How Much Is US GDP 2019?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, state and local government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports all contributed to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter, which was partially offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are deducted from GDP calculations, declined (table 2).

The fourth quarter’s real GDP growth was the same as the third. A drop in imports, an increase in government spending, and a lesser drop in nonresidential investment were countered by a greater drop in private inventory investment and a slowdown in PCE in the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed by 3.6 percent, or $191.7 billion, to $21.73 trillion. GDP climbed by 3.8 percent, or $202.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).

In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.6 percent, compared to 1.5 percent previously. The PCE price index grew 1.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to a 2.1 percent increase overall.

In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $148.7 billion, compared to $162.6 billion in the third quarter. Decelerations in proprietors’ income, personal current transfer receipts, and personal dividend income were somewhat offset by a smaller fall in personal interest income and an acceleration in compensation, resulting in the lower increase (table 8).

In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income climbed by $127.4 billion, or 3.1 percent, compared to $179.5 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income climbed by 1.5 percent, compared to 2.9 percent in the previous quarter.

In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.29 trillion, down from $1.30 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate personal savings as a proportion of disposable personal income was 7.7%, down from 7.8% in the third quarter.

In 2019, real GDP increased by 2.3 percent (from the previous year’s annual level to the current year’s annual level), compared to 2.9 percent in 2018. (table 1).

PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government expenditure, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment all contributed to the increase in real GDP in 2019, which was partially offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment. Imports have risen (table 2).

The slowdown in real GDP in 2019 compared to 2018 was mostly due to slower nonresidential fixed investment and PCE, as well as a drop in exports, which were partially offset by faster state and local government spending. Imports grew at a slower pace in 2019 than in 2018.

GDP in current dollars climbed 4.1 percent, or $848.8 billion, to $21.43 trillion in 2019, compared to 5.4 percent, or $1,060.8 billion, in 2018. (table 1 and table 3).

In 2019, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 1.6 percent, compared to 2.4 percent in 2018. (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 1.4 percent, compared to a 2.1 percent increase in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.6 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.9 percent overall (table 4).

Real GDP increased by 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019. This is compared to a 2.5 percent gain in 2018. The price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.5 percent in 2019, as assessed from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019. This is compared to a 2.2 percent gain in 2018. The PCE price index climbed by 1.5 percent, compared to 1.9 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.9 percent overall (table 6).

A Technical Note that is issued with the press release on BEA’s Web site contains information on the source data and important assumptions utilized for unavailable source data in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. See the “Additional Information” section below for more information on GDP updates.

What was the 2019 GDP figure?

From 1960 to 2020, GDP in the United States averaged 7680.13 USD Billion, with a top of 21433.22 USD Billion in 2019 and a low of 543.30 USD Billion in 1960.

What is the current GDP of the United States?

Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.

The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).

After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.

In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).

In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.

Personal Income

In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.

In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.

In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.

GDP for 2021

In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).

PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).

In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).

In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.

Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.

From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.

What was the GDP of the United States in 2019 and 2020?

In addition to updated fourth-quarter estimates, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2020 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance payments, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are now anticipated to have climbed by $434.5 billion in the third quarter, a $66.5 billion decrease from the previous projection. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 24.1 percent in the third quarter, a 1.7 percentage point decrease from the prior estimate.

In 2020, real GDP fell 3.5 percent (from the 2019 annual level to the 2020 annual level), compared to a 2.2 percent growth in 2019. (table 1).

PCE, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government decreased real GDP in 2020, partially offset by increases in federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports are down (table 2).

A drop in services more than compensated for the decrease in PCE in 2020. (led by food services and accommodations, health care, and recreation services). The drop in exports was due to a drop in both services (driven by travel) and goods (mainly non-automotive capital goods). Private inventory investment fell as a result of broad losses in retail trade (mostly auto dealers) and wholesale trade (mainly durable goods industries). Structures (dominated by mining exploration, shafts, and wells) and equipment (headed by transportation equipment) decreased in nonresidential fixed investment, which was partly offset by an increase in intellectual property products (more than accounted for by software). The drop in state and local government spending corresponded to a drop in consumer spending (led by compensation).

