China’s economic development may decelerate even further. Increased tariffs on all trade between the US and China, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), could cut China’s real GDP by 1.1 percent in 2021-2022, compared to the OECD’s baseline economic predictions. 13
Figure 4: China’s Real Annual GDP Growth from 2007 to 2018, with Forecasts through 2024
Causes of China’s Economic Growth
Much of China’s quick economic growth is attributed to two key factors: large-scale capital investment (funded by substantial domestic savings and foreign investment) and rapid productivity growth, according to economists. These two elements appear to have worked in concert. Economic changes strengthened the economy’s efficiency, resulting in more output and more resources for new investment.
China has a long history of having a high savings rate. Domestic savings as a percentage of GDP was at 32 percent when reforms began in 1979. During this time, however, the majority of Chinese savings were generated through SOE earnings, which were utilised by the central government for domestic investment. Economic reforms, which included decentralization of economic output, resulted in significant increases in both family and business savings in China. As a result, China has the largest gross savings as a proportion of GDP among major economies. China has been able to support a high level of investment due to its substantial domestic savings. In fact, China’s gross domestic savings greatly outnumber its domestic investment, making it a significant net worldwide lender.
Productivity gains (i.e., advances in efficiency) have been identified as another important element in China’s rapid economic growth by a number of experts. Productivity gains were mostly due to a reallocation of resources to more productive uses, particularly in industries like agriculture, trade, and services that were formerly tightly regulated by the government. Agricultural reforms, for example, increased output, allowing employees to pursue jobs in the more productive manufacturing sector. Non-state companies (such as private corporations) arose as a result of China’s economic decentralization, which tended to pursue more productive activities than centrally controlled SOEs and were more market-oriented and efficient. Furthermore, a larger portion of the economy (mostly the export sector) was subjected to competitive dynamics. Local and provincial governments were given unrestricted authority to form and operate businesses without intervention from the federal government. FDI also introduced new technology and procedures to China, which increased efficiency.
However, as China’s technological development converges with that of major developed countries (i.e., through the adoption of foreign technology), productivity gains and, as a result, real GDP growth may slow significantly, unless China becomes a major center for new technology and innovation and/or implements new comprehensive economic reforms. Several developing economies (most notably in Asia and Latin America) experienced rapid economic development and growth in the 1960s and 1970s by implementing some of the same policies that China has used to develop its economy to date, such as measures to boost exports and promote and protect specific industries. However, at some point throughout their development, some of these countries began to face protracted economic stagnation (or substantially slower growth than prior levels), a situation known as the “middle-income trap” by economists. 14 This means that while several developing (low-income) economies were able to transition to a middle-income economy, they were unable to transition to a high-income economy due to their inability to sustain high levels of productivity gains (in part due to their inability to address structural inefficiencies in the economy). 15 China may be at a comparable fork in the road right now. The World Bank uses a per capita gross national income (GNI) approach to classify economic development levels. 16 According to the World Bank, China transitioned from a low-income to a low-middle-income economy in 1997, and then to an upper-middle-income country in 2010. China’s per capita GNI in 2017 was $8,690, which was 38.7% below the amount required to become a high-income economy. According to the Chinese government, China will be able to cross the high-income level by 2025. It intends to accomplish this, in part, by making innovation a key source of future economic growth. Skeptics argue that China’s innovative development will be difficult to achieve, particularly if it is primarily state-driven and imposes new limitations on foreign companies.
Notes: The red bar represents the level at which China would need to achieve in order to become a high-income economy.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), China’s real GDP growth will drop significantly over the next several decades, eventually catching up to US growth rates by 2037. (U.S. and Chinese real GDP growth rates are both projected at 1.9 percent ). For a few years after that, the EIU expects US GDP growth to outpace China’s (Figure 6). 17
Figure 6: Annual Real GDP Growth Rates in the United States and China from 2010 to 2018 and Projections to 2050
The Chinese government has expressed a desire to shift away from its existing economic model of “rapid growth at any cost” to more “smart” growth, which aims to minimize reliance on energy-intensive and high-polluting industries in favor of high technology, renewable energy, and services. China has also stated that it wishes to achieve more balanced economic growth. (These topics are covered in greater depth later in the report.)
How did China boost its GDP?
On a recent episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, Travis Lundy, a Hong Kong-based independent analyst, argued that this signaled a crucial “turn” by Chinese officials. “That means they were telling you straight out that the things we used to do to obtain a high growth rate aren’t going to happen anymore.” That is a policy choice.”
High investment spending, mainly in infrastructure and real estate, has historically been a driver of China’s GDP growth rates. These two industries account for roughly 25% to 30% of China’s GDP. However, there is a limit to how many apartment complexes and bridges can be constructed before those investments become unprofitable. As “ghost cities” emerged and real estate developers accrued debt in recent years, Beijing realized that the fast pace of GDP expansion seen in previous decades was no longer conceivable or sustainable. China’s Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, is the errant poster child for Xi’s criticism of “inflated” or “fake” growth rather than “real” growth.
“The good stuff is high-quality growth,” Pettis remarked, referring to consumption, exports, and corporate investment.
What accounts for the majority of China’s GDP?
The manufacturing sector contributed around 32.6 percent of China’s GDP in 2021. It was by far the largest contributor, followed by the wholesale and retail sector, which contributed 9.7%, and the financial sector, which contributed 8.0 percent to the country’s GDP.
