“You can’t count everything that counts, and you can’t count everything that counts.”
Introduction
The entire market value, expressed in dollars, of all final products and services produced in an economy in a given year is known as GDP. GDP measures whether an economy is producing more (growing) or less (contracting) production when compared to earlier times (contracting). As a result, it is a useful indicator of the economy’s health and one of the most important and widely published economic indicators. When making decisions, a wide range of people, from business owners to lawmakers, evaluate GDP. Furthermore, foreign trade is included in GDP and is a significant and rising portion of our country’s economy. It’s also a significant, though divisive, political topic. However, if not adequately described, the current textbook and classroom explanation of how international trade is measured as part of GDP might lead to misconceptions. This post aims to dispel common misconceptions and provide clear guidance.
Measuring GDP
As you might expect, determining the total worth of all the commodities and services produced in a given economy is a difficult undertaking. Gross domestic product (GDP) can be calculated using either total expenditures or total income. Here’s a short hypothetical example to illustrate the point. Fred and Sarah dwell on the lonely island of Islandia. Sarah climbs trees to get coconuts while Fred catches fish in the bay. Fred and Sarah create and buy goods in this caseFred sells fish to Sarah, while Sarah sells coconuts to Fred. Fred sells 10 fish to Sarah for 4 shells (island currency) each, for a total of 40 shells in a certain period. Sarah harvests 15 coconuts and sells them to Fred for 3 shells each, for a total of 45 shells. We can determine the worth of island output by measuring either their expenditures (spending) or the money they generate from creating and selling their products. When Fred sells his produce to Sarah, he earns 40 shells, and Sarah earns 45 shells when she sells to Fred; the GDP of Islandia is 85 shells when employing the income strategy. Similarly, if we track total spending, Fred spends 45 shells on coconuts and Sarah spends 40 shells on fish; the GDP of Islandia is also 85 shells if we use the expenditure method. Because every expenditure is a person’s income and vice versa, either measurement method yields the same conclusion. Tracking a genuine economy, on the other hand, is a little more difficult.
Domestic Expenditures
The expenditure approach is a common textbook model of GDP, in which spending is divided into four buckets: personal consumption expenditures (C), gross private investment (I), government purchases (G), and net exports (X M), which includes both exports and imports (M). This is frequently captured in textbooks by a single, reasonably simple equation:
Because of the way the variables are defined, the equation is an identityit is true for all values of the variables (Table 1). As a result, every dollar spent on C, I, G, or X increases GDP by one dollar. To put it another way, if you spend $30,000 on a car (made in the United States), you will be adding $30,000 to your personal consumption expenditures (C) category. In addition, the GDP would rise by $30,000. The same would be true if the money was spent by a company (I) on technology or equipment, or by the government (G) on infrastructure or public schools. Because one person’s expenditure is another’s income, the income technique should produce identical results.
Barney’s Bananas
Assume Fred and Sarah “find” a habitable island nearby. On the adjoining island, Barney sells Sarah 10 bananas for 3 shells apiece, while Sarah sells Barney 10 coconuts for 3 shells each. Sarah considers bananas to be imports and coconuts to be exports. What impact does this have on Islandia’s GDP? The 30 shells Sarah receives by exporting to Barney contribute to Islandia’s GDP since GDP gauges the worth of items produced on the island. However, because the imported items (bananas) were not produced on the island, their value is not included in Islandia’s GDP. Keep in mind that GDP is a measure of domestic production. To be clear, the value of the imported bananas has no bearing on Islandia’s GDP because imports have no bearing on GDP. Even though GDP = C + I + G + (X M), the next section explains why imports do not add to or subtract from GDP. Barney’s bananas, in case you were wondering, would be counted as GDP on Barney’s island.
The Misleading Aspects of Net Exports
The net exports element of the expenditures equation (X M) accounts for international trade. Exports (X) are added in the same way as the other variables (C, I, and G) are, and they contribute to GDPan additional dollar of spending boosts GDP by one dollar. Imports (M) are removed from the expenditures equation. On the surface, this means that every additional dollar spent on imports (M) reduces GDP by one dollar. Let’s say you spend $30,000 on an imported car; the equation appears to imply that $30,000 should be deducted from GDP because imports are subtracted (i.e., ” M”) (Table 2). However, because GDP is a measure of domestic production, imports (foreign production) should have no bearing on GDP.
