What Drives Long Run Inflation?

What variables influence the rate of inflation? The intersection of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply determines the price level; anything that modifies either of these two curves impacts the price level and consequently the inflation rate. In the near run, we’ve seen how these movements can produce various inflationunemployment pairings. Two factors will determine the rate of inflation in the long run: the rate of money expansion and the rate of economic growth.

In the long run, economists agree that the pace of money growth is one driver of an economy’s inflation rate. The exchange equation MV = PY provides the intellectual foundation for such conclusion. In other words, the money supply multiplied by the velocity of money equals the price level multiplied by the real GDP value.

We learnt in the chapter on monetary policy that given the equation of exchange, which holds by definition, the sum of the percentage rates of change in M and V will be nearly equal to the sum of the percentage rates of change in P and Y. That is to say,

What are the three primary reasons for inflation?

Demand-pull inflation, cost-push inflation, and built-in inflation are the three basic sources of inflation. Demand-pull inflation occurs when there are insufficient items or services to meet demand, leading prices to rise.

On the other side, cost-push inflation happens when the cost of producing goods and services rises, causing businesses to raise their prices.

Finally, workers want greater pay to keep up with increased living costs, which leads to built-in inflation, often known as a “wage-price spiral.” As a result, businesses raise their prices to cover rising wage expenses, resulting in a self-reinforcing cycle of wage and price increases.

What is the long-term impact of inflation?

  • Inflation, or the gradual increase in the price of goods and services over time, has a variety of positive and negative consequences.
  • Inflation reduces purchasing power, or the amount of something that can be bought with money.
  • Because inflation reduces the purchasing power of currency, customers are encouraged to spend and store up on products that depreciate more slowly.

What are the factors that cause inflation?

  • Inflation is the rate at which the price of goods and services in a given economy rises.
  • Inflation occurs when prices rise as manufacturing expenses, such as raw materials and wages, rise.
  • Inflation can result from an increase in demand for products and services, as people are ready to pay more for them.
  • Some businesses benefit from inflation if they are able to charge higher prices for their products as a result of increased demand.

What factors have an impact on inflation?

Inflation is caused by increases in government spending, hoarding, tax cuts, and price increases in international markets. Prices rise as a result of these variables. Inflation is also caused by rising demand, which leads to higher prices.

What are the three purposes of money?

Money is something that everyone uses on a daily basis. We earn it and spend it, but we rarely give it any thought. Money, according to economists, is any item that is widely accepted as final payment for goods and services. Cowry shells in Africa, giant stone wheels on the Pacific island of Yap, and strings of beads called wampum used by Native Americans and early American immigrants are just a few instances of money through the ages. What are the similarities and differences between these several types of money? The three functions of money are shared by them:

  • First and foremost, money is a store of value. If I work today and earn $25, I can save it instead of spending it because it will be worth the same tomorrow, next week, or even next year. Holding money is, in fact, a more successful manner of storing value than holding other valuables like maize, which might decay. Money is not a perfect store of value, despite being an efficient one. Over time, inflation erodes the purchasing power of money.
  • Second, money is a monetary unit. Money can be thought of as a yardstick, or the tool we use to determine the value of anything in an economic transaction. When purchasing a new computer, the price may be expressed in terms of t-shirts, bicycles, or corn. So, for example, your new computer might cost you 100 to 150 bushels of corn at today’s prices, but you’d be better off if the price was fixed in terms of money because money is a universal measure of value.
  • Money is a means of exchange, third. This indicates that money is generally accepted as a payment method. I know that when I go to the grocery shop, the cashier will accept my money payment. In actuality, the United States’ paper money bears the following statement: “This note is legal tender for all public and private debts.” This indicates that the United States government defends my right to pay in dollars.

Consider living without money to realize the benefits that money offers to an economy. Assume I’m a musician, a bassoonist in an orchestra, with a car in need of repair. I’d have to barter for car repairs in a world without money. In actuality, I’d have to uncover a want coincidencethe improbable scenario in which two people each have something the other wants at the perfect time and location to make a trade. In other words, by 9 a.m. tomorrow, I’d need to find a mechanic ready to trade car repairs for a private bassoon concert so I could drive to my next orchestra rehearsal. This type of interaction would take a tremendous amount of time and effort in a market where people had highly specialized skills; in fact, it would be almost impossible. Money lowers the transaction’s cost because, whereas finding a technician who would exchange car repairs for bassoon performances may be tough, finding one who would exchange car repairs for money is not. In reality, if I didn’t have money, I’d have to locate manufacturers willing to trade their goods and services for bassoon performances. In a money-based system, I can offer my services as a bassoonist in an orchestra to those ready to pay money for symphony concerts. The money I earn can then be used to purchase a range of goods and services.

Economists compare the development of money to other historic discoveries such as the wheel and the inclined plane, but how did money evolve? Early types of money were frequently commodity money, which had worth because it was made of a valuable substance. Gold and silver coins are examples of commodity money. Gold coins were important not just because they could be exchanged for other commodities or services, but also because gold was valuable and had other applications. Commodity money gives way to representational money, the next step.

