What Happened During The Last Recession?

The Great Recession, which ran from December 2007 to June 2009, was one of the worst economic downturns in US history.
The economic crisis was precipitated by the collapse of the housing market, which was fueled by low interest rates, cheap lending, poor regulation, and hazardous subprime mortgages.
New financial laws and an aggressive Federal Reserve are two of the Great Recession’s legacies.

What happened during the 2008 recession?

In 2008, the stock market plummeted. The Dow had one of the most significant point declines in history. Congress passed the Struggling Asset Relief Scheme (TARP) to empower the US Treasury to implement a major rescue program for troubled banks. The goal was to avoid a national and global economic meltdown.

How long did the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis linger?

When the decade-long expansion in US housing market activity peaked in 2006, the Great Moderation came to an end, and residential development began to decline. Losses on mortgage-related financial assets began to burden global financial markets in 2007, and the US economy entered a recession in December 2007. Several prominent financial firms were in financial difficulties that year, and several financial markets were undergoing substantial upheaval. The Federal Reserve responded by providing liquidity and support through a variety of measures aimed at improving the functioning of financial markets and institutions and, as a result, limiting the damage to the US economy. 1 Nonetheless, the economic downturn deteriorated in the fall of 2008, eventually becoming severe and long enough to be dubbed “the Great Recession.” While the US economy reached bottom in the middle of 2009, the recovery in the years that followed was exceptionally slow in certain ways. In response to the severity of the downturn and the slow pace of recovery that followed, the Federal Reserve provided unprecedented monetary accommodation. Furthermore, the financial crisis prompted a slew of important banking and financial regulation reforms, as well as congressional legislation that had a substantial impact on the Federal Reserve.

Rise and Fall of the Housing Market

Following a long period of expansion in US house building, home prices, and housing loans, the recession and crisis struck. This boom began in the 1990s and accelerated in the mid-2000s, continuing unabated through the 2001 recession. Between 1998 and 2006, average home prices in the United States more than doubled, the largest increase in US history, with even bigger advances in other locations. During this time, home ownership increased from 64 percent in 1994 to 69 percent in 2005, while residential investment increased from around 4.5 percent of US GDP to nearly 6.5 percent. Employment in housing-related sectors contributed for almost 40% of net private sector job creation between 2001 and 2005.

The development of the housing market was accompanied by an increase in household mortgage borrowing in the United States. Household debt in the United States increased from 61 percent of GDP in 1998 to 97 percent in 2006. The rise in home mortgage debt appears to have been fueled by a number of causes. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained a low federal funds rate after the 2001 recession, and some observers believe that by keeping interest rates low for a “long period” and only gradually increasing them after 2004, the Federal Reserve contributed to the expansion of housing market activity (Taylor 2007). Other researchers, on the other hand, believe that such variables can only explain for a small part of the rise in housing activity (Bernanke 2010). Furthermore, historically low interest rates may have been influenced by significant savings accumulations in some developing market economies, which acted to keep interest rates low globally (Bernanke 2005). Others attribute the surge in borrowing to the expansion of the mortgage-backed securities market. Borrowers who were deemed a bad credit risk in the past, maybe due to a poor credit history or an unwillingness to make a big down payment, found it difficult to get mortgages. However, during the early and mid-2000s, lenders offered high-risk, or “subprime,” mortgages, which were bundled into securities. As a result, there was a significant increase in access to housing financing, which helped to drive the ensuing surge in demand that drove up home prices across the country.

Effects on the Financial Sector

The extent to which home prices might eventually fall became a significant question for the pricing of mortgage-related securities after they peaked in early 2007, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, because large declines in home prices were viewed as likely to lead to an increase in mortgage defaults and higher losses to holders of such securities. Large, nationwide drops in home prices were uncommon in US historical data, but the run-up in home prices was unique in terms of magnitude and extent. Between the first quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2011, property values declined by more than a fifth on average across the country. As financial market participants faced significant uncertainty regarding the frequency of losses on mortgage-related assets, this drop in home values contributed to the financial crisis of 2007-08. Money market investors became concerned of subprime mortgage exposures in August 2007, putting pressure on certain financial markets, particularly the market for asset-backed commercial paper (Covitz, Liang, and Suarez 2009). The investment bank Bear Stearns was bought by JPMorgan Chase with the help of the Federal Reserve in the spring of 2008. Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in September, and the Federal Reserve aided AIG, a significant insurance and financial services firm, the next day. The Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation were all approached by Citigroup and Bank of America for assistance.

The Federal Reserve’s assistance to specific financial firms was hardly the only instance of central bank credit expansion in reaction to the crisis. The Federal Reserve also launched a slew of new lending programs to help a variety of financial institutions and markets. A credit facility for “primary dealers,” the broker-dealers who act as counterparties to the Fed’s open market operations, as well as lending programs for money market mutual funds and the commercial paper market, were among them. The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which was launched in collaboration with the US Department of Treasury, was aimed to relieve credit conditions for families and enterprises by offering credit to US holders of high-quality asset-backed securities.

To avoid an increase in bank reserves that would drive the federal funds rate below its target as banks sought to lend out their excess reserves, the Federal Reserve initially funded the expansion of Federal Reserve credit by selling Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, got the right to pay banks interest on their excess reserves in October 2008. This encouraged banks to keep their reserves rather than lending them out, reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to offset its increased lending with asset reductions.2

Effects on the Broader Economy

The housing industry was at the forefront of not only the financial crisis, but also the broader economic downturn. Residential construction jobs peaked in 2006, as did residential investment. The total economy peaked in December 2007, the start of the recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The drop in general economic activity was slow at first, but it accelerated in the fall of 2008 when financial market stress reached a peak. The US GDP plummeted by 4.3 percent from peak to trough, making this the greatest recession since World War II. It was also the most time-consuming, spanning eighteen months. From less than 5% to 10%, the jobless rate has more than doubled.

The FOMC cut its federal funds rate objective from 4.5 percent at the end of 2007 to 2 percent at the start of September 2008 in response to worsening economic conditions. The FOMC hastened its interest rate decreases as the financial crisis and economic contraction worsened in the fall of 2008, bringing the rate to its effective floor a target range of 0 to 25 basis points by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve also launched the first of several large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs in November 2008, purchasing mortgage-backed assets and longer-term Treasury securities. These purchases were made with the goal of lowering long-term interest rates and improving financial conditions in general, hence boosting economic activity (Bernanke 2012).

Although the recession ended in June 2009, the economy remained poor. Economic growth was relatively mild in the first four years of the recovery, averaging around 2%, and unemployment, particularly long-term unemployment, remained at historically high levels. In the face of this sustained weakness, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate goal at an unusually low level and looked for new measures to provide extra monetary accommodation. Additional LSAP programs, often known as quantitative easing, or QE, were among them. In its public pronouncements, the FOMC began conveying its goals for future policy settings more fully, including the situations in which very low interest rates were likely to be appropriate. For example, the committee stated in December 2012 that exceptionally low interest rates would likely remain appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remained above a threshold of 6.5 percent and inflation remained no more than a half percentage point above the committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. This “forward guidance” technique was meant to persuade the public that interest rates would remain low at least until specific economic conditions were met, exerting downward pressure on longer-term rates.

Effects on Financial Regulation

When the financial market upheaval calmed, the focus naturally shifted to financial sector changes, including supervision and regulation, in order to avoid such events in the future. To lessen the risk of financial difficulty, a number of solutions have been proposed or implemented. The amount of needed capital for traditional banks has increased significantly, with bigger increases for so-called “systemically essential” institutions (Bank for International Settlements 2011a;2011b). For the first time, liquidity criteria will legally limit the amount of maturity transformation that banks can perform (Bank for International Settlements 2013). As conditions worsen, regular stress testing will help both banks and regulators recognize risks and will require banks to spend earnings to create capital rather than pay dividends (Board of Governors 2011).