Correcting Misconceptions
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses the National Income and Product Accounts to categorize spending when measuring economic output (NIPA). Imported items account for a portion of this spending, which is denoted by the letters C, I, and G. 1 As a result, the value of imports must be deducted from GDP to ensure that only domestic expenditure is counted. For example, a $30,000 personal consumption expenditure (C) on an imported car is deducted as an import (M) to guarantee that only the value of domestic manufacturing is counted (Table 3). As a result, the imports variable (M) is used as an accounting variable rather than a cost variable. To be clear, buying domestic goods and services boosts GDP because it boosts domestic production, whereas buying imported goods and services has no direct effect on GDP.
In a global economy where few commodities fall neatly into the two buckets of being produced either domestically or abroad, this method to GDP enables for accurate accounting of intermediate goods. In actuality, the majority of “domestically made” goods contain some foreign components or parts. It’s also worth noting that, whereas C, I, and G only track spending on finished goods and services, exports (X) and imports (M) include intermediate commodities as well. 2 For example, if $10,000 in imported parts are used in the production of a car in a U.S. factory (an “American” car) and the car is sold for $30,000 in the United States, the $30,000 counts as personal consumption expenditures (C), but $10,000 is deducted to account for the value of the imported (M) parts, resulting in a $20,000 effect on U.S. GDP (Table 4).
Intermediate products exports are also taken into account.
3 Assume an American company makes and sells $30,000 worth of parts to a foreign company that utilizes them to construct a product in its own country. While final commodities and services are the focus of most GDP calculations, exports of intermediate goods also contribute to GDP. In this scenario, exporting $30,000 in parts will result in a $30,000 rise in US GDP (Table 5). Many items have a really global aspect, and this accounting helps capture that.
Conclusion
GDP is a measure of domestic final goods and services production. The expenditure technique determines GDP by adding up all domestic spending; nevertheless, as stated, the equation can lead to a misunderstanding of how imports effect GDP. The spending equation, in particular, appears to imply that imports lower economic output. For example, net exports (X M) have been negative in nearly every quarter since 1976 (see graph in Table 1), implying that trade reduces domestic output and growth. This may have an impact on people’s views on trade. The imports variable (M) corrects for imports that have previously been classified as personal consumption (C), gross private investment (I), or government purchases, according to this essay (G). Also keep in mind that while purchasing domestic goods and services should boost GDP, purchasing imported products and services should have no direct influence on GDP.
NOTE: Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of economic growth. The contributions of personal consumption expenditures (blue), gross private investment (red), government purchases (purple), and net exports are shown in a GDP stacking graph (green). Since 1976, net exports have been negative in practically every quarter. The graph’s appearance suggests that net exports are a drag on economic growth.
Notes
“Measuring the Economy: A Primer on GDP and the National Income and Product Accounts,” Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2015;
https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa primer.pdf.
2 Fox, D.R., and McCully, C.P., “Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Handbook, 2017, https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/all-chapters.pdf, accessed January 10, 2018.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis issued this statement in 2018. The author(s)’ opinions are their own, and they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.
Does importation reduce GDP?
When a country exports things, it is selling them to a foreign market, such as consumers, enterprises, or governments. These exports bring money into the country, increasing the GDP of the exporting country. When a country imports items, it does so from overseas manufacturers. The money spent on imports leaves the economy, lowering the GDP of the importing country.
Negative or positive net exports are possible. Net exports are positive when exports outnumber imports. Net exports are negative when exports are less than imports. If a country exports $100 billion worth of goods and imports $80 billion, it has $20 billion in net exports. This sum is added to the GDP of the country. If a country exports $80 billion in goods and imports $100 billion, it has negative net exports of $20 billion, which is deducted from GDP.
Net exports might theoretically be zero, with exports equaling imports, and this does happen in the United States on occasion.
A country’s trade balance is positive if net exports are positive. If they’re negative, the country’s trade balance is negative. Almost every country in the world desires a larger economy rather than a smaller one. That is to say, no country wishes to have a negative trade balance.
Quiz on how imports effect GDP.
Imports are removed from GDP in the United States, while exports are added. Exports from the United States are as much a component of the country’s production as consumer spending on products and services produced in the country. As a result, exports from the United States must be included in GDP.
Why are imports counted as part of GDP?
Because it might lead to major misinterpretations, it is critical to highlight why imports are removed from the national income identity. First, based on the identity, one would infer (incorrectly) that imports are deducted because they are a cost to the economy. This debate frequently develops as a result of the traditional political focus on jobs or employment. As a result, larger imports mean that things that could have been produced in the United States are now being manufactured elsewhere. This might be viewed as an opportunity cost for the economy, justifying the exclusion of imports from the identity. This reasoning, however, is incorrect.
The second common misunderstanding is that the identity is used to infer a link between imports and GDP growth. As a result, economists frequently state that GDP grew at a slower-than-expected rate last quarter due to higher-than-expected imports. Because, obviously, if imports grow, GDP declines, the identity suggests this link. This interpretation, however, is incorrect as well.
