The global GDP is $80,934,771,028,340 dollars (nominal, 2017).
What is the GDP forecast for 2020?
Retail and wholesale trade industries led the increase in private inventory investment. The largest contributor to retail was inventory investment by automobile dealers. Increases in both products and services contributed to the increase in exports. Consumer products, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages were the biggest contributions to the growth in goods exports. Travel was the driving force behind the increase in service exports. The rise in PCE was mostly due to an increase in services, with health care, recreation, and transportation accounting for the majority of the increase. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was mostly due to a rise in intellectual property items, which was partially offset by a drop in structures.
The reduction in federal spending was mostly due to lower defense spending on intermediate goods and services. State and local government spending fell as a result of lower consumption (driven by state and local government employee remuneration, particularly education) and gross investment (led by new educational structures). The rise in imports was mostly due to a rise in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods).
After gaining 2.3 percent in the third quarter, real GDP increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP was primarily due to an increase in exports, as well as increases in private inventory investment and PCE, as well as smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending, which were partially offset by a decrease in state and local government spending. Imports have increased.
In the fourth quarter, current dollar GDP climbed 14.3% on an annual basis, or $790.1 billion, to $23.99 trillion. GDP climbed by 8.4%, or $461.3 billion, in the third quarter (table 1 and table 3).
In the fourth quarter, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed 6.9%, compared to 5.6 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index climbed by 6.5 percent, compared to a 5.3 percent gain in the previous quarter. The PCE price index grew 4.9 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 4.6 percent overall.
Personal Income
In the fourth quarter, current-dollar personal income climbed by $106.3 billion, compared to $127.9 billion in the third quarter. Increases in compensation (driven by private earnings and salaries), personal income receipts on assets, and rental income partially offset a decline in personal current transfer receipts (particularly, government social assistance) (table 8). Following the end of pandemic-related unemployment programs, the fall in government social benefits was more than offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.
In the fourth quarter, disposable personal income grew $14.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, compared to $36.7 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income fell 5.8%, compared to a 4.3 percent drop in the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter, personal savings totaled $1.34 trillion, compared to $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the personal saving rate (savings as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 7.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in the third quarter.
GDP for 2021
In 2021, real GDP climbed 5.7 percent (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), compared to a 3.4 percent fall in 2020. (table 1). In 2021, all major subcomponents of real GDP increased, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports have risen (table 2).
PCE increased as both products and services increased in value. “Other” nondurable items (including games and toys as well as medications), apparel and footwear, and recreational goods and automobiles were the major contributors within goods. Food services and accommodations, as well as health care, were the most significant contributors to services. Increases in equipment (dominated by information processing equipment) and intellectual property items (driven by software as well as research and development) partially offset a reduction in structures in nonresidential fixed investment (widespread across most categories). The rise in exports was due to an increase in products (mostly non-automotive capital goods), which was somewhat offset by a drop in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment was primarily due to the development of new single-family homes. An increase in wholesale commerce led to an increase in private inventory investment (mainly in durable goods industries).
In 2021, current-dollar GDP expanded by 10.0 percent, or $2.10 trillion, to $22.99 trillion, compared to 2.2 percent, or $478.9 billion, in 2020. (tables 1 and 3).
In 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases climbed by 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020. (table 4). Similarly, the PCE price index grew 3.9 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. The PCE price index climbed 3.3 percent excluding food and energy expenses, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Real GDP rose 5.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 6), compared to a 2.3 percent fall from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020.
From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the price index for gross domestic purchases grew 5.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The PCE price index climbed by 5.5 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the year. The PCE price index increased 4.6 percent excluding food and energy, compared to 1.4 percent overall.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
A Technical Note that is issued with the news release on BEA’s website contains information on the source data and major assumptions utilized in the advance estimate. Each version comes with a thorough “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file. Refer to the “Additional Details” section below for information on GDP updates.
In 2021, which country will have the greatest GDP?
What are the world’s largest economies? According to the International Monetary Fund, the following countries have the greatest nominal GDP in the world:
Is China wealthier than the United States?
In both nominal and PPP terms, the United States and China are the world’s two largest economies. The United States leads in nominal terms, while China has led in PPP terms since 2017, when it overtook the United States. In nominal and PPP terms, both countries account for 41.89 percent and 34.75 percent of global GDP in 2021, respectively. Both countries have much bigger GDPs than the third-placed countries, Japan (nominal) and India (PPP). As a result, only these two are competing for first place.
According to IMF forecasts for 2021, the United States will be ahead by $6,033 billion, or 1.36 times, in terms of exchange rates. On a purchasing power parity measure, China’s GDP is worth $3,982 billion dollars, or 1.18 times that of the United States. According to World Bank estimates, China’s GDP was approximately 11% of that of the United States in 1960, but is now 67 percent in 2019.
