The First Revised Estimate of GDP for 2019-20 is 145.69 lakh crore, while the Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices for 2020-21 is anticipated at 135.13 lakh crore. GDP growth is expected to be -7.3 percent in 2019-20. Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, is expected to reach 197.46 lakh crore in 2020-21, down from the First Revised Estimates of 203.51 lakh crore in 2019-20, indicating a 3.0% decrease.
GVA (Gross Value Added), GNI (Gross National Income), and NNI (Net National Income) are anticipated to be 124.53 lakh crore, 133.85 lakh crore, and 117.46 lakh crore, respectively, at constant prices. These amounts are 179.15 lakh crore, 195.61 lakh crore, and 174.62 lakh crore, respectively, at current prices.
Since 2004-05, figures have been accessible in the new series. Since 2004-05, India’s GDP has increased by 2.47 times.
At current prices, India’s nominal GDP in 2021 is predicted to be $3,050 billion, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (April – 2021). According to this forecast, India will be the world’s sixth largest economy, down from fifth place in 2019. India was ranked 5th highest in 2019 and 17th lowest in 1991. India accounts for 3.25 percent of the global GDP. India’s economic share of the global economy has risen from 1.08 percent in 1993 to 3.27 percent in 2019.
After China and Japan, India is the third-largest Asian country. India accounts for roughly 9% of Asia’s overall GDP (nominal).
According to PPP, India’s GDP will be worth $10,207 billion in 2021, ranking third in the world behind the United States and China. India is responsible for 7.19 percent of global GDP (ppp). India accounts for nearly 16% of Asia’s overall GDP (PPP). India’s GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) is 3.35 times that of the country’s nominal GDP.
In nominal terms, the Indian economy surpassed the $1 billion barrier in 2007 and the $2 billion mark in 2014. In terms of purchasing power parity, India passed the one billion barrier in 1990. Since 1960, when the country’s GDP was 37 million dollars, estimates from the World Bank have been available. The best period for the Indian economy was 2002-19, when the country’s economy grew by 458 percent in 17 years.
What is India’s current GDP?
- As of 2017, India’s nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $2,650,725,335,364 (USD).
- In 2017, India’s real GDP (constant, inflation-adjusted) was $2,660,371,703,953.
- In 2017, the GDP Growth Rate was 6.68 percent, a change of 177,938,082,996 US dollars from 2016, when Real GDP was $2,482,433,620,957.
- In 2017, India’s GDP per capita (with a population of 1,338,676,785 people) was $1,987, up $113 from 2016’s $1,874; this indicates a 6.0 percent increase in GDP per capita.
In percent, what would India’s GDP be in 2021?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating an increase of 5.4 percent,” according to an official release.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a tad lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, due to tepid growth in the manufacturing sector and unexpected de-growth in the construction sector; however, we have decisively emerged from the pandemic slump, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.”
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said, noting that HDFC currently expects the economy to grow 8.2% next fiscal year.
What is the current GDP rate?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
What is the complete form of GDP?
The total monetary or market worth of all finished goods and services produced inside a country’s borders in a certain time period is known as GDP. It serves as a comprehensive scorecard of a country’s economic health because it is a wide measure of entire domestic production.
In India, how is GDP calculated?
- The GDP of India is estimated using two methods: one based on economic activity (at factor cost) and the other based on expenditure (at market prices).
- The performance of eight distinct industries is evaluated using the factor cost technique.
- The expenditure-based method shows how different aspects of the economy, such as trade, investments, and personal consumption, are performing.
In FY 2020, what is India’s current GDP rate?
“Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2020-21 is estimated at 198.01 lakh crore, down from 200.75 lakh crore in 2019-20, suggesting a decrease of 1.4 percent in 2020-21 compared to 6.2 percent increase in 2019-20,” according to the statement.
What is the formula for GDP?
Gross domestic product (GDP) equals private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports Minus imports).
GDP is usually computed using international standards by the country’s official statistical agency. GDP is calculated in the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department. The System of National Accounts, compiled in 1993 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is the international standard for estimating GDP.
Who created the GDP?
Simon Kuznets, the originator of GDP, was confident that his metric had nothing to do with happiness. However, we frequently mix up the two. GNP has been the go-to metric for the global elite for the past seven decades. Fast growth, as measured by GDP, has long been regarded as a measure of achievement in and of itself, rather than as a means to an end, regardless of how the benefits of that growth are spent or distributed. If something has to give in order to get GDP growing, whether it’s clean air, public services, or fair opportunity, so be it.
What is the difference between the two types of economics?
- Individually and collectively, economics is the study of how individuals allocate scarce resources for production, distribution, and consumption.
- Microeconomics, which studies individual consumers and producers, and macroeconomics, which studies entire economies on a regional, national, or worldwide scale, are the two basic forms of economics.
- Economics is particularly concerned with production and exchange efficiency, and it use models and assumptions to figure out how to design incentives and policies that optimize efficiency.
- Numerous economic indicators, such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), are developed and published by economists (CPI).
How can India boost its GDP?
As a result, India appears to be on track to earn the title of world’s fastest-growing big economy this year and keep it next year.
Keep in mind that, although the Chinese economy grew by 2.3 percent in FY21, the Indian economy shrank by 7.3 percent as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
China’s economic growth slowed more than predicted in the third quarter, owing to a failing property industry that is facing stricter policy measures and an impending energy crisis.
According to The Economist, China’s economic growth is currently being hampered by a “triple shock from energy, property, and the epidemic.”
The difficulties of Evergrande, the insolvent Chinese property giant, are already well-known around the world.
Another stumbling block is the Chinese government’s draconian controls on the country’s tech firms.
India’s growth forecasts for FY22 have been kept at 9.5 percent by the Reserve Bank of India and Standard & Poor’s.
Then there’s the ongoing export boom, which is accompanied by increased tax revenue and lower inflation.
Another good area is the decreasing amount of bad debt burdening the financial system.
Let’s not forget about the soaring corporate earnings, the upbeat industrial production figures, and the ever-increasing number of unicorns.
There are also government initiatives such as Gati Shakti and asset monetisation that are projected to gain traction.
However, significant worries remain about whether high development can be continued in the medium future.
If the forecasts for FY22 and FY23 come true, India will experience the high growth rates of the 2000s once more. However, much work remains to be done if that pace is to be maintained in the future.