- The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a severe toll on the world economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a 3.9 percent reduction in global GDP from 2019 to 2020, making it the worst economic slump since the Great Depression. While the global economy is expected to recover in 2021, the recovery has been uneven, and gaps in vaccination access and coverage may jeopardize progress in many parts of the world.
- The White House’s U.S. COVID-19 Global Response and Recovery Framework, among other things, aims to boost the economies of countries that have suffered as a result of the pandemic. This will be particularly crucial in countries where the United States has made significant investments in other areas of health, such as PEPFAR, the United States’ global HIV program. COVID-19’s economic effects on the HIV response could be as important as the direct health effects, and hence could have a considerable impact on US efforts in these nations. We looked at the existing and predicted economic impact of COVID-19 in 53 PEPFAR countries to help influence these efforts.
- In general, we find that GDP dropped in the majority of PEPFAR nations in 2020, the year the pandemic broke out, compared to 2019. The contraction was greater than 10% in 11 countries. While PEPFAR countries saw a lower median GDP decline in 2020 than the world economy (1.9 percent vs. 3.9 percent), they performed worse than their economic and geographic peers.
- While the global economy was expected to revive in 2021, the same could not be said for the PEPFAR countries. While almost all PEPFAR countries are expected to expand their GDP in 2021, the anticipated growth, at least through 2024, is expected to be lower than pre-pandemic estimates (10-13 percent below). Global GDP expectations, on the other hand, are currently higher than pre-pandemic estimates. Furthermore, the global economy’s troubles are likely to persist, particularly in low- and middle-income nations, as the strong bounce seen in 2021 is predicted to slow in 2022.
- Finally, economic recovery in PEPFAR countries faces enormous uncertainty, since it will be heavily dependent on the future course of the COVID-19 epidemic, economic relief measures, and vaccine roll-out. Less than a third of the population in 30 of the 53 PEPFAR nations has gotten at least one vaccination dose, and just 10 are on track to reach global COVID-19 vaccine targets this year.
Introduction
The worldwide economy has taken a huge hit as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a 3.9 percent reduction in global median GDP from 2019 to 2020, the worst downturn since the Great Depression. The global economy was predicted to increase last year, in 2021, as countries began to reopen and vaccines became accessible, though still below pre-pandemic estimates, and recovery has been unequal across countries and regions. Furthermore, the IMF has stated that vaccine access is critical to economic recovery “As some countries return to normalcy, others continue to see new waves of illnesses and growing death rates. Indeed, vaccine coverage in low-income nations lags well behind that of other countries, and many are unlikely to meet global vaccine targets at current rates.
A goal under the White House’s COVID-19 Global Response and Recovery Framework is to “bolster economies and other important systems that are under stress as a result of COVID-19 in order to avoid a reversal and facilitate recovery.” This will be especially crucial in countries where the United States has made significant investments in other areas of health, such as PEPFAR, the United States’ global HIV/AIDS program. Because HIV is an infectious disease with no vaccine or cure, the economic consequences of COVID-19 on the HIV response could be as significant as, if not more so, than the direct health consequences.
COVID-19’s current and predicted economic impact in PEPFAR nations is examined in this brief. We used data from the World Economic Outlook (WEO)1 of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on GDP and GDP growth projections2 for 53 countries3 that were required under PEPFAR to submit a Country Operational Plan (COP/ROP) in FY 2020. 4 To further comprehend the expected economic impact, we compared the IMF’s WEO pre-pandemic and current data predictions. Pre-pandemic projections were collected from the WEO database in October 2019, and current data projections were taken from the WEO database in October 2021. The appendix offers WEO GDP growth data for all 53 PEPFAR nations as of October 2021, as well as the world median aggregate.
Economic Impact of COVID-19 in 2020
Almost all PEPFAR nations saw GDP reductions in 2020, and many performed worse than their economic and regional rivals. Nonetheless, PEPFAR countries as a whole saw a smaller recession in 2020 than the world economy.
- In 2020, 32 of the 53 PEPFAR nations (60 percent) are expected to have seen GDP declines. The contraction was greater than 10% in 11 countries. Three of the top five countries with the highest estimated contractions (Angola, Zambia, and Namibia) were in Sub-Saharan Africa, while the other two (Brazil and Panama) were in the Western Hemisphere. The contractions varied from -0.04% in Nicaragua to -30.90% in Angola (see Figure 1).
- In 2020, 21 PEPFAR nations saw positive GDP growth (see Figure 1), however growth was lower in 11 of these countries than in 2019. (see Appendix 1).
- PEPFAR countries as a group saw less recession in 2020 than the global economy (1.9 percent median decline in PEPFAR countries vs. 3.9 percent overall) (see Figure 1), however they lagged behind their economic and geographical peers (see Figure 2).
Is it possible to get COVID-19 through sex?
Whether you’re engaging in sexual activity or not, any close contact (within 6 feet or 2 meters) with an infected person can expose you to the virus that causes coronavirus illness 2019 (COVID-19).
What impact did the COVID-19 economic crisis have on people during the pandemic?
