Each year and quarter, the BEA calculates the country’s GDP. Every month, however, new GDP figures are released. Why? Because the BEA estimates GDP three times per quarter. The advance estimate is an early look based on the greatest information available at the time, and it comes roughly a month after the quarter ends. The second and third estimates each include additional source data that was not accessible the month before, resulting in increased accuracy.
More to know
The gross domestic product of the United States is in the trillions of dollars. The term “GDP” is frequently used to refer to a percentage figure. This is the rate at which real GDP changed from the prior quarter or year. To compare different periods, “real” or “chained” GDP data have been adjusted to exclude the impacts of inflation over time.
Estimates of “current-dollar” or “nominal” GDP are based on market prices during the measurement period.
Seasonal adjustments are made to GDP data to exclude the influence of yearly trends like winter weather, holidays, and industry output schedules. This guarantees that the remaining fluctuations in GDP better represent genuine economic activity patterns. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also publishes GDP numbers that are not seasonally adjusted.
Unless otherwise noted, quarterly GDP data are given at annual rates for simplicity of comparison.
GDP by State
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates the value of products and services produced in each state and the District of Columbia on a quarterly and annual basis. The data includes breakdowns of the contributions of various industries to each of these economies.
GDP by County, Metro, and Other Areas
Annual GDP statistics are given for counties, metropolitan areas, and a few other statistical areas. They include the contributions of 34 industries to the local economy. In December 2019, the BEA released its first official GDP statistics for the nation’s 3,113 counties and county equivalents.
GDP for U.S. Territories
Annual GDP figures, including industry contributions, are issued for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the United States Virgin Islands.
GDP by Industry
These figures, which are published quarterly and annually, quantify each industry’s performance and contributions to the general economy, often known as “value added.” The data also includes gross output, employee compensation, gross operating surplus, and taxes for each industry.
Is GDP calculated on a yearly basis?
Real GDP is an inflation-adjusted measure of an economy’s output in a given year, with prices held constant from year to year to separate the influence of inflation or deflation from the overall trend in output.
Is GDP calculated on a yearly or monthly basis?
GDP growth rate in percentage terms at market prices based on constant local currency. The figures are in constant 2010 US dollars. GDP is calculated as the total gross value added by all resident producers in the economy, plus any product taxes, minus any subsidies not included in the product value.
Is GDP released every month?
US The Gross Domestic Product of the United States, adjusted for inflation, is used to calculate monthly Real GDP. The entire value of products produced and services provided in the United States is known as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases official GDP data on a quarterly basis, Macroeconomic Advisors uses calculation and aggregation methods that are equivalent to the official GDP to provide a more up-to-date monthly figure.
Monthly Real GDP in the United States is currently at 19.78 trillion dollars, down from 19.79 trillion dollars last month but up from 19.11 trillion dollars a year ago.
This is down -0.01% from the previous month and up 3.52 percent from a year ago.
How frequently is GDP assessed?
Defined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The sum is usually given in dollars, with the growth rate expressed as a percentage change from one period to the next (where the time period is typically quarterly or yearly). The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States publishes this number on a quarterly basis.
What are the methods for calculating GDP?
GDP is calculated by adding up the quantities of all commodities and services produced, multiplying them by their prices, and then adding them all up. GDP can be calculated using either the sum of what is purchased or the sum of what is generated in the economy. Consumption, investment, government, exports, and imports are the several types of demand.
What is the formula for calculating GDP?
Gross domestic product (GDP) equals private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports Minus imports).
GDP is usually computed using international standards by the country’s official statistical agency. GDP is calculated in the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department. The System of National Accounts, compiled in 1993 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the international standard for estimating GDP.
Why is GDP a flawed metric?
In reality, “GDP counts everything but that which makes life meaningful,” as Senator Robert F. Kennedy memorably stated. Health, education, equality of opportunity, the state of the environment, and many other measures of quality of life are not included in the number. It does not even assess critical features of the economy, such as its long-term viability, or whether it is on the verge of collapsing. What we measure, however, is important because it directs our actions. The military’s emphasis on “body counts,” or the weekly calculation of the number of enemy soldiers killed, gave Americans a hint of this causal link during the Vietnam War. The US military’s reliance on this morbid statistic led them to conduct operations with no other goal than to increase the body count. The focus on corpse numbers, like a drunk seeking for his keys under a lamppost (because that’s where the light is), blinded us to the greater picture: the massacre was enticing more Vietnamese citizens to join the Viet Cong than American forces were killing.
Now, a different corpse count, COVID-19, is proving to be an alarmingly accurate indicator of society performance. There isn’t much of a link between it and GDP. With a GDP of more than $20 trillion in 2019, the United States is the world’s richest country, implying that we have a highly efficient economic engine, a race vehicle that can outperform any other. However, the United States has had almost 600,000 deaths, but Vietnam, with a GDP of $262 billion (and only 4% of the United States’ GDP per capita), has had less than 500 to far. This less fortunate country has easily defeated us in the fight to save lives.
