One of them is the energy industry, which comprises oil and gas firms. These companies outperformed inflation 71% of the time and had an annual real return of 9.0% on average.
What is the greatest way to protect yourself against rising inflation?
You might not think of a house as a smart method to protect yourself against inflation, but if you buy it with a mortgage, it can be a great way to do so. With a long-term mortgage, you may lock in affordable financing for up to three decades at near-historically low rates.
A fixed-rate mortgage allows you to keep the majority of your housing costs in one payment. Property taxes will increase, and other costs will climb, but your monthly housing payment will remain the same. If you’re renting, that’s definitely not the case.
And, of course, owning a home entails the possibility of its value rising over time. Price appreciation is possible if additional money enters the market.
Stocks
Stocks are a solid long-term inflation hedge, even though they may be battered by nervous investors in the near term as their concerns grow. However, not all stocks are equivalent in terms of inflation protection. You’ll want to seek for organizations with pricing power, which means they can raise prices on their clients as their own costs grow.
And if a company’s profits increase over time, so should its stock price. While inflation fears may affect the stock market, the top companies are able to weather the storm thanks to their superior economics.
Gold
When inflation rises or interest rates are extremely low, gold has traditionally been a safe-haven asset for investors. When real interest rates that is, the reported rate of interest minus the inflation rate go below zero, gold tends to do well. During difficult economic times, investors often look to gold as a store of value, and it has served this purpose for a long time.
One effective way to invest in gold is to acquire it through an exchange-traded fund (ETF). This way, you won’t have to own and protect the gold yourself. Plus, ETFs provide you the option of owning actual gold or equities of gold miners, which can provide a bigger return if gold prices rise.
What effect do oil prices have on inflation?
Oil prices have a substantial impact on the consumer price index, however the link between oil and inflation is not as strong as it was in the 1970s. The St Louis Fed estimates a 0.27 link between oil price movements and inflation. In other words, a sustained 10% increase in oil prices may result in a 2.7 percent increase in the consumer price index. (Is oil a driver of inflation in 2018?)
The link between oil prices and producer prices is stronger. The producer price index, which is more closely connected to input costs like oil prices, estimates the average selling price from domestic producers.
What causes the link between oil prices and inflation?
Transportation is the most common usage of oil (66 percent ). As a result, if oil prices rise, all items that are transported will face greater transportation expenses.
Furthermore, if producer prices rise as a result of rising oil prices, this might have knock-on effects, such as encouraging workers to demand higher pay. Inflation expectations may rise as oil prices rise.
s Inflation
Oil prices climbed from $3 in early 1973 to $30 by the end of 1979 in the 1970s. This was an era of high inflation around the world, with double-digit inflation in the UK, the US, and Europe far greater than the rest of the world. Inflation was particularly remarkable in that it had been substantially controlled in the postwar decades (with exceptions of very brief spikes in the 1950s)
You may argue that rising oil prices were not the only source of inflation in the 1970s. Furthermore, wage growth was substantial (thanks in part to powerful labor unions), so when prices began to rise as a result of higher oil prices, the response of rising wages made inflation more persistent. However, while this is true, oil prices were the primary cause of inflation in the first place.
In the months leading up to the first Gulf War in 1992. From $16 in June 1990 to $36 in October 1990, oil prices more than doubled. However, CPI inflation did not accelerate throughout this time. With little inflationary pressure, the oil price shock was absorbed.
oil price shock
Oil prices surged from $54 to $144 in less than 18 months from January 2007 to June 2008. It did induce inflation, but only by 5%, which is negligible when compared to the magnitude of the prolonged rise in oil prices. Interestingly, during the economic crunch of 2008, CPI inflation dipped into negative territory for the first time in decades as oil prices plummeted.
Oil prices have risen from (briefly) negative prices of WTI to above $80 in November 2021 since rebounding from the Covid-induced economic crisis. It resulted in 6.2 percent inflation in the United States (October 2021) Again, the huge turnaround in oil prices has resulted in a large increase in inflation, though it is still lagging. Other supply-side shocks, such as a shortage of ships and containers, can also be blamed for late-2021 inflation.
Relationship between oil price changes and consumer/producer price changes
The producer price index and consumer price index are plotted against the global price of Brent Crude oil in this graph.
- The association between changes in oil prices and changes in producer pricing is fairly significant. As one could imagine,
- Oil prices and consumer prices have a significantly weaker link, with just a minor association between changing oil prices and consumer prices.
Why isn’t the link between oil prices and consumer prices stronger?
- Services account for roughly 66 percent of total economic output and consumption (retail, insurance, hospitality). Oil prices play a minor effect in this industry. If oil prices rise, haircut prices are unlikely to rise as well.
- Economies are becoming less reliant on oil. When oil was inexpensive in the early 1970s, there was no reason not to drive a big ‘gas guzzler’ that consumed a lot of gas (petrol).
- Engines have become more fuel-efficient since the 1970s, and alternative energy sources have grown in popularity.
- Some of the cost increases can be absorbed by businesses. If a company’s costs rise 10% owing to rising oil prices, that doesn’t mean it will pass those costs on to customers in the form of 10% higher prices. In a competitive market, businesses may agree to a smaller profit margin in order to avoid upsetting customers by raising prices. Firms are also sluggish to lower prices when oil prices fall – they want to reclaim their previous profit margins.
- Forward contracts are contracts that are made in the future. Oil isn’t merely bought when a company needs it. They can protect themselves against price volatility by purchasing future contracts.
- When oil prices were negative in 2021, it was owing to the costs of storing oil (because to the oversupply, corporations were hesitant to accept more deliveries due to storage costs). Consumers, on the other hand, pay a much greater premium.
