South Africa’s economy is Africa’s third largest, as well as the continent’s most industrialized, technologically advanced, and diverse economy. South Africa is one of just eight countries in Africa with an upper-middle-income economy. Following the lifting of international sanctions in 1996, South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (nominal) nearly tripled, reaching a high of US$416 billion in 2011. Since then, it has dropped to around $317 billion in 2021. Within two decades of the end of apartheid, foreign exchange reserves expanded from US$3 billion to approximately US$50 billion, resulting in a diversified economy with a growing and sizeable middle class.
Although the natural resource extraction industry remains one of the country’s largest, contributing US$13.5 billion to GDP annually, South Africa’s economy has diversified since the end of apartheid, with a focus on services. The financial sector contributed $41.4 billion to South Africa’s GDP in 2019. South African financial institutions managed around US$1.41 trillion in assets in 2021. As of October 2021, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s entire market capitalization was US$1.28 trillion.
South Africa’s state-owned companies (SOEs) play a vital part in the country’s economy, with the government owning a stake in roughly 700 SOEs in a variety of industries. In 2016, inefficient government bureaucracy, tight labor restrictions, a shortage of skilled personnel for several high-tech businesses, political instability, and corruption were the top five hurdles to conducting business in the country. The banking industry, on the other hand, was evaluated as a significant positive feature of the economy. The country is a member of the G20 and the only African country in the organization.
What will South Africa’s GDP be in 2021?
According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts, South Africa’s GDP is predicted to reach 320.00 USD billion by the end of 2021. According to our econometric models, the GDP of South Africa is expected to trend around 345.00 USD billion in 2022.
Which African country has the highest GDP?
African countries’ GDP in 2021, broken down each country. Nigeria has the greatest gross domestic output in Africa, with a GDP of 514 billion dollars in 2021. Egypt’s GDP was worth 394 billion dollars, making it the continent’s second-highest.
What is the current state of GDP?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What is South Africa’s debt to China?
China owes South Africa an estimated 4% of its annual gross domestic product. China provided many tranches of loans to the country, some of which have generated worries about opaque terms and potential corruption linkages. This includes a contentious $2.5 billion loan from the China Development Bank to South Africa’s state-owned power firm Eskom, which was secured during the Jacob Zuma administration. The Zondo Commission of Inquiry into State Corruption found another $2.5 billion loan to Eskom from Huarong Energy (a private Chinese company) to be improper, prompting Eskom chairperson Jabu Mabuza to declare that the company would not repay the loan due to irregularities and corruption in the loan process.
During Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, the China Development Bank provided an additional R370 billion ($25.8 billion) loan to support a 2018 economic stimulus package. The loan was initially portrayed as a “gift” by the South African government, and the terms of the loan were not made public, causing controversy. The government justified the loan by claiming that the interest rate was not excessive but that due to a confidentiality clause, it could not be published. The opposition Democratic Alliance said the loan put the country in danger of falling into a “debt trap.”
What accounts for South Africa’s low GDP?
South Africa’s political transformation is regarded as one of the century’s most stunning political achievements. Since 1994, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has guided policy until August 2016, when the country held the most competitive local government election in its history, in which the ANC lost majority support in four of the country’s main towns. The ANC has been deposed in Pretoria and Nelson Mandela Bay as a result of coalition accords signed by political parties. The most recent general elections were place in May 2019, with the next local government elections set for November 1, 2021.
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is having a significant influence on South Africa’s economy, resulting in a 6.4 percent contraction in 2020, as the pandemic weighed hard on both foreign demand and containment efforts implemented by the government. With 2 million people living below the poverty line for upper-middle income countries, based on $5.5 per day in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates, PPP, this severe contraction is expected to exacerbate poverty.
After a decade of low development, the South African economy was already in poor shape when the pandemic struck. The economy increased by 0.1 percent in 2019, owing in part to the revival of load shedding due to operational and financial challenges at Eskom, the energy company. The positive global environment (growth of trade partners and commodity prices) will aid South Africa’s economic recovery in 2021. Pre-existing structural impediments, such as electricity shortages, are, nonetheless, still a drag on the medium-term prospects. In 2021, the economy is predicted to increase at a rate of 4.0 percent. Commodity prices will continue to be crucial for South Africa, which is a large net producer of minerals and a net importer of oil. However, boosting investment, notably foreign direct investment, will be critical for accelerating growth and creating jobs.
Since its democratic transition in the mid-1990s, South Africa has achieved significant progress in improving the well-being of its population, but progress has slowed in the last decade. Between 2005 and 2010, the percentage of the population living in poverty in an upper-middle-income country declined from 68 percent to 56 percent, but has since trended slightly upwards to 57 percent in 2015, and is expected to reach 60 percent in 2020.
Progress in eliminating poverty has been hampered by structural problems and insufficient growth, which have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 epidemic. Rising unemployment, which hit an all-time high of 34.4 percent in the second quarter of 2021, is significantly limiting improvements in household welfare. Youths between the ages of 15 and 24 have the greatest unemployment rate, at roughly 64%.
With a consumption expenditure Gini coefficient of 0.63 in 2015, South Africa remains a dual economy with one of the world’s highest and most persistent inequality rates. A legacy of exclusion, as well as the nature of economic growth, which is not pro-poor and does not generate enough jobs, contribute to high inequality. Wealth inequality is much larger, and intergenerational mobility is minimal, implying that inequities are passed down from generation to generation with little change.
Expenditure Approach
The most widely used GDP model is the expenditure approach, which is based on the money spent by various economic participants.
C = consumption, or all private consumer spending in a country’s economy, which includes durable goods (things having a lifespan of more than three years), non-durable products (food and clothing), and services.
G stands for total government spending, which includes salaries, road construction/repair, public schools, and military spending.
I = the total amount of money spent on capital equipment, inventory, and housing by a country.
Income Approach
The total money earned by the goods and services produced is taken into account in this GDP formula.
Total National Income + Sales Taxes + Depreciation + Net Foreign Factor Income = Gross Domestic Product
What factors contribute to low GDP?
Shifts in demand, rising interest rates, government expenditure cuts, and other factors can cause a country’s real GDP to fall. It’s critical for you to understand how this figure changes over time as a business owner so you can alter your sales methods accordingly.
What is a GDP example?
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a metric that measures the value of economic activity within a country. GDP is defined as the sum of the market values, or prices, of all final goods and services produced in an economy over a given period of time. However, there are three key distinctions within this seemingly simple definition:
- GDP is a metric that measures the value of a country’s output in local currency.
- GDP attempts to capture all final commodities and services generated within a country, ensuring that the final monetary value of everything produced in that country is represented in the GDP.
- GDP is determined over a set time period, usually a year or quarter of a year.
Computing GDP
Let’s look at how to calculate GDP now that we know what it is. GDP is the monetary value of all the goods and services generated in an economy, as we all know. Consider Country B, which exclusively produces bananas and backrubs. In the first year, they produce 5 bananas for $1 each and 5 backrubs worth $6 each. This year’s GDP is (quantity of bananas X price of bananas) + (quantity of backrubs X price of backrubs), or (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35 for the country. The equation grows longer as more commodities and services are created. For every good and service produced within the country, GDP = (quantity of A X price of A) + (quantity of B X price of B) + (quantity of whatever X price of whatever).
To compute GDP in the real world, the market values of many products and services must be calculated.
While GDP’s total output is essential, the breakdown of that output into the economy’s big structures is often just as important.
In general, macroeconomists utilize a set of categories to break down an economy into its key components; in this case, GDP is equal to the total of consumer spending, investment, government purchases, and net exports, as represented by the equation:
- The sum of household expenditures on durable commodities, nondurable items, and services is known as consumer spending, or C. Clothing, food, and health care are just a few examples.
- The sum of spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures is referred to as investment (I).
- Machinery, unsold items, and homes are just a few examples.
- G stands for government spending, which is the total amount of money spent on products and services by all government agencies.
- Naval ships and government employee wages are two examples.
- Net exports, or NX, is the difference between foreigners’ spending on local goods and domestic residents’ expenditure on foreign goods.
- Net exports, to put it another way, is the difference between exports and imports.
GDP vs. GNP
GDP is just one technique to measure an economy’s overall output. Another technique is to calculate the Gross National Product, or GNP. As previously stated, GDP is the total value of all products and services generated in a country. GNP narrows the definition slightly: it is the total value of all goods and services generated by permanent residents of a country, regardless of where they are located. The important distinction between GDP and GNP is based on how production is counted by foreigners in a country vs nationals outside of that country. Output by foreigners within a country is counted in the GDP of that country, whereas production by nationals outside of that country is not. Production by foreigners within a country is not considered for GNP, while production by nationals from outside the country is. GNP, on the other hand, is the value of goods and services produced by citizens of a country, whereas GDP is the value of goods and services produced by a country’s citizens.
For example, in Country B (shown in ), nationals produce bananas while foreigners produce backrubs.
Figure 1 shows that Country B’s GDP in year one is (5 X $1) + (5 X $6) = $35.
Because the $30 from backrubs is added to the GNP of the immigrants’ home country, the GNP of country B is (5 X $1) = $5.
The distinction between GDP and GNP is theoretically significant, although it is rarely relevant in practice.
GDP and GNP are usually quite close together because the majority of production within a country is done by its own citizens.
Macroeconomists use GDP as a measure of a country’s total output in general.
Growth Rate of GDP
GDP is a great way to compare the economy at two different times in time. This comparison can then be used to calculate a country’s overall output growth rate.
Subtract 1 from the amount obtained by dividing the GDP for the first year by the GDP for the second year to arrive at the GDP growth rate.
This technique of calculating total output growth has an obvious flaw: both increases in the price of products produced and increases in the quantity of goods produced result in increases in GDP.
As a result, determining whether the volume of output is changing or the price of output is changing from the GDP growth rate is challenging.
Because of this constraint, an increase in GDP does not always suggest that an economy is increasing.
For example, if Country B produced 5 bananas value $1 each and 5 backrubs of $6 each in a year, the GDP would be $35.
If the price of bananas rises to $2 next year and the quantity produced remains constant, Country B’s GDP will be $40.
While the market value of Country B’s goods and services increased, the quantity of goods and services produced remained unchanged.
Because fluctuations in GDP are not always related to economic growth, this factor can make comparing GDP from one year to the next problematic.
Real GDP vs. Nominal GDP
Macroeconomists devised two types of GDP, nominal GDP and real GDP, to deal with the uncertainty inherent in GDP growth rates.
- The total worth of all produced goods and services at current prices is known as nominal GDP. This is the GDP that was discussed in the previous parts. When comparing sheer output with time rather than the value of output, nominal GDP is more informative than real GDP.
- The total worth of all produced goods and services at constant prices is known as real GDP.
- The prices used to calculate real GDP are derived from a certain base year.
- It is possible to compare economic growth from one year to the next in terms of production of goods and services rather than the market value of these products and services by leaving prices constant in the computation of real GDP.
- In this way, real GDP removes the effects of price fluctuations from year-to-year output comparisons.
Choosing a base year is the first step in computing real GDP. Use the GDP equation with year 3 numbers and year 1 prices to calculate real GDP in year 3 using year 1 as the base year. Real GDP equals (10 X $1) + (9 X $6) = $64 in this situation. The nominal GDP in year three is (10 X $2) + (9 X $6) = $74 in comparison. Because the price of bananas climbed from year one to year three, nominal GDP grew faster than actual GDP during this period.
GDP Deflator
Nominal GDP and real GDP convey various aspects of the shift when comparing GDP between years. Nominal GDP takes into account both quantity and price changes. Real GDP, on the other hand, just measures changes in quantity and is unaffected by price fluctuations. Because of this distinction, a third relevant statistic can be calculated once nominal and real GDP have been computed. The GDP deflator is the nominal GDP to real GDP ratio minus one for a particular year. The GDP deflator, in effect, shows how much of the change in GDP from a base year is due to changes in the price level.
Let’s say we want to calculate the GDP deflator for Country B in year 3 using as the base year.
To calculate the GDP deflator, we must first calculate both nominal and real GDP in year 3.
By rearranging the elements in the GDP deflator equation, nominal GDP may be calculated by multiplying real GDP and the GDP deflator.
This equation displays the distinct information provided by each of these output measures.
Changes in quantity are captured by real GDP.
Changes in the price level are captured by the GDP deflator.
Nominal GDP takes into account both price and quantity changes.
You can break down a change in GDP into its component changes in price level and change in quantities produced using nominal GDP, real GDP, and the GDP deflator.
GDP Per Capita
When describing the size and growth of a country’s economy, GDP is the single most helpful number. However, it’s crucial to think about how GDP relates to living standards. After all, a country’s economy is less essential to its residents than the level of living it delivers.
GDP per capita, calculated by dividing GDP by the population size, represents the average amount of GDP received by each individual, and hence serves as an excellent indicator of an economy’s level of life.
The value of GDP per capita is the income of a representative individual because GDP equals national income.
This figure is directly proportional to one’s standard of living.
In general, the higher a country’s GDP per capita, the higher its level of living.
Because of the differences in population between countries, GDP per capita is a more relevant indicator for measuring level of living than GDP.
If a country has a high GDP but a large population, each citizen may have a low income and so live in deplorable circumstances.
A country, on the other hand, may have a moderate GDP but a small population, resulting in a high individual income.
By comparing standard of living among countries using GDP per capita, the problem of GDP division among a country’s residents is avoided.
Is South Africa a wealthier country than Dubai?
Make 5.0 times the amount of money. As of 2017, South Africa’s GDP per capita was $13,600, whereas the United Arab Emirates’ GDP per capita was $68,600.