How Often Is GDP Data Released?

The gross domestic product (GDP) is a quarterly economic measure that shows how much production a country produces. In the two months leading up to the release of the final number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States produces two estimates of quarterly GDP, known as advance and preliminary estimates:

  • The advance estimate of GDP is released in the first month after each quarter and is based on estimates of economic activity for a portion of the quarter (often two of the three months).
  • The preliminary estimate is released the month after the advance estimate, and it accounts for modifications to economic data from the months used to produce the advance estimate, as well as new data.

We looked at the pattern of payroll employment data adjustments in a recent Economic Synopses essay. We discovered that the sign of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revision to payroll employment is more likely to be positive (revised up) during expansions and negative (revised down) during recessions. We suggested that this presented a problem for policymakers who relied on the timely publication of economic indicators to make proper policy decisions.

We wondered if the GDP releases had the same asymmetrythat is, if there was a systematic discrepancy between the final number and, say, the preliminary release. The difference between the final and preliminary releases is depicted in the graph below, with recessions highlighted in gray.

While there are no evident patterns, at the start of recessions, there are usually huge negative revisions from preliminary to final releases.

What is the reason for the disparity between the preliminary and final GDP estimates? The differences could be due to the time period they’re measuring or the methods they’re using to collect data.

How frequently is GDP data released?

Released on a monthly basis. GDP is available in three versions, each issued once a month: Advance, Second Release, and Final. In the economic calendar, both the advance and the second release are labeled as preliminary.

Is GDP released every month?

US The Gross Domestic Product of the United States, adjusted for inflation, is used to calculate monthly Real GDP. The entire value of products produced and services provided in the United States is known as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases official GDP data on a quarterly basis, Macroeconomic Advisors uses calculation and aggregation methods that are equivalent to the official GDP to provide a more up-to-date monthly figure.

Monthly Real GDP in the United States is currently at 19.78 trillion dollars, down from 19.79 trillion dollars last month but up from 19.11 trillion dollars a year ago.

This is down -0.01% from the previous month and up 3.52 percent from a year ago.

What was today’s GDP?

Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.

The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).

After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.

In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).

In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.

Personal Income

In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.

In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.

In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.

GDP for 2021

In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).

PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale trade led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).

In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).

In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.

Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.

From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.

Where can I get monthly GDP figures?

Data on Gross Domestic Product may be accessed in the National Accounts dataset site and the International Financial Statistics dataset portal’s Data Tables tab.

What is the annual US GDP?

From 1960 to 2020, GDP in the United States averaged 7680.13 USD Billion, with a top of 21433.22 USD Billion in 2019 and a low of 543.30 USD Billion in 1960.

How long would it take for a 2.5 percent-growing economy to double in size?

For instance, if an economy grows at 1% per year, it will take 70 / 1 = 70 years for the economy to double in size. If a country’s economy grows at 2% each year, it will take 70 / 2 = 35 years for it to double in size.

When do economic indicators come out?

The Federal Reserve publishes the “Current Economic Conditions” report, sometimes known as the Beige Book, eight times a year. Anecdotal information on current economic conditions in each Federal Reserve Bank’s District is gathered through reports from Bank and Branch directors, as well as interviews with significant business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. This information is summarized in the Beige Book by District and Sector.

The United States Census Bureau has released a study that aims to provide wide and timely assessments of combined changes in domestic retail, wholesale, and manufacturing activity. The data for the report comes from three different surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey will have been issued by the time this report is published, leaving only the Monthly Retail Trade Survey as the only new piece of data in the report.

The US Census Bureau publishes estimates of total new construction value for the following categories each month: residential, private nonresidential, farm, regulated investor-owned utilities, and public. Housing starts and sales data from the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction are used to estimate the cost of new single-family houses being built each month. Private nonresidential construction is based on data from McGraw-Hill Construction and a months-long “Construction Progress Reporting Survey.”

On the final Tuesday of each month, at 10:00 a.m., the Consumer Board releases its index.

