Bangladesh, which was once considered one of the world’s poorest countries, recently overtook India in terms of GDP per capita. Indian public are outraged by the news, but the government will not be able to follow Bangladesh’s lead in developing a more prominent low-wage manufacturing export sector. Instead, India requires reforms that will increase the salaries of regular workers, who are the country’s backbone and basis.
The average annual income earned per person in a country is measured as GDP per capita. India’s GDP per capita was $2,104 in 2019. However, by 2020, this figure will have fallen to $1,876, putting the country one spot behind Bangladesh, which has a GDP per capita of $1,887. Unlike India, Bangladesh’s economy has grown steadily over the last three years.
Indian populace are asking that Prime Minister Narendra Modi implement reforms and programs that will increase GDP per capita by raising wages for the country’s working class. Here are four potential approaches for India to increase its GDP per capita.
Ways India’s Government Can Improve GDP
- Farmers’ revenue will rise. In India, agriculture employs 40% of the population, and small-scale farming provides sustenance to many low-income areas. Despite decreasing profitability for farmers, the Indian government has consistently kept agricultural product prices low in favor of consumers. Farmers will be able to sell their products to the highest bidder under the recently introduced 2020 Farm Acts, allowing them to seek bigger wages. Farmers succeed when they are able to support other sectors of the Indian economy through their own purchases. Fertilizer, protective clothing, and tools are all necessities for farmers, especially as their businesses grow. This rise in spending directly results in the creation of new jobs for others.
- Infrastructure spending and investment by the government. The government is in charge of how much money the country spends on public issues each year. Government spending, on the other hand, is required to boost overall GDP per capita. Indian citizens’ salaries have reduced this year, implying lower private consumption. The government will offer individuals with increased convenience and efficiency in their work by investing money on building and repairing roads and bridges, as well as creating construction jobs. Furthermore, by allocating more funds to pay greater salaries, private consumption will rise once again, encouraging increased corporate investment and boosting the import-export market. The government would gain from the economic boost caused by spending a particular amount of money.
- India’s rural people are being urbanized. Economic growth is fueled by urbanization, and because India’s farming population is so large, transferring some of these farmers to cities would allow them to work in manufacturing. Not only would this assist build some of India’s medium-sized cities into more significant urban landscapes, but it would also boost agricultural output by reducing the number of farmers utilizing the same area of land. The government can encourage people to move to cities by offering benefits to rural residents, such as greater infrastructure and urban amenities like transportation and water management. Furthermore, increasing urban populations would resuscitate the housing market and provide banks with greater loan prospects. More development and urbanization will inevitably result in new opportunities for international investment and manufacturing exports.
- Increasing your competitiveness in high-potential industries. By establishing itself as a competitive manufacturer of electronics, chemicals, textiles, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals, India has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion in economic value. In 2018, these sectors accounted for 56% of global trade, but India only contributed 1.5 percent of global exports in these categories. India’s government may make this a reality by increasing urbanization and expanding the manufacturing worker force. The country’s imports currently account for a higher share of world trade than its exports. Increased competitiveness in these areas will not only boost India’s export potential, but also reduce its dependency on imports, lowering the amount of money citizens spend on foreign goods.
While the road to economic recovery is not always as clear as it appears, India’s government has a number of tools at its disposal to help ordinary employees earn more money. The government not only has a motivation, but also an obligation, to improve the living conditions of India’s working class, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. Improving India’s GDP per capita would benefit the country and its people immediately. Greater potential for industrial exports, foreign investment, and urbanization would all be reaped if the country invested in its own working class.
How may India’s GDP be increased?
As a result, India appears to be on track to earn the title of world’s fastest-growing big economy this year and keep it next year.
Keep in mind that, although the Chinese economy grew by 2.3 percent in FY21, the Indian economy shrank by 7.3 percent as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
China’s economic growth slowed more than predicted in the third quarter, owing to a failing property industry that is facing stricter policy measures and an impending energy crisis.
According to The Economist, China’s economic growth is currently being hampered by a “triple shock from energy, property, and the epidemic.”
The difficulties of Evergrande, the insolvent Chinese property giant, are already well-known around the world.
Another stumbling block is the Chinese government’s draconian controls on the country’s tech firms.
India’s growth forecasts for FY22 have been kept at 9.5 percent by the Reserve Bank of India and Standard & Poor’s.
Then there’s the ongoing export boom, which is accompanied by increased tax revenue and lower inflation.
Another good area is the decreasing amount of bad debt burdening the financial system.
Let’s not forget about the soaring corporate earnings, the upbeat industrial production figures, and the ever-increasing number of unicorns.
There are also government initiatives such as Gati Shakti and asset monetisation that are projected to gain traction.
However, significant worries remain about whether high development can be continued in the medium future.
If the forecasts for FY22 and FY23 come true, India will experience the high growth rates of the 2000s once more. However, much work remains to be done if that pace is to be maintained in the future.
What can we do to boost GDP?
- Consumer spending and company investment are generally the driving forces behind economic growth.
- Tax cuts and rebates are used to give money back to consumers and encourage them to spend more.
- Deregulation loosens the laws that firms must follow and is credited with spurring growth, but it can also lead to excessive risk-taking.
- Infrastructure funding is intended to boost productivity by allowing firms to function more effectively and create construction jobs.
How may a country’s GDP be increased?
The external balance of trade is the most essential of all the components that make up a country’s GDP. When the total value of products and services sold by local producers to foreign countries surpasses the total value of foreign goods and services purchased by domestic consumers, a country’s GDP rises. A country is said to have a trade surplus when this happens.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What is the formula for GDP?
Gross domestic product (GDP) equals private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports Minus imports).
GDP is usually computed using international standards by the country’s official statistical agency. GDP is calculated in the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department. The System of National Accounts, compiled in 1993 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the international standard for estimating GDP.
What are GDP’s five components?
(Private) consumption, fixed investment, change in inventories, government purchases (i.e. government consumption), and net exports are the five primary components of GDP. The average growth rate of the US economy has traditionally been between 2.5 and 3.0 percent.
How does India generate revenue?
The Indian government generates revenue by levying a variety of taxes, including personal and corporate income taxes, GST on goods and services, and property tax. It also makes money from non-tax sources like interest on loans it makes to entities like states and railways.
What are the options for lowering GDP?
Customer Spending Trends Any decline in customer spending will result in a drop in GDP. Customers spend more or less depending on their disposable income, inflation, tax rate, and debt load. Wage growth, for example, stimulates consumers to make more expensive purchases, resulting in a rise in real GDP.