What GDP Does Not Measure?

In reality, “GDP counts everything but that which makes life meaningful,” as Senator Robert F. Kennedy memorably stated. Health, education, equality of opportunity, the state of the environment, and many other measures of quality of life are not included in the number. It does not even assess critical features of the economy, such as its long-term viability, or whether it is on the verge of collapsing. What we measure, however, is important because it directs our actions. The military’s emphasis on “body counts,” or the weekly calculation of the number of enemy soldiers killed, gave Americans a hint of this causal link during the Vietnam War. The US military’s reliance on this morbid statistic led them to conduct operations with no other goal than to increase the body count. The focus on corpse numbers, like a drunk seeking for his keys under a lamppost (because that’s where the light is), blinded us to the greater picture: the massacre was enticing more Vietnamese citizens to join the Viet Cong than American forces were killing.

Now, a different corpse count, COVID-19, is proving to be an alarmingly accurate indicator of society performance. There isn’t much of a link between it and GDP. With a GDP of more than $20 trillion in 2019, the United States is the world’s richest country, implying that we have a highly efficient economic engine, a race vehicle that can outperform any other. However, the United States has had almost 600,000 deaths, but Vietnam, with a GDP of $262 billion (and only 4% of the United States’ GDP per capita), has had less than 500 to far. This less fortunate country has easily defeated us in the fight to save lives.

In fact, the American economy resembles a car whose owner saved money by removing the spare tire, which worked fine until he got a flat. And what I call “GDP thinking”the mistaken belief that increasing GDP will improve well-being on its owngot us into this mess. In the near term, an economy that uses its resources more efficiently has a greater GDP in that quarter or year. At a microeconomic level, attempting to maximize that macroeconomic measure translates to each business decreasing costs in order to obtain the maximum possible short-term profits. However, such a myopic emphasis inevitably jeopardizes the economy’s and society’s long-term performance.

The health-care industry in the United States, for example, took pleasure in efficiently using hospital beds: no bed was left empty. As a result, when SARS-CoV-2 arrived in the United States, there were only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people, significantly fewer than in other sophisticated countries, and the system was unable to cope with the rapid influx of patients. In the short run, doing without paid sick leave in meat-packing facilities improved earnings, which raised GDP. Workers, on the other hand, couldn’t afford to stay at home when they were sick, so they went to work and spread the sickness. Similarly, because China could produce protective masks at a lower cost than the US, importing them enhanced economic efficiency and GDP. However, when the epidemic struck and China required considerably more masks than usual, hospital professionals in the United States were unable to meet the demand. To summarize, the constant pursuit of short-term GDP maximization harmed health care, increased financial and physical insecurity, and weakened economic sustainability and resilience, making Americans more exposed to shocks than inhabitants of other countries.

In the 2000s, the shallowness of GDP thinking had already been apparent. Following the success of the United States in raising GDP in previous decades, European economists encouraged their leaders to adopt American-style economic strategies. However, as symptoms of trouble in the US banking system grew in 2007, France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy learned that any leader who was solely focused on increasing GDP at the expense of other indices of quality of life risked losing the public’s trust. He asked me to chair an international commission on measuring economic performance and social progress in January 2008. How can countries improve their metrics, according to a panel of experts? Sarkozy reasoned that determining what made life valuable was a necessary first step toward improving it.

Our first report, provocatively titled Mismeasuring Our Lives: Why GDP Doesn’t Add Up, was published in 2009, just after the global financial crisis highlighted the need to reassess economic orthodoxy’s key premises. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a think tank that serves 38 advanced countries, decided to follow up with an expert panel after it received such excellent feedback. We confirmed and enlarged our original judgment after six years of dialogue and deliberation: GDP should be dethroned. Instead, each country should choose a “dashboard”a collection of criteria that will guide it toward the future that its citizens desire. The dashboard would include measures for health, sustainability, and any other values that the people of a nation aspired to, as well as inequality, insecurity, and other ills that they intended to reduce, in addition to GDP as a measure of market activity (and no more).

These publications have aided in the formation of a global movement toward improved social and economic indicators. The OECD has adopted the method in its Better Life Initiative, which recommends 11 indicators and gives individuals a way to assess them in relation to other countries to create an index that measures their performance on the issues that matter to them. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), both long-time proponents of GDP thinking, are now paying more attention to the environment, inequality, and the economy’s long-term viability.

This method has even been adopted into the policy-making frameworks of a few countries. In 2019, New Zealand, for example, incorporated “well-being” measures into the country’s budgeting process. “Success is about making New Zealand both a terrific location to make a livelihood and a fantastic place to create a life,” said Grant Robertson, the country’s finance minister. This focus on happiness may have contributed to the country’s victory over COVID-19, which appears to have been contained to around 3,000 cases and 26 deaths in a population of over five million people.

What isn’t included in the GDP?

Assume Kelly, a former economist who is now an opera singer, has been asked to perform in the United Kingdom. Simultaneously, an American computer business manufactures and sells all of its computers in Germany, while a German company manufactures and sells all of its automobiles within American borders. Economists need to know what is and is not counted.

The GDP only includes products and services produced in the country. This means that commodities generated by Americans outside of the United States will not be included in the GDP calculation. When a singer from the United States performs a concert outside of the United States, it is not counted. Foreign goods and services produced and sold within our domestic boundaries, on the other hand, are included in the GDP. When a well-known British musician tours the United States or a foreign car business manufactures and sells cars in the United States, the production is counted.

There are no used items included. These transactions are not reflected in the GDP when Jennifer buys a lawnmower from her father or Megan resells a book she received from her father. Only newly manufactured items – even those that grow in value – are eligible.

What is lacking in GDP?