At 10:00 a.m. on the second and fourth Fridays of each month, the University of Michigan distributes a preliminary survey and a final survey.

The Conference Board’s Indices are based on a monthly survey of 5,000 households in the United States.

Five questions about the state of the economy are included in the survey:

The Conference Board publishes three indices: I Consumer Confidence, which is based on replies to the five questions above; (ii) Present Situation Index, which is based on responses to questions 1 and 3; and (iii) Expectations Index, which is based on questions 2, 4, and 5.

The Consumer Sentiment Index at the University of Michigan is based on telephone household interviews.

The data, which was released by the Federal Reserve, shows the amount of outstanding consumer debt.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is compiled by the US Department of Labor, is a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households over time and serves as an inflation indicator.

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey, released by the United States Bureau of Census, is currently the only survey that offers broad-based monthly statistical data on the economic circumstances in the domestic manufacturing sector. Its purpose is to assess existing industrial activities as well as forecast future production obligations. The value of shipments represents the value of items delivered by domestic producers throughout the month. Estimates of new orders are used as a predictor of future production commitments, and they indicate the current shipments (sales) value of new orders received during the month, minus cancellations.

The Current Population Survey (household survey) and the Current Employment Statistics Survey are two surveys compiled by the US Department of Labor (establishment survey). The household survey collects data on labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The establishment survey collects data on nonfarm payroll workers’ employment, hours, and incomes. The report serves as a general gauge of economic activity and inflation.

The following are the tentative dates for the Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2022:

The FOMC meets eight times a year on a regular basis. The Committee examines economic and financial conditions, decides the appropriate monetary policy stance, and assesses the risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustained economic growth at these sessions. The Federal Funds Rate is set by the FOMC at each meeting.

The minutes of each Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released around three weeks after the meeting.

The minutes frequently contain hints about the FOMC’s future rate policy.

GDP is the market value of goods and services produced in the United States by labor and property.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce publishes GDP quarterly.

The National Association of Realtors publishes housing sales data that is based on transaction closings in a given month and indicates the total amount of sales for a year assuming a steady rate of sales.

Single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops are all available for purchase.

The Census Bureau and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development collaborated to release this report.

The report includes information on the number of new single-family houses sold, the number of new single-family houses for sale, and the median and average sales prices of new homes sold.

Manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities are all covered by the Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production, as well as associated capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates.

The production index calculates real output as a percentage of real output in a base year, which is presently 2002. The capacity index, which is a forecast of long-term potential output, is also given as a percentage of 2002 output. Private trade organisations and government entities provided data for the index.

At 10:00 a.m. on the first business day of each month, the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is released.

At 10:00 a.m. on the third business day of each month, the ISM Services Report On Business is released.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a professional group for supply management, publishes two reports monthly: the Manufacturing ISM and the Services ISM.

The statistics are based on monthly polls of about 400 businesses to assess whether the economy is growing or shrinking.

Changes in production, new orders, new export orders, imports, employment, stocks, prices, lead-times, and the timeliness of supplier deliveries in their organizations are among the items considered in the survey when comparing the current month to the previous month.

The United States Department of Labor provides data on initial jobless claims, which counts the number of people who have applied for state unemployment benefits.

The Philadelphia Fed usually releases its monthly report at 10:00 a.m. on the third Thursday of the month. For the current month, the Chicago PMI is usually released on the final working day of the month.

Reports on economic activity in their respective regions are released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago.

The reports are regarded as good forerunners of the remainder of the United States’ economic conditions.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce issued data on changes in average personal income and expenditures.

Individuals’ personal income is the total amount of money they earn from all sources. Consumer purchases of durable and nondurable products, as well as services, are included in personal outlays. The Implicit Price Deflator, also known as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and is included in this report.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) is a collection of indexes that track the average change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time.

PPIs are used to track price changes from the seller’s perspective.

The US Department of Labor has produced data that shows the link between real output and the labor time (cost) required to produce it.

In collaboration with the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the US Census Bureau News released this report. The data shows the monthly changes in housing starts, building permits issued, and dwellings finished.

