Businesses that prosper during a downturn
- Groceries. Grocery retailers, unsurprisingly, do the best business in a depressed economy.
Which industry is immune to the downturn?
A recession-proof business can be extremely profitable for people in both good and bad times. Whatever the state of the economy or the stock market, certain company concepts, such as those listed below, have a good possibility of succeeding despite the rest of the financial doom and gloom.
Many well-known or historically successful enterprises were founded during economic downturns. The Walt Disney Company was created in the late 1920s, at the commencement of the Great Depression, and the Hewlett and Packard electronics company was founded in the late 1930s, during the second recession.
Rising interest rates and shifting GDP pose far less of a threat to the finest recession-proof enterprises mentioned below than they do to most other businesses, with many of them having the ability to do even more business than usual.
Food and Beverage Business
Because everyone still needs food and drinks to live, the food and beverage business is one of the most recession-proof industries. Because it is not a luxury that can be put aside in difficult times, enterprises in this area can thrive even in a downturn.
In a downturn, how do you make money?
During a recession, you might be tempted to sell all of your investments, but experts advise against doing so. When the rest of the economy is fragile, there are usually a few sectors that continue to grow and provide investors with consistent returns.
Consider investing in the healthcare, utilities, and consumer goods sectors if you wish to protect yourself in part with equities during a recession. Regardless of the health of the economy, people will continue to spend money on medical care, household items, electricity, and food. As a result, during busts, these stocks tend to fare well (and underperform during booms).
What should I buy before the financial crisis?
Having a strong quantity of food storage is one of the best strategies to protect your household from economic volatility. In Venezuela, prices doubled every 19 days on average. It doesn’t take long for a loaf of bread to become unattainable at that pace of inflation. According to a BBC News report,
“Venezuelans are starving. Eight out of ten people polled in the country’s annual living conditions survey (Encovi 2017) stated they were eating less because they didn’t have enough food at home. Six out of ten people claimed they went to bed hungry because they couldn’t afford to eat.”
Shelf Stable Everyday Foods
When you are unable to purchase at the grocery store as you regularly do, having a supply of short-term shelf stable goods that you use every day will help reduce the impact. This is referred to as short-term food storage because, while these items are shelf-stable, they will not last as long as long-term staples. To successfully protect against hunger, you must have both.
Canned foods, boxed mixtures, prepared entrees, cold cereal, ketchup, and other similar things are suitable for short-term food preservation. Depending on the food, packaging, and storage circumstances, these foods will last anywhere from 1 to 7 years. Here’s where you can learn more about putting together a short-term supply of everyday meals.
Food takes up a lot of room, and finding a place to store it all while yet allowing for proper organization and rotation can be difficult. Check out some of our friends’ suggestions here.
Investing in food storage is a fantastic idea. Consider the case of hyperinflation in Venezuela, where goods prices have doubled every 19 days on average. That means that a case of six #10 cans of rolled oats purchased today for $24 would cost $12,582,912 in a year…amazing, huh? Above all, you’d have that case of rolled oats on hand to feed your family when food is scarce or costs are exorbitant.
Basic Non-Food Staples
Stock up on toilet paper, feminine hygiene products, shampoo, soaps, contact solution, and other items that you use on a daily basis. What kinds of non-food goods do you buy on a regular basis? This article on personal sanitation may provide you with some ideas for products to include on your shopping list.
Medication and First Aid Supplies
Do you have a chronic medical condition that requires you to take prescription medication? You might want to discuss your options with your doctor to see if you can come up with a plan to keep a little extra cash on hand. Most insurance policies will renew after 25 days. Use the 5-day buffer to your advantage and refill as soon as you’re eligible to build up a backup supply. Your doctor may also be ready to provide you with samples to aid in the development of your supply.
What over-the-counter drugs do you take on a regular basis? Make a back-up supply of over-the-counter pain pills, allergy drugs, cold and flu cures, or whatever other medications you think your family might need. It’s also a good idea to keep a supply of vitamin supplements on hand.
Prepare to treat minor injuries without the assistance of medical personnel. Maintain a well-stocked first-aid kit with all of the necessary equipment.