New provisions for the treatment of large financial institutions were included in the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, for example, has the authority to classify unconventional credit intermediaries as “Systemically Important Financial Institutions” (SIFIs), putting them under Federal Reserve supervision. The act also established the Orderly Liquidation Authority (OLA), which authorizes the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to wind down specific institutions if their failure would pose a significant risk to the financial system. Another section of the legislation mandates that large financial institutions develop “living wills,” which are detailed plans outlining how the institution could be resolved under US bankruptcy law without endangering the financial system or requiring government assistance.

The financial crisis of 2008 and the accompanying recession, like the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Inflation of the 1970s, are important areas of research for economists and policymakers. While it may be years before the causes and ramifications of these events are fully known, the attempt to unravel them provides a valuable opportunity for the Federal Reserve and other agencies to acquire lessons that can be used to shape future policy.

During a recession, what happened to the economy?

During a recession, the economy suffers, individuals lose their jobs, businesses make less sales, and the country’s overall economic output plummets. The point at which the economy officially enters a recession is determined by a number of factors.

In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin devised a set of guidelines for defining a recession: The most popular was two quarters of decreasing GDP in a row. According to Shiskin, a healthy economy expands over time, therefore two quarters of declining output indicates major underlying issues. Over time, this concept of a recession became widely accepted.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is widely regarded as the authority on when recessions in the United States begin and conclude. “A major fall in economic activity distributed across the economy, lasting more than a few months, generally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales,” according to the NBER’s definition of a recession.

Shiskin’s approach for deciding what constitutes a recession is more rigid than the NBER’s definition. The coronavirus, for example, might cause a W-shaped recession, in which the economy declines one quarter, grows for a quarter, and then drops again in the future. According to Shiskin’s guidelines, this is not a recession, although it could be according to the NBER’s definition.

What caused the last recession?

The Great Recession, which began in 2008 with the US subprime mortgage crisis, was caused by a number of factors, both directly and indirectly. Lax lending standards contributed to the real-estate booms that have since burst; U.S. government housing policies; and weak supervision of non-depository financial institutions were among the key causes of the original subprime mortgage crisis and the subsequent recession. When the recession hit, a variety of responses were tried, with varying degrees of effectiveness. These included government fiscal policies, central bank monetary policies, measures to assist indebted consumers refinance their mortgage debt, and countries’ differing approaches to bailing out troubled banking industries and private bondholders, such as assuming private debt burdens or socializing losses.

Is there going to be a recession in 2021?

The US economy will have a recession, but not until 2022. More business cycles will result as a result of Federal Reserve policy, which many enterprises are unprepared for. The decline isn’t expected until 2022, but it might happen as soon as 2023.

How many recessions has the United States experienced?

A recession is defined as a two-quarters or longer decline in economic growth as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP). Since World War II and up until the COVID-19 epidemic, the US economy has endured 12 different recessions, beginning with an eight-month depression in 1945 and ending with the longest run of economic expansion on record.

Recessions in the United States have lasted an average of 10 months, while expansions have averaged 57 months.

What types of occupations did the recession eliminate?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) declared in April 2014 that the number of private-sector jobs in the United States has finally recovered to its 2008 peak six long years and an agonizingly slow four-year recovery. According to a 2013 analysis from the Congressional Research Service (CRS), unemployment was only 4.4 percent in October 2006, but had risen to 10% by 2009. It has recently reduced to 6.7 percent, but openings can still be difficult to come by. Many groups have been heavily impacted, ranging from veterans to recent college grads, and job searches for the long-term unemployed can drag on indefinitely.

The US economy is predicted to add 200,000 jobs every year, but those added will not necessarily be the same as those lost six years ago. The labor market in the United States has been significantly recomposed as a result of ongoing technical and economic transformation, including computerization and outsourcing. According to a 2013 study by Duke University and the University of British Columbia, middle-income occupations are rapidly vanishing during recessions.