The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services report is published by the United States Census Bureau to give national estimates of annual and monthly sales for establishments classified in the retail trade and food services industries.

The data for wholesale inventories comes from a survey done by the US Census Bureau to give national estimates of monthly sales, end-of-month inventories, and inventory-to-sales ratios by type of business for wholesale enterprises in the US.

Other agencies use the data for economic study, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which uses the figures as an input to estimate gross domestic product sales and inventories.

What will be the GDP in 2021?

In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.

In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).

In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).

In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.

Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.

From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.

How much debt does America have?

“Parties in power have built up the deficit through increased spending and poorer tax collection, regardless of political affiliation,” says Brian Rehling, head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

While it’s easy to suggest that a specific president or president’s administration led the federal deficit and national debt to move in a given direction, it’s crucial to remember that only Congress has the power to pass legislation that has the greatest impact on both figures.

Here’s how Congress responded during four major presidential administrations, and how their decisions affected the deficit and national debt.

Franklin D. Roosevelt

FDR served as the country’s last four-term president, guiding the country through a series of economic downturns. His administration spanned the Great Depression, and his flagship New Deal economic recovery plan aided America’s rebound from its financial abyss. The expense of World War II, however, contributed nearly $186 billion to the national debt between 1942 and 1945, making it the greatest substantial rise to the national debt. During FDR’s presidency, Congress added $236 billion to the national debt, a rise of 1,048 percent.

Ronald Reagan

Congress passed two major tax cuts during Reagan’s two administrations, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Reform Act of 1986, both of which reduced government income. Between 1982 and 1990, Congress passed Acts that reduced revenue as a percentage of GDP by 1.7 percent, resulting in a revenue shortfall that contributed to the national debt rising 261 percent ($1.26 trillion) during his presidency, from $924.6 billion to $2.19 trillion.

Barack Obama

The Obama administration oversaw both the Great Recession and the recovery that followed the collapse of the mortgage market throughout his two years in office. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2009, which pumped $831 billion into the economy and helped many Americans avoid foreclosure, was passed by Congress in 2009. When passed by a strong bipartisan vote, congressional tax cuts added extra $858 billion to the national debt. During Obama’s two terms in office, Congress increased the national deficit by 74% and added $8.6 trillion to the national debt.

Donald Trump

Congress approved the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, slashing corporate and personal income tax rates, during his single term. The cuts, which were seen as a bonanza for the wealthiest Americans and corporations at the time of their passage, were expected by the Congressional Budget Office to increase the government deficit by $1.9 trillion at the time of their passing.

The federal deficit climbed from $665 billion in 2017 to $3.13 trillion in 2020, despite the Treasury Secretary’s prediction that the tax cuts would reduce it. Some of the rise was due to tax cuts, but the majority of the increase was due to successive Covid relief programs.

The public’s share of the federal debt has risen from $14.6 trillion in 2017 to more than $21 trillion in 2020. The national debt is made up of public debt and intragovernmental debt (amounts owed to federal retirement trust funds such as the Social Security Trust Fund). It refers to the amount of money owed by the United States to external debtors such as American banks and investors, corporations, people, state and municipal governments, the Federal Reserve, and foreign governments and international investors such as Japan and China. The money is borrowed in order to keep the United States running. Treasury banknotes, notes, and bonds are included. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), US savings bonds, and state and local government series securities are among the other holders of public debt.

“The national debt is growing at a rate it hasn’t seen in decades,” says James Cassel, chairman and co-founder of Cassel Salpeter, an investment bank. “This is the outcome of the basic principle of spending more money than you earn.” Cassel also points out that while both major political parties have spoken seriously about reducing the national debt at times, discussions and strategies have stopped.

When both sides pose discussing raising the debt ceiling each year, the national debt is more typically utilized as a bargaining chip. The United States would default on its debt obligations if the debt ceiling was not raised. As a result, Congress always votes to raise the debt ceiling (the maximum amount of money the US government may borrow), but only after parties have reached an agreement on other legislation.

In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?

What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world: