According to GDP statistics from 2021, China’s most productive provinces and cities are listed below. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP in 2021 was RMB 114.4 trillion (US$17.7 trillion), up around RMB 13 trillion (US$3 trillion) from 2020, or 8.1 percent year-on-year growth (NBS).
What percentage of China’s GDP is 2020?
According to the IMF, China’s GDP (nominal) and GDP (PPP) per capita income ranked 59th and 73rd, respectively, in 2020. In 2020, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) was $15.66 trillion (101.6 trillion yuan).
In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services grew by 6.1 percent, compared to a contraction of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth turned negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
China’s Economy Prior to Reforms
Prior to 1979, China had a centrally planned, or command, economy under Chairman Mao Zedong’s direction. The state directed and controlled a substantial portion of the country’s economic output, setting production objectives, controlling prices, and allocating resources across the sector. All of China’s individual household farms were collectivized into big communes in the 1950s. During the 1960s and 1970s, the central government made large-scale expenditures in physical and human capital to promote rapid industrialization. As a result, by 1978, over three-quarters of industrial output was produced by centrally controlled, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with output targets set centrally. Private businesses and foreign-owned businesses were typically prohibited. The Chinese government’s main goal was to make China’s economy largely self-sufficient. In general, foreign trade was confined to obtaining items that could not be manufactured or obtained in China. The economy was distorted as a result of such practices. There were few incentives for firms, workers, and farmers to become more productive or concerned about the quality of what they produced because most aspects of the economy were managed and run by the central government. As a result, there were no market mechanisms to efficiently allocate resources, and thus there were few incentives for firms, workers, and farmers to become more productive or concerned about the quality of what they produced (since they were mainly focused on production goals set by the government).
China’s real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 6.7 percent from 1953 to 1978, according to Chinese government statistics, though the accuracy of these figures has been questioned by many analysts, who contend that Chinese government officials (especially at the subnational levels) often exaggerated production levels for a variety of political reasons during this time. China’s actual average yearly real GDP growth during this period, according to economist Angus Maddison, was around 4.4 percent. 5 Furthermore, China’s economy experienced significant downturns under Chairman Mao Zedong’s leadership, including during the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1962 (which resulted in a massive famine and the deaths of up to 45 million people)6 and the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976 (which resulted in a massive famine and the deaths of up to 45 million people) (which caused widespread political chaos and greatly disrupted the economy). China’s per capita GDP doubled between 1950 and 1978 on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis,7 a typical indicator of a country’s living standards. However, Chinese living standards declined by 20.3 percent between 1958 and 1962, and by 9.6 percent between 1966 and 1968. (see Figure 1). Furthermore, as seen in Figure 2, the rise in Chinese living standards paled in contrast to those in the West, such as Japan.
The Chinese government decided to break with its Soviet-style economic policies in 1978 (shortly after Chairman Mao’s death in 1976) by gradually reforming the economy according to free market principles and opening up trade and investment with the West, in the hopes of significantly increasing economic growth and raising living standards. “Black cat, white cat, what does it matter what color the cat is as long as it catches mice?” said Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s economic reforms. 8
The Introduction of Economic Reforms
China started a series of economic reforms in 1979. Farmers were given price and ownership incentives by the central government, allowing them to sell a portion of their harvests on the open market. Furthermore, the government developed four special economic zones along the coast to attract international investment, increase exports, and import high-tech products into China. Additional reforms, implemented in stages, aimed to decentralize economic policymaking in a number of areas, including trade. Provincial and municipal governments were given economic control of diverse firms, and they were generally allowed to operate and compete on free market principles rather than under the direction and guidance of state planning. Citizens were also encouraged to create their own enterprises. More coastal cities and regions have been classified as open cities and development zones, allowing them to experiment with free-market reforms and give tax and trade advantages to attract international investment. Furthermore, state pricing controls on a variety of products were gradually phased off. China’s economic growth was also aided by trade liberalization. Trade obstacles were removed, allowing for more competitiveness and FDI inflows. China’s incremental economic reforms aimed to determine which policies had positive economic effects (and which did not) so that they might be replicated across the country, a process Deng Xiaoping famously referred to as “crossing the river by touching the stones.” 9
China’s Economic Growth and Reforms: 1979-the Present