The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences were devastating. Tens of millions of individuals lost their employment in the early months of the crisis. While employment began to improve after a few months, unemployment remained high in 2020.
Is it possible to contract COVID-19 via kissing?
Kissing. There’s a lot more chance for kissing (or even more personal action) these days if you’re quarantining with your lover but with COVID levels rising, you might be wondering: Can I catch COVID-19 through kissing (or even more intimate activity)?
Because the virus that causes COVID-19 spreads by saliva, exchanging spit with an infected individual can transmit the virus to you.
However, if you’re kissing someone you live with who isn’t sick, the risk is generally low, especially if you’re confident that neither of you has been exposed to the virus.
Although the coronavirus is not considered a sexually transmitted disease, close, sustained sexual contact allows the virus to spread from one person to another. The virus can be found in a person’s saliva as well as in the invisible droplets of air they exhale. When kissing or having sex, you run the chance of contracting the virus by coming into direct touch with the other person’s saliva or inhaling the virus that they’re exhaling with each breath.
If you and your live-in partner practice good COVID-19 hygiene, such as wearing face masks in public, keeping a social distance of at least six feet from other people, and washing your hands frequently, it’s safe to assume that neither of you is infected as long as neither of you is exhibiting symptoms.
If you or your spouse, on the other hand, shows signs of disease, such as fever, chills, or coughing, that person should self-isolate, and you should not kiss or have intercourse with that person. Whether your companion has COVID-19, influenza, or any other contagious condition, this is true. Nobody wants to infect their sweetheart with a disease!
What has been the environmental impact of the COVID-19 pandemic?
The COVID-19’s global disruption has had a number of consequences for the ecosystem and climate. Air quality has improved in many cities, and water pollution has decreased in several parts of the world, as a result of movement restrictions and a considerable slowdown in social and economic activities. Furthermore, increased use of personal protective equipment (e.g., face masks, hand gloves), their haphazard disposal, and the development of a large amount of hospital trash have significant environmental consequences. COVID-19 has both beneficial and bad environmental consequences.
How long does it take for a person infected with COVID-19 to develop symptoms?
COVID-19 has been linked to a wide spectrum of symptoms, from minor aches and pains to serious sickness. Symptoms might emerge anywhere from 2 to 14 days after being exposed to the virus. Symptoms might range from moderate to severe. COVID-19 is a virus that causes these symptoms in people.
What are some of the harmful psychological repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic quarantine?
Post-traumatic stress symptoms, bewilderment, and rage were all documented in the majority of the studies evaluated. Longer quarantine periods, virus fears, frustration, boredom, insufficient supplies, insufficient knowledge, financial loss, and stigma were all stressors.
How did COVID-19 effect teenagers’ home income?
During COVID-19, many adolescent families’ household income was impacted by job loss and missed pay. Insecurity in the workplace has been connected to poor growth, academic achievement, and health effects.
Is the coronavirus outbreak having an impact on our mental health?
As the coronavirus pandemic spreads around the globe, it is causing widespread dread, worry, and concern among the general public, as well as specific groups such as older folks, caregivers, and those with underlying health concerns.
To date, the main psychological impact on public mental health has been increased rates of stress or worry. Loneliness, sadness, destructive drinking and drug use, and self-harm or suicide behavior are all likely to escalate as additional measures and affects are implemented, particularly quarantine and its implications on many people’s customary activities, routines, or livelihoods.
Issues of service access and continuity for people with emerging or current mental health illnesses, as well as the mental health and well-being of frontline workers, are becoming a major concern in areas already heavily affected, such as Lombardy in Italy.
WHO collaborated with partners to develop a series of new resources on the mental health and psychosocial support aspects of COVID-19 as part of its public health response.
COVID-19 lasts how long on human skin?
9th of October, 2020 According to a study published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers in Japan revealed that the coronavirus can survive on human skin for up to nine hours, adding to the growing body of evidence that regular hand washing can help prevent the virus from spreading.
The life periods of the coronavirus and influenza A (flu) virus were studied by researchers from Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine.
They put samples of the coronavirus and influenza virus to human skin acquired from autopsy specimens collected no more than one day after death to avoid endangering humans, according to the study.
The coronavirus lasted 9.04 hours on that skin, while influenza A lasted 1.82 hours.
The 9-hour survivability of SARS-CoV-2 on human skin, compared to IAV (influenza A), may enhance the likelihood of contact transmission, hastening the pandemic. Hand cleanliness is critical in preventing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infections, according to the study.
To simulate a sneeze or cough, the researchers combined samples with mucus. According to the study, the coronavirus lasted 11.09 hours and influenza A lasted 1.69 hours. Three persons with acute upper respiratory tract illnesses provided the mucus.
The COVID-19 virus and the influenza A virus were both completely inactivated within 15 seconds of being exposed to ethanol, according to the study.
One weakness of the study, according to the researchers, is that just one coronavirus strain and one influenza strain were employed.
According to a research published in March by the National Institutes of Health, the virus may survive for four hours on copper, 24 hours on cardboard, and 72 hours on stainless steel.