The increase in federal spending was due to an increase in non-defense consumer spending (led by an increase in purchases of intermediate services that supported the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government). Increases in upgrades, as well as brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, accounted for the majority of the increase in residential fixed investment.

In 2020, current-dollar GDP fell 2.3 percent, or $498.3 billion, to $20.93 trillion, compared to a 4.0 percent, or $821.3 billion, growth in 2019. (tables 1 and 3).

In 2020, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 1.2 percent, compared to 1.6 percent in 2019. (table 4). In 2020, the PCE price index climbed 1.2 percent, compared to 1.5 percent in 2019. The PCE price index grew 1.4 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.7 percent overall.

Real GDP fell by 2.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, according to data (table 6). In comparison, in 2019 there was a 2.3 percent gain.

The price index for gross domestic purchases grew 1.3 percent in 2020, as assessed from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. In comparison, in 2019 there was a 1.4 percent gain. The PCE price index climbed by 1.2 percent, compared to a 1.5 percent increase in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 1.4 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.6 percent overall.

What will be the GDP in 2021?

In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.

In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).

In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).

In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.

Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.

From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.

Which country has the highest GDP in 2021?

The United States and China would rank first and second in both methodology’ gdp rankings by 2021. The nominal gap between the US and China is narrowing, since China’s gdp growth rate of 8.02 percent in 2021 is higher than the US’s 5.97 percent. In nominal terms, the United States will be $6 trillion ahead of China in 2021. On a per-person basis, China surpassed the United States in 2017 and is now ahead by $4 trillion, with the gap widening. On a per capita basis, China will continue to be the world’s greatest economy for the next few decades, since the US, which is rated second, grows slowly and India, which is placed third, lags far behind.

In terms of nominal GDP, the top ten would remain same. Iran has surpassed the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia has surpassed Turkey, and Switzerland has surpassed Switzerland on the top 20 list. South Africa’s economic ranking would rise eight places in the top 50, while Egypt would drop four places.

There would be no change in the top 10 list in the ppp ranking. Taiwan overtaking Australia is another change in the top 20. Ireland will move up three places in the top 50.

In 2021, all of the economies in the top 50 will grow at a positive rate. With a 14.04 percent growth rate, Ireland is the fastest-growing economy, followed by Chile (11.00 percent ). Thailand has the slowest growth rate, at 0.96 percent, followed by the UAE (2.24 percent) and Japan (2.36 percent ).

In nominal terms, the United States (1,5) appears on both lists of the top 10 GDP and GDP per capita. In terms of GDP and GDP per capita, Germany (4,17), Canada (9,15), Australia (13,9), the Netherlands (18,12), and Switzerland (20,3) are among the top twenty countries. In both rankings, the United States (2,8) is in the top 10, while Germany (5,18) and Taiwan (18,15) are in the top twenty.

How much debt does America have?

“Parties in power have built up the deficit through increased spending and poorer tax collection, regardless of political affiliation,” says Brian Rehling, head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

While it’s easy to suggest that a specific president or president’s administration led the federal deficit and national debt to move in a given direction, it’s crucial to remember that only Congress has the power to pass legislation that has the greatest impact on both figures.

Here’s how Congress responded during four major presidential administrations, and how their decisions affected the deficit and national debt.

Franklin D. Roosevelt

FDR served as the country’s last four-term president, guiding the country through a series of economic downturns. His administration spanned the Great Depression, and his flagship New Deal economic recovery plan aided America’s rebound from its financial abyss. The expense of World War II, however, contributed nearly $186 billion to the national debt between 1942 and 1945, making it the greatest substantial rise to the national debt. During FDR’s presidency, Congress added $236 billion to the national debt, a rise of 1,048 percent.

