How Do REITs Perform During A Recession?

Since 1991, U.S. REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7% annually in late-cycle periods and have provided considerable downside protection in recessions, highlighting the potential value of conservative, lease-based revenues and high dividend yields in an uncertain environment (see chart below).

In 2021, are REITs a viable investment?

REITs provide investors with a number of advantages that make them an excellent addition to any investment portfolio. Competitive long-term performance, attractive income, liquidity, transparency, and diversification are just a few of them.

Competitive long-term performance

REITs have historically outperformed stocks, especially over lengthy periods of time. REITs, as assessed by the FTSE Nareit Composite Index, have generated a compound annual average total return (stock price appreciation plus dividend income) of 11.4 percent over the last 45 years. That’s only a smidgeon less than the S&P 500’s annual return of 11.5 percent over the same time period.

During various occasions, REITs have outperformed stocks. For example, during the last three, five, ten, fifteen, twenty, twenty-five, twenty-five, thirty, thirty-five, and forty years, they have outperformed small-cap equities as assessed by the Russell 2000 Index. Small-cap companies have only outperformed REITs once in the last year. Meanwhile, during the last 20 years, 25 years, and 30 years, REITs have outperformed large-cap equities (the Russell 1000 Index). Finally, they’ve outperformed bonds over the previous 40 years in every historical period.

Attractive income

The fact that most REITs pay attractive dividends is one of the reasons they have earned strong total returns over time. In mid-2021, for example, the average REIT yielded over 3%, more than double the dividend yield of the S&P 500. Over time, the income mounts up because it accounts for the majority of a REIT’s total return.

REITs pay high dividends because they are required to release 90% of their taxable income to comply with IRS laws. Most REITs, on the other hand, pay out more than 90% of their taxable income since their cash flows, as measured by funds from operations (FFO), are sometimes significantly greater than net income due to REITs’ proclivity for recording significant amounts of depreciation each year.

Many REITs have a strong track record of raising dividends over time. Federal Realty Investment Trust, for example, raised its dividend for the 53rd year in a row in 2021, the longest streak in the REIT business. Several other REITs have a long history of boosting their payouts at least once a year.

Liquidity

Real estate is an illiquid investment, which means that it is difficult to convert into cash. Consider the case of a single-family rental (SFR) property owner who needs to sell to finance a large expense. In that situation, they’d have to put the house on the market, wait for a suitable offer, and hope that nothing goes wrong on the way to closing. Depending on market conditions, it could take months before they can convert the property into cash. A real estate agent charge, as well as other closing costs, would almost certainly be required.

If a REIT investor needed money, on the other hand, they could click into their online brokerage account and sell REIT shares whenever the market was open. A REIT investor would also avoid paying commissions when selling because most brokers do not charge commissions.

Transparency

Many private real estate investments are run with little or no supervision. As a result, real estate sponsors may make judgments that aren’t necessarily in their investors’ best interests.

REITs, on the other hand, are quite transparent. The performance of REITs is monitored by independent directors, analysts, auditors, and the financial media. They must also file financial reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This oversight provides a layer of safety for REIT investors, ensuring that management teams are unable to take advantage of them for personal gain.

Diversification

REITs allow investors to diversify their portfolios throughout the commercial real estate industry, reducing their reliance on stock and bond markets. This diversification reduces an investor’s risk profile while not lowering rewards.

For example, with a Sharp Ratio of 0.27 and a standard deviation of 10, a typically balanced portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds has historically earned a bit higher than 7.8% return over the past 20 years. The Sharp Ratio compares risk to a risk-free investment, such as a US Treasury bond, with a higher number reflecting a better risk-adjusted return. The standard deviation, on the other hand, is a statistical measure of volatility, with a greater figure indicating a riskier investment. For the sake of comparison, a more aggressive strategy of 80 percent stocks and 20 percent bonds has historically produced around 8.3%, but with a Sharp Ratio of 0.17 and a standard deviation of more than 13.

  • With a Sharp Ratio of 0.34 and a standard deviation of around 10.5, a 55 percent stock/35 percent bond/10 percent REIT portfolio has historically provided a yearly return of around 8.3 percent.
  • A 40 percent stock/40 percent bond/20 percent REIT portfolio has historically had an annualized return of slightly more than 8.4%, with a Sharp Ratio of 0.46 and a standard deviation of less than 10.
  • With a Sharp Ratio of 0.49 and a standard deviation of roughly 11.5, a 33.3 percent spread across stocks, bonds, and REITs has yielded an almost 9% average annual rate of return.

As a result, adding REITs to a portfolio should help it produce superior risk-adjusted returns by reducing volatility.

In 2021, how are REITs performing?

The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index had a 41.3 percent total return in 2021, while the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs index had a 43.2 percent total return. As indicated in the figure below, 2017 is the second-best year on record, dating back to the commencement of the index series on Dec. 31, 1971. Mortgage REITs performed well, with returns of 22.5 percent for commercial financing and 11.5 percent for residential financing. In 2021, broader markets also had a solid annual performance, with the Russell 1000 returning 26.5 percent.

Before the market crashes, where should I deposit my money?

The best way to protect yourself from a market meltdown is to invest in a varied portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. You may reduce the impact of assets falling in value by spreading your money across a number of asset classes, company sizes, and regions. This also increases your chances of holding assets that rise in value. When the stock market falls, other assets usually rise to compensate for the losses.

Bet on Basics: Consumer cyclicals and essentials

Consumer cyclicals occur when the economy begins to weaken and consumers continue to buy critical products and services. They still go to the doctor, pay their bills, and shop for groceries and toiletries at the supermarket. While some industries may suffer along with the rest of the market, their losses are usually less severe. Furthermore, many of these companies pay out high dividends, which can help offset a drop in stock prices.

