According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts, India’s GDP per capita is predicted to reach $1750.00 USD by the end of 2021. According to our econometric models, India’s GDP per capita will trend around 1850.00 USD in 2022 and 1920.00 USD in 2023 in the long run.
What is India’s GDP per capita?
- In March 2021, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was 1,947.417 USD, up from 2,140.396 USD in March 2020.
- GDP Per Capita data for India is updated yearly and is available from March 1958 to March 2021, with an average of 318.217 USD.
- The values ranged from a high of 2,140.396 USD in March 2020 to a low of 70.396 USD in March 1958.
- From annual nominal GDP and annual population, CEIC calculates GDP per capita and converts it to USD. Nominal GDP in local currency based on SNA 2008, at 2011-2012 prices and Population are provided by the Central Statistics Office. For currency conversions, the Federal Reserve Board’s average market exchange rate is utilized. GDP per capita is calculated on an annual basis, with the year ending in March.
What would India’s GDP be in 2020?
In 2020-21, India’s GDP declined by 7.3 percent, with a recovery postponed until 2022-23. In 2020-21, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 7.3 percent to $135.13 trillion (in real terms adjusted for inflation). In 2019-20, it was 145.69 trillion dollars.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
In India, how is GDP calculated?
- The GDP of India is estimated using two methods: one based on economic activity (at factor cost) and the other based on expenditure (at market prices).
- The performance of eight distinct industries is evaluated using the factor cost technique.
- The expenditure-based method shows how different aspects of the economy, such as trade, investments, and personal consumption, are performing.
In 1947, what was India’s GDP?
However, as the country near the end of its 74th year of independence, it’s worth reflecting on how far it’s come in such a short time. India had a population of 340 million people at the time of independence. Its literacy rate was likewise shockingly low, at about 12%.
India’s population has expanded to about 1.4 billion people in the last seven decades, with a literacy rate of 74.37 percent in 2018 a remarkable feat given the chaotic period it experienced under British control.
India’s GDP was only 2.7 lakh crore when it gained independence in 1947, accounting for only 3% of the world’s total GDP. India overtook France to become the world’s fifth largest economy in 2018, trailing only the United States, China, Japan, and Germany.
According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s latest data, India’s real GDP is Rs 147.79 lakh crore, accounting for 7.74 percent of world GDP in 2018. (accounting for purchasing power parity). This percentage was expected to climb to about 10% by 2024, but it’s unknown how the COVID-19 pandemic will appear as an economic reality in India in the coming years.
Agriculture accounted for more than half of India’s GDP at the time of independence. Agriculture now makes up just under 16 percent of the Indian economy, despite producing more than five times as much as it did in 1947, indicating the immense structural shifts that the Indian economy has undergone, particularly following the implementation of liberalisation policies in the early 1990s.
While the country’s prosperity since 1947 is unquestionably commendable, it has not been distributed evenly across the country. According to some estimates, India’s share of total world GDP plummeted to as low as 3.8 percent in 1952, prompting former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to say that the country was the poorest country in the world in terms of per capita income at the turn of the twentieth century.
In this context, the World Bank’s 2017 per capita income statistic for India of $1,940 appears to be significant progress. However, a closer examination reveals that, despite being one of the world’s top five economies, India could not match the per-capita figures of the nations ranked above it in 2018. India’s per capita income was not even higher two years ago than that of some of its Asian neighbors, like Sri Lanka ($4,065), Bhutan ($3,110), and the Maldives ($10,536).
While detractors would argue that India’s large population invalidates any comparisons with those countries, it is worth noting that China, the only country with a population equivalent to India’s, had a per capita income four times greater in 2018.
What is the current GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What will be the GDP in 2021?
In addition to updated fourth-quarter projections, today’s announcement includes revised third-quarter 2021 wages and salaries, personal taxes, and government social insurance contributions, all based on new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and wages climbed by $306.8 billion in the third quarter, up $27.7 billion from the previous estimate. With the addition of this new statistics, real gross domestic income is now anticipated to have climbed 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a 0.6 percentage point gain over the prior estimate.