In fact, the American economy resembles a car whose owner saved money by removing the spare tire, which worked fine until he got a flat. And what I call “GDP thinking”the mistaken belief that increasing GDP will improve well-being on its owngot us into this mess. In the near term, an economy that uses its resources more efficiently has a greater GDP in that quarter or year. At a microeconomic level, attempting to maximize that macroeconomic measure translates to each business decreasing costs in order to obtain the maximum possible short-term profits. However, such a myopic emphasis inevitably jeopardizes the economy’s and society’s long-term performance.
The health-care industry in the United States, for example, took pleasure in efficiently using hospital beds: no bed was left empty. As a result, when SARS-CoV-2 arrived in the United States, there were only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people, significantly fewer than in other sophisticated countries, and the system was unable to cope with the rapid influx of patients. In the short run, doing without paid sick leave in meat-packing facilities improved earnings, which raised GDP. Workers, on the other hand, couldn’t afford to stay at home when they were sick, so they went to work and spread the sickness. Similarly, because China could produce protective masks at a lower cost than the US, importing them enhanced economic efficiency and GDP. However, when the epidemic struck and China required considerably more masks than usual, hospital professionals in the United States were unable to meet the demand. To summarize, the constant pursuit of short-term GDP maximization harmed health care, increased financial and physical insecurity, and weakened economic sustainability and resilience, making Americans more exposed to shocks than inhabitants of other countries.
In the 2000s, the shallowness of GDP thinking had already been apparent. Following the success of the United States in raising GDP in previous decades, European economists encouraged their leaders to adopt American-style economic strategies. However, as symptoms of trouble in the US banking system grew in 2007, France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy learned that any leader who was solely focused on increasing GDP at the expense of other indices of quality of life risked losing the public’s trust. He asked me to chair an international commission on measuring economic performance and social progress in January 2008. How can countries improve their metrics, according to a panel of experts? Sarkozy reasoned that determining what made life valuable was a necessary first step toward improving it.
Our first report, provocatively titled Mismeasuring Our Lives: Why GDP Doesn’t Add Up, was published in 2009, just after the global financial crisis highlighted the need to reassess economic orthodoxy’s key premises. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a think tank that serves 38 advanced countries, decided to follow up with an expert panel after it received such excellent feedback. We confirmed and enlarged our original judgment after six years of dialogue and deliberation: GDP should be dethroned. Instead, each country should choose a “dashboard”a collection of criteria that will guide it toward the future that its citizens desire. The dashboard would include measures for health, sustainability, and any other values that the people of a nation aspired to, as well as inequality, insecurity, and other ills that they intended to reduce, in addition to GDP as a measure of market activity (and no more).
These publications have aided in the formation of a global movement toward improved social and economic indicators. The OECD has adopted the method in its Better Life Initiative, which recommends 11 indicators and gives individuals a way to assess them in relation to other countries to create an index that measures their performance on the issues that matter to them. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), both long-time proponents of GDP thinking, are now paying more attention to the environment, inequality, and the economy’s long-term viability.
This method has even been adopted into the policy-making frameworks of a few countries. In 2019, New Zealand, for example, incorporated “well-being” measures into the country’s budgeting process. “Success is about making New Zealand both a terrific location to make a livelihood and a fantastic place to create a life,” said Grant Robertson, the country’s finance minister. This focus on happiness may have contributed to the country’s victory over COVID-19, which appears to have been contained to around 3,000 cases and 26 deaths in a population of over five million people.
Why is GDP not a reliable economic indicator?
- It ignores the underground economy: Because GDP is based on official data, it ignores the size of the underground sector, which might be large in some countries.
- In a globally open economy, it is geographically limited: Gross National Product (GNP), which quantifies the production of a nation’s population and businesses regardless of their location, is seen as a better measure of output than GDP in some situations. For example, GDP does not account for earnings made in a country by international enterprises and remitted to foreign investors. This has the potential to exaggerate a country’s actual economic production. In 2012, Ireland’s GDP was $210.3 billion and its GNP was $164.6 billion, with the difference of $45.7 billion (or 21.7 percent of GDP) owing mostly to profit repatriation by foreign corporations based in Ireland.
- It prioritizes economic output above economic well-being: GDP growth alone is insufficient to assess a country’s development or citizens’ well-being. For example, a country’s GDP growth may be high, but this may come at a large cost to society in terms of environmental effect and income imbalance.
How does the BEA calculate GDP each quarter?
GDP estimates are created on a quarterly timetable that includes three “current” estimates”advance,” “preliminary,” and “final”as well as estimates prepared as part of annual and comprehensive NIPA revisions. About a month after the conclusion of the quarter, an advance estimate is generated.
How much did GDP grow last year?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.