Most individuals are aware that inflation raises the cost of their food and depreciates the worth of their money. In reality, inflation impacts every aspect of the economy, and it can eat into your investment returns over time.
What is inflation?
Inflation is the gradual increase in the average cost of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles data to construct the Consumer Price Index, measures it (CPI). The CPI measures the general rise in the price of consumer goods and services by tracking the cost of products such as fuel, food, clothing, and automobiles over time.
The cost of living, as measured by the CPI, increased by 7% in 2021.
1 This translates to a 7% year-over-year increase in prices. This means that a car that costs $20,000 in 2020 will cost $21,400 in 2021.
Inflation is heavily influenced by supply and demand. When demand for a good or service increases, and supply for that same good or service decreases, prices tend to rise. Many factors influence supply and demand on a national and worldwide level, including the cost of commodities and labor, income and goods taxes, and loan availability.
According to Rob Haworth, investment strategy director at U.S. Bank, “we’re currently seeing challenges in the supply chain of various items as a result of pandemic-related economic shutdowns.” This has resulted in pricing imbalances and increased prices. For example, due to a lack of microchips, the supply of new cars has decreased dramatically during the last year. As a result, demand for old cars is increasing. Both new and used car prices have risen as a result of these reasons.
Read a more in-depth study of the present economic environment’s impact on inflation from U.S. Bank investment strategists.
Indicators of rising inflation
There are three factors that can cause inflation, which is commonly referred to as reflation.
- Monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed), including interest rates. The Fed has pledged to maintain interest rates low for the time being. This may encourage low-cost borrowing, resulting in increased economic activity and demand for goods and services.
- Oil prices, in particular, have been rising. Oil demand is intimately linked to economic activity because it is required for the production and transportation of goods. Oil prices have climbed in recent months, owing to increased economic activity and demand, as well as tighter supply. Future oil price rises are anticipated to be moderated as producer supply recovers to meet expanding demand.
- Reduced reliance on imported goods and services is known as regionalization. The pursuit of the lowest-cost manufacturer has been the driving force behind the outsourcing of manufacturing during the last decade. As companies return to the United States, the cost of manufacturing, including commodities and labor, is expected to rise, resulting in inflation.
Future results will be influenced by the economic recovery and rising inflation across asset classes. Investors should think about how it might affect their investment strategies, says Haworth.
How can inflation affect investments?
When inflation rises, assets with fixed, long-term cash flows perform poorly because the purchasing value of those future cash payments decreases over time. Commodities and assets with changeable cash flows, such as property rental income, on the other hand, tend to fare better as inflation rises.
Even if you put your money in a savings account with a low interest rate, inflation can eat away at your savings.
In theory, your earnings should stay up with inflation while you’re working. Inflation reduces your purchasing power when you’re living off your savings, such as in retirement. In order to ensure that you have enough assets to endure throughout your retirement years, you must consider inflation into your retirement funds.
Fixed income instruments, such as bonds, treasuries, and CDs, are typically purchased by investors who want a steady stream of income in the form of interest payments. However, because most fixed income assets have the same interest rate until maturity, the buying power of interest payments decreases as inflation rises. As a result, as inflation rises, bond prices tend to fall.
The fact that most bonds pay fixed interest, or coupon payments, is one explanation. Inflation reduces the present value of a bond’s future fixed cash payments by eroding the buying power of its future (fixed) coupon income. Accelerating inflation is considerably more damaging to longer-term bonds, due to the cumulative effect of decreasing buying power for future cash flows.
Riskier high yield bonds often produce greater earnings, and hence have a larger buffer than their investment grade equivalents when inflation rises, says Haworth.
Stocks have outperformed inflation over the previous 30 years, according to a study conducted by the US Bank Asset Management Group.
2 Revenues and earnings should, in theory, increase at the same rate as inflation. This means your stock’s price should rise in lockstep with consumer and producer goods prices.
In the past 30 years, when inflation has accelerated, U.S. stocks have tended to climb in price, though the association has not been very strong.
Larger corporations have a stronger association with inflation than mid-sized corporations, while mid-sized corporations have a stronger relationship with inflation than smaller corporations. When inflation rose, foreign stocks in developed nations tended to fall in value, while developing market stocks had an even larger negative link.
In somewhat rising inflation conditions, larger U.S. corporate equities may bring some benefit, says Haworth. However, in more robust inflation settings, they are not the most successful investment tool.
According to a study conducted by the US Bank Asset Management Group, real assets such as commodities and real estate have a positive link with inflation.
Commodities have shown to be a dependable approach to hedge against rising inflation in the past. Inflation is calculated by following the prices of goods and services that frequently contain commodities, as well as products that are closely tied to commodities. Oil and other energy-related commodities have a particularly strong link to inflation (see above). When inflation accelerates, industrial and precious metals prices tend to rise as well.
Commodities, on the other hand, have significant disadvantages, argues Haworth. They are more volatile than other asset types, provide no income, and have historically underperformed stocks and bonds over longer periods of time.
As it comes to real estate, when the price of products and services rises, property owners can typically increase rent payments, which can lead to increased profits and investor payouts.
What Does Inflation Mean for Traders?
Inflation is a long-term pattern of rising prices across the economy from one year to the next. The rate of inflation is an essential economic topic because it shows the rate at which an investment’s real worth erodes and the loss of spending or purchasing power over time. Inflation also shows investors how much of a return on their assets they need to maintain their level of life (in percentage terms).
Is inflation beneficial to investors?
Consumers, stocks, and the economy may all suffer as a result of rising inflation. When inflation is high, value stocks perform better, and when inflation is low, growth stocks perform better. When inflation is high, stocks become more volatile.
What is the significance of inflation to investors?
Consumer spending, company investment, and employment rates are all affected by inflation, as are government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. In order to invest successfully, you must first understand inflation. Inflation can diminish the value of your investment returns.
What is the impact of inflation on financial planning?
Because prices are expected to rise in the future, inflation might erode the value of your investments over time. This is particularly obvious when dealing with money. If you keep $10,000 beneath your mattress, it may not be enough to buy as much in 20 years. While you haven’t actually lost money, inflation has eroded your purchasing power, resulting in a lower net worth.
You can earn interest by keeping your money in the bank, which helps to offset the effects of inflation. Banks often pay higher interest rates when inflation is strong. However, your savings may not grow quickly enough to compensate for the inflation loss.
What effects does inflation have?
- Inflation, or the gradual increase in the price of goods and services over time, has a variety of positive and negative consequences.
- Inflation reduces purchasing power, or the amount of something that can be bought with money.
- Because inflation reduces the purchasing power of currency, customers are encouraged to spend and store up on products that depreciate more slowly.
What impact does inflation have on businesses?
Inflation decreases money’s buying power by requiring more money to purchase the same products. People will be worse off if income does not increase at the same rate as inflation. This results in lower consumer spending and decreased sales for businesses.
Inflation favours whom?
- Inflation is defined as an increase in the price of goods and services that results in a decrease in the buying power of money.
- Depending on the conditions, inflation might benefit both borrowers and lenders.
- Prices can be directly affected by the money supply; prices may rise as the money supply rises, assuming no change in economic activity.
- Borrowers gain from inflation because they may repay lenders with money that is worth less than it was when they borrowed it.
- When prices rise as a result of inflation, demand for borrowing rises, resulting in higher interest rates, which benefit lenders.
What effect does inflation have on purchasing power?
Inflation is defined as an increase in the cost of a wide range of consumer products and services across a variety of industries, such as gas, food, and housing. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of your money, requiring you to spend more for the same goods and services. In other words, as inflation rises, your purchasing power declines.
Inflation, on the other hand, isn’t always a terrible thing. Inflation is beneficial to the economy. When inflation is predicted, consumers tend to buy more to prevent price increases in the future. This spending boosts demand, which in turn boosts output. For “maximum employment and price stability” in our economy, the US Federal Reserve prefers inflation to be about 2%. 1
According to the Consumer Price Index’s September 14, 2021 inflation report, inflation in the United States for the 12 months ending August 2021 was 5.3 percent. When you take out food and petrol, it’s 4%, which is still 2% higher than the Federal Reserve’s aim. 2
How Does Inflation Affect the Value of My Money?
Inflation is a significant reason why you shouldn’t keep cash in a shoebox or under your pillow, aside from keeping it safe. Because the money doesn’t yield dividends or interest, it depreciates over time.
The same can be said for a savings account with a low interest rate. Your money could be safe in a paying account. If the inflation rate is 2%, your money will lose 1.5 percent of its purchasing power each year. This is referred to as a savings tax by economist Milton Friedman. This “fee” may, however, be worthwhile to you if you want to keep your money safe while it’s still available.
You can use the same logic to your pay. Assume you were given a 2% raise the previous year. Isn’t it fantastic? Perhaps not. If inflation was 3% that year, you would have received a pay raise, but your economic purchasing power would have decreased.
When it comes to retirement planning, keep inflation in mind. What would the nominal value (worth adjusted for inflation) of $500,000 in 35 years if you’re 30 years old and your current contribution rate is predicted to provide you with $500,000 in today’s currency at retirement? You’ll probably want to boost your contributions to achieve $500,000 in purchasing power when you retire.
Many online retirement calculators allow you to enter different inflation rates to estimate how much you’ll need to save to retire the way you want. To discover the best retirement savings strategy for you and your goals, contact with a financial advisor like those at Summit Retirement & Investment Services*.
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/what-economic-goals-does-federal-reserve-seek-to-achieve-through-monetary-policy.htm, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Consumer Price Index Summary, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
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Not insured by the NCUA/NCUSIF/FDIC, may lose value, and has no financial institution guarantee. It is not a financial institution’s deposit.
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What effect does inflation have on fixed-income investments?
When interest rates rise, inflation can have a negative impact on fixed-income assets. Inflation objectives are usually set by central banks, such as the Federal Reserve of the United States. Officials will raise interest rates if inflation begins to exceed the acceptable level. Existing fixed-income assets’ interest payments are becoming less competitive in comparison to newer higher-rate fixed-income instruments, hence their prices are often falling. In other words, interest rates and fixed-income asset prices have an inverse connection. Inflationary pressures can also wreak havoc on tactics that rely on fixed payments.