Analysts believe that, even as other central banks around the world tighten policy, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may be able to loosen policy to help the slowing economy.
“Concerns about inflation are unlikely to deter the (People’s Bank of China) from taking additional policy easing measures,” said Sheana Yue, China Economist at Capital Economics.
“Lower inflation signals poor domestic demand,” said Zhiwei Zhang, Pinpoint Asset Management’s Chief Economist. “Macro policies have shifted in favor of the economy, but it will take time for the effects to be felt.”
Due to rising global energy prices, the Chinese economy, notably its massive manufacturing sector, has battled with high production costs.
Coal mining and washing prices increased 51.3 percent year over year in January, while oil and gas extraction prices increased 38.2 percent.
China’s state planner warned earlier this month that global inflation is likely to continue for some time, but that the country’s ability to deal with unusual price variations is strong.
Producer price inflation is expected to fall further this year, while consumer price inflation is expected to go up, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
To slash borrowing costs, the PBOC has cut interest rates and injected cash into the banking system, with more easing measures planned.
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Yue of Capital Economics anticipates more policy rate reduction before the end of the year.
In contrast to Western central banks, which have either begun hiking interest rates or are generally expected to do so this year, China has the ability to soften.
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At the same time, regulators are leery about relaxing credit conditions too quickly, which might re-ignite speculative property price rises.
The property market has slowed as a result of developer borrowing restrictions and apprehensive buyers.
“Policymakers don’t want to erase all the gains they made in the property market last year by cutting interest rates,” said Nie Wen, chief economist at Hwabao Trust.
“Now that they’ve finally managed to rein in rapidly growing (property) prices, any interest rate decreases will be structural, aimed at boosting the actual economy rather than further fuelling the property market.”
What will China’s inflation rate be in 2021?
Inflation in China has dropped to a four-month low of 0.9 percent. The CPI grew 0.9 percent year over year in 2021, well below the central bank’s objective of approximately 3% and substantially lower than the 2.5 percent increase in 2020.
What does China’s inflation look like?
In January, China’s core consumer inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed by 1.2 percent year on year, unchanged from December. Non-food costs rose 2% year over year last month, down from a reading of 2.1 percent in December.
Is China combating inflation?
China’s factory-gate inflation is expected to decrease further this year, reaching an average of 3.9 percent in 2022, according to economists. PPI will fall gradually, according to the country’s top economic planner, with tighter monetary policy in the rest of the world helping to dampen the global commodity rise.
What caused the inflation in China?
According to Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the China Association of Policy Science’s economic policy committee, the source of the higher CPI was pricing pressure transmitted from upstream producers as the PPI touched a 26-year high, albeit rising vegetable prices also contributed to consumer inflation.
Why is the inflation rate in the United States so high?
Inflation isn’t going away anytime soon. In fact, prices are rising faster than they have been since the early 1980s.
According to the most current Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, prices increased 7.9% in February compared to the previous year. Since January 1982, this is the largest annualized increase in CPI inflation.
Even when volatile food and energy costs were excluded (so-called core CPI), the picture remained bleak. In February, the core CPI increased by 0.5 percent, bringing the 12-month increase to 6.4 percent, the most since August 1982.
One of the Federal Reserve’s primary responsibilities is to keep inflation under control. The CPI inflation report from February serves as yet another reminder that the Fed has more than enough grounds to begin raising interest rates and tightening monetary policy.
“I believe the Fed will raise rates three to four times this year,” said Larry Adam, Raymond James’ chief investment officer. “By the end of the year, inflation might be on a definite downward path, negating the necessity for the five-to-seven hikes that have been discussed.”
Following the reopening of the economy in 2021, supply chain problems and pent-up consumer demand for goods have drove up inflation. If these problems are resolved, the Fed may not have as much work to do in terms of inflation as some worry.
Is China inflating the world?
And, as worldwide demand picks up following the pandemic, the higher prices aren’t deterring customers: Exports from China are expected to increase by 21% this year, the largest increase in over a decade.
Is inflation beneficial?
- Inflation, according to economists, occurs when the supply of money exceeds the demand for it.
- When inflation helps to raise consumer demand and consumption, which drives economic growth, it is considered as a positive.
- Some people believe inflation is necessary to prevent deflation, while others say it is a drag on the economy.
- Some inflation, according to John Maynard Keynes, helps to avoid the Paradox of Thrift, or postponed consumption.
What is a reasonable rate of inflation?
The Federal Reserve has not set a formal inflation target, but policymakers usually consider that a rate of roughly 2% or somewhat less is acceptable.
Participants in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which includes members of the Board of Governors and presidents of Federal Reserve Banks, make projections for how prices of goods and services purchased by individuals (known as personal consumption expenditures, or PCE) will change over time four times a year. The FOMC’s longer-run inflation projection is the rate of inflation that it considers is most consistent with long-term price stability. The FOMC can then use monetary policy to help keep inflation at a reasonable level, one that is neither too high nor too low. If inflation is too low, the economy may be at risk of deflation, which indicates that prices and possibly wages are declining on averagea phenomena linked with extremely weak economic conditions. If the economy declines, having at least a minor degree of inflation makes it less likely that the economy will suffer from severe deflation.
The longer-run PCE inflation predictions of FOMC panelists ranged from 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent as of June 22, 2011.