Imports are removed from national revenue because they appear as hidden aspects in consumption, investment, government, and exports. As a result, imports must be deducted from the total to ensure that only domestically produced goods are tallied. Take into account the following details.
Consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, government expenditures, and exports are all calculated without taking into consideration where the acquired items were created. Consumption expenditures (C) is a measure of domestic spending on both domestically and internationally produced items. A television imported from Korea, for example, would be included in domestic consumption expenditures if purchased by a U.S. resident. Similarly, if a company buys a microscope built in Germany, that transaction is counted as domestic investment. When the government purchases foreign commodities to supply its overseas embassies, those transactions are counted as government spending. Finally, the value of the initial imports will be included in the value of domestic exports if an intermediate product is imported, utilized to manufacture another good, and then exported.
This suggests that the national income identity could be rewritten as follows:
ECON lowdown: How do imports effect GDP?
When a country imports items, it does so from overseas manufacturers. The money spent on imports leaves the economy, lowering the GDP of the importing country.
What are the four GDP factors?
Investment spending, net exports, government spending, and consumption are not moving in lockstep. Their levels of volatility, in fact, are vastly different. By plotting the annual % changes of each component in FRED, we can see this. Investment (solid red) and net exports (solid yellow) are highly volatile, fluctuating dramatically during economic downturns and booms. Government spending (dashed blue) and consumption (dashed green), on the other hand, are quite stable; while they do fluctuate with the business cycle, they do so to a considerably lesser amount. The efficiency of monetary policy may be influenced by this pattern. When the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates, investment spending and U.S. exports become less expensive, according to economic textbooks. As a result, when the Fed reduces rates, it has an impact on the two factors that contribute disproportionately to any given change in GDP.
This graph was made in the following way: Using the “Add Data Series” function, combine all of the series given below into one graph. Choose “Percent Change from a Year Ago” as their unit of measure. Set “Line Width” to 1 for all four and use the “Line Style” option to provide solid lines to the first two series and dashed lines to the last two. Finally, for each series, use the “Color” option to color the lines however you want.
What is the formula for GDP?
Gross domestic product (GDP) equals private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports Minus imports).
GDP is usually computed using international standards by the country’s official statistical agency. GDP is calculated in the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department. The System of National Accounts, compiled in 1993 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the international standard for estimating GDP.
How are GDP imports calculated?
Imports (M) are subtracted in this case. On the surface, this means that every additional dollar spent on imports (M) reduces GDP by one dollar. Let’s say you spent $30,000 on a car that was imported; because imports are deducted (e.g., ” M”), the equation appears to suggest that $30,000 be deducted from GDP. However, because GDP is a measure of domestic production, imports (foreign production) should have no effect on GDP.
When the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA; see its primer on this issue) calculates economic output, it uses the National Income and Product Accounts to categorize spending (NIPA). Imported items account for a portion of this spending (which is denoted by the letters C, I, and G). As a result, the value of imports must be deducted from GDP to ensure that only domestic expenditure is counted. For example, a $30,000 personal consumption expenditure (C) on an imported car is deducted as an import (M) to guarantee that only the value of domestic manufacturing is counted. As a result, the imports variable (M) is used as an accounting variable rather than a cost variable. To be clear, buying domestic goods and services boosts GDP because it boosts domestic production, whereas buying imported goods and services has no direct effect on GDP.
When the GDP components are stacked using the FRED release view, the assumption that imports diminish GDP appears to be inferred as well. Take note of the green “The “net exports” section is negative. Because the money value of imported products and services exceeds the dollar value of exported goods and services, this occurs. While this feature of net exports (X M) can be helpful in determining how international commerce influences economic activity, it can also be misleading. It appears (visually) that imports diminish overall GDP, similar to the misleading elements of the spending equation. While the graph is correct, it is vital to remember that the value of imports is subtracted from the other components of GDP (personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government consumption expenditures, and gross investment), not from exports, when computing GDP. It’s worth emphasizing that the imports variable (M) is an accounting variable, not a spending variable.
See this FRED blog post for instructions on how to make your own GDP stacking graph. Read the September 2018 issue of Page One Economics for a more detailed explanation of GDP and the expenditures equation.
Is GDP adjusted for imports?
The external balance of trade is the most essential of all the components that make up a country’s GDP. When the total value of products and services sold by local producers to foreign countries surpasses the total value of foreign goods and services purchased by domestic consumers, a country’s GDP rises. A country is said to have a trade surplus when this happens.