A certificate or token that can be exchanged for the underlying commodity is known as representative money. Instead of carrying gold commodity money, the gold could have been held in a bank vault, and you could have carried a paper certificate that representedor was “backed”the gold in the vault. The certificate might be redeemed for gold at any time, it was understood. In addition, carrying the certificate was easier and safer than carrying the gold. People began to trust paper certificates as much as gold certificates over time. Representative money gave way to fiat money, which is still utilized in modern economies.

Money that has no intrinsic worth and does not reflect an asset in a vault is known as fiat money. Its value stems from the government of the issuing country declaring it “legal tender,” or a recognized form of payment. In this situation, we accept the money’s value because the government claims it does, and other people believe it is valuable enough to accept it as payment. For instance, I accept US dollars as payment because I know I’ll be able to exchange them for goods and services at local businesses. I’m okay with it since I know other people will accept it. The currency of the United States is fiat money. It is not a valuable commodity in and of itself, nor does it represent gold or any other precious commodity housed in a vault. It is valuable because it is legal tender and people trust it as a means of exchange.

Many types of money have existed throughout history, but some have performed better than others due to attributes that make them more valuable. Durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability are all properties of money. Let’s look at two examples of different types of money:

  • Durability. A cow is fairly durable, but a long trip to market puts the cow at risk of disease or death, lowering its value. Twenty-dollar bills are fairly long-lasting and may be easily replaced if they become damaged. Even better, a long journey to the store does not jeopardize the bill’s health or worth.
  • Portability. While transporting the cow to the store is challenging, putting the money in my wallet is simple.
  • Divisibility. A twenty-dollar bill can be traded for a ten, a five, four ones, and four quarters. A cow, on the other hand, is difficult to divide.
  • Uniformity. Cows exist in a variety of sizes and shapes, and each one has a varied value; cows aren’t a particularly standard sort of currency. The size, shape, and value of twenty-dollar bills are all the same; they are highly uniform.
  • There is a limited availability. Money must have a finite supply in order to sustain its worth. While the amount of cows is somewhat restricted, you can bet that if they were used as money, ranchers would do everything they could to increase the supply of cows, lowering their value. The Federal Reserve regulates the supply of 20-dollar bills, and thus the value of money in general, to ensure that money retains its worth over time.
  • Acceptability. Despite the intrinsic value of cows, some people may refuse to take cattle as payment. People, on the other hand, are more than eager to receive $20 bills. In fact, the US government defends your freedom to pay your bills with US dollars.

At this point, it appears “udderly” evident that, based on the properties of money, US $20 bills are a considerably better kind of money than cattle.

To recapitulate, money has existed in numerous forms throughout history, but it has always served three purposes: as a store of value, a unit of account, and a medium of exchange. Modern economies rely on fiat money, which is neither a commodity nor is it represented or “backed” by one. Depending on the features of money, even kinds of money that perform the same functions may be more or less beneficial.

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Inflation is defined as a rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over time. When there is too much money chasing too few products, inflation occurs. After the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low to try to boost the economy. More people borrowed money and spent it on products and services as a result of this. Prices will rise when there is a greater demand for goods and services than what is available, as businesses try to earn a profit. Increases in the cost of manufacturing, such as rising fuel prices or labor, can also produce inflation.

There are various reasons why inflation may occur in 2022. The first reason is that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have risen dramatically. As a result, petrol and other transportation costs have increased. Furthermore, in order to stimulate the economy, the Fed has kept interest rates low. As a result, more people are borrowing and spending money, contributing to inflation. Finally, wages have been increasing in recent years, putting upward pressure on pricing.

Who is the most affected by inflation?

Inflation is defined as a steady increase in the price level. Inflation means that money loses its purchasing power and can buy fewer products than before.

  • Inflation will assist people with huge debts, making it simpler to repay their debts as prices rise.

Losers from inflation

Savers. Historically, savers have lost money due to inflation. When prices rise, money loses its worth, and savings lose their true value. People who had saved their entire lives, for example, could have the value of their savings wiped out during periods of hyperinflation since their savings became effectively useless at higher prices.

Inflation and Savings

This graph depicts a US Dollar’s purchasing power. The worth of a dollar decreases during periods of increased inflation, such as 1945-46 and the mid-1970s. Between 1940 and 1982, the value of one dollar plummeted by 85 percent, from 700 to 100.

  • If a saver can earn an interest rate higher than the rate of inflation, they will be protected against inflation. If, for example, inflation is 5% and banks offer a 7% interest rate, those who save in a bank will nevertheless see a real increase in the value of their funds.

If we have both high inflation and low interest rates, savers are far more likely to lose money. In the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis, for example, inflation soared to 5% (owing to cost-push reasons), while interest rates were slashed to 0.5 percent. As a result, savers lost money at this time.

Workers with fixed-wage contracts are another group that could be harmed by inflation. Assume that workers’ wages are frozen and that inflation is 5%. It means their salaries will buy 5% less at the end of the year than they did at the beginning.

