According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts, China’s GDP per capita is predicted to reach $8840.00 USD by the end of 2021. According to our econometric models, China’s GDP per capita will trend around 9020.00 USD in 2022 and 9090.00 USD in 2023 in the long run.
What is the difference between the US and Chinese GDP per capita?
In both nominal and PPP terms, the United States and China are the world’s two largest economies. The United States leads in nominal terms, while China has led in PPP terms since 2017, when it overtook the United States. In nominal and PPP terms, both countries account for 41.89 percent and 34.75 percent of global GDP in 2021, respectively. Both countries have much bigger GDPs than the third-placed countries, Japan (nominal) and India (PPP). As a result, only these two are competing for first place.
According to IMF forecasts for 2021, the United States will be ahead by $6,033 billion, or 1.36 times, in terms of exchange rates. On a purchasing power parity measure, China’s GDP is worth $3,982 billion dollars, or 1.18 times that of the United States. According to World Bank estimates, China’s GDP was approximately 11% of that of the United States in 1960, but is now 67 percent in 2019.
Due to China’s enormous population, which is more than four times that of the United States, the gap in per capita income between the two countries is enormous. In nominal and PPP terms, the United States’ per capita income is 5.78 and 3.61 times that of China, respectively. The United States is the world’s fifth richest country, while China is ranked 63rd. On a PPP basis, the United States ranks eighth, while China ranks 76th.
China’s GDP growth rate reaches a high of 19.30 percent in 1970 and a low of -27.27 percent in 1961. Between 1961 and 2019, China experienced a 22-year growth rate of greater than 10%. In 1984, the US hit an all-time high of 7.24 percent, while in 2009, it hit a new low of -2.54 percent. For the first time in eight years, the United States’ GDP growth rate was negative. In the last four years, China has experienced negative growth.
China is ahead of the United States in the agriculture and industry sectors, according to the World Factbook. Agriculture output in the United States is only 17.58 percent of China’s, whereas industry output is 77.58 percent. The US services industry is more than double that of China.
What percentage of China’s GDP is 2020?
According to the IMF, China’s GDP (nominal) and GDP (PPP) per capita income ranked 59th and 73rd, respectively, in 2020. In 2020, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) was $15.66 trillion (101.6 trillion yuan).
What accounts for China’s low GDP per capita?
Mark Perry reminds out that, despite China’s enormous GDP, its GDP per capita remains low due to the country’s large population (1.33 billion people).
While Perry is true in his assessment, the difficulty is that he does not comprehend the implications of this fact. He claims that it still has a long way to go before it can be considered a “superpower.” However, having a high per capita income has never been a prerequisite for “superpower” status. If it did, countries like Qatar, Luxembourg, and Liechtenstein would be superpowers, and no one ever talks about them in that light. Total GDP indicates what one may call “superpower” status, whereas per capita GDP measures how wealthy the average citizen is.
Furthermore, China’s low per capita GDP is a major reason why the country is almost guaranteed to overtake the United States. Someone once asked me how I was so sure that my prediction that China would almost surely surpass the United States in total GDP wouldn’t turn out to be as incorrect as similar projections made about Japan in the late 1980s. My response was straightforward: China has more than ten times the population of Japan.
Because China has more than four times the population of the United States, it is not essential to assume that China will achieve the same per capita income as the United States in order for China to exceed the United States in total GDP. It is sufficient to suppose that China will achieve a per capita income equal to one-quarter of that of the United States. And, given that per capita income in Hong Kong and Singapore, and to a lesser extent Taiwan, is significantly higher than in other majority-Chinese countries, that is surely not something that Chinese people are incapable of achieving.
Is China owing money to America?
Over the previous few decades, China has steadily increased its holdings of US Treasury securities. The Asian nation owns $1.065 trillion, or 3.68 percent, of the $28.9 trillion US national debt, more than any other foreign entity save Japan as of October 2021.
Is China considered a superpower?