- Inflation is heavily influenced by the price of oil. Higher inflation will result from a major increase in oil costs. Apart from oil, there are numerous other elements that influence inflation, including wage growth, confidence, economic spare capacity, and growth rate. As a result, even if oil prices rise, other variables may overwhelm them.
Do high oil prices trigger economic downturns?
Oil prices are skyrocketing, owing in part to the conflict in Ukraine and allegations that the US and EU are considering banning Russian oil imports as a punishment.
Oil prices reached their highest level since 2008 at one point over the weekend. Gas in the United States now costs more than $4 per gallon.
Large oil shocks have frequently preceded recessions in the past. Consider the year 1973, when the United States backed Israel in the Arab-Israeli War. According to Michael Klein of Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Business, Arab countries in OPEC declared an oil embargo against the United States (and other countries), causing oil prices to skyrocket.
“As oil prices rose, it became much more expensive to buy a variety of goods, much more expensive to make things, and much more expensive to heat your home or fill your car’s petrol tank,” he explained.
A recession resulted as a result of this. “We’ve moved away from our early 1970s degree of oil dependence,” Klein said, “but it’s still a pretty important issue in the economy.”
“It’s a component in a lot of what we do.” And that’s where the big spillover impact happens,” said Joann Weiner, a George Washington University economics professor.
In this time of tremendous inflation, where should I place my money?
“While cash isn’t a growth asset, it will typically stay up with inflation in nominal terms if inflation is accompanied by rising short-term interest rates,” she continues.
CFP and founder of Dare to Dream Financial Planning Anna N’Jie-Konte agrees. With the epidemic demonstrating how volatile the economy can be, N’Jie-Konte advises maintaining some money in a high-yield savings account, money market account, or CD at all times.
“Having too much wealth is an underappreciated risk to one’s financial well-being,” she adds. N’Jie-Konte advises single-income households to lay up six to nine months of cash, and two-income households to set aside six months of cash.
Lassus recommends that you keep your short-term CDs until we have a better idea of what longer-term inflation might look like.
How will you protect yourself from inflation in 2022?
During the epidemic, there was a surge in demand for products and labor, resulting in the fastest rate of consumer price and wage inflation since the early 1990s. As the pandemic passes and spending moves toward services rather than products, we believe inflation will reduce due to greater labor supply. In the end, it should not jeopardize our base case scenario, which predicts a significantly more vibrant cycle in the 2020s than we experienced in the 2010s.
However, both prices and salaries are expected to rise at a pretty rapid pace. We believe there are three ways for investors to navigate this climate.
Look to real estate for inflation protection
Because leases are regularly reset higher, real estate investors often profit from a natural inflation hedge. Furthermore, we believe the residential and industrial real estate sectors will benefit from strong structural tailwinds. Following the global financial crisis, chronic underbuilding (compared to trend) resulted in a housing shortage in the United States. Workers’ labor is in high demand, and earnings are rising, ensuring that housing remains cheap even as home prices rise. Migration enabled by remote work is also offering opportunities.
The global trend toward e-commerce will demand additional warehouses, storage, and logistics in the industrial sector. The need for further investment is highlighted by problems in the global supply chain that became apparent in 2021. We’re also seeing an increase in demand for life science research facilities. While we prefer to invest in real estate through private markets, publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) have outperformed other equities sectors during periods of rising inflation. In a nutshell, real estate is our favourite option to invest in a higher-inflation climate.
Rely on equities, especially cyclical ones, to drive capital appreciation.
While economists dispute the complexities of inflation, the fundamental principles underlying the current phase appear to be clear: Strong demand and economic growth are driving inflation. Because corporate earnings are also good in inflationary settings, equities tend to do well. We anticipate that stocks of companies that are more closely linked to economic activity and interest rates will likely outperform. Bank stock valuations, for example, have generally been linked to inflation forecasts. In cyclical industries like industrials and commodities, companies with pricing power could see strong revenue increases. Stocks that do well when growth and inflation are rare (think the digital economy) may, on the other hand, be at more risk. In our opinion, you should maintain a fair balance between the two categories, and expect a hard environment for fixed income portfolios as interest rates climb.
Avoid excess cash, and consider borrowing.
In our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, 80 percent of the assets we consider have a higher predicted return than inflation. Investing surplus cash in a portfolio that meets your goals and time horizon is the simplest approach to protect purchasing power. Borrowing may be prudent in the current situation. Interest rates remain low, particularly when compared to inflation. A mortgage is a straightforward approach to profit from a healthy home market. If the Federal Reserve reacts to rising inflation by boosting interest rates, borrowing expenses may become less appealing.
Key takeaways
Higher inflation is likely to persist through 2022, but it does not have to be a reason for alarm. Investors can create a portfolio that considers inflation risks and attempts to manage them. While excess cash appears unappealing, relying on equities rather than fixed income and focusing on cyclical sectors and real estate could prove to be profitable strategies. Meanwhile, while policy interest rates are still low, borrowing and settling existing liabilities may be prudent.
In the context of your individual circumstances and aspirations, your J.P. Morgan team can provide you with more information on how the present environment is influencing risk and return possibilities.
What holds up well against inflation?
- In the past, tangible assets such as real estate and commodities were seen to be inflation hedges.
- Certain sector stocks, inflation-indexed bonds, and securitized debt are examples of specialty securities that can keep a portfolio’s buying power.
- Direct and indirect investments in inflation-sensitive investments are available in a variety of ways.
Do oil prices rise as a result of inflation?
The Most Important Takeaways Higher oil prices cause inflation both directly and indirectly by raising the cost of inputs. During the 1970s, there was a significant link between inflation and oil prices.