How Do REITs Perform During Recession?

Since 1991, U.S. REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7% annually in late-cycle periods and have provided considerable downside protection in recessions, highlighting the potential value of conservative, lease-based revenues and high dividend yields in an uncertain environment (see chart below).

In 2021, are REITs a viable investment?

REITs provide investors with a number of advantages that make them an excellent addition to any investment portfolio. Competitive long-term performance, attractive income, liquidity, transparency, and diversification are just a few of them.

Competitive long-term performance

REITs have historically outperformed stocks, especially over lengthy periods of time. REITs, as assessed by the FTSE Nareit Composite Index, have generated a compound annual average total return (stock price appreciation plus dividend income) of 11.4 percent over the last 45 years. That’s only a smidgeon less than the S&P 500’s annual return of 11.5 percent over the same time period.

During various occasions, REITs have outperformed stocks. For example, during the last three, five, ten, fifteen, twenty, twenty-five, twenty-five, thirty, thirty-five, and forty years, they have outperformed small-cap equities as assessed by the Russell 2000 Index. Small-cap companies have only outperformed REITs once in the last year. Meanwhile, during the last 20 years, 25 years, and 30 years, REITs have outperformed large-cap equities (the Russell 1000 Index). Finally, they’ve outperformed bonds over the previous 40 years in every historical period.

Attractive income

The fact that most REITs pay attractive dividends is one of the reasons they have earned strong total returns over time. In mid-2021, for example, the average REIT yielded over 3%, more than double the dividend yield of the S&P 500. Over time, the income mounts up because it accounts for the majority of a REIT’s total return.

REITs pay high dividends because they are required to release 90% of their taxable income to comply with IRS laws. Most REITs, on the other hand, pay out more than 90% of their taxable income since their cash flows, as measured by funds from operations (FFO), are sometimes significantly greater than net income due to REITs’ proclivity for recording significant amounts of depreciation each year.

Many REITs have a strong track record of raising dividends over time. Federal Realty Investment Trust, for example, raised its dividend for the 53rd year in a row in 2021, the longest streak in the REIT business. Several other REITs have a long history of boosting their payouts at least once a year.

Liquidity

Real estate is an illiquid investment, which means that it is difficult to convert into cash. Consider the case of a single-family rental (SFR) property owner who needs to sell to finance a large expense. In that situation, they’d have to put the house on the market, wait for a suitable offer, and hope that nothing goes wrong on the way to closing. Depending on market conditions, it could take months before they can convert the property into cash. A real estate agent charge, as well as other closing costs, would almost certainly be required.

If a REIT investor needed money, on the other hand, they could click into their online brokerage account and sell REIT shares whenever the market was open. A REIT investor would also avoid paying commissions when selling because most brokers do not charge commissions.

Transparency

Many private real estate investments are run with little or no supervision. As a result, real estate sponsors may make judgments that aren’t necessarily in their investors’ best interests.

REITs, on the other hand, are quite transparent. The performance of REITs is monitored by independent directors, analysts, auditors, and the financial media. They must also file financial reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This oversight provides a layer of safety for REIT investors, ensuring that management teams are unable to take advantage of them for personal gain.

Diversification

REITs allow investors to diversify their portfolios throughout the commercial real estate industry, reducing their reliance on stock and bond markets. This diversification reduces an investor’s risk profile while not lowering rewards.

For example, with a Sharp Ratio of 0.27 and a standard deviation of 10, a typically balanced portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds has historically earned a bit higher than 7.8% return over the past 20 years. The Sharp Ratio compares risk to a risk-free investment, such as a US Treasury bond, with a higher number reflecting a better risk-adjusted return. The standard deviation, on the other hand, is a statistical measure of volatility, with a greater figure indicating a riskier investment. For the sake of comparison, a more aggressive strategy of 80 percent stocks and 20 percent bonds has historically produced around 8.3%, but with a Sharp Ratio of 0.17 and a standard deviation of more than 13.

  • With a Sharp Ratio of 0.34 and a standard deviation of around 10.5, a 55 percent stock/35 percent bond/10 percent REIT portfolio has historically provided a yearly return of around 8.3 percent.
  • A 40 percent stock/40 percent bond/20 percent REIT portfolio has historically had an annualized return of slightly more than 8.4%, with a Sharp Ratio of 0.46 and a standard deviation of less than 10.
  • With a Sharp Ratio of 0.49 and a standard deviation of roughly 11.5, a 33.3 percent spread across stocks, bonds, and REITs has yielded an almost 9% average annual rate of return.