Some have decided that China has met the criteria for superpower status, citing China’s growing political clout and economic leadership as reasons for the country’s enhanced role in the international community. The perceived humiliation of US leadership in failing to prevent its closest allies from joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX, was seen as a paradigm shift or an inflection point to the unipolar world order that dominated post-Cold War international relations. According to University Professor ystein Tunsj, competition between China and the United States will rise, resulting in a narrowing of the gap between them, while the gap between the two countries and the rest of the world’s top ten economies would widen. China is using a combination of its economic might and growing military advancements to pressure, coerce, and change the current world order to accommodate China’s interests at the expense of the US and its allies, according to economics correspondent Peter S. Goodman and Beijing Bureau Chief of China, Jane Perlez.
The Chinese Defense White Paper for 2019 emphasizes the growing strategic competition between China and the United States, but it falls short of the military and ideological confrontation that characterized the Cold War. According to Anthony H. Cordesman, the report was significantly more mild in its assessment of the US than the US stance on Chinese military developments, despite the fact that both China and the US are rival superpowers. According to Cordesman, the report was ultimately a warning that will influence Sino-American relations as China grows stronger in practically every way save its nuclear arsenal.
The United States Studies Centre released a paper on August 19, 2019, claiming that Washington no longer has primacy in the Indo-Pacific. It emphasizes that the US response to China’s role in the Pacific has been greatly distracted by the war on terror; that the US military force in the region has greatly atrophied since 9/11, whereas Beijing has only grown stronger and more capable, to the point where China could now actively challenge the US over the Indo-Pacific. According to the 2021 Asia Power Index, the US continues to lead Asia in military capabilities, cultural influence, resilience, future resources, diplomatic influence, and defense networks, but trails China in two areas: economic capability and economic relationships. The underlying problem in the discussion concerning America’s decline is China’s challenge to the United States for global dominance.
China’s Economy Prior to Reforms
Prior to 1979, China had a centrally planned, or command, economy under Chairman Mao Zedong’s direction. The state directed and controlled a substantial portion of the country’s economic output, setting production objectives, controlling prices, and allocating resources across the sector. All of China’s individual household farms were collectivized into big communes in the 1950s. During the 1960s and 1970s, the central government made large-scale expenditures in physical and human capital to promote rapid industrialization. As a result, by 1978, over three-quarters of industrial output was produced by centrally controlled, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with output targets set centrally. Private businesses and foreign-owned businesses were typically prohibited. The Chinese government’s main goal was to make China’s economy largely self-sufficient. In general, foreign trade was confined to obtaining items that could not be manufactured or obtained in China. The economy was distorted as a result of such practices. There were few incentives for firms, workers, and farmers to become more productive or concerned about the quality of what they produced because most aspects of the economy were managed and run by the central government. As a result, there were no market mechanisms to efficiently allocate resources, and thus there were few incentives for firms, workers, and farmers to become more productive or concerned about the quality of what they produced (since they were mainly focused on production goals set by the government).
China’s real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 6.7 percent from 1953 to 1978, according to Chinese government statistics, though the accuracy of these figures has been questioned by many analysts, who contend that Chinese government officials (especially at the subnational levels) often exaggerated production levels for a variety of political reasons during this time. China’s actual average yearly real GDP growth during this period, according to economist Angus Maddison, was around 4.4 percent. 5 Furthermore, China’s economy experienced significant downturns under Chairman Mao Zedong’s leadership, including during the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1962 (which resulted in a massive famine and the deaths of up to 45 million people)6 and the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976 (which resulted in a massive famine and the deaths of up to 45 million people) (which caused widespread political chaos and greatly disrupted the economy). China’s per capita GDP doubled between 1950 and 1978 on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis,7 a typical indicator of a country’s living standards. However, Chinese living standards declined by 20.3 percent between 1958 and 1962, and by 9.6 percent between 1966 and 1968. (see Figure 1). Furthermore, as seen in Figure 2, the rise in Chinese living standards paled in contrast to those in the West, such as Japan.