CPI inflation was higher than nominal wage increases from 2008 to 2014, resulting in a real wage drop.

Despite the fact that inflation was modest (by UK historical norms), many workers saw their real pay decline.

  • Workers in non-unionized jobs may be particularly harmed by inflation since they have less negotiating leverage to seek higher nominal salaries to keep up with growing inflation.
  • Those who are close to poverty will be harmed the most during this era of negative real wages. Higher-income people will be able to absorb a drop in real wages. Even a small increase in pricing might make purchasing products and services more challenging. Food banks were used more frequently in the UK from 2009 to 2017.
  • Inflation in the UK was over 20% in the 1970s, yet salaries climbed to keep up with growing inflation, thus workers continued to see real wage increases. In fact, in the 1970s, growing salaries were a source of inflation.

Inflationary pressures may prompt the government or central bank to raise interest rates. A higher borrowing rate will result as a result of this. As a result, homeowners with variable mortgage rates may notice considerable increases in their monthly payments.

The UK underwent an economic boom in the late 1980s, with high growth but close to 10% inflation; as a result of the overheating economy, the government hiked interest rates. This resulted in a sharp increase in mortgage rates, which was generally unanticipated. Many homeowners were unable to afford increasing mortgage payments and hence defaulted on their obligations.

Indirectly, rising inflation in the 1980s increased mortgage payments, causing many people to lose their homes.

  • Higher inflation, on the other hand, does not always imply higher interest rates. There was cost-push inflation following the 2008 recession, but the Bank of England did not raise interest rates (they felt inflation would be temporary). As a result, mortgage holders witnessed lower variable rates and lower mortgage payments as a percentage of income.

Inflation that is both high and fluctuating generates anxiety for consumers, banks, and businesses. There is a reluctance to invest, which could result in poorer economic growth and fewer job opportunities. As a result, increased inflation is linked to a decline in economic prospects over time.

If UK inflation is higher than that of our competitors, UK goods would become less competitive, and exporters will see a drop in demand and find it difficult to sell their products.

Winners from inflation

Inflationary pressures might make it easier to repay outstanding debt. Businesses will be able to raise consumer prices and utilize the additional cash to pay off debts.

  • However, if a bank borrowed money from a bank at a variable mortgage rate. If inflation rises and the bank raises interest rates, the cost of debt repayments will climb.

Inflation can make it easier for the government to pay off its debt in real terms (public debt as a percent of GDP)

This is especially true if inflation exceeds expectations. Because markets predicted low inflation in the 1960s, the government was able to sell government bonds at cheap interest rates. Inflation was higher than projected in the 1970s and higher than the yield on a government bond. As a result, bondholders experienced a decrease in the real value of their bonds, while the government saw a reduction in the real value of its debt.

In the 1970s, unexpected inflation (due to an oil price shock) aided in the reduction of government debt burdens in a number of countries, including the United States.

The nominal value of government debt increased between 1945 and 1991, although inflation and economic growth caused the national debt to shrink as a percentage of GDP.

Those with savings may notice a quick drop in the real worth of their savings during a period of hyperinflation. Those who own actual assets, on the other hand, are usually safe. Land, factories, and machines, for example, will keep their value.

During instances of hyperinflation, demand for assets such as gold and silver often increases. Because gold cannot be printed, it cannot be subjected to the same inflationary forces as paper money.

However, it is important to remember that purchasing gold during a period of inflation does not ensure an increase in real value. This is due to the fact that the price of gold is susceptible to speculative pressures. The price of gold, for example, peaked in 1980 and then plummeted.

Holding gold, on the other hand, is a method to secure genuine wealth in a way that money cannot.

Bank profit margins tend to expand during periods of negative real interest rates. Lending rates are greater than saving rates, with base rates near zero and very low savings rates.

Anecdotal evidence

Germany’s inflation rate reached astronomical levels between 1922 and 1924, making it a good illustration of high inflation.

Middle-class workers who had put a lifetime’s earnings into their pension fund discovered that it was useless in 1924. One middle-class clerk cashed his retirement fund and used money to buy a cup of coffee after working for 40 years.

Fear, uncertainty, and bewilderment arose as a result of the hyperinflation. People reacted by attempting to purchase anything physical such as buttons or cloth that might carry more worth than money.

However, not everyone was affected in the same way. Farmers fared handsomely as food prices continued to increase. Due to inflation, which reduced the real worth of debt, businesses that had borrowed huge sums realized that their debts had practically vanished. These companies could take over companies that had gone out of business due to inflationary costs.

Inflation this high can cause enormous resentment since it appears to be an unfair means to allocate wealth from savers to borrowers.

What is the most significant cause of inflation?

The growth in the money supply, workforce shortages and rising salaries, supply chain disruption, and fossil fuel policy are all contributing contributors to present inflation. Inflation is a phenomena in which the price of goods and services in a given economy rises over time.

What is creating 2021 inflation?

As fractured supply chains combined with increased consumer demand for secondhand vehicles and construction materials, 2021 saw the fastest annual price rise since the early 1980s.