Despite being a broad measure, GDP fails to account for a number of factors that are critical to the economy and society. Most clearly, GDP does not reflect inequality since it does not describe the distribution of growth. Since 1979, the income of the bottom 20% of earners has increased by 18%. 5 Over the same time period, the top 20% of earners saw their earnings rise by 65 percent, while the top 1% saw their earnings rise by an incredible 277 percent. Meanwhile, the United States’ GDP has more than doubled in the previous 30 years, despite its inability to represent rising income disparity. As shown in the graph below, as GDP has climbed, so has inequality. 6

This disparity, however, is not reflected in GDP figures. GDP is unable to discern between a good economic indication, such as greater spending due to more disposable income, and a negative economic indicator, such as increasing credit card spending due to wage loss or declining real earnings. (GDP per capita has climbed from $25,640 in 1980 to $42,722 in 20107; credit card debt has increased by 285 percent to $3,480 per capita during the same time period.) 8)

Why is GDP not a good metric?

GDP is a rough indicator of a society’s standard of living because it does not account for leisure, environmental quality, levels of health and education, activities undertaken outside the market, changes in income disparity, improvements in diversity, increases in technology, or the cost of living.

What types of products are excluded from GDP?

The current value of all final products and services produced in a country in a year is defined as GDP. What do you mean by final goods? At the end of the year, they are commodities or services in the last stages of production. When calculating GDP, statisticians must avoid the error of double counting, which occurs when output is counted more than once as it moves through the stages of production. Consider what would happen if government statisticians first tallied the value of tires manufactured by a tire manufacturer, then the value of a new truck sold by a carmaker that included those tires. Because the value of the truck already includes the value of the tires, the value of the tires would have been counted twice in this scenario.

To avoid this problem, which would greatly exaggerate the size of the economy, government statisticians measure GDP at the end of the year by counting only the value of final goods and services in the production chain. Intermediate products are not included in GDP statistics since they are used in the creation of other items.

In the case above, government statisticians would calculate the value of the truck plus the value of any tires made but not yet installed on trucks, because those tires are counted as final products at the end of the year. When new trucks are put on the road next year, GDP will include the value of the new trucks minus the value of the tires counted this year. If this seems difficult, keep in mind that the goal is to only count items that are generated once.

GDP is a simple concept: it is the monetary value of all final products and services generated in the economy in a given year. Calculating the more than $16 trillion-dollar U.S. GDPalong with how it changes every few monthsis a full-time job for a brigade of government statisticians in our decentralized, market-oriented economy.

  • Raw materials that have been manufactured but have yet to be employed in the manufacture of intermediate or final items.
  • Intermediate goods and services that have been transformed into finished products and services (e.g. tires on a new truck)

Take note of the elements in the list above that are not included in GDP. Because used products were produced in a prior year and are included in that year’s GDP, they are not included. Transfer payments, such as Social Security, are payments made by the government to people. Because transfers do not represent output, they are not included in GDP. Non-marketed products and services, such as those produced at home, such as when you clean your house, are not counted because they are not sold in the marketplace. If you hire Merry Maids to clean your house, on the other hand, your payments are recognized as part of GDP because the transaction is considered to have occurred in the marketplace. Finally, the underground economy of “under the table” services, as well as any other illicit sales, should be counted, but they aren’t because they aren’t disclosed in any way. According to a recent analysis by Friedrich Schneider of Shadow Economies, the underground sector in the United States accounted for 6.6 percent of GDP in 2013, or about $2 trillion.

The Expenditure Approach is a method used by economists to estimate GDP. Let’s have a look at that now.

What can’t GDP measure quizlet?

What items are excluded from GDP calculations? Illegal transactions, such as the black market, stock and bond sales, items produced at home but not sold (cooking, pluming, etc. ), used goods sales, leisure value, social well-being, pollution, and other negative externalities

What information does GDP provide about the economy?

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is not a measure of wealth “wealth” in any way. It is a monetary indicator. It’s a relic of the past “The value of products and services produced in a certain period in the past is measured by the “flow” metric. It says nothing about whether you’ll be able to produce the same quantity next year. You’ll need a balance sheet for that, which is a measure of wealth. Both balance sheets and income statements are used by businesses. Nations, however, do not.

Why is GDP not a good indicator of welfare growth?

Putting it all together in a nutshell Despite its flaws, GDP is widely employed as a measure of societal well-being. As a result, GDP fails to take into account non-market activities, wealth distribution, externalities, and the sorts of commodities and services generated within the economy.

Why is GNP not a good indicator of economic prosperity?

If we repeated this process for all of the products on our list, the total would be gross national disproduct. When the sum is compared to the aggregate of production as measured by GNP, it shows how far we’ve come in terms of social wellbeing. In fact, we’d have our wonderful “social” indication of what the country has accomplished if we could find a true “net” between disproduct and product.

The outcomes would almost certainly be disappointing. We’d probably discover that, while gratifying today’s human desires, we were also producing present and future desires to repair the damage caused by current manufacturing.

Conclusion:

GNP can only reflect the amount of money that society exchanges for commodities since it assesses the market value of final goods and services. As a result, many vital activities that have an impact on our standard of living are left out of the GNP calculation. We include benefits received from the government in GNP but not the expenditures of giving them, for example.

Another example is the social benefit of education but not the costs of obtaining it. As a result, one would be inclined to produce a more accurate assessment of economic output by include both negative and positive production contributions. However, the majority of economists disagree with this approach.

Quiz: Why is GDP not a good indicator of economic well-being?

The use or depletion of our natural resources, such as oil, rainforests, wetlands, fish populations, and so on, has little effect on GDP. There is no indication of how the economy’s GDP is distributed across the various social and economic categories and people.