In 2021, real GDP climbed by 5.7 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major components of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP climbed by 10.1 percent (revised), or $2.10 trillion, to $23.00 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous forecast, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to a 1.2 percent gain. With food and energy prices excluded, the PCE price index grew 3.3 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Real GDP grew 5.6 (revised) percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a fall of 2.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 5.6 percent (revised), compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index grew 5.5 percent, unchanged from the previous estimate, versus a 1.2 percent increase. The PCE price index grew 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, which was unchanged from the previous estimate, compared to 1.4 percent.
Is India’s GDP lower than that of Pakistan?
With a GDP of $2,709 billion dollars in 2020, India’s GDP will be about ten times that of Pakistan’s $263 billion dollars. The disparity is larger in nominal terms (almost ten times) than in ppp terms (8.3 times). In nominal terms, India is the world’s fifth largest economy, while in ppp terms, it is the third largest. Pakistan has a nominal ranking of 48 and a PPP ranking of 24. Maharashtra, India’s most economically powerful state, has a GDP of $398 billion, far exceeding Pakistan’s. Tamil Nadu, India’s second-largest economy ($247 billion), is relatively close. The gap between these two countries was at its narrowest in 1993, when India’s nominal GDP was 5.39 times that of Pakistan, and at its widest in 1973. (13.4x).
In terms of gdp per capita, the two countries have been neck and neck. For only five years between 1960 and 2006, India was wealthier than Pakistan. In 1970, Pakistan’s GDP per capita was 1.54 times that of India. Since 2009, the margin has widened in India’s favor. On an exchange rate basis, India’s per capita income was 1.56 times more than Pakistan’s in 2020, with an all-time high of 1.63x in 2019. The previous year, Pakistan was wealthier than India. Both countries rank near the bottom of the world in terms of GDP per capita. India is ranked 147 (nominal) and 130 (absolute) (PPP). Pakistan is ranked 160 (nominal) and 144 in the world (PPP). There are 28 Indian states/UTs that are wealthier than Pakistan.
In 2020, India’s gdp growth rate (-7.97) will be lower than Pakistan’s (-0.39) after 19 years. India’s GDP growth rate reaches a high of 9.63 percent in 1988 and a low of -5.24 percent in 1979. Pakistan’s inflation rate peaked at 11.35 percent in 1970 and peaked at 0.47 percent in 1971. Pakistan expanded by more than 10% in three years from 1961 to 2017, while India never did. India’s GDP growth rate has been negative for four years, whereas Pakistan’s growth rate has never been negative.
According to the CIA Fackbook, India’s GDP composition in 2017 was as follows: agriculture (15.4%), industry (23%), and services (23%). (61.5 percent ). Agriculture (24.7 percent), Industry (19.1 percent), and Services account for the majority of Pakistan’s GDP in 2017. (56.3 percent ).
Is India more impoverished than Africa?
Acute poverty is prevalent in eight Indian states, including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, according to a new UNDP measure termed the Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI). They have more poor people than the 26 poorest African countries put together.
The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, with UNDP financing, created and used a new measure called the Multidimensional Poverty Index. The indicator reflects the nature and scope of poverty at several levels, ranging from the household to regional, national, and worldwide levels.
According to its designers, there are more poor people in eight Indian states (421 million in Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, MP, Orissa, Rajasthan, UP, and West Bengal) than there are in the 26 poorest African countries combined (410 million).
Since 1997, the Human Poverty Index has been included in the Annual Human Development Reports, however the MPI has replaced it.
From education to health outcomes to assets and services, the MPI evaluates a variety of essential characteristics or deprivations at the household level. When these indicators are considered combined, they provide a more complete picture of acute poverty than basic income metrics.
India is home to 1/3 of the world’s poor. It also has a higher percentage of people living on less than $2 per day than even Sub-Saharan Africa.
75.6 percent of the population, or 828 million people, live on less than $2 a day.
42% of the population is poor, according to the new international poverty level.
Indians account for 33% of the world’s poor, or 14 billion people. The situation in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest region, is improving.
With a monthly per capita consumer spend of Rs 447, 41.8 percent of the rural population makes ends meet.
They barely spend Rs 447 on basic necessities such as food, gasoline, light, and clothing.
According to current estimates from the Planning Commission, India’s poverty rate fell from 35.97 percent in 1993-94 to 27.54 percent in 2004-05.
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