Make a point of prioritizing your health. Venezuelans are suffering significantly as a result of a lack of medical treatment. Exercise on a regular basis and eat a healthy diet. Get enough rest, fresh air, and sunlight. Keep up with your medical and dental appointments, as well as the other activities that promote health and resilience.
In a downturn, where should I place my money?
Federal bond funds, municipal bond funds, taxable corporate funds, money market funds, dividend funds, utilities mutual funds, large-cap funds, and hedge funds are among the options to examine.
Who profited from the financial crisis of 2008?
Warren Buffett declared in an op-ed piece in the New York Times in October 2008 that he was buying American stocks during the equity downturn brought on by the credit crisis. “Be scared when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” he says, explaining why he buys when there is blood on the streets.
During the credit crisis, Mr. Buffett was particularly adept. His purchases included $5 billion in perpetual preferred shares in Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which earned him a 10% interest rate and contained warrants to buy more Goldman shares. Goldman also had the option of repurchasing the securities at a 10% premium, which it recently revealed. He did the same with General Electric (NYSE:GE), purchasing $3 billion in perpetual preferred stock with a 10% interest rate and a three-year redemption option at a 10% premium. He also bought billions of dollars in convertible preferred stock in Swiss Re and Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW), which all needed financing to get through the credit crisis. As a result, he has amassed billions of dollars while guiding these and other American businesses through a challenging moment. (Learn how he moved from selling soft drinks to acquiring businesses and amassing billions of dollars.) Warren Buffett: The Road to Riches is a good place to start.)
What happens to high-end items during a downturn?
Regardless of the state of their underlying economies, all corporations seek for growth and excellent earnings. Some, however, fail owing to a lack of understanding of actual customer loyalty, product/service positioning, and/or the contagion that can spread from elsewhere. During a recession, three-quarters of businesses see a drop in sales, but just 14% see an increase in revenue and profitability.
Stocks that are recession-proof are classified as such by institutional investors “Defensive”: enterprises that have been shown to be impervious to economic shocks, with the proviso that their performance during good times is not as stellar as others. In the year leading up to September 2019, Goldman Sachs’ defensive stock index returned 11 percent, while the S&P 500 returned only 1.9 percent.
To be recession-proof, however, a firm must either provide something that is a high enough priority that even the most frugal consumer will buy, or conversely, see demand surge owing to the difficult economic conditions.
The graph below shows the growth of a number of industries throughout the 2008/09 crisis, and it’s evident that a number of them performed well due to their recession-proof properties.
Here are some instances of industries that have shown to be recession-proof. Pay special attention to the behavior that surrounds the product/service, rather than the product/service itself “protection.”
Household Staples: Sustenance
The term “staples” is important since it refers to the basic, everyday products that we require for nourishment and personal hygiene. So, instead of caviar, choose bread and soap over false tan.
To maintain their weight, an adult man and woman need 2,500 and 2,000 calories per day, respectively. This does not change during a recession, and businesses that offer the basic necessities of life will remain unaffected. To overcome a TAM ceiling of population * calories, food firms have decreased the nutritional content of their products over time in order to induce more snacking.
When you look at a consumer goods company like Proctor & Gamble or Unilever, you’ll see that their portfolio is full of household staples and brands that cater to a variety of budgets. Such a strategy assures that they are malleable enough to deal with demand spikes, and that their performance during a recession can fluctuate between consumer preferences while still maintaining overall sales levels.
The same approach applies to businesses that provide personal or household hygiene goods, as well as pet supply stores.
Heritage Luxury Brands: Respected Quality
Despite their high cost, luxury items are remarkably resistant to recessions. A recession can actually lead to more consumers choosing to heritage companies with generations of expertise and brand cache, as their tastes become more sophisticated. The intangible promise of quality, distinction, and long-term worth accounts for a significant portion of the price of a luxury item. For example, luxury timepieces are marketed as heirlooms to be passed down down the generations.
Inflation does not always coincide with recessions, but when it does, demand for luxury items soars since the item retains its worth and does not devalue. Inflation is a problem in Argentina, and businesses are spending every dollar on high-quality inventory to build up large runways as an inflation hedge. This is because they are purchasing products that will not depreciate in value.