As a result, adding REITs to a portfolio should help it produce superior risk-adjusted returns by reducing volatility.

In 2021, how are REITs performing?

The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index had a 41.3 percent total return in 2021, while the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs index had a 43.2 percent total return. As indicated in the figure below, 2017 is the second-best year on record, dating back to the commencement of the index series on Dec. 31, 1971. Mortgage REITs performed well, with returns of 22.5 percent for commercial financing and 11.5 percent for residential financing. In 2021, broader markets also had a solid annual performance, with the Russell 1000 returning 26.5 percent.

Are REITs currently a smart investment?

REITs have long been viewed as low-risk investments with the potential for capital growth and consistent income, making them suitable complements or alternatives to bonds and cash in a portfolio.

That steadiness may appear even more appealing than ever in today’s battered market. The share price may decline, as it has recently, but the income helps to soothe the pain of your portfolio as you wait for the market to recover, as it always does. In that sense, REITs might be a great method to plan ahead for passive income.

Is 2022 a favourable year for real estate investment trusts?

Last year, real estate investment trusts (REITs) were one of the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, with a total return of +46.2 percent (price appreciation plus dividends), compared to +28.7 percent for the index as a whole. In 2022, investors who hold the top REITs may be in line for even more outperformance.

The consistent strength of REIT dividends is the key reason they remain so popular with investors year after year. Remember that REITs must distribute at least 90% of their taxable profits as dividends (in return for some generous tax breaks). The S&P 500 Real Estate sector now has a dividend yield of 2.5 percent, which is higher than the broader index’s 1.4 percent yield. Many of the finest REITs pay out much more money.

Will REITs be successful in 2022?

In January, REITs with a micro cap (-1.65%) and a small cap (-5.47%) outperformed their larger peers. Mid caps (-5.77%) and large caps (-7.20%) underperformed due to significant losses at the start of the year. In January 2021, after a year in which large caps dominated and micro caps trailed far behind, a significant turnaround occurred, with a substantial negative correlation between total return and market cap. On a YTD 2022 total return basis, small cap REITs outperform large caps by 173 basis points.

Do increasing interest rates affect REITs?

REIT prices tend to climb in tandem with interest rates during periods of economic expansion. The rationale behind this is that as the value of their underlying real estate assets rises, so does the value of REITs. As the economy grows, so does the demand for funding, resulting in higher interest rates. In a declining economy, as the Fed tightens monetary policy, the link becomes negative. This relationship may be observed in the graph below, which shows the relationship between REIT total returns and 10-year Treasury yields from 2000 to 2019.

Do REITs pay dividends every month?

Dividend-paying stocks are a natural option for investors who want to build wealth over time and for retirees who want to live off their investments.

Both of these needs can be met by real estate investment trusts (REITs). There are also a few dozen REITs that pay monthly rather than quarterly dividends, which helps to level out the revenue stream.

Is Warren Buffett a REIT investor?

This real estate firm backed by Warren Buffett could be a big long-term winner. STORE Capital (STOR 1.16 percent ) is not just a stock in Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK. A -0.22 percent )(BRK. B -0.29 percent ) stock portfolio, but it is also the only real estate investment trust (REIT) in which Warren Buffett’s conglomerate has invested its own money.

Is it true that REITs are riskier than stocks?

REITs aren’t thought to be particularly dangerous in general, especially when they have diversified holdings and are part of a diversified portfolio. REITs, on the other hand, are subject to interest rate fluctuations and may not be as tax-efficient as other investments. If a REIT is concentrated in a single industry (for example, hotels), and that industry is badly impacted (for example, by a pandemic), losses can be exacerbated.

Which REITs are the safest?

These three REITs are unlikely to appeal to investors with a value inclination. When things are uncertain, though, it is generally wise to stick with the biggest and most powerful names. Within the REIT industry, Realty Income, AvalonBay, and Prologis all fall more generally into that category, as well as within their specific property specialties.

These REITs are likely to have the capital access they need to outperform at the company level in both good and bad times. This capacity should help them expand their leadership positions and back consistent profits over time. That’s the kind of investment that will allow you to sleep comfortably at night, which is probably a cost worth paying for conservative sorts.