The Chinese government decided to break with its Soviet-style economic policies in 1978 (shortly after Chairman Mao’s death in 1976) by gradually reforming the economy according to free market principles and opening up trade and investment with the West, in the hopes of significantly increasing economic growth and raising living standards. “Black cat, white cat, what does it matter what color the cat is as long as it catches mice?” said Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s economic reforms. 8
The Introduction of Economic Reforms
China started a series of economic reforms in 1979. Farmers were given price and ownership incentives by the central government, allowing them to sell a portion of their harvests on the open market. Furthermore, the government developed four special economic zones along the coast to attract international investment, increase exports, and import high-tech products into China. Additional reforms, implemented in stages, aimed to decentralize economic policymaking in a number of areas, including trade. Provincial and municipal governments were given economic control of diverse firms, and they were generally allowed to operate and compete on free market principles rather than under the direction and guidance of state planning. Citizens were also encouraged to create their own enterprises. More coastal cities and regions have been classified as open cities and development zones, allowing them to experiment with free-market reforms and give tax and trade advantages to attract international investment. Furthermore, state pricing controls on a variety of products were gradually phased off. China’s economic growth was also aided by trade liberalization. Trade obstacles were removed, allowing for more competitiveness and FDI inflows. China’s incremental economic reforms aimed to determine which policies had positive economic effects (and which did not) so that they might be replicated across the country, a process Deng Xiaoping famously referred to as “crossing the river by touching the stones.” 9
China’s Economic Growth and Reforms: 1979-the Present
China’s economy has developed significantly quicker since economic reforms were implemented, and the country has avoided serious economic upheavals for the most part. 10 China’s annual real GDP averaged 9.5 percent from 1979 to 2018. (see Figure 3). As a result, China’s economy has been able to double in size in real terms every eight years on average. The worldwide economic slowdown that began in 2008 had a major influence on China’s economy. Early in 2009, Chinese media stated that 20 million migrant workers had returned home after losing their jobs due to the financial crisis, and that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 had slowed to 6.8% year-on-year. The Chinese government responded by enacting a $586 billion stimulus program geared primarily at supporting infrastructure and relaxing monetary policy to boost bank lending. 11 As a result of these efforts, China was able to mitigate the consequences of a dramatic drop in worldwide demand for Chinese goods. China’s real GDP growth averaged 9.7% from 2008 to 2010. However, throughout the next six years, the rate of GDP growth fell, falling from 10.6 percent in 2010 to 6.7 percent in 2016. In 2017, real GDP increased to 6.8%, but fell to 6.6 percent in 2018. (although it rose to 6.8 percent in 2017). China’s real GDP growth will decelerate each year over the following six years, according to the IMF’s April 2019 World Economic Outlook, falling to 5.5 percent in 2024. (Figure 4). 12 Many analysts warn that if the US and China continue to apply punitive economic measures against each other, such as tariff rises resulting from US Section 301 action and Chinese retaliation, China’s economic development may decelerate even further. Increased tariffs on all trade between the US and China, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), could cut China’s real GDP by 1.1 percent in 2021-2022, compared to the OECD’s baseline economic predictions. 13
Figure 4: China’s Real Annual GDP Growth from 2007 to 2018, with Forecasts through 2024
Causes of China’s Economic Growth
Much of China’s quick economic growth is attributed to two key factors: large-scale capital investment (funded by substantial domestic savings and foreign investment) and rapid productivity growth, according to economists. These two elements appear to have worked in concert. Economic changes strengthened the economy’s efficiency, resulting in more output and more resources for new investment.
China has a long history of having a high savings rate. Domestic savings as a percentage of GDP was at 32 percent when reforms began in 1979. During this time, however, the majority of Chinese savings were generated through SOE earnings, which were utilised by the central government for domestic investment. Economic reforms, which included decentralization of economic output, resulted in significant increases in both family and business savings in China. As a result, China has the largest gross savings as a proportion of GDP among major economies. China has been able to support a high level of investment due to its substantial domestic savings. In fact, China’s gross domestic savings greatly outnumber its domestic investment, making it a significant net worldwide lender.
Productivity gains (i.e., advances in efficiency) have been identified as another important element in China’s rapid economic growth by a number of experts. Productivity gains were mostly due to a reallocation of resources to more productive uses, particularly in industries like agriculture, trade, and services that were formerly tightly regulated by the government. Agricultural reforms, for example, increased output, allowing employees to pursue jobs in the more productive manufacturing sector. Non-state companies (such as private corporations) arose as a result of China’s economic decentralization, which tended to pursue more productive activities than centrally controlled SOEs and were more market-oriented and efficient. Furthermore, a larger portion of the economy (mostly the export sector) was subjected to competitive dynamics. Local and provincial governments were given unrestricted authority to form and operate businesses without intervention from the federal government. FDI also introduced new technology and procedures to China, which increased efficiency.