“The Low-Wage Recovery: Industry Employment and Wages Four Years into the Recovery,” a 2014 analysis of BLS data by the National Employment Law Project (NELP), looks at the types of employment that were lost during the recession and those that have been added since the recovery began. The BLS’s Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) surveys provided the source data. The OES provided pay data, which is based on median estimates rather than averages, which can be skewed by higher-paid employment within certain industries.

While the US economy has recovered to the number of private-sector jobs it had in 2008, the gains and losses have not been evenly distributed: 1 million jobs were lost in high-wage industries, whereas 1.8 million were added in low-wage industries. The effects of the recession vary widely, as shown in the graph below, but overall, losses were greater in high-wage jobs and growth was stronger in low-wage jobs.
Lower-wage industries were responsible for 22% of job losses during the recession, but 44% of job gains since the recovery began. During the recession, the lower-wage sector lost 2 million jobs, but has subsequently added 3.8 million.
Food-service work, which pays the least of the low-paid jobs with a median hourly wage of $9.48, grew the most: While the recession resulted in the loss of 367,000 jobs, 1.2 million have been gained since then. Overall, the sector now employs 9% more people than it did before the recession.
Health and education are two other low-wage growth industries: “This was the only industry to add jobs during both the downturn and the recovery, bringing employment nearly 13 percent higher than it was at the beginning of the recession.”
Mid-wage industries accounted for 37% of job losses during the recession, but just 26% of new jobs since then. There are roughly one million fewer such employment presently than there were in 2008. Services provided by local governments were particularly heavily hit, and they have yet to fully recover.
Higher-wage industries lost 41% of jobs during the recession, but only 30% of new jobs were created. 3.6 million jobs in higher-wage industries including accounting, legal work, and construction were lost during the recession; just 2.6 million jobs have been added since then.
The high-wage professional, scientific, and technical services industries saw significant job growth through March 2014, adding more than 800,000 jobs occupations like accountants, legal professionals, software developers, and engineers. “While significant job growth in this higher-wage industry is a welcome trend, employment growth is nearly six percentage points lower than it was at a similar stage following the 2001 recession,” says the report.
While there has been some recovery in construction, manufacturing, transportation, and related occupations, the recession losses were so large that they are only now returning to pre-recession levels construction employment is still 20% below its 2008 peak, for example, and food and textile manufacturing employment is still 11% below its pre-recession peak.
“Over the last four years, private-sector increases have been somewhat offset by job losses in the public sector as a result of federal, state, and local budget cuts. During the recovery era, net employment losses totaled 627,000 across all levels of government. Education absorbed over three-quarters of the 378,000 net job losses over the last four years, which was particularly severe at the municipal level.”
The job losses and gains in the 2001 and 2008 recessions were quite different: After the 2001 recession, 39 percent of the gains were in lower-wage industries, 20 percent in mid-wage industries, and 40 percent in higher-wage industries. Growth has been concentrated in low-wage and some mid-wage industries since the 2008 recession, but higher-wage growth has been significantly weaker.

In an interview with the New York Times, the study’s author, Michael Evangelist, said: “Fast food is driving the bulk of the job growth at the bottom end – the job gains there are just phenomenal.” If this is the case if these occupations are here to stay and will account for a significant portion of the economy the issue becomes, “How can we make them better?”

Recession, unemployment, inequality, financial crisis, jobless recovery, offshoring, and computerization are some of the terms used to describe the situation.

Who were the hardest hit by the Great Recession?

Rising unemployment, dropping property values, and the stock market decline all had an impact on those approaching retirement, either directly or indirectly. Furthermore, many elderly persons who were not directly impacted by the recession had children or other relatives who were. For many older persons, the recession’s financial difficulties resulted in changes in wealth and spending patterns, as well as physical and mental health issues with long-term effects.

Who is responsible for the 2008 Great Recession?