Boost Your Wealth’s Stability: Cash and Equivalents

When the market corrects, cash reigns supreme. You won’t lose value as the market falls as long as inflation stays low and you’ll be able to take advantage of deals before they rebound. Just keep in mind that interest rates are near all-time lows, and inflation depreciates cash, so you don’t want to keep your money in cash for too long. To earn the best interest rates, consider investing in a money market fund or a high-yield savings account.

Go for Safety: Government Bonds

Investing in US Treasury notes yields high returns on low-risk investments. The federal government has never missed a payment, despite coming close in the past. As investors get concerned about other segments of the market, Treasuries give stability. Consider placing some of your money into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities now that inflation is at generational highs and interest rates are approaching all-time lows. After a year, they provide significant returns and liquidity. Don’t forget about Series I Savings Bonds.

Go for Gold, or Other Precious Metals

Gold is seen as a store of value, and demand for the precious metal rises during times of uncertainty. Other precious metals have similar properties and may be more appealing. Physical precious metals can be purchased and held by investors, but storage and insurance costs may apply. Precious metal funds and ETFs, options, futures, and mining corporations are among the other investing choices.

Lock in Guaranteed Returns

The issuers of annuities and bank certificates of deposit (CDs) guarantee their returns. Fixed-rate, variable-rate, and equity-indexed annuities are only some of the options. CDs pay a fixed rate of interest for a set period of time, usually between 30 days and five years. When the CD expires, you have the option of taking the money out without penalty or reinvesting it at current rates. If you need to access your money, both annuities and CDs are liquid, although you will usually be charged a fee if you withdraw before the maturity date.

Invest in Real Estate

Even when the stock market is in freefall, real estate provides a tangible asset that can generate positive returns. Property owners might profit by flipping homes or purchasing properties to rent out. Consider real estate investment trusts, real estate funds, tax liens, or mortgage notes if you don’t want the obligation of owning a specific property.

Convert Traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs

In a market fall, the cost of converting traditional IRA funds to Roth IRA funds, which is a taxable event, is drastically lowered. In other words, if you’ve been putting off a conversion because of the upfront taxes you’ll have to pay, a market crash or bear market could make it much less expensive.

Roll the Dice: Profit off the Downturn

A put option allows investors to bet against a company’s or index’s future performance. It allows the owner of an option contract the ability to sell at a certain price at any time prior to a specified date. Put options are a terrific way to protect against market falls, but they do come with some risk, as do all investments.

Use the Tax Code Tactically

When making modifications to your portfolio to shield yourself from a market crash, it’s important to understand how those changes will affect your taxes. Selling an investment could result in a tax burden so big that it causes more issues than it solves. In a market crash, bear market, or even a downturn, tax-loss harvesting can be a prudent strategy.

Is 2022 a favourable year for real estate investment trusts?

Last year, real estate investment trusts (REITs) were one of the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, with a total return of +46.2 percent (price appreciation plus dividends), compared to +28.7 percent for the index as a whole. In 2022, investors who hold the top REITs may be in line for even more outperformance.

The consistent strength of REIT dividends is the key reason they remain so popular with investors year after year. Remember that REITs must distribute at least 90% of their taxable profits as dividends (in return for some generous tax breaks). The S&P 500 Real Estate sector now has a dividend yield of 2.5 percent, which is higher than the broader index’s 1.4 percent yield. Many of the finest REITs pay out much more money.

Will REITs be successful in 2022?

In January, REITs with a micro cap (-1.65%) and a small cap (-5.47%) outperformed their larger peers. Mid caps (-5.77%) and large caps (-7.20%) underperformed due to significant losses at the start of the year. In January 2021, after a year in which large caps dominated and micro caps trailed far behind, a significant turnaround occurred, with a substantial negative correlation between total return and market cap. On a YTD 2022 total return basis, small cap REITs outperform large caps by 173 basis points.

Is it a good time to buy REITs in 2022?

This will be a period of economic expansion that will fuel recovery across a broad variety of real estate and REIT industries, assuming COVID-19 versions remain substantially in check. As Calvin Schnure of Nareit summarizes, the coming year is likely to see a significant improvement in overall economic conditions, with higher GDP, job growth, and incomes, in a supportive financial market environment where inflation pressures gradually subside and long-term interest rates remain well below historical norms.

The Paul Simon lyric “nothing is different, yet everything’s changed” resonates as we hopefully transition out of this period of human loss and economic and social turmoil. Schnure’s perspective takes into account what we may deduce about which of the enormous changes in how we interact with real estate and the built environment are permanent and which are transient. Most importantly, he discusses how rising digitization of shopping will affect retail, as well as how the future of office use will alter as companies return to the office and experiment with hybrid and work-from-home arrangements.

Do REITs pay dividends every month?

Dividend-paying stocks are a natural option for investors who want to build wealth over time and for retirees who want to live off their investments.

Both of these needs can be met by real estate investment trusts (REITs). There are also a few dozen REITs that pay monthly rather than quarterly dividends, which helps to level out the revenue stream.

Do increasing interest rates affect REITs?

REIT prices tend to climb in tandem with interest rates during periods of economic expansion. The rationale behind this is that as the value of their underlying real estate assets rises, so does the value of REITs. As the economy grows, so does the demand for funding, resulting in higher interest rates. In a declining economy, as the Fed tightens monetary policy, the link becomes negative. This relationship may be observed in the graph below, which shows the relationship between REIT total returns and 10-year Treasury yields from 2000 to 2019.