What impact does China have on the global economy?
It is now the world’s second-largest economy, accounting for 9.3% of global GDP (Figure 1). From 1979 to 2009, China’s exports increased by 16 percent per year. China’s exports accounted for only 0.8 percent of world products and nonfactor services at the start of that period.
What is the state of China’s economy?
- According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, GDP increased by 4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. China’s fourth-quarter GDP growth was predicted to be 3.6 percent, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
- Retail sales, on the other hand, fell short of estimates in December, rising only 1.7 percent year over year. Reuters polled analysts, who projected a rise of 3.7 percent.
- According to financial data source Wind Information, China analysts predicted an average annual growth rate of 8.4 percent in 2021.
Is China a wealthy or impoverished country?
China is the world’s wealthiest country. Since 2015, China has had the world’s largest middle class population, which rose to 400 million by 2018 and is expected to reach 1.2 billion by 2027, accounting for one-fourth of the global total. China ranked first in the world in total number of billionaires and second in total number of millionaires in 2018, with 658 billionaires and 3.5 million millionaires. According to Credit Suisse’s global wealth report, China surpassed the United States as the country with the most wealthy people. In other words, a hundred million Chinese people are among the top ten percent of the world’s wealthiest people, with a net personal fortune of at least $110,000, as of 2019. In 2020, China will have more billionaires than the United States and India combined, and by March 2021, China will have 1,058 billionaires with a collective worth of US$4.5 trillion.
What factors influence India’s GDP?
India’s major industry is the services sector. In 2020-21, the services sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to be 96.54 lakh crore INR at current prices. The services industry contributes for 53.89 percent of India’s overall GVA, which is worth 179.15 lakh crore rupees. Industry provides 25.92 percent of GDP, with a GVA of Rs. 46.44 lakh crore. Agriculture and related industries account for 20.19 percent of the total.
Agriculture & allied, Industry, and Services make up 16.38 percent, 29.34 percent, and 54.27 percent of the economy, respectively, at 2011-12 prices.
Primary (agricultural, forestry, fishing, and mining & quarrying) and secondary (manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction) sectors are anticipated to account for 21.82 percent, 24.29 percent, and 53.89 percent of GDP, respectively.
At current prices in 1950-51, the proportions of Agriculture & allied, Industry, and Services were 51.81 percent, 14.16 percent, and 33.25 percent, respectively, according to prior methods. Agriculture and allied sector’s share of GDP fell to 18.20 percent in 2013-14. The Services sector’s share has increased to 57.03 percent. The industry sector’s share has also risen to 24.77 percent.
According to the CIA Fackbook, India’s GDP composition by sector in 2017 was as follows: Agriculture (15.4%), Industry (23%), and Services (23%). (61.5 percent ). India is the world’s second largest producer of agricultural products, with $375.61 billion in production. India produces 7.39 percent of the world’s total agricultural output. India lags well behind China, which has a $991 billion GDP in agriculture. Industry’s GDP is $560.97 billion, and it ranks 6th in the world. India is ranked eighth in the world in the services industry, with a GDP of $1500 billion.
The agricultural industry contributes significantly more to the Indian economy than the global average (6.4 percent ). The participation of the industry and services sectors is lower than the global average of 30% for the industrial sector and 63 percent for the services sector.
What is China’s greatest global contribution?
The four great innovations of ancient China, papermaking, printing, gunpowder, and the compass, are significant contributions of the Chinese nation to world culture.
When did China surpass the United States as the world’s second-largest economy?
In 2010, China overtook Japan to overtake the United States as the world’s second-largest economy in terms of GDP expressed in current dollar values. The United States continues to lead by a significant margin. The US GDP was 2.5 times bigger than China’s in the same year. It’s worth noting, though, that Japan’s per capita GDP was still ten times higher than China’s. Second place was just one of a slew of Chinese victories. For example, in 2009, China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest automotive market, and in the same year, it surpassed Germany as the world’s leading exporter. China has the highest foreign-currency reserves in the world (estimated at close to USD 4,000 billion in early 2014). According to IMF projections from 2014, China’s GDP, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) rather than dollars, outpaced that of the United States. It should be mentioned that the PPP exchange rate calculates the number of dollars required to buy the same amount of goods and services as if the country’s currency unit were used. PPP-expressed GDP is a complicated and sometimes contentious computation, but it eliminates pricing discrepancies between countries, allowing for a more accurate comparison of nations’ real wealth.
What role did China play in globalisation?
The story of China’s progress throughout the four decades since Reform and Opening-Up began is inextricably linked to the globalization movement. Through increased cross-border flows of capital, goods, and people, China has profited from and contributed to globalization. China is now well-positioned to play a positive role in addressing new difficulties related with globalization 4.0, as a result of its progress and ascension on the international stage. This involves contributing to the modernization of global governance processes, acting as a catalyst for regional integration, and continuing to be a global economic engine. The Belt and Road Initiative will also be a key vector for globalization 4.0, as it will help to bring the necessary infrastructure and technologies to every part of the globe.
Is China’s economy expanding?
According to preliminary data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2022, China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by roughly 8.1 percent in 2021, somewhat higher than the IMF’s previous prediction in October 2021. (8.0 percent).