In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
What will China’s GDP be in 2021?
According to GDP statistics from 2021, China’s most productive provinces and cities are listed below. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP in 2021 was RMB 114.4 trillion (US$17.7 trillion), up around RMB 13 trillion (US$3 trillion) from 2020, or 8.1 percent year-on-year growth (NBS).
What are the top five countries in terms of GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
What is the complete form of GDP?
The total monetary or market worth of all finished goods and services produced inside a country’s borders in a certain time period is known as GDP. It serves as a comprehensive scorecard of a country’s economic health because it is a wide measure of entire domestic production.
Is India considered developed?
India is a southern Asian emerging and developing country (EDC). It is the world’s largest democracy as well as one of the fastest growing economies.
What kind of economy does India have?
The government concentrated on growing its heavy industry sector, but this strategy proved to be unsustainable. India began to remove its economic constraints in 1991, and the country’s private sector grew as a result of the increasing liberalization. India is now classified as a mixed economy, with both the private and public sectors coexisting, and the country relying heavily on international trade.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
Is India a developing country in 2021?
India is still a developing country. Although the country’s economy is improving, poverty remains a serious issue. India, on the other hand, is experiencing a drop in poverty. As of May 2021, it had 84 million people living in extreme poverty, accounting for 6% of the entire population. However, depending on the severity of the economic collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to push an extra number of individuals into extreme poverty. According to the yearly Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report, poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 per day, afflicted between 9.1 percent and 9.4 percent of the world’s population in 2020. This would be a reversion to the 9.2 percent rate seen in 2017. This percentage was predicted to drop to 7.9% in 2020 if the epidemic had not affected the global economy. The World Bank examined and proposed changes to its poverty calculation methodology and purchasing power parity basis for gauging poverty around the world in May 2012. In terms of percentage, it was only 3.6 percent. Multidimensional poverty has decreased dramatically from 54.7 percent in 2005 to 27.9 percent in 20152016 as of 2020. According to Achim Steiner, the administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, India brought 271 million people out of extreme poverty over a 10-year period from 20052006 to 20152016. “Some 220 million Indians sustained on an expenditure level of less than Rs 32 / daythe poverty line for rural Indiaby the last headcount of the poor in India in 2013,” according to a World Economic Forum research from 2020.
Since 19901991, the World Bank has been changing its poverty definition and benchmarks, with a $0.2 per day income on a purchasing power parity basis serving as the standard from 2005 to 2013. To assess poverty in India, some semi-economic and non-economic indices have been proposed. For example, the Multi-dimensional Poverty Index gives a 13 percent weight to the amount of years a person spent in school or engaged in education, and a 6.25 percent weight to the individual’s financial situation when determining whether or not they are poor.
From the 1950s through the 2010s, diverse definitions and underlying small sample surveys used to measure poverty in India resulted in wildly differing estimates of poverty. According to the Indian government, 6.7 percent of the population lives below the official poverty line. According to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDG) program, 80 million Indians (approximately 6.7 percent of the population) lived below the poverty line of $1.25 in 201819, according to the PPPs International Comparison Program for 2019.
Poverty in India increased under the British Raj from the late 19th century to the early 20th century, peaking in the 1920s. Throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, famines and epidemics killed millions of people in a series of vicious cycles. Famines were not allowed to kill millions of people after India attained independence in 1947. Since 1991, India’s strong economic growth has resulted in a significant reduction in extreme poverty. Those who are not poor, on the other hand, have a precarious economic situation. According to the criteria used in the Suresh Tendulkar Committee report, India’s population below the poverty line was 354 million (29.6% of the population) in 20092010 and 69 million (21.9%) in 20112012. According to the Rangarajan Committee, the number of people living in poverty in 20092010 was 454 million (38.2 percent of the population) and 363 million (29.5 percent of the population) in 20112012. According to Deutsche Bank Research, the middle class comprises over 300 million individuals. If current trends continue, India’s proportion of global GDP will rise sharply from 7.3 percent in 2016 to 8.5 percent in 2020. Around 170 million people, or 12.4% of India’s population, lived in poverty in 2012 (defined as $1.90 (Rs 123.5)), down from 29.8% in 2009. Sandhya Krishnan and Neeraj Hatekar, economists, argue in their study that the middle class comprises 600 million people, or more than half of India’s population.
The Asian Development Bank estimates that India’s population is 1.28 billion, with a 1.3 percent annual growth rate from 2010 to 2015. In the year 2014, 9.9% of the population aged 15 and up were employed. 6.9% of the population is still living in poverty, with 63 percent living in extreme poverty (December 2018) The World Poverty Clock displays real-time poverty trends in India, based on the most up-to-date data from the World Bank and other sources. According to latest projections, the country is on track to abolish severe poverty by 2030 by achieving its sustainable development goals. According to Oxfam, India’s richest 1% of the population now owns 73 percent of the country’s wealth, while the poorest half of the population, 670 million people, saw their wealth rise by only 1%.