The Lenders are the main perpetrators. The mortgage originators and lenders bear the brunt of the blame. That’s because they’re the ones that started the difficulties in the first place. After all, it was the lenders who made loans to persons with bad credit and a high chance of default. 7 This is why it happened.

In a downturn, who benefits?

Question from the audience: Identify and explain economic variables that may be positively affected by the economic slowdown.

A recession is a time in which the economy grows at a negative rate. It’s a time of rising unemployment, lower salaries, and increased government debt. It usually results in financial costs.

Companies that provide low-cost entertainment. Bookmakers and publicans are thought to do well during a recession because individuals want to ‘drink their sorrows away’ with little bets and becoming intoxicated. (However, research suggest that life expectancy increases during recessions, contradicting this old wives tale.) Demand for online-streaming and online entertainment is projected to increase during the 2020 Coronavirus recession.
Companies that are suffering with bankruptcies and income loss. Pawnbrokers and companies that sell pay day loans, for example people in need of money turn to loan sharks.
Companies that sell substandard goods. (items whose demand increases as income decreases) e.g. value goods, second-hand retailers, etc. Some businesses, such as supermarkets, will be unaffected by the recession. People will reduce their spending on luxuries, but not on food.
Longer-term efficiency gains Some economists suggest that a recession can help the economy become more productive in the long run. A recession is a shock, and inefficient businesses may go out of business, but it also allows for the emergence of new businesses. It’s what Joseph Schumpeter dubbed “creative destruction” the idea that when some enterprises fail, new inventive businesses can emerge and develop.
It’s worth noting that in a downturn, solid, efficient businesses can be put out of business due to cash difficulties and a temporary decline in revenue. It is not true that all businesses that close down are inefficient. Furthermore, the loss of enterprises entails the loss of experience and knowledge.
Falling asset values can make purchasing a home more affordable. For first-time purchasers, this is a good option. It has the potential to aid in the reduction of wealth disparities.
It is possible that one’s life expectancy will increase. According to studies from the Great Depression, life expectancy increased in areas where unemployment increased. This may seem counterintuitive, but the idea is that unemployed people will spend less money on alcohol and drugs, resulting in improved health. They may take fewer car trips and thus have a lower risk of being involved in fatal car accidents. NPR

The rate of inflation tends to reduce during a recession. Because unemployment rises, wage inflation is moderated. Firms also respond to decreased demand by lowering prices.

Those on fixed incomes or who have cash savings may profit from the decrease in inflation. It may also aid in the reduction of long-term inflationary pressures. For example, the 1980/81 recession helped to bring inflation down from 1970s highs.

After the Lawson boom and double-digit inflation, the 1991 Recession struck.

Efficiency increase?

It has been suggested that a recession encourages businesses to become more efficient or go out of business. A recession might hasten the ‘creative destruction’ process. Where inefficient businesses fail, efficient businesses thrive.

Covid Recession 2020

The Covid-19 epidemic was to blame for the terrible recession of 2020. Some industries were particularly heavily damaged by the recession (leisure, travel, tourism, bingo halls). However, several businesses benefited greatly from the Covid-recession. We shifted to online delivery when consumers stopped going to the high street and shopping malls. Online behemoths like Amazon saw a big boost in sales. For example, Amazon’s market capitalisation increased by $570 billion in the first seven months of 2020, owing to strong sales growth (Forbes).

Profitability hasn’t kept pace with Amazon’s surge in sales. Because necessities like toilet paper have a low profit margin, profit growth has been restrained. Amazon has taken the uncommon step of reducing demand at times. They also experienced additional costs as a result of Covid, such as paying for overtime and dealing with Covid outbreaks in their warehouses. However, due to increased demand for online streaming, Amazon saw fast development in its cloud computing networks. These are the more profitable areas of the business.

Apple, Google, and Facebook all had significant revenue and profit growth during an era when companies with a strong online presence benefited.

The current recession is unique in that there are more huge winners and losers than ever before. It all depends on how the virus’s dynamics effect the firm as well as aggregate demand.