Vices: Addictive Pleasures
The easiest approach to define what binds this section together in terms of an economic concept is to put addictive activities together. Because addiction is inelastic, alcohol, nicotine, and gambling are pleasures that can withstand economic hardships. Sugar and caffeine could potentially be included in this category. There’s also the more abstract notion that these hobbies might serve as “escapes,” which can provide much-needed relief to stressed customers during difficult times. Alcohol sales increased by 9% during the US recession of 2008.
Addiction is a difficult topic, but many corporations try to instill euphoria in their customers about their products in the hopes of inducing inflexibility. Consumer intelligence and behavior monitoring have been pushed up to highly complex levels by Internet enterprises. As a way to create addictive loyalty, consider items like social media, the infinite scroll, and in-app purchases in games.
Healthcare: Necessity
Businesses that focus on providing healthcare are generally stable enterprises that are unaffected by economic downturns. This is owing to the fact that health is a mortal problem that must be taken care of and will take precedence over all other expenditures.
This industry has numerous sub-sections, one of which is resident care. The aging demographics of the wealthy baby-boomer group approaching retirement suggest that healthcare spending will remain stable in the future.
Budget Travel: Value
For the past 45 years, Southwest Airlines has been profitable. Low-cost airlines had the effect of fundamentally disrupting the notion of air travel, extending its market reach to previously unreachable lower-income groups; the cost of a trip has decreased by 50% in real terms in the 50 years leading up to 2013.
Budget travel, which includes long-distance bus travel, staycations, and public transportation, is a dependable industry. During upturns, it performs well because to its necessity (those relatives can’t come to see you) and value, which breeds loyalty and greater frequency from frugal flyers. Its popularity grows during downturns as a result of its cost advantages.
Budget airlines’ operational management is critical to their success since they operate on razor-thin profit margins and hence need to have effective and streamlined business procedures. Ryanair, for example, has a fleet of 419 planes, all but one of which are Boeing 737-800s. By using only one plane model, it is possible to keep parts, repairs, maintenance personnel, and all other necessary operations as simple as possible.
Utilities: Protection
Infrastructure that transports goods into our lives is not the most glamorous of industries, but it is one that can withstand any storm due to its necessity. During a recession, the needs for gas, water, electricity, and telephone service do not vary. These industries also benefit from their ties to government regulation, which can either give subsidies or hinder outside competition, providing a cloak of recession-proof protection.
Is cash useful during a downturn?
In today’s economy, where stock market circumstances are unpredictably volatile, knowledgeable investors are looking for more reliable assets to avoid losing money. While our economy appears to be improving, recent events have had a significant impact on the stock market. History has demonstrated the importance of having assets that can withstand a downturn. When it came to how to protect wealth amid a slump, the Great Depression was one of the finest teachers the world has ever seen.
Gold And Cash
During a market meltdown or downturn, gold and cash are two of the most crucial items to have on hand. Gold’s value has typically remained stable or only increased during depressions. If the market is falling and you want to protect your investment portfolio, it’s in your best interests to invest in and safely store gold or cash in a secure private vault.
As a general rule, your emergency fund should be at least three months’ worth of living expenditures.
While banks may appear to be a secure place to store money, safety deposit boxes are neither insured nor legally accountable if something goes stolen.
Furthermore, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will not always be able to cover your money in banks.
Investing in physical assets such as gold, silver, coins, and other hard assets is preferable.
Real Estate
During a slump, real estate is also a smart strategy to secure wealth. Another investment possibility that often retains its value and appreciates is debt-free real estate ownership. Of course, the location is a big consideration. Near colleges is an area of interest for wise investors because these locations tend to weather depressions better. However, the long-term viability of this wealth-protection strategy is contingent on the soundness of the local economy.
Domestic Bonds, Treasury Bills, & Notes
During a depression, mutual funds and equities are considered high-risk investments. Treasury bonds, banknotes, and notes, on the other hand, are more secure assets. The United States government issues these things. When they mature, they pay the buyer a fixed rate of interest.
You can choose short-term bills that mature in as little as a few days depending on your demands.
If you’re searching for a longer-term investment, there are notes available that mature in as little as two years.
Foreign Bonds
Many experts in the past would have suggested foreign bonds as a depression-resistant investment option. Recent events have demonstrated that this is not always a safe bet. Pandemics and other market instability around the world have rendered this a risky investment, as all countries’ economies are affected.