Ronald Reagan

Congress passed two major tax cuts during Reagan’s two administrations, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Reform Act of 1986, both of which reduced government income. Between 1982 and 1990, Congress passed Acts that reduced revenue as a percentage of GDP by 1.7 percent, resulting in a revenue shortfall that contributed to the national debt rising 261 percent ($1.26 trillion) during his presidency, from $924.6 billion to $2.19 trillion.

Barack Obama

The Obama administration oversaw both the Great Recession and the recovery that followed the collapse of the mortgage market throughout his two years in office. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2009, which pumped $831 billion into the economy and helped many Americans avoid foreclosure, was passed by Congress in 2009. When passed by a strong bipartisan vote, congressional tax cuts added extra $858 billion to the national debt. During Obama’s two terms in office, Congress increased the national deficit by 74% and added $8.6 trillion to the national debt.

Donald Trump

Congress approved the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, slashing corporate and personal income tax rates, during his single term. The cuts, which were seen as a bonanza for the wealthiest Americans and corporations at the time of their passage, were expected by the Congressional Budget Office to increase the government deficit by $1.9 trillion at the time of their passing.

The federal deficit climbed from $665 billion in 2017 to $3.13 trillion in 2020, despite the Treasury Secretary’s prediction that the tax cuts would reduce it. Some of the rise was due to tax cuts, but the majority of the increase was due to successive Covid relief programs.

The public’s share of the federal debt has risen from $14.6 trillion in 2017 to more than $21 trillion in 2020. The national debt is made up of public debt and intragovernmental debt (amounts owed to federal retirement trust funds such as the Social Security Trust Fund). It refers to the amount of money owed by the United States to external debtors such as American banks and investors, corporations, people, state and municipal governments, the Federal Reserve, and foreign governments and international investors such as Japan and China. The money is borrowed in order to keep the United States running. Treasury banknotes, notes, and bonds are included. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), US savings bonds, and state and local government series securities are among the other holders of public debt.

“The national debt is growing at a rate it hasn’t seen in decades,” says James Cassel, chairman and co-founder of Cassel Salpeter, an investment bank. “This is the outcome of the basic principle of spending more money than you earn.” Cassel also points out that while both major political parties have spoken seriously about reducing the national debt at times, discussions and strategies have stopped.

When both sides pose discussing raising the debt ceiling each year, the national debt is more typically utilized as a bargaining chip. The United States would default on its debt obligations if the debt ceiling was not raised. As a result, Congress always votes to raise the debt ceiling (the maximum amount of money the US government may borrow), but only after parties have reached an agreement on other legislation.

What was the debt of the United States in 2019?

The Treasury Department said this week that the United States’ total national debt had topped $30 trillion for the first time in history, an amount equal to roughly 130 percent of the country’s annual economic production, or GDP. The staggering sum places the United States among the world’s most indebted countries.

The federal debt has been huge and rising for decades, but the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, which included massive cash infusions into the U.S. economy, increased its expansion significantly.

Prior to the pandemic, the national debt was $22.7 trillion at the end of 2019. It had climbed by another $5 trillion to $27.7 trillion a year later. Since then, the country has added almost $2 trillion to its debt.

While the amount of $30 trillion has no meaning in and of itself, it may serve to draw attention to what some regard as a big worry for the country’s future health.

“Reaching $30 trillion in debt is a stark reminder of how high our debt is and how much we’ve been borrowing,” said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

In 2021, how much did the US economy grow?

As the economy continues to recover from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, US GDP growth surged in the fourth quarter, expanding at a 6.9% annual rate, up from the preceding four quarters’ rate of growth. Increased inventory investment and increased service consumption accounted for all of GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Real GDP increased by 5.5 percent in the first four quarters of 2021, the fastest rate since 1984.

In the fourth quarter, the economy was most likely producing at or near its full potential. The economy was still trending 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Even if the pandemic had not occurred, the economy is unlikely to have continued to develop at the same rate in 2020 and 2021 as it had in previous years. Prior to the pandemic, forecasters projected a slowdown since the economy was close to or at maximum employment, making it improbable that job gains would continue at the same rate. Furthermore, because of higher fatalities and limited immigration, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected labor force, and low investment, which resulted in a smaller-than-expected capital stock, the pandemic itself has certainly diminished potential.