Due to China’s enormous population, which is more than four times that of the United States, the gap in per capita income between the two countries is enormous. In nominal and PPP terms, the United States’ per capita income is 5.78 and 3.61 times that of China, respectively. The United States is the world’s fifth richest country, while China is ranked 63rd. On a PPP basis, the United States ranks eighth, while China ranks 76th.
China’s GDP growth rate reaches a high of 19.30 percent in 1970 and a low of -27.27 percent in 1961. Between 1961 and 2019, China experienced a 22-year growth rate of greater than 10%. In 1984, the US hit an all-time high of 7.24 percent, while in 2009, it hit a new low of -2.54 percent. For the first time in eight years, the United States’ GDP growth rate was negative. In the last four years, China has experienced negative growth.
China is ahead of the United States in the agriculture and industry sectors, according to the World Factbook. Agriculture output in the United States is only 17.58 percent of China’s, whereas industry output is 77.58 percent. The US services industry is more than double that of China.
What accounts for India’s low GDP?
There are two things that stand out. The Indian economy began to revive in March 2013 more than a year before the current government took office after a period of contraction following the Global Financial Crisis.
But, more importantly, since the third quarter of 2016-17 (October to December), this recovery has transformed into a secular slowing of growth. While the RBI did not declare so, many experts believe the government’s move to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency overnight on November 8, 2016, was the catalyst that sent the country’s GDP into a tailspin.
The GDP growth rate steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to around 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit the country, as the ripples of demonetisation and a poorly designed and hastily implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) spread through an economy already struggling with massive bad loans in the banking system.
PM Modi voiced hope in January 2020, when GDP growth fell to a 42-year low (in terms of nominal GDP), saying: “The Indian economy’s high absorbent capacity demonstrates the strength of the country’s foundations and its ability to recover.”
The foundations of the Indian economy were already weak in January last year well before the outbreak as an examination of key factors shows. For example, in the recent past (Chart 2), India’s GDP growth trend mirrored an exponential development pattern “Even before Covid-19 came the market, there was a “inverted V.”
What is India’s current GDP?
- As of 2017, India’s nominal (current) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $2,650,725,335,364 (USD).
- In 2017, India’s real GDP (constant, inflation-adjusted) was $2,660,371,703,953.
- In 2017, the GDP Growth Rate was 6.68 percent, a change of 177,938,082,996 US dollars from 2016, when Real GDP was $2,482,433,620,957.
- In 2017, India’s GDP per capita (with a population of 1,338,676,785 people) was $1,987, up $113 from 2016’s $1,874; this indicates a 6.0 percent increase in GDP per capita.
Is a high GDP beneficial?
GDP is significant because it provides information on the size and performance of an economy. The pace of increase in real GDP is frequently used as a gauge of the economy’s overall health. An increase in real GDP is viewed as a sign that the economy is performing well in general.
What accounts for Japan’s high GDP?
Japan has one of the world’s largest and most sophisticated economies. It boasts a highly educated and hardworking workforce, as well as a huge and affluent population, making it one of the world’s largest consumer marketplaces. From 1968 to 2010, Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest (after the United States), until China overtook it. Its GDP was expected to be USD 4.7 trillion in 2016, and its population of 126.9 million has a high quality of life, with a per capita GDP of slightly under USD 40,000 in 2015.
Japan was one of the first Asian countries to ascend the value chain from inexpensive textiles to advanced manufacturing and services, which now account for the bulk of Japan’s GDP and employment, thanks to its extraordinary economic recovery from the ashes of World War II. Agriculture and other primary industries account for under 1% of GDP.
Japan had one of the world’s strongest economic growth rates from the 1960s to the 1980s. This expansion was fueled by:
- Access to cutting-edge technologies and major research and development funding
- A vast domestic market of discriminating consumers has given Japanese companies a competitive advantage in terms of scale.
Manufacturing has been the most notable and well-known aspect of Japan’s economic development. Japan is now a global leader in the production of electrical and electronic goods, automobiles, ships, machine tools, optical and precision equipment, machinery, and chemicals. However, in recent years, Japan has given some manufacturing economic advantage to China, the Republic of Korea, and other manufacturing economies. To some extent, Japanese companies have offset this tendency by shifting manufacturing production to low-cost countries. Japan’s services industry, which includes financial services, now accounts for over 75% of the country’s GDP. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is one of the most important financial centers in the world.
With exports accounting for roughly 16% of GDP, international trade plays a key role in the Japanese economy. Vehicles, machinery, and manufactured items are among the most important exports. The United States (20.2%), China (17.5%), and the Republic of Korea (17.5%) were Japan’s top export destinations in 2015-16. (7 per cent). Export growth is sluggish, despite a cheaper yen as a result of stimulus measures.
Japan’s natural resources are limited, and its agriculture sector is strictly regulated. Mineral fuels, machinery, and food are among Japan’s most important imports. China (25.6%), the United States (10.9%), and Australia (10.9%) were the top three suppliers of these items in 2015. (5.6 per cent). Recent trade and foreign investment developments in Japan have shown a significantly stronger involvement with China, which in 2008 surpassed the United States as Japan’s largest trading partner.
