Secular inflation is a long period of gradual or minor price increases in economics. Secular inflation, often known as chronic inflation, is essentially long-term inflation that creeps up on you. The steady, rather than abrupt, rise in prices is known as creeping inflation. Secular inflation can be used to describe most inflation rates that are spread across extended periods of time, while it is most usually used to indicate a modest inflation rate. This sort of inflation can be either continuous (with few downward movements) or intermittent (with many downward movements) (occurring at regular intervals).
In economics, what does secular mean?
Secular is a phrase used in finance to describe market activity that take place over a lengthy period of time. Secular also refers to equities or stock sectors that are untouched by short-term trends. Secular trends do not follow a seasonal or cyclical pattern. Instead, they stay the same over time.
What is the distinction between cyclical and secular?
A cyclical market is one that lasts for a limited period of time and is characterized by seasonal or cyclical business circumstances. Peak-trough-peak oscillations are characteristic of a cyclical market. Cyclical stocks are those that fluctuate in response to macroeconomic factors such as consumer expenditure or economic growth. Cyclical equities, on the other hand, are often sold off as growth slows. A secular market is a long-term occurrence with stable circumstances that continue despite economic downturns and cycles.
Is there a long-term tendency in inflation?
When you look behind the volatility-induced “noise,” we believe a heightened level of uncertainty about the course of inflation and interest rates is the core cause of the February stock market downturn. Inflation is a genuine concern since a mistake by the Federal Reserve in response to inflation could hasten the conclusion of the current business cycle. As investors anticipate falling profitability, an economic cycle downturn will almost certainly coincide with, or be preceded by, a bear market.
We explore the views of the “doves,” who emphasize fundamental disinflationary causes, and the “hawks,” who see inflation as an inevitability as a result of massive government debt and aggressive monetary policy, in order to better understand the forces creating inflation.
What is a secular tailwind, exactly?
The fact that there are thousands of stocks to pick from might make investing appear daunting. How do you decide who wins and who loses? The following three suggestions should make it easier for regular investors to do so. If an investment meets these requirements, it has a significantly better chance of earning outstanding long-term returns.
Look for companies that have secular tailwinds.
A secular tailwind is a social or economic trend that affects both the overall economy and the enterprises that engage in it. The global shift toward electronic payments (e.g., credit cards and debit cards) at the expense of paper money transactions is a good illustration of a secular tailwind. This is a long-running pattern that is likely to persist regardless of economic strength or downturn. Companies like Visa (NYSE:V), which are directly involved in aiding this development, will benefit regardless of the economy’s strength.
You must use caution while looking for secular trends to invest in. You must ensure that the trend has not ended or is not about to terminate. For example, 10 to 20 years ago, there was a secular growth tendency in computer sales, but this trend has peaked, and investors can no longer profit from it. People continue to buy computers, but the number of computers sold does not keep pace with economic development.
You should also make sure that the market hasn’t already picked up on the trend. Otherwise, you’ll find yourself overpaying for stocks and rationalizing your actions by claiming that the stock will rise to new highs due to the secular trend. Secular trends frequently end in bubbles, which is why you want to get in early and exit when the market realizes the trend’s power.
Look for companies with wide economic moats
Economic moats are characteristics that make it difficult for other businesses to compete with them. A corporation may, for example, own a patent, a well-known brand, or just a business that requires a lot of infrastructure and land and is nearly impossible to copy.
Companies with large economic moats are essentially immune to competition, giving their executives one less thing to worry about as they attempt to maximize shareholder value.
Investors should be aware that not all economic moats are created equal, with some being “wider” than others. Brand loyalty, for example, can be fickle, thus brand moats aren’t as extensive as, say, land and infrastructure moats, except in a select circumstances. As an investor, you should consider a company’s moat and ask yourself what it would take to compete with it realistically. If you can quickly come up with a solution that doesn’t cost a lot of money, that company most likely doesn’t have a broad moat.
Look for companies with strong cash-flow
A company’s lifeblood is cash flow, not earnings. Earnings can be altered to reflect things like asset price appreciation and other non-essential factors that have no bearing on a company’s capacity to pay you a dividend or make new investments. After all, you invest in a company in order for it to make money so that it can pay you a regular dividend that rises over time. As a result, you should seek out investments that generate a lot of cash flow.
You want to locate companies that create a lot of free cash flow as an investment. Companies with little free cash flow are sensitive to losses, and they may be pushed to make decisions that are undesirable otherwise. Furthermore, even if a corporation has an economic moat, it may not be able to defend it if the need arises if it lacks free cash flow. For example, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is a corporation with a large economic moat but minimal cash flow, and if sales fall or a new competitor emerges, Amazon might be in difficulty.
The bottom line
If you screen your investments for these trends, you should be able to eliminate the market losers from a small portion of your portfolio, and while you won’t be able to pick winners every time, you’ll be in a better position to do so.
When was the last time there was a secular bear market?
In secular bear markets, on the other hand, the underlying trend is wealth loss as the real purchase power of equities declines faster than it rises. Two recent secular bear markets were measured using the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index, the most recent of which occurred between October 2007 and February 2009. Despite a significant dip in stock prices, they finally more than doubled.
Is the secular bull market still going strong?
As a result, the current secular bull market, which started in September 2013, will expire in September 2022. Secular bull markets, on the other hand, often last 16 to 18 years.
Was the Renaissance in Italy secular?
Renaissance poets and intellectuals were able to spend their days doing precisely that thanks to the sponsorship of these wealthy aristocrats. They may enjoy earthly pleasures rather than committing themselves to conventional jobs or the rigors of the monastery. They journeyed around Italy, examining ancient sites and resurrecting Greek and Roman writings.
These classical materials from Ancient Greece and Rome provided considerable insight for Renaissance intellectuals and philosophers. The Italian Renaissance’s overarching philosophical premise was secularism, love of physical beauty, and a specific emphasis on man’s achievements and expression. “Humanism” is the name given to this ideology.
What does a secular bear market entail?
Bear markets might span several years or only a few weeks. A secular bear market can last anywhere from ten to twenty years and is defined by consistently low returns. Within secular bad markets, there may be rallies in which stocks or indexes rise for a time, but the gains are not sustained, and prices retreat to lower levels. On the other hand, a cyclical bear market might run anywhere from a few weeks to many months.
What is the difference between the two types of secular trends?
One of the four main components of the time series is the secular trend. It represents the long-term movement of a time series that can be growing, decreasing, or steady globally.
The secular trend may or may not be linear. Before estimating the secular trend in the last scenario, we should choose the type of function (exponential, squared, logistic, etc.) that is best suited to the observed distribution on the graphical representation of the time series.
Is inflation beneficial to stocks?
With growing inflation, stock market investing is more vital than ever. Prices are growing, putting a greater strain on consumer budgets than in the previous 40 years. It also implies that for many investors, continuing to invest in the stock market for the long term may be more vital than ever.