However, as China’s technological development converges with that of major developed countries (i.e., through the adoption of foreign technology), productivity gains and, as a result, real GDP growth may slow significantly, unless China becomes a major center for new technology and innovation and/or implements new comprehensive economic reforms. Several developing economies (most notably in Asia and Latin America) experienced rapid economic development and growth in the 1960s and 1970s by implementing some of the same policies that China has used to develop its economy to date, such as measures to boost exports and promote and protect specific industries. However, at some point throughout their development, some of these countries began to face protracted economic stagnation (or substantially slower growth than prior levels), a situation known as the “middle-income trap” by economists. 14 This means that while several developing (low-income) economies were able to transition to a middle-income economy, they were unable to transition to a high-income economy due to their inability to sustain high levels of productivity gains (in part due to their inability to address structural inefficiencies in the economy). 15 China may be at a comparable fork in the road right now. The World Bank uses a per capita gross national income (GNI) approach to classify economic development levels. 16 According to the World Bank, China transitioned from a low-income to a low-middle-income economy in 1997, and then to an upper-middle-income country in 2010. China’s per capita GNI in 2017 was $8,690, which was 38.7% below the amount required to become a high-income economy. According to the Chinese government, China will be able to cross the high-income level by 2025. It intends to accomplish this, in part, by making innovation a key source of future economic growth. Skeptics argue that China’s innovative development will be difficult to achieve, particularly if it is primarily state-driven and imposes new limitations on foreign companies.
Notes: The red bar represents the level at which China would need to achieve in order to become a high-income economy.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), China’s real GDP growth will drop significantly over the next several decades, eventually catching up to US growth rates by 2037. (U.S. and Chinese real GDP growth rates are both projected at 1.9 percent ). For a few years after that, the EIU expects US GDP growth to outpace China’s (Figure 6). 17
Figure 6: Annual Real GDP Growth Rates in the United States and China from 2010 to 2018 and Projections to 2050
The Chinese government has expressed a desire to shift away from its existing economic model of “rapid growth at any cost” to more “smart” growth, which aims to minimize reliance on energy-intensive and high-polluting industries in favor of high technology, renewable energy, and services. China has also stated that it wishes to achieve more balanced economic growth. (These topics are covered in greater depth later in the report.)
What kind of economy does China have?
China was not among the world’s top eight economies forty years ago, following a long period of economic stagnation. China is on track to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy within a few decades, if not sooner, thanks to a stunning social and economic upheaval that began in the late 1970s. It has already done so in several ways. We are currently living in what is being dubbed “The Chinese Century” by many.
China’s economy is the world’s second-largest, after only that of the United States. However, after three decades of phenomenal growth, China is now entering a slower growth phase, which is an unavoidable consequence of the country’s transition from a developing to a more mature, developed economy. China’s annual GDP growth routinely topped 10% in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, with an expected 2019 growth of 6.3 percent, though this is likely to be closer to 6% due to the impact of the US-China trade war.
China is expected to grow at a rate of 6.3 percent in 2019 and 2020, and 6 percent in 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These projections nevertheless put it considerably ahead of the growth rates of most other major economies, putting it on course to eventually overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. Manufacturing, services, and agriculture are the three largest economic sectors in China, employing the bulk of the population and contributing the most to GDP. The Chinese government has been in charge of planning and directing the national economy since 1949. But it wasn’t until 1978, when Deng Xiaoping started market-based reforms, that growth really took off, averaging 10% per year for the next 30 years. The Chinese economy rose by nearly 48 times over that time, from USD 168.367 billion (current prices) in 1981 to USD 11.01 trillion in 2015.
China has had what economists refer to as a socialist market economy since Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms, in which a major state-owned enterprises sector coexists with market capitalism and private ownership. China was able to kick-start the long expansionary boom that continues now thanks to aggressive encouragement of private enterprise beginning in 1978. China’s private sector currently accounts for more than half of the country’s GDP and the majority of its exports. They also generate the majority of new jobs.
On so many levels, China’s unstoppable rise has ramifications and repercussions for us all, and it all boils down to one word: opportunity. Has there ever been an opportunity like China for Australia, and particularly Australian businesses?