Recent economic changes and trade liberalization, aiming at making the economy more open and flexible, will be critical in assisting Japan in dealing with its problems. Prime Minister Abe has pursued a reformist program, called ‘Abenomics,’ since his election victory in December 2012, adopting fiscal and monetary expansion as well as parts of structural reform that could liberalize the Japanese economy.
Japan’s population is rapidly aging, reducing the size of the workforce and tax revenues while increasing demands on health and social spending. Reforming the labor market to increase participation is one of the strategies being attempted to combat this trend. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ‘Three Arrows’ economic revitalisation strategy of monetary easing, ‘flexible’ fiscal policy, and structural reform propelled Japan’s growth to new heights in 2013.
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In 2021, what would India’s GDP be?
In its second advance estimates of national accounts released on Monday, the National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted the country’s growth for 2021-22 at 8.9%, slightly lower than the 9.2% estimated in its first advance estimates released in January.
Furthermore, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reduced its estimates of GDP contraction for the coronavirus pandemic-affected last fiscal year (2020-21) to 6.6 percent. The previous projection was for a 7.3% decrease.
In April-June 2020, the Indian economy contracted 23.8 percent, and in July-September 2020, it contracted 6.6 percent.
“While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in Q3 FY2022, the NSO’s initial estimates are far below our expectations (6.2 percent for GDP), with a marginal increase in manufacturing and a contraction in construction that is surprising given the heavy rains in the southern states,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated at Rs 38.22 trillion in Q3 of 2021-22, up from Rs 36.26 trillion in Q3 of 2020-21, indicating a growth of 5.4 percent,” according to an official statement.
According to the announcement, real GDP (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is expected to reach Rs 147.72 trillion in 2021-22, up from Rs 135.58 trillion in the first updated estimate announced on January 31, 2022.
GDP growth is expected to be 8.9% in 2021-22, compared to a decline of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
In terms of value, GDP in October-December 2021-22 was Rs 38,22,159 crore, up from Rs 36,22,220 crore in the same period of 2020-21.
According to NSO data, the manufacturing sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth remained nearly steady at 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22, compared to 8.4 percent a year ago.
GVA growth in the farm sector was weak in the third quarter, at 2.6 percent, compared to 4.1 percent a year before.
GVA in the construction sector decreased by 2.8%, compared to 6.6% rise a year ago.
The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment grew by 3.7 percent in the third quarter of current fiscal year, compared to 1.5 percent growth the previous year.
Similarly, trade, hotel, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services expanded by 6.1 percent, compared to a decline of 10.1 percent a year ago.
In Q3 FY22, financial, real estate, and professional services growth was 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent in Q3 FY21.
During the quarter under examination, public administration, defense, and other services expanded by 16.8%, compared to a decrease of 2.9 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s economy grew by 4% between October and December of 2021.
“India’s GDP growth for Q3FY22 was a touch lower than our forecast of 5.7 percent, as the manufacturing sector grew slowly and the construction industry experienced unanticipated de-growth.” We have, however, decisively emerged from the pandemic recession, with all sectors of the economy showing signs of recovery.
“Going ahead, unlock trade will help growth in Q4FY22, as most governments have eliminated pandemic-related limitations, but weak rural demand and geopolitical shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impair global growth and supply chains.” The impending pass-through of higher oil and gas costs could affect domestic demand mood, according to Elara Capital economist Garima Kapoor.
“Strong growth in the services sector and a pick-up in private final consumption expenditure drove India’s real GDP growth to 5.4 percent in Q3.” While agriculture’s growth slowed in Q3, the construction sector’s growth became negative.
“On the plus side, actual expenditure levels in both the private and public sectors are greater than they were before the pandemic.
“Given the encouraging trends in government revenues and spending until January 2022, as well as the upward revision in the nominal GDP growth rate for FY22, the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for FY22 may come out better than what the (federal) budget projected,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist, L&T Financial Holdings.
“The growth number is pretty disappointing,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist of Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Securities, said, citing weaker rural consumer demand and investments as reasons.
After crude prices soared beyond $100 a barrel, India, which imports virtually all of its oil, might face a wider trade imbalance, a weaker rupee, and greater inflation, with a knock to GDP considered as the main concern.
“We believe the fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will remain, given the geopolitical volatility and crude oil prices,” Hajra added.
According to Nomura, a 10% increase in oil prices would shave 0.2 percentage points off India’s GDP growth while adding 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to retail inflation.
Widening sanctions against Russia are likely to have a ripple impact on India, according to Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
“We see a 20-30 basis point downside risk to our base predictions,” she said. For the time being, HDFC expects the GDP to rise 8.2% in the coming fiscal year.
Is Russia more prosperous than India?
India vs. Russia: A Comparison of Economic Indicators At a GDP of $2.7 trillion, India is the world’s seventh largest economy, while Russia ranks 11th with $1.7 trillion. India and Russia were rated 6th and 162nd in terms of GDP 5-year average growth and GDP per capita, respectively.