Even while the economy was near to where it would have been had the epidemic and the government’s response not occurred, the economy’s makeup was drastically changed. On the supply side, employment remained low (because to low labor force participation), but this was compensated for by longer average hours and improved productivity. Final expenditures were biased towards commodities and residential investment, rather than services, business fixed investment, inventories, and net exports, on the demand side. In the fourth quarter, the demand side began to take on a more regular composition, but it remained highly skewed.

What does the US debt look like in 2020?

The total national debt due by the federal government of the United States to Treasury security holders is known as the US national debt. The national debt is the face value of all outstanding Treasury securities issued by the Treasury and other federal agencies at any one moment. The terms “national deficit” and “national surplus” normally relate to the federal government’s annual budget balance, not the total amount of debt owed. In a deficit year, the national debt rises because the government must borrow money to cover the gap, whereas in a surplus year, the debt falls because more money is received than spent, allowing the government to reduce the debt by purchasing Treasury securities. Government debt rises as a result of government spending and falls as a result of tax or other revenue, both of which fluctuate throughout the fiscal year. The gross national debt is made up of two parts:

  • “Public debt” refers to Treasury securities held by people, corporations, the Federal Reserve, and foreign, state, and local governments, as well as those held by the federal government.
  • Non-marketable Treasury securities held in accounts of federal government programs, such as the Social Security Trust Fund, are referred to as “debt held by government accounts” or “intragovernmental debt.” Debt held by government accounts is the result of various government programs’ cumulative surpluses, including interest earnings, being invested in Treasury securities.

Historically, the federal government’s debt as a percentage of GDP has risen during wars and recessions, then fallen afterward. The debt-to-GDP ratio may fall as a consequence of a government surplus or as a result of GDP growth and inflation. For example, public debt as a percentage of GDP peaked just after WWII (113 percent of GDP in 1945), then declined steadily over the next 35 years. Aging demographics and rising healthcare expenditures have raised concerns about the federal government’s economic policies’ long-term viability in recent decades. The United States debt ceiling limits the total amount of money Treasury can borrow.

The public held $20.83 trillion in federal debt, while intragovernmental holdings were $5.88 trillion, for a total national debt of $26.70 trillion as of August 31, 2020. Debt held by the public was around 99.3% of GDP at the end of 2020, with foreigners owning approximately 37% of this public debt. The United States has the world’s greatest external debt, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 43rd out of 207 countries and territories in 2017. Foreign countries held $7.04 trillion worth of US Treasury securities in June 2020, up from $6.63 trillion in June 2019. According to a 2018 assessment by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), public debt would reach approximately 100% of GDP by 2028, possibly more if current policies are prolonged past their expiration dates. For the first time in history, the total US federal government debt exceeded $30 trillion in February 2022.

The federal government spent trillions on virus help and economic relief during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the CBO, the budget deficit in fiscal year 2020 will be $3.3 trillion, or 16 percent of GDP, which is more than quadruple the deficit in fiscal year 2019 and the highest as a percentage of GDP since 1945.

Is the American economy expanding?

Indeed, the year is starting with little signs of progress, as the late-year spread of omicron, along with the fading tailwind of fiscal stimulus, has experts across Wall Street lowering their GDP projections.

When you add in a Federal Reserve that has shifted from its most accommodative policy in history to hawkish inflation-fighters, the picture changes dramatically. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator currently shows a 0.1 percent increase in first-quarter GDP.

“The economy is slowing and downshifting,” said Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis’ head economist for the Americas and former chief economist for President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council. “It isn’t a recession now, but it will be if the Fed becomes overly aggressive.”

GDP climbed by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, capping a year in which the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States increased by 5.7 percent on an annualized basis. That followed a 3.4 percent drop in 2020, the steepest but shortest recession in US history, caused by a pandemic.