Through its five-year plans, which outline goals, strategies, and targets, the Chinese government plays an active role in directing the economy under the socialist-market model. The 1980s and 1990s five-year plans emphasized market-oriented changes, whereas the last two five-year plans have emphasized more balanced growth, increased wealth distribution, and improved environmental protection. The current five-year plan aims to boost China’s competitiveness by promoting more efficient and innovative manufacturing on the east coast, as well as bringing labor-intensive industry to the central provinces and raising domestic demand.
Economic growth has been fueled by export-led industry in previous decades, but it is increasingly becoming more reliant on local demand. The surge in consumption expenditure that has resulted represents a significant opportunity for Australian businesses who can successfully market their products and services to an increasingly affluent Chinese population. Foreign enterprises are also encouraged to engage in important areas such innovative manufacturing, energy conservation, environmental protection, and modern services. Australian firms can benefit from tightened regulations on energy efficiency and environmental protection.
China’s image as a low-cost manufacturing powerhouse since the 1980s, where it efficiently acted as an inexpensive producer for global brands, is shifting as the economy grows. Manufacturers’ profit margins have been steadily declining due to rising labor expenses and an aging workforce. As a result, while cost reduction remains an attractive characteristic of the Chinese market, global and local businesses are beginning to shift their strategy in order to leverage China as a development engine. Currently, China is ranked among the top three regions for producing growth in the coming year by around one-third of global business leaders.
Businesses considering establishing operations in China should be aware that, contrary to popular belief, China’s average wages have been steadily rising in tandem with the country’s economic development, to the point where it is no longer a low-cost hub but rather a dynamic and sophisticated economy. According to the International Labour Organization, the current slowing of the Chinese economy has dampened the wage boom after a double-digit growth in 2009. Nonetheless, average real salaries at state-owned and other urban-based firms increased by 9% in 2016, while private-sector workers’ earnings increased by 8%. The average yearly salary of municipal workers more than tripled from RMB 14,000 in 2003 to RMB 74,000 in 2017, reflecting the Chinese ‘boom.’ However, this new affluence was accompanied by a significant increase in living costs.
Opportunities in China have bloomed across a vast some might say baffling range of industries, market sectors, and geographic locations for Australian enterprises. Rapidly expanding income levels in China, along with widespread migration from rural to urban regions, have resulted in an influx of urban consumers wanting better housing, a cleaner environment, international travel, better education, a higher protein diet, and a wider range of financial services. The newly industrialised China is a fascinating smorgasbord of possibilities, from the sophisticated consumers of developed cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai to the burgeoning middle classes in lesser-known hinterland cities.
This isn’t to argue that doing business in China isn’t fraught with its own set of difficulties. Foreign enterprises must handle obstacles ranging from complex bureaucracy, challenges in intellectual property (IP) law enforcement, quality control, and the sheer, overwhelming size and variety of the country, in addition to linguistic and cultural barriers, which can be significant. There’s also the overarching challenge of understanding and selling to the Chinese customer, which differs from that of other countries. There’s also the large and highly competitive market for both domestic and foreign businesses, as well as the difficulty of understanding and selling to the Chinese customer.
For Australian businesses prepared to put in the necessary preparation and hard effort to handle these hurdles and successfully establish in China, the benefits can be enormous. The Chinese government has continued to implement measures aimed at strengthening standards and promoting more inbound and outbound trade and investment.
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Is China’s per capita GDP growing?
The figures are in current US dollars. In 2020, China’s GDP per capita was $10,500, up 2.78 percent from 2019. The GDP per capita in China in 2019 was $10,217, up 2.41 percent from 2018. In 2018, China’s GDP per capita was $9,977, up 12.36 percent from 2017.
Is China a wealthy country?
According to Justin Yifu Lin, dean of Peking University’s Institute of New Structural Economics, China is extremely near to the World Bank’s high-income country benchmarks.
In 2021, China’s per capita GDP increased by 8.0 percent to 80,976 yuan ($12,551), surpassing the global average and coming near to the bank’s $12,695 high-income country criterion.
According to a report by China News Service, China could cross the $12,695 threshold and become a high-income country by the end of this year at the current Chinese renminbi-US dollar exchange rate.
If potential dollar volatility is taken into account, China may achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country this year or next year, at the very least by 2025, Lin said, adding that this might be a watershed moment in human history.