China’s economy has developed significantly quicker since economic reforms were implemented, and the country has avoided serious economic upheavals for the most part. 10 China’s annual real GDP averaged 9.5 percent from 1979 to 2018. (see Figure 3). As a result, China’s economy has been able to double in size in real terms every eight years on average. The worldwide economic slowdown that began in 2008 had a major influence on China’s economy. Early in 2009, Chinese media stated that 20 million migrant workers had returned home after losing their jobs due to the financial crisis, and that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 had slowed to 6.8% year-on-year. The Chinese government responded by enacting a $586 billion stimulus program geared primarily at supporting infrastructure and relaxing monetary policy to boost bank lending. 11 As a result of these efforts, China was able to mitigate the consequences of a dramatic drop in worldwide demand for Chinese goods. China’s real GDP growth averaged 9.7% from 2008 to 2010. However, throughout the next six years, the rate of GDP growth fell, falling from 10.6 percent in 2010 to 6.7 percent in 2016. In 2017, real GDP increased to 6.8%, but fell to 6.6 percent in 2018. (although it rose to 6.8 percent in 2017). China’s real GDP growth will decelerate each year over the following six years, according to the IMF’s April 2019 World Economic Outlook, falling to 5.5 percent in 2024. (Figure 4). 12 Many analysts warn that if the US and China continue to apply punitive economic measures against each other, such as tariff rises resulting from US Section 301 action and Chinese retaliation, China’s economic development may decelerate even further. Increased tariffs on all trade between the US and China, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), could cut China’s real GDP by 1.1 percent in 2021-2022, compared to the OECD’s baseline economic predictions. 13
Figure 4: China’s Real Annual GDP Growth from 2007 to 2018, with Forecasts through 2024
Causes of China’s Economic Growth
Much of China’s quick economic growth is attributed to two key factors: large-scale capital investment (funded by substantial domestic savings and foreign investment) and rapid productivity growth, according to economists. These two elements appear to have worked in concert. Economic changes strengthened the economy’s efficiency, resulting in more output and more resources for new investment.
China has a long history of having a high savings rate. Domestic savings as a percentage of GDP was at 32 percent when reforms began in 1979. During this time, however, the majority of Chinese savings were generated through SOE earnings, which were utilised by the central government for domestic investment. Economic reforms, which included decentralization of economic output, resulted in significant increases in both family and business savings in China. As a result, China has the largest gross savings as a proportion of GDP among major economies. China has been able to support a high level of investment due to its substantial domestic savings. In fact, China’s gross domestic savings greatly outnumber its domestic investment, making it a significant net worldwide lender.
Productivity gains (i.e., advances in efficiency) have been identified as another important element in China’s rapid economic growth by a number of experts. Productivity gains were mostly due to a reallocation of resources to more productive uses, particularly in industries like agriculture, trade, and services that were formerly tightly regulated by the government. Agricultural reforms, for example, increased output, allowing employees to pursue jobs in the more productive manufacturing sector. Non-state companies (such as private corporations) arose as a result of China’s economic decentralization, which tended to pursue more productive activities than centrally controlled SOEs and were more market-oriented and efficient. Furthermore, a larger portion of the economy (mostly the export sector) was subjected to competitive dynamics. Local and provincial governments were given unrestricted authority to form and operate businesses without intervention from the federal government. FDI also introduced new technology and procedures to China, which increased efficiency.
However, as China’s technological development converges with that of major developed countries (i.e., through the adoption of foreign technology), productivity gains and, as a result, real GDP growth may slow significantly, unless China becomes a major center for new technology and innovation and/or implements new comprehensive economic reforms. Several developing economies (most notably in Asia and Latin America) experienced rapid economic development and growth in the 1960s and 1970s by implementing some of the same policies that China has used to develop its economy to date, such as measures to boost exports and promote and protect specific industries. However, at some point throughout their development, some of these countries began to face protracted economic stagnation (or substantially slower growth than prior levels), a situation known as the “middle-income trap” by economists. 14 This means that while several developing (low-income) economies were able to transition to a middle-income economy, they were unable to transition to a high-income economy due to their inability to sustain high levels of productivity gains (in part due to their inability to address structural inefficiencies in the economy). 15 China may be at a comparable fork in the road right now. The World Bank uses a per capita gross national income (GNI) approach to classify economic development levels. 16 According to the World Bank, China transitioned from a low-income to a low-middle-income economy in 1997, and then to an upper-middle-income country in 2010. China’s per capita GNI in 2017 was $8,690, which was 38.7% below the amount required to become a high-income economy. According to the Chinese government, China will be able to cross the high-income level by 2025. It intends to accomplish this, in part, by making innovation a key source of future economic growth. Skeptics argue that China’s innovative development will be difficult to achieve, particularly if it is primarily state-driven and imposes new limitations on foreign companies.
Notes: The red bar represents the level at which China would need to achieve in order to become a high-income economy.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), China’s real GDP growth will drop significantly over the next several decades, eventually catching up to US growth rates by 2037. (U.S. and Chinese real GDP growth rates are both projected at 1.9 percent ). For a few years after that, the EIU expects US GDP growth to outpace China’s (Figure 6). 17
Figure 6: Annual Real GDP Growth Rates in the United States and China from 2010 to 2018 and Projections to 2050
The Chinese government has expressed a desire to shift away from its existing economic model of “rapid growth at any cost” to more “smart” growth, which aims to minimize reliance on energy-intensive and high-polluting industries in favor of high technology, renewable energy, and services. China has also stated that it wishes to achieve more balanced economic growth. (These topics are covered in greater depth later in the report.)
Is China the world’s largest economy?
Smaller than the United States In the most basic scenario, China surpasses the United States in the early 2030s. Other Asian economies have growth ahead of them when they reached mainland China’s current level of development. As a result, China is still on track to replace the United States as the world’s largest economy.
In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
Is China considered developed?
China’s designation as a ‘developing country’ at the World Trade Organization (WTO) has become a sensitive topic, with a number of countries concerned that the upper middle-income country is benefiting from WTO principles that are intended for impoverished countries. Concerns have also been raised about Bangladesh’s ‘least developed nation’ (LDC) status, which it may lose after surpassing India in terms of GDP per capita.
Is the United States owing China money?
How much money is owed to China by the United States? China owns around $1.08 trillion in US debt. 2 This sum is subject to change in the market. When China exchanges Treasury securities or when the prices of those bonds fluctuate, the value will fluctuate.
Is China considered a superpower?
Some have decided that China has met the criteria for superpower status, citing China’s growing political clout and economic leadership as reasons for the country’s enhanced role in the international community. The perceived humiliation of US leadership in failing to prevent its closest allies from joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX, was seen as a paradigm shift or an inflection point to the unipolar world order that dominated post-Cold War international relations. According to University Professor ystein Tunsj, competition between China and the United States will rise, resulting in a narrowing of the gap between them, while the gap between the two countries and the rest of the world’s top ten economies would widen. China is using a combination of its economic might and growing military advancements to pressure, coerce, and change the current world order to accommodate China’s interests at the expense of the US and its allies, according to economics correspondent Peter S. Goodman and Beijing Bureau Chief of China, Jane Perlez.
The Chinese Defense White Paper for 2019 emphasizes the growing strategic competition between China and the United States, but it falls short of the military and ideological confrontation that characterized the Cold War. According to Anthony H. Cordesman, the report was significantly more mild in its assessment of the US than the US stance on Chinese military developments, despite the fact that both China and the US are rival superpowers. According to Cordesman, the report was ultimately a warning that will influence Sino-American relations as China grows stronger in practically every way save its nuclear arsenal.
The United States Studies Centre released a paper on August 19, 2019, claiming that Washington no longer has primacy in the Indo-Pacific. It emphasizes that the US response to China’s role in the Pacific has been greatly distracted by the war on terror; that the US military force in the region has greatly atrophied since 9/11, whereas Beijing has only grown stronger and more capable, to the point where China could now actively challenge the US over the Indo-Pacific. According to the 2021 Asia Power Index, the US continues to lead Asia in military capabilities, cultural influence, resilience, future resources, diplomatic influence, and defense networks, but trails China in two areas: economic capability and economic relationships. The underlying problem in the discussion concerning America’s decline is China